Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2024-25 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
1 Atlantic Coast 1.09 North Carolina 100.00%,   South Carolina 9.00%,   Virginia 0.20%,   North Carolina-Wilmington 0.10%,  
1 Great Lakes 0.02 Michigan 1.40%,   Chicago 0.40%,  
1 Metro East 0.3 Ottawa 30.20%,  
3 New England 3.86 Massachusetts 100.00%,   Brown 89.50%,   Northeastern 73.40%,   Tufts 73.10%,   Vermont 50.20%,  
1 North Central 1 Carleton College 100.00%,   Minnesota 0.40%,  
6 Northwest 6.08 Oregon 100.00%,   Washington 100.00%,   Brigham Young 100.00%,   Oregon State 99.70%,   British Columbia 97.00%,   Victoria 44.40%,   Western Washington 43.00%,   Utah 15.80%,   Utah Valley 8.30%,  
1 Ohio Valley 0.35 Penn State 29.00%,   Pittsburgh 5.60%,   Cincinnati 0.20%,  
2 South Central 2.93 Colorado 100.00%,   Texas 98.10%,   Washington University 95.30%,  
1 Southeast 1.39 Georgia 72.70%,   Georgia Tech 49.70%,   Ave Maria 16.20%,  
3 Southwest 2.97 California-Santa Cruz 100.00%,   Cal Poly-SLO 100.00%,   California 97.10%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region AC GL ME NE NC NW OV SC SE SW
Initial 1.093 0.018 0.302 3.862 1.004 6.082 0.348 2.934 1.386 2.971
Autos (all @ 1) 0.093 -0.982 -0.698 2.862 0.004 5.082 -0.652 1.934 0.386 1.971
Northwest (@ 2) 0.093 -0.982 -0.698 2.862 0.004 4.082 -0.652 1.934 0.386 1.971
Northwest (@ 3) 0.093 -0.982 -0.698 2.862 0.004 3.082 -0.652 1.934 0.386 1.971
Northwest (@ 4) 0.093 -0.982 -0.698 2.862 0.004 2.082 -0.652 1.934 0.386 1.971
New England (@ 2) 0.093 -0.982 -0.698 1.862 0.004 2.082 -0.652 1.934 0.386 1.971
Northwest (@ 5) 0.093 -0.982 -0.698 1.862 0.004 1.082 -0.652 1.934 0.386 1.971
Southwest (@ 2) 0.093 -0.982 -0.698 1.862 0.004 1.082 -0.652 1.934 0.386 0.971
South Central (@ 2) 0.093 -0.982 -0.698 1.862 0.004 1.082 -0.652 0.934 0.386 0.971
New England (@ 3) 0.093 -0.982 -0.698 0.862 0.004 1.082 -0.652 0.934 0.386 0.971
Northwest (@ 6) 0.093 -0.982 -0.698 0.862 0.004 0.082 -0.652 0.934 0.386 0.971
Southwest (@ 3) 0.093 -0.982 -0.698 0.862 0.004 0.082 -0.652 0.934 0.386 -0.029
Total 1 1 1 3 1 6 1 2 1 3

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 Massachusetts 1 2259.1 48.65 1/8 18-4
2 Colorado 1 2232.88 60.76 1/9 18-4
3 North Carolina 1 2206.12 46.8 1/8 22-3
4 Carleton College 1 2203.31 45.35 1/10 19-3
5 Oregon 1 2193.64 76.02 1/18 24-4
6 Cal Poly-SLO 1 2127.62 47.92 1/14 21-6
7 Washington 1 2116.13 61.68 1/16 15-6
8 Brigham Young 1 2070.56 45.56 2/20 18-2
9 California-Santa Cruz 1 2021.18 44.13 4/21 17-8
10 Oregon State 0.997 1981.68 39.77 6/22 19-10
11 Texas 0.981 1970.85 54.7 5/27 15-7
12 California 0.971 1969.23 55.15 6/27 17-11
13 British Columbia 0.97 1971.97 59.84 4/29 11-6
