#69 Case Western Reserve (4-9)

avg: 1250.46  •  sd: 88.45  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
47 Florida Win 11-7 1934.79 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up1
5 Vermont** Loss 2-15 1773.3 Ignored Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up1
13 Pittsburgh** Loss 3-15 1333.35 Ignored Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up1
21 North Carolina State Loss 7-12 1235.8 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up1
60 Ohio Loss 6-9 880.77 Feb 12th Queen City Tune Up1
62 William & Mary Loss 8-9 1152.48 Feb 12th Queen City Tune Up1
129 Maryland Win 14-5 1376.19 Feb 25th Commonwealth Cup Weekend2 2023
99 MIT Win 15-10 1436.92 Feb 25th Commonwealth Cup Weekend2 2023
44 Pennsylvania Loss 4-15 884.31 Feb 25th Commonwealth Cup Weekend2 2023
30 South Carolina Loss 1-13 1060.8 Feb 26th Commonwealth Cup Weekend2 2023
10 Northeastern** Loss 1-13 1534.33 Ignored Feb 26th Commonwealth Cup Weekend2 2023
89 Columbia Win 12-8 1519.81 Feb 26th Commonwealth Cup Weekend2 2023
35 Michigan Loss 3-13 1019.57 Feb 26th Commonwealth Cup Weekend2 2023
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)