Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2023-24 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
2 Atlantic Coast 2.04 North Carolina 100.00%,   North Carolina State 99.60%,   North Carolina-Wilmington 4.60%,  
1 Great Lakes 0 Illinois 0.10%,   Michigan 0.10%,  
1 Metro East 0
4 New England 4.14 Brown 100.00%,   Massachusetts 100.00%,   Vermont 99.90%,   Northeastern 82.30%,   Tufts 17.20%,   McGill 14.70%,  
2 North Central 1.99 Carleton College 99.90%,   Minnesota 99.40%,  
3 Northwest 3.14 Oregon 100.00%,   Brigham Young 92.40%,   Oregon State 69.40%,   British Columbia 26.90%,   Washington 24.60%,   Utah 0.50%,   Utah State 0.20%,  
1 Ohio Valley 1.91 Pittsburgh 99.90%,   Penn State 91.30%,  
2 South Central 2.64 Colorado 100.00%,   Texas 99.80%,   Washington University 63.00%,   Texas A&M 1.10%,  
2 Southeast 2.06 Georgia 100.00%,   Alabama-Huntsville 99.90%,   Georgia Tech 5.80%,  
2 Southwest 2.07 Cal Poly-SLO 100.00%,   California 97.40%,   UCLA 10.00%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region AC GL ME NE NC NW OV SC SE SW
Initial 2.042 0.002 0.000 4.141 1.993 3.140 1.912 2.639 2.057 2.074
Autos (all @ 1) 1.042 -0.998 -1.000 3.141 0.993 2.140 0.912 1.639 1.057 1.074
New England (@ 2) 1.042 -0.998 -1.000 2.141 0.993 2.140 0.912 1.639 1.057 1.074
New England (@ 3) 1.042 -0.998 -1.000 1.141 0.993 2.140 0.912 1.639 1.057 1.074
Northwest (@ 2) 1.042 -0.998 -1.000 1.141 0.993 1.140 0.912 1.639 1.057 1.074
South Central (@ 2) 1.042 -0.998 -1.000 1.141 0.993 1.140 0.912 0.639 1.057 1.074
New England (@ 4) 1.042 -0.998 -1.000 0.141 0.993 1.140 0.912 0.639 1.057 1.074
Northwest (@ 3) 1.042 -0.998 -1.000 0.141 0.993 0.140 0.912 0.639 1.057 1.074
Southwest (@ 2) 1.042 -0.998 -1.000 0.141 0.993 0.140 0.912 0.639 1.057 0.074
Southeast (@ 2) 1.042 -0.998 -1.000 0.141 0.993 0.140 0.912 0.639 0.057 0.074
Atlantic Coast (@ 2) 0.042 -0.998 -1.000 0.141 0.993 0.140 0.912 0.639 0.057 0.074
North Central (@ 2) 0.042 -0.998 -1.000 0.141 -0.007 0.140 0.912 0.639 0.057 0.074
Total 2 1 1 4 2 3 1 2 2 2

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 Colorado 1 2499.73 80.15 1/14 25-5
2 North Carolina 1 2486.33 46.03 1/7 34-2
3 Georgia 1 2456.9 47.35 1/8 29-2
4 Massachusetts 1 2454.1 52.47 1/10 27-4
5 Cal Poly-SLO 1 2396.85 46.84 1/10 34-4
6 Oregon 1 2330.08 56.82 1/16 35-4
7 Brown 1 2276.39 67.17 3/20 23-10
8 Pittsburgh 0.999 2332.82 89.76 1/22 24-6
9 Vermont 0.999 2247.89 65.38 3/21 19-11
10 Carleton College 0.999 2224.62 52.52 6/23 24-11
11 Alabama-Huntsville 0.999 2197.22 36.17 7/22 24-7
12 Texas 0.998 2246.19 54.82 4/22 22-7
13 North Carolina State 0.996 2171.47 35.02 8/21 26-11
14 Minnesota 0.994 2239.55 63.67 3/26 18-10