14 Washington University 0.953 1951.63 59.54 5/31 14-6
15 Brown 0.895 1919.73 51.93 8/28 14-8
16 Northeastern 0.734 1895.7 59.18 7/43 10-13
17 Tufts 0.731 1897.01 68.31 4/32 13-6
18 Georgia 0.727 1892.49 57.11 8/32 11-10
19 Vermont 0.502 1858.08 61.66 8/42 8-14
20 Georgia Tech 0.497 1854.79 58.88 7/35 12-8
21 Victoria 0.444 1848.42 69.48 8/37 11-10
22 Western Washington 0.43 1849.96 49.12 12/35 12-8
23 Ottawa 0.302 1833.85 47.99 10/34 6-0
24 Penn State 0.29 1827.38 54.88 11/45 8-11
25 Ave Maria 0.162 1723.9 136.56 6/93 12-0
26 Utah 0.158 1795.58 66.19 11/45 10-9
27 South Carolina 0.09 1779.6 57.27 15/48 15-3
28 Utah Valley 0.083 1752.25 82.41 8/64 7-5
29 Pittsburgh 0.056 1764.73 58.68 12/51 8-14
30 Michigan 0.014 1652.78 90.73 16/72 7-6
31 Minnesota 0.004 1713.47 54.52 19/50 8-14
32 Chicago 0.004 1654.33 76.88 20/71 11-8
33 Virginia 0.002 1679.87 69.96 14/62 11-7
34 Cincinnati 0.002 1630.04 72.64 20/85 11-2
35 North Carolina-Wilmington 0.001 1635.07 61.54 21/66 13-12
36 Davenport 0 1980.95 96.38 1/32 15-1
37 California-Santa Barbara 0 1660.93 40.2 26/54 9-17
38 Lewis & Clark 0 1659.3 97.5 13/88 17-2
39 Utah State 0 1632.62 58.77 27/65 5-9
40 Wisconsin 0 1628.01 66.1 23/67 11-11
41 California-San Diego 0 1621.47 49.44 26/67 8-16
42 Stanford 0 1617.36 38.33 29/62 17-15
43 Virginia Tech 0 1612.2 47.68 27/64 14-8
44 Emory 0 1608.19 64.23 23/71 12-10
45 Elon 0 1605.05 46.32 26/68 20-5
46 Middlebury 0 1597.79 53.66 26/67 14-5
47 McGill 0 1591.44 67.52 26/79 8-7
48 Maryland 0 1565.66 60.47 28/80 13-5
49 North Carolina State 0 1564.8 51.62 31/72 13-11
50 Colorado State 0 1561.63 65.86 29/77 5-13
51 Purdue 0 1555.86 71.81 28/83 11-9
52 William & Mary 0 1551.49 61.11 30/79 16-9
53 Whitman 0 1548.29 84.91 16/86 8-4
54 Carleton College-CHOP 0 1538.06 82.2 27/103 13-4
55 UCLA 0 1535.24 67.54 28/92 9-13
56 Cornell 0 1523.94 53.73 33/79 14-7
57 Illinois 0 1515.42 56.63 35/82 13-6
58 Grand Canyon 0 1500.66 111.57 23/136 11-1
59 Michigan State 0 1486.35 72.76 32/96 12-5
60 Alabama-Huntsville 0 1464.35 74.11 33/113 4-8
61 Tulane 0 1462.36 64.41 34/98 5-9
62 Notre Dame 0 1459.46 75.18 33/110 10-10
63 James Madison 0 1457.38 52.53 37/101 12-13
64 Tennessee 0 1453.54 53.06 44/88 8-10
65 Dartmouth 0 1452.25 57.21 39/104 10-11
66 Indiana 0 1443.25 61 40/99 12-8
67 Wesleyan 0 1431.31 103.3 31/124 7-6
68 Auburn 0 1428.39 76.77 35/113 8-8
69 Franciscan 0 1410.69 102.39 33/140 10-3
70 Case Western Reserve 0 1405.06 78.42 35/154 11-7
71 Southern Illinois-Edwardsville 0 1396.61 84.69 29/124 14-6
72 Williams 0 1385.1 69.61 48/113 11-7
73 Oklahoma Christian 0 1378.09 72.18 42/124 11-8
74 Carnegie Mellon 0 1371.25 55.87 47/108 10-8
75 Colorado College 0 1369.71 73.73 46/136 13-6
76 Iowa State 0 1350.03 69.74 49/124 15-6
