#25 California-Davis (10-12)

avg: 1719.95  •  sd: 68.89  •  top 16/20: 25.1%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
50 California-Santa Cruz Win 11-6 1984.34 Jan 28th Santa Barbara Invitational 2023
42 Wisconsin Win 12-8 1947.64 Jan 28th Santa Barbara Invitational 2023
17 California-San Diego Loss 7-11 1357.68 Jan 28th Santa Barbara Invitational 2023
8 Stanford Loss 6-12 1654.02 Jan 29th Santa Barbara Invitational 2023
31 California Win 9-8 1782.96 Jan 29th Santa Barbara Invitational 2023
15 Victoria Loss 5-9 1323.58 Jan 29th Santa Barbara Invitational 2023
3 Colorado** Loss 4-10 1867.86 Ignored Feb 18th President’s Day Invite
53 Cal Poly-SLO Win 12-4 1980.02 Feb 18th President’s Day Invite
31 California Win 12-5 2257.96 Feb 18th President’s Day Invite
74 Utah Win 11-4 1824.4 Feb 18th President’s Day Invite
87 Southern California** Win 9-3 1686.09 Ignored Feb 19th President’s Day Invite
8 Stanford Loss 2-11 1633.33 Feb 19th President’s Day Invite
18 Colorado State Win 11-8 2177.11 Feb 19th President’s Day Invite
12 California-Santa Barbara Loss 4-11 1458.42 Feb 19th President’s Day Invite
28 Duke Win 11-8 2047.65 Feb 20th President’s Day Invite
17 California-San Diego Loss 6-7 1699.58 Feb 20th President’s Day Invite
2 British Columbia** Loss 5-13 1948.3 Ignored Mar 11th Stanford Invite Womens
4 Tufts Loss 5-10 1852.54 Mar 11th Stanford Invite Womens
29 UCLA Loss 5-6 1539.62 Mar 11th Stanford Invite Womens
39 Santa Clara Loss 4-8 974.55 Mar 12th Stanford Invite Womens
29 UCLA Loss 4-8 1099.81 Mar 12th Stanford Invite Womens
17 California-San Diego Win 5-4 1949.58 Mar 12th Stanford Invite Womens
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)