15 California 0.974 2157.46 43.75 7/26 31-10
16 Brigham Young 0.924 2120.63 36.65 11/29 16-11
17 Penn State 0.913 2148.22 58.44 5/29 28-12
18 Northeastern 0.823 2108.05 41.04 9/29 19-11
19 Oregon State 0.694 2098.46 70.69 7/35 23-10
20 Washington University 0.63 2086.16 55.62 9/34 27-6
21 British Columbia 0.269 2049.89 38.03 14/33 23-11
22 Washington 0.246 2033.49 54.02 11/38 21-14
23 Tufts 0.172 2024.06 49.16 14/41 14-16
24 McGill 0.147 1997.12 68.29 8/49 18-7
25 UCLA 0.1 2020.7 38.24 14/36 20-20
26 Georgia Tech 0.058 1988.02 53.27 14/49 16-9
27 North Carolina-Wilmington 0.046 1995.28 40.96 14/38 22-16
28 Texas A&M 0.011 1885.46 78.66 16/73 19-12
29 Utah 0.005 1947.07 47.04 18/45 21-15
30 Utah State 0.002 1908.9 54.99 19/59 16-14
31 Michigan 0.001 1885.75 60.82 20/74 20-11
32 Illinois 0.001 1885.37 57.32 20/61 25-4
33 Middlebury 0 2004.07 62.54 13/45 16-2
34 North Carolina-Charlotte 0 1920.89 41.87 21/53 19-19
35 California-Santa Cruz 0 1907.18 44.39 23/55 21-18
36 California-San Diego 0 1903.45 42.36 21/52 14-18
37 Ohio State 0 1903.25 43.41 22/53 20-13
38 Wisconsin 0 1893.9 53.17 22/57 18-13
39 Victoria 0 1857.48 46.01 27/58 10-21
40 Oklahoma Christian 0 1852.87 51.93 23/59 21-6
41 South Carolina 0 1846.77 44.07 25/62 24-14
42 Tulane 0 1838.42 40.76 27/64 20-10
43 Virginia Tech 0 1814.41 51 26/68 18-13
44 St Olaf 0 1811.34 66.67 24/80 31-3
45 Florida 0 1785.88 51.25 31/72 15-12
46 Alabama 0 1784.81 58.51 27/84 16-14
47 Auburn 0 1782.29 51.9 29/88 23-10
48 Michigan State 0 1778.48 81.74 21/99 18-4
49 Duke 0 1772.52 48.08 31/76 20-11
50 Missouri 0 1764.88 59.69 26/83 18-10
51 Whitman 0 1756.72 60.86 30/92 17-1
52 Colorado State 0 1756.05 67.03 30/94 16-15
53 Emory 0 1755.32 43.71 37/75 19-15
54 Williams 0 1749.57 46.49 32/82 28-2
55 Temple 0 1743.67 45.79 29/77 22-10
56 Virginia 0 1738.83 56.24 33/85 13-17
57 Utah Valley 0 1737.54 75.72 25/109 25-8
58 William & Mary 0 1727.3 48.35 37/80 20-17
59 California-Santa Barbara 0 1715.6 51.4 41/87 15-18
60 Chicago 0 1694.33 48.28 38/93 18-12
61 Purdue 0 1689.75 49.28 39/91 17-13
62 Iowa 0 1686.69 58.46 34/101 22-5
63 Maryland 0 1677.89 46.67 41/97 20-9
64 Richmond 0 1674.99 41.61 42/96 18-8
65 Western Washington 0 1673.44 57.91 38/99 14-17
66 Stanford 0 1671.57 49.73 41/95 18-21
67 Franciscan 0 1660.48 63.86 39/116 23-2
68 Central Florida 0 1638.53 62.45 37/127 20-15
69 James Madison 0 1633.19 50.08 49/105 15-14
70 Grand Canyon 0 1629.57 52.14 38/109 13-11
71 Appalachian State 0 1628.65 42.25 41/102 19-16
72 Ave Maria 0 1614.71 74.69 44/129 20-5
73 Cincinnati 0 1614 62.82 41/122 10-14
74 Dartmouth 0 1612.49 41.61 50/107 16-15
75 Massachusetts -B 0 1610.5 48.79 52/107 19-8