77 Richmond 0 1348.03 54.17 56/120 11-10
78 Florida 0 1347.88 50.82 58/112 7-8
79 Rochester 0 1340.49 69.48 51/129 9-4
80 North Carolina-Charlotte 0 1322.26 80.72 46/144 7-11
81 St Olaf 0 1321 79.19 42/142 17-8
82 SUNY-Buffalo 0 1320.93 98.32 42/154 12-6
83 Ohio State 0 1319.67 75.53 55/144 8-12
84 Southern California 0 1317.15 71.82 52/133 14-9
85 Marquette 0 1312.53 98.53 32/187 6-1
86 Temple 0 1310.92 65.66 56/133 8-12
87 Georgetown 0 1308.67 66.94 53/133 7-12
88 North Carolina-Asheville 0 1302.12 83.49 47/140 8-4
89 Missouri S&T 0 1295.31 74.48 47/146 14-6
90 Cal Poly-SLO-B 0 1290.22 76.5 47/147 8-5
91 Cal Poly-CCWR 0 1284.01 87.45 40/166 4-1
92 Colorado-B 0 1280.27 98.28 40/167 14-3
93 Tennessee-Chattanooga 0 1279.56 76.9 55/151 12-5
94 Claremont 0 1275.64 100.09 43/183 8-4
95 Appalachian State 0 1274.42 67.16 59/145 14-12
96 Duke 0 1273.42 64.74 62/136 11-9
97 Boston College 0 1271.7 84.79 56/161 8-6
98 Oberlin 0 1266.1 59.55 61/150 12-3
99 Missouri 0 1265.35 73.19 51/165 12-9
100 Yale 0 1262.48 82.81 58/155 10-9
101 Syracuse 0 1260.39 74.52 49/151 12-12
102 Texas A&M 0 1240.66 67.14 66/154 11-15
103 Alabama 0 1238.96 62.49 63/152 14-10
104 Liberty 0 1232.91 78.96 61/167 13-5
105 San Diego State 0 1230.08 59.46 70/155 17-7
106 Iowa 0 1222.36 82.75 62/176 15-5
107 Columbia 0 1219.19 58.26 72/152 10-8
108 Gonzaga 0 1217.66 63 69/156 4-7
109 Berry 0 1207.55 66.15 69/157 15-3
110 San Jose State 0 1206.71 47.48 70/145 15-7
111 Bowdoin 0 1204.58 66.93 68/153 18-2
112 Lehigh 0 1204.24 79.95 62/167 10-7
113 California-Irvine 0 1197.3 92.96 57/182 5-6
114 Vermont-B 0 1194.71 75.18 63/177 12-10
115 West Chester 0 1192.17 71.33 64/170 14-5
116 Colorado Mines 0 1189.25 63.55 78/171 12-6
117 British Columbia -B 0 1186.01 65.59 74/165 7-6
118 Central Florida 0 1181.39 62.49 68/165 9-9
119 Connecticut 0 1179.02 64.82 75/165 10-8
120 Simon Fraser 0 1170.02 160.61 29/222 3-4
121 Boston University 0 1167.78 76.93 66/193 11-7
122 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0 1146.99 63.81 71/165 9-8
123 Denver 0 1146.36 74.71 76/174 12-6
124 Puget Sound 0 1140.61 64.37 85/170 8-7
125 Maine 0 1138.09 77.72 66/191 8-3
126 Clemson 0 1134.14 67.27 77/167 12-5
127 SUNY-Binghamton 0 1128.07 67.56 84/179 7-13
128 Arizona State 0 1124.63 58.12 87/168 4-8
129 Charleston 0 1123.67 96.5 70/204 9-2
130 Pittsburgh-B 0 1121.3 50.48 92/168 12-7
131 Rutgers 0 1116.55 105.56 61/209 8-9
132 Lipscomb 0 1114.86 75.29 82/182 7-7
133 South Florida 0 1112.4 58.43 93/178 5-10
134 Mississippi State 0 1111.28 46.35 98/169 19-13
135 North Texas 0 1110.47 70.51 83/178 13-6
136 California-Santa Cruz-B 0 1094.14 57.07 92/180 11-5
137 RIT 0 1092.92 58.75 97/180 10-10
138 Florida State 0 1083.69 61.27 81/178 9-14
