#32 Virginia (11-7)

avg: 1679.87  •  sd: 69.96  •  top 16/20: 0.2%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
45 Elon Win 13-12 1730.05 Feb 1st Carolina Kickoff mens 2025
88 Georgetown Win 13-12 1433.67 Feb 1st Carolina Kickoff mens 2025
21 Georgia Tech Win 13-10 2182.94 Feb 1st Carolina Kickoff mens 2025
3 North Carolina Loss 8-15 1641.31 Feb 2nd Carolina Kickoff mens 2025
81 North Carolina-Charlotte Win 12-10 1560.38 Feb 2nd Carolina Kickoff mens 2025
48 Maryland Loss 13-15 1351.49 Feb 2nd Carolina Kickoff mens 2025
97 Duke Win 13-8 1769.58 Feb 22nd Easterns Qualifier 2025
183 Kennesaw State** Win 13-3 1490.74 Ignored Feb 22nd Easterns Qualifier 2025
47 McGill Loss 10-12 1353.32 Feb 22nd Easterns Qualifier 2025
84 Ohio State Win 13-9 1738.24 Feb 22nd Easterns Qualifier 2025
44 Emory Win 15-13 1822.37 Feb 23rd Easterns Qualifier 2025
64 James Madison Loss 13-14 1332.38 Feb 23rd Easterns Qualifier 2025
52 William & Mary Win 12-9 1896.85 Feb 23rd Easterns Qualifier 2025
41 California-San Diego Loss 11-13 1392.63 Mar 22nd Northwest Challenge 2025 mens
26 Utah Loss 11-15 1414.41 Mar 22nd Northwest Challenge 2025 mens
7 Washington Win 15-14 2241.13 Mar 22nd Northwest Challenge 2025 mens
55 UCLA Loss 13-14 1410.24 Mar 23rd Northwest Challenge 2025 mens
40 Wisconsin Win 15-8 2192.81 Mar 23rd Northwest Challenge 2025 mens
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)