76 Carnegie Mellon 0 1607.47 52.42 52/125 18-12
77 Carleton College-CHOP 0 1604.23 48.07 53/112 28-8
78 Case Western Reserve 0 1595.69 56.13 47/135 20-12
79 Bates 0 1590.96 47.65 54/113 24-5
80 Lewis & Clark 0 1587.48 63.1 46/130 17-3
81 Mississippi State 0 1582.9 69.45 47/143 23-15
82 Indiana 0 1581.32 44.01 60/114 21-17
83 Elon 0 1576.44 37.53 59/111 15-4
84 Cornell 0 1575.01 50.28 55/127 17-13
85 Cedarville 0 1555.52 60.97 54/145 15-7
86 Georgetown 0 1554.4 58.46 55/137 10-11
87 Berry 0 1551.68 57.06 56/141 19-7
88 Florida State 0 1551.28 48.5 60/124 15-19
89 Tennessee 0 1543.84 56.86 51/146 8-21
90 SUNY-Buffalo 0 1543.75 64.86 56/149 13-10
91 Pennsylvania 0 1539.36 61.01 55/148 19-16
92 Princeton 0 1538.03 40.28 62/136 21-8
93 Wisconsin-Eau Claire 0 1534.71 53.07 51/142 20-9
94 Arkansas 0 1534.59 59.25 57/140 12-13
95 Notre Dame 0 1530.99 52.9 60/132 13-18
96 Lehigh 0 1526.34 46.07 66/141 15-21
97 Georgia State 0 1520.82 67.99 56/154 15-8
98 Tennessee-Chattanooga 0 1518.93 60.07 61/147 14-15
99 Colorado-B 0 1513.43 71.26 51/146 17-11
100 Colorado Mines 0 1512.08 78.11 49/162 21-6
101 Connecticut 0 1495.12 36.11 71/134 22-9
102 SUNY-Binghamton 0 1491.64 48.05 68/140 14-17
103 Liberty 0 1490.72 45.74 71/141 16-12
104 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0 1484.87 43.2 74/134 15-10
105 Northwestern 0 1482.91 49.47 73/143 16-16
106 Iowa State 0 1476.13 49.55 73/147 15-13
107 Vermont-B 0 1475.03 54.4 68/161 18-6
108 Tarleton State 0 1467.61 53.92 75/145 15-4
109 Davenport 0 1467.57 50.96 67/149 23-6
110 Vanderbilt 0 1457.16 50.32 72/146 8-19
111 Boston College 0 1455.9 61.12 70/164 11-5
112 Southern California 0 1454.03 53.63 76/150 7-13
113 Davidson 0 1437.27 51.75 71/160 19-11
114 Bowdoin 0 1436.94 55.1 80/167 17-8
115 LSU 0 1431.09 53 68/171 11-17
116 Rochester 0 1427.33 68.76 76/167 16-6
117 Kentucky 0 1415.92 67.05 72/169 15-7
118 Colorado College 0 1408.16 67.94 71/174 14-14
119 Syracuse 0 1403.26 53.38 86/164 14-14
120 Cal Poly-SLO-B 0 1401.25 60.58 81/173 15-12
121 Minnesota-B 0 1400.63 89.24 67/207 16-7
122 Oberlin 0 1396.72 59.57 77/174 11-11
123 San Jose State 0 1392.34 56.81 91/169 16-10
124 California-Irvine 0 1391.92 49.07 87/169 8-14
125 Towson 0 1389.09 55.54 93/176 16-13
126 Pittsburgh-B 0 1388.73 87.16 60/191 12-9
127 Houston 0 1388.32 75.92 70/186 9-5
128 Michigan Tech 0 1382.05 60.73 74/175 14-10
129 Penn State-B 0 1379.42 93.27 63/189 16-4
130 Yale 0 1379.37 62.35 78/178 17-17
131 Alabama-C 0 1376.71 140.38 40/229 6-0
132 Arizona State 0 1375.09 59.4 82/178 13-8
133 Macalester 0 1372.12 50.92 92/180 19-12
134 Wesleyan 0 1368.91 63.96 80/195 15-8
135 Kansas 0 1365.35 56.13 83/174 14-14
136 Tufts-B 0 1363.74 60.57 84/189 17-5