139 Santa Clara 0 1076.39 67.81 91/183 4-7
140 Northwestern 0 1072.86 53.47 105/174 4-8
141 Grand Valley 0 1066.48 63.87 97/189 10-4
142 Michigan Tech 0 1062.91 43.84 111/179 7-13
143 Bates 0 1059.56 95.9 67/203 11-9
144 Kenyon 0 1059.11 88.37 70/211 8-5
145 Dayton 0 1055.78 78.39 75/199 8-5
146 Butler 0 1054.95 72.37 94/200 8-4
147 Wichita State 0 1054.8 113.35 66/210 3-1
148 Davidson 0 1054.75 67.63 100/196 10-8
149 Kentucky 0 1052.26 77.75 86/196 7-5
150 Rhode Island 0 1051.19 67.47 93/207 12-7
151 Tufts-B 0 1046.42 129.15 55/248 7-4
152 Carleton University 0 1045.56 124.52 65/243 3-4
153 Macalester 0 1042.94 53.9 101/184 9-10
154 Grinnell 0 1019.89 65.8 107/204 8-4
155 Wisconsin-La Crosse 0 1018.24 74.34 102/209 8-5
156 Johns Hopkins 0 1005.84 74.32 98/204 11-14
157 Vanderbilt 0 1002.81 75.2 93/203 8-5
158 George Mason 0 997.77 62.41 113/210 11-8
159 LSU 0 992.08 72.04 106/204 7-9
160 Wisconsin-Eau Claire 0 984.17 47.26 127/194 10-8
161 Washington-B 0 982.27 46.68 131/197 5-2
162 Messiah 0 981.6 72.81 106/213 7-12
163 Ohio 0 976.87 80.86 103/219 14-11
164 Montana State 0 974.46 86.94 105/227 4-3
165 Brandeis 0 972.11 53.02 131/204 12-8
166 Brigham Young-B 0 968.26 58.58 119/206 9-5
167 Truman State 0 964.62 73.01 108/217 14-4
168 Kansas 0 960.46 87.4 103/228 8-5
169 Massachusetts -B 0 959.86 58.07 124/206 3-10
170 Dickinson 0 953.2 64.76 123/213 7-12
171 Alabama-Birmingham 0 950.21 54.82 134/224 11-3
172 California-Davis 0 945.35 101.16 104/244 1-12
173 Delaware 0 938.01 66.2 121/217 10-8
174 Cal Poly-Humboldt 0 936.36 71.19 113/214 10-7
175 Ithaca 0 932.06 74 126/226 11-8
176 Towson 0 925.57 74.87 111/224 9-9
177 Minnesota-B 0 920.73 44.61 144/206 6-11
178 Pennsylvania 0 911.9 73.54 129/230 6-11
179 American 0 905.74 67.05 132/220 9-10
180 Arizona 0 904.94 51.09 140/213 12-6
181 Miami (Florida) 0 898.89 79.72 132/243 9-3
182 Kennesaw State 0 890.74 66.56 137/225 4-13
183 East Carolina 0 889.71 56.83 132/219 14-13
184 Union (Tennessee) 0 878.92 45.09 150/217 10-11
185 Occidental 0 875.91 56.76 138/229 6-6
186 North Carolina-B 0 864.39 78.56 128/234 10-9
187 Oklahoma State 0 863.82 59.01 140/226 13-8
188 Oregon State-B 0 863.35 61.14 139/235 5-5
189 Toronto 0 859.63 103.38 116/285 2-5
190 Cal Poly-Pomona 0 855.68 74.36 141/246 4-8
191 Princeton 0 854.4 91.64 130/267 3-7
192 Oregon -B 0 852.83 63.41 142/233 4-6
193 Saint Louis 0 852 60.26 151/229 5-14
194 Miami (Ohio) 0 846.65 74.68 142/243 10-2
195 Georgia Tech-B 0 839.54 71.1 145/243 8-3
196 Florida Tech 0 837.19 109.17 118/264 4-0
197 Georgia State 0 835.3 96.29 120/258 4-6
198 North Carolina State-B 0 817.07 86.68 143/257 4-6
199 Akron 0 813.12 121.4 112/285 6-4
200 Northern Iowa 0 811.12 55.53 160/240 11-7
201 Nebraska 0 786.47 135.39 108/291 6-5
202 Ave Maria-B 0 779.71 119.86 129/307 3-2
203 Christopher Newport 0 778.26 67.88 156/256 3-10
204 Northeastern-B 0 766.44 79.25 161/267 11-4
205 UCLA-B 0 765.3 82.37 149/287 7-9
206 Arkansas 0 762.15 70.17 160/265 5-6
207 Kent State 0 758.34 71.5 167/262 4-6
208 Baylor 0 757.43 72.02 147/259 12-5
209 Eastern Michigan 0 750.33 95.71 140/291 7-4
210 Air Force 0 746.86 76.36 148/270 3-9
211 Vermont-C 0 744.22 148.63 96/328 6-1
212 Nevada-Reno 0 744.04 82.28 165/269 7-4
213 Minnesota-Duluth 0 741.78 82.46 160/275 3-6
214 Haverford 0 741.57 73.36 156/274 12-8
215 MIT 0 739.3 59.26 175/258 9-8
216 Winona State 0 714.32 73.84 167/271 12-6
217 Wisconsin-B 0 710.71 92.99 164/286 6-8
218 Harvard 0 709.9 60.03 177/267 6-8
219 Colby 0 706.39 115.42 127/288 7-7
220 North Florida 0 699.73 78.88 170/278 0-3
221 John Brown 0 699.24 93.64 158/287 6-4
222 SUNY-Albany 0 697.07 87.9 153/291 6-7
223 Tarleton State 0 695.3 101.17 132/294 8-5
224 Seattle 0 694.62 127.51 140/305 3-2
225 West Virginia 0 685.38 77.01 177/285 12-4
226 Salisbury 0 684.63 71.32 186/280 8-3
227 Georgia Southern 0 678.26 62.07 186/274 8-9
228 Portland 0 665.63 70.63 171/286 6-7
229 Penn State-B 0 656.34 36.1 209/263 13-7
230 College of New Jersey 0 655.99 107.87 159/304 5-5
231 NYU 0 649.53 132.01 138/313 2-9
232 Connecticut College 0 649.5 60.05 192/283 7-4
233 Loyola Marymount 0 649.5 75.15 185/286 3-8
234 Texas-Dallas 0 646.77 87.16 182/317 4-8
235 Xavier 0 644.29 88.49 177/289 1-8
236 Michigan-B 0 642.3 86.52 179/305 5-11
237 Reed 0 640.47 86.81 187/293 5-7
238 Toledo 0 639.93 86.79 169/298 5-6
239 Montana 0 636 181.45 85/337 3-3
240 Texas-B 0 631.44 77.97 180/290 7-4
241 Skidmore 0 630.46 73.38 176/286 8-7
242 George Washington 0 625.89 87.13 180/306 5-7
243 Santa Clara-B 0 618.74 46.15 207/274 1-2
244 Cedarville 0 612.8 86.17 187/300 4-10
245 Illinois State 0 612.58 59.91 204/285 6-13
246 Wooster 0 604.97 72.61 199/298 4-2
247 Embry-Riddle 0 590.43 143.98 148/344 3-3
248 DePaul 0 588.06 54.69 208/289 4-6
249 Swarthmore 0 587.27 127.06 130/333 4-2
250 Wake Forest 0 586.48 64.67 204/302 7-12
251 Illinois-B 0 580.53 70.43 205/302 8-12
252 East Tennessee State 0 580.24 65.22 210/293 5-8
253 Trinity 0 579.39 43.87 218/282 7-11
254 Drexel 0 578.78 64.85 205/295 12-6
255 Georgia-B 0 567.19 81.33 198/308 5-7
256 Colorado State-B 0 564.61 56.38 213/292 5-9
257 California-B 0 558.86 41.51 222/281 7-17
258 Northern Arizona 0 557.55 39.66 226/287 4-7
259 Southern California-B 0 556.09 69.79 197/308 4-3
260 St John's (Minnesota) 0 552.99 76.23 198/303 3-8
261 Chico State 0 547.51 51.76 213/291 1-9
262 Texas Tech 0 542.88 33.23 230/286 5-7
263 Harding 0 535.96 61.39 204/300 8-18