137 Army 0 1348.35 76.21 75/197 15-6
138 Boston University 0 1342.31 55.96 96/186 8-14
139 Bryant 0 1340.78 56.88 82/180 15-10
140 Truman State 0 1337.06 54.37 100/183 14-15
141 Santa Clara 0 1336.2 49.06 107/181 10-12
142 Southern Illinois-Edwardsville 0 1331.75 42.68 111/181 20-12
143 Clemson 0 1318.35 52.46 106/181 12-9
144 Maryland-Baltimore County 0 1315.87 55.71 104/189 10-11
145 Johns Hopkins 0 1315.12 47.33 111/192 13-11
146 Montana State 0 1315.09 63.14 100/199 4-12
147 West Chester 0 1314.53 79.83 83/216 14-9
148 Grace 0 1311.63 56.14 104/193 17-5
149 Harvard 0 1311.24 59.09 102/195 6-22
150 Missouri S&T 0 1305.15 56.88 97/195 16-15
151 Gonzaga 0 1301.37 144.33 48/245 5-1
152 Washington-B 0 1300 60.98 100/200 11-10
153 Denver 0 1296.21 87.73 88/236 9-10
154 Miami (Ohio) 0 1289.76 74.77 89/209 14-5
155 UCLA-B 0 1289.07 81.97 80/207 13-6
156 Rhode Island 0 1288.15 56.06 108/201 13-14
157 Washington State 0 1283.92 50.95 111/192 17-13
158 Saint Louis 0 1283.47 61.39 96/198 16-12
159 Rutgers 0 1282.55 47.33 117/191 12-26
160 Columbia 0 1275.42 58.23 107/214 16-17
161 Kennesaw State 0 1269.13 49.96 115/195 8-17
162 John Brown 0 1268.53 57.27 107/198 12-11
163 RIT 0 1267.82 52.77 119/204 9-19
164 Texas-San Antonio 0 1261.11 62.63 100/198 9-9
165 Kenyon 0 1252.36 73.67 104/225 6-11
166 Puget Sound 0 1252.14 87.62 86/225 13-3
167 Villanova 0 1251.96 67.92 117/214 21-9
168 Union (Tennessee) 0 1233.68 75.64 110/226 7-11
169 Xavier 0 1233.43 59.28 116/212 19-12
170 Delaware 0 1221.88 67.21 113/229 6-13
171 Navy 0 1212.43 62.2 123/217 8-12
172 Portland 0 1208.77 62.84 117/215 13-8
173 North Carolina-Asheville 0 1199.53 72.2 120/227 11-8
174 Brigham Young-B 0 1194.94 69.38 122/231 6-13
175 SUNY-Cortland 0 1193.21 90.51 90/247 15-5
176 Dayton 0 1190.4 80.47 126/238 14-6
177 South Florida 0 1186.53 43.53 142/217 9-16
178 Wisconsin-La Crosse 0 1186.43 50.67 136/223 12-10
179 Minnesota-Duluth 0 1177.59 69.16 122/233 7-10
180 Miami (Florida) 0 1176.36 97.54 101/240 6-5
181 College of New Jersey 0 1163.42 80.09 116/239 13-6
182 Brown-B 0 1163.41 92 111/249 7-4
183 Worcester Polytechnic Institute 0 1159.5 53.95 140/230 12-15
184 Texas-Dallas 0 1158.34 64.83 125/234 12-14
185 NYU 0 1156.8 44.48 156/227 10-16
186 Loyola Marymount 0 1155.9 92.06 114/249 10-7
187 Grinnell 0 1154.63 58.92 122/228 8-11
188 Ohio 0 1142.62 40.04 160/218 13-14
189 Alabama-Birmingham 0 1142.26 49.44 154/224 19-16
190 Charleston 0 1133.53 85.25 124/245 8-12
191 Texas State 0 1129.97 64.15 128/238 11-11
192 Messiah 0 1128.99 63.9 143/235 12-19
193 Connecticut College 0 1125.75 78.05 133/246 14-9
194 Northern Iowa 0 1121.31 54.75 153/237 13-12
195 MIT 0 1116.71 64.13 151/241 5-13