264 Jacksonville State 0 535.3 65.47 213/312 5-11
265 Texas State 0 524.53 67.25 213/302 6-10
266 Grace 0 520.86 111.43 202/329 4-5
267 Virginia Commonwealth 0 511.33 59.85 219/305 1-10
268 Pacific Lutheran 0 485.92 67.42 223/315 3-9
269 Whitworth 0 481.72 119.77 193/349 3-6
270 SUNY-Geneseo 0 481.03 62.03 223/314 6-9
271 Virginia Tech-B 0 477.59 93.2 207/326 1-5
272 Grand Canyon-B 0 473.09 57.98 234/318 2-4
273 Central Connecticut State 0 469.54 66.8 214/314 6-6
274 Brown-B 0 466.17 89.01 212/331 5-8
275 California-Santa Barbara-B 0 464.59 60.44 230/321 2-9
276 Wisconsin-Platteville 0 450.87 98.72 217/329 3-9
277 Tennessee Tech 0 449.75 50.24 236/311 1-6
278 Wisconsin-Whitewater 0 435.85 123.47 199/338 3-3
279 Luther 0 432.43 84.92 230/330 8-3
280 Oklahoma 0 423.99 46.29 242/319 7-10
281 Michigan State-B 0 421.05 105.3 222/335 6-4
282 Texas-San Antonio 0 415.06 81.76 226/333 3-7
283 Worcester Polytechnic 0 413.7 66.35 245/324 5-9
284 Virginia-B 0 412.37 92.58 215/341 5-2
285 Western Michigan 0 406.21 131.55 198/347 3-7
286 Minnesota State-Mankato 0 400.87 142.82 199/351 4-2
287 Maryland-Baltimore County 0 399.85 71.6 234/337 2-7
288 Loyola-Chicago 0 398.54 99.28 221/340 5-6
289 Florida-B 0 396.37 83.54 235/341 5-5
290 Willamette 0 395.21 154.55 162/362 2-3
291 Navy 0 388.51 92.63 205/334 0-10
292 Massachusetts-Lowell 0 385.01 100.7 216/342 7-6
293 Cincinnati -B 0 376.98 106.5 216/349 3-7
294 Rensselaer Polytech 0 376.06 60.43 254/330 2-10
295 Samford 0 372.61 114.06 209/350 3-4
296 Ball State 0 364.79 65.47 258/333 8-10
297 Cal State-Long Beach 0 362.79 112.94 213/348 1-9
298 Northeastern-C 0 358.84 61.52 255/333 10-8
299 Carleton College-C 0 341.95 80.46 228/339 2-3
300 Amherst 0 340.07 62.55 264/342 6-8
301 Mississippi State-B 0 337.25 52.38 269/331 5-12
302 Washington University-B 0 317.98 64.83 242/343 4-14
303 Rowan 0 317.5 109.94 227/355 8-6
304 Mississippi 0 311.08 84.87 244/341 3-8
305 St Thomas 0 305.85 91.51 246/353 3-8
306 Alabama-B 0 301.37 75.59 247/340 5-9
307 Wisconsin-Stevens Point 0 292.99 150.45 208/364 1-4
308 Wright State 0 290.74 82.38 248/345 4-13
309 Stanford-B 0 287.12 70.38 263/347 0-5
310 Case Western Reserve-B 0 277.41 137.68 218/366 3-3
311 Texas A&M-B 0 274.06 67.54 269/342 5-8
312 Penn State-Behrend 0 273.35 86.79 255/350 3-3
313 Pennsylvania Western 0 272.07 96.17 252/354 5-8
314 Washington State 0 269.92 163.77 219/366 2-5
315 Kansas State 0 269.54 98.24 250/353 2-9
316 Villanova 0 260.06 73.37 268/346 4-14
317 Sam Houston 0 255.18 73.01 274/348 5-5
318 Boise State 0 252.55 124.05 209/359 1-5
319 Hofstra 0 240.55 84.25 264/349 6-8
320 Knox 0 238.05 117.38 224/357 2-7
321 Cornell-B 0 232.58 79.28 274/352 10-10
322 Minnesota-C 0 231.6 108.2 248/358 4-7
323 San Diego State-B 0 223.83 87.68 269/355 1-9
324 Connecticut-B 0 217.87 89.45 269/362 4-9
325 Bentley 0 194.03 126.44 257/367 0-6
326 Delaware-B 0 191.83 152.09 212/369 1-4
327 SUNY-Cortland 0 191.65 87.44 277/359 1-10
328 Purdue-B 0 185.29 96.91 265/361 3-8
329 Colorado Mesa 0 183.72 151.14 204/373 2-5
330 California-San Diego-B 0 183.49 83.72 277/356 3-9
331 MIT-B 0 159.35 161.59 232/372 1-3
332 Portland State 0 147.16 132.01 239/371 1-11
333 Nova Southeastern 0 133.33 55.02 310/355 2-3
334 South Carolina-B 0 129.6 70.71 279/360 2-13
335 Georgia College 0 122.42 69.38 304/362 1-10
336 Western New England 0 119.36 160.41 229/370 1-6
337 Army 0 118.29 79.19 294/363 2-9
338 Rice 0 114.91 61 302/359 3-8
339 Lehigh-B 0 114.06 95.46 287/366 5-6
340 Clemson-B 0 110.41 118.34 279/373 0-6
341 James Madison-B 0 105.59 96.48 286/365 3-3
342 Georgetown-B 0 96.98 152.31 262/372 4-1
343 Cal Poly-SLO-C 0 82.85 200.23 232/375 0-5
344 Illinois-Chicago 0 61.68 148.21 244/373 2-4
345 Rose-Hulman 0 53.18 45.91 322/361 3-9
346 Harvard-B 0 28.93 77.39 300/367 3-12
347 George Washington-B 0 28.03 73.5 317/367 7-10
348 Denver-B 0 12.93 112.71 281/371 1-10
349 Dayton-B 0 5.95 105.43 290/371 2-4
350 LSU-B 0 -13.33 58.18 327/368 0-4
351 Stevens Tech 0 -16.45 104.99 301/374 5-8
352 Dallas 0 -21.75 87.75 304/370 3-11
353 SUNY-Binghamton-B 0 -28.67 130.86 286/375 3-4
354 Dartmouth-B 0 -67.54 145.76 297/376 2-5
355 South Florida-B 0 -70.46 102.42 294/372 0-15
356 Colorado Mines-B 0 -70.97 229.72 208/380 0-6
357 Iowa-B 0 -71.74 86.02 326/371 2-4
358 SUNY-Buffalo-B 0 -77.12 84.37 322/373 0-6
359 West Chester-B 0 -77.42 90.24 322/371 5-13
360 Tennessee-Chattanooga -B 0 -90.62 166.02 289/376 0-7
361 Richmond-B 0 -107.36 116.01 308/374 1-2
362 Ohio-B 0 -113.99 87.11 335/373 2-7
363 Arizona State-B 0 -126.91 227.9 234/379 0-5
364 Notre Dame-B 0 -130.78 144.8 297/375 1-3
365 Maryland-B 0 -151.22 87.14 339/374 3-9
366 William & Mary-B 0 -154.6 121.98 324/376 1-5
367 Stephen F Austin 0 -228.23 84.04 346/376 0-13
368 New Hampshire 0 -272.62 134.93 330/379 1-6
369 Boston University-B 0 -307.09 181.51 314/381 0-5
370 Carthage 0 -310.44 149.26 337/380 1-9
371 Wisconsin-Eau Claire-B 0 -334.45 305.12 216/381 0-5
372 Illinois-C 0 -337.42 208.47 306/381 1-3
373 Wisconsin-Milwaukee-B 0 -406.97 75.83 363/378 2-9
374 American-B 0 -420.73 184.2 305/381 0-11
375 Wisconsin-C 0 -600.12 176.15 352/381 1-5
376 Siena 0 -646.18 125.38 368/381 0-11
377 Denison 0 -649.72 250.09 335/381 0-5
378 SUNY-Albany-B 0 -677.42 169.31 363/381 0-6
379 Middlebury-B 0 -726.22 310.22 313/381 0-6
380 Iowa State-B 0 -906.78 196.41 369/381 1-4
381 Grinnell-B 0 -1031.78 462.39 282/381 0-3

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)