196 George Mason 0 1116.33 62.99 145/242 5-11
197 Spring Hill 0 1113.28 79.27 137/242 3-10
198 Virginia Commonwealth 0 1107.98 64.14 151/244 9-14
199 Embry-Riddle 0 1098.9 59.59 146/239 8-11
200 Texas-B 0 1088.69 90.31 127/254 7-8
201 Christopher Newport 0 1081.48 56.09 163/250 14-11
202 Northeastern-B 0 1080.66 50.91 154/243 11-13
203 San Diego State 0 1080.14 66.94 148/252 10-13
204 West Virginia 0 1079.5 59.63 157/245 14-18
205 North Carolina-B 0 1073.8 52.09 170/242 14-11
206 East Carolina 0 1065.59 78.34 155/257 10-15
207 George Washington 0 1058.5 67.67 154/250 7-16
208 Middlebury-B 0 1054.71 61.94 161/251 12-11
209 Arizona 0 1052.48 78.48 152/257 7-8
210 California-B 0 1048.92 61.01 169/251 14-9
211 Ball State 0 1043.66 53.74 172/247 17-15
212 Georgia-B 0 1039.36 111.5 134/276 9-3
213 Colby 0 1035.69 46.85 182/249 15-16
214 American 0 1033.12 57.91 167/251 6-17
215 St John's (Minnesota) 0 1029.82 53.71 165/250 9-9
216 Oklahoma State 0 1022.23 53.69 175/253 11-17
217 Baylor 0 1019.47 59.95 173/257 10-10
218 California-Davis 0 1015.39 58.35 180/266 12-11
219 Harding 0 1015.31 57.43 164/261 8-18
220 Butler 0 1010.21 60.04 177/254 12-14
221 Oklahoma 0 1005.7 56.71 180/257 8-13
222 Haverford 0 999.52 62.98 176/268 14-12
223 Claremont 0 995.21 79.86 146/265 14-9
224 Carthage 0 989.65 66.53 174/265 15-12
225 Reed 0 989.35 70.22 173/260 8-12
226 SUNY-Albany 0 987.78 61.69 175/259 10-13
227 Mississippi State -B 0 986.06 49.72 186/256 12-14
228 Nebraska 0 983.44 60.66 179/263 9-12
229 Dickinson 0 979.09 72.67 174/278 10-7
230 Skidmore 0 978.07 77.12 174/263 15-10
231 Georgia Southern 0 970.37 68.91 177/272 4-12
232 Northern Arizona 0 965.2 54.5 181/262 6-8
233 Florida-B 0 963.86 100.16 157/283 12-6
234 Mississippi State-C 0 950.27 69.64 182/271 4-2
235 North Carolina State-B 0 942.94 71.48 186/273 13-10
236 Rice 0 929.6 101.37 149/290 5-5
237 Michigan-B 0 928.81 72.97 182/277 8-8
238 Cal State-Long Beach 0 922.79 60.47 195/268 7-13
239 Salisbury 0 919.79 99.24 173/287 6-5
240 Wisconsin-B 0 917.85 67.67 195/279 8-12
241 North Texas 0 917.11 60.97 197/273 8-12
242 Brandeis 0 914.93 56.63 203/277 12-14
243 Georgia Tech-B 0 904.28 56.4 196/272 15-11
244 Virginia Tech-B 0 899.28 47.53 214/269 10-8
245 Illinois State 0 898.19 68.04 186/279 7-10
246 Texas Tech 0 888.68 66.44 192/278 7-13
247 SUNY-Geneseo 0 871.49 48.05 217/274 10-16
248 Akron 0 871.21 92.44 184/299 5-6
249 Wisconsin-Platteville 0 860.27 62.71 206/286 11-11
250 Cincinnati -B 0 857.68 100.05 181/310 3-3
251 Rowan 0 856.78 45.38 225/274 11-23
252 Air Force 0 850.51 73.67 205/293 1-8
253 Central Connecticut State 0 848.66 72.16 202/290 11-13
254 Whitworth 0 846.13 54.45 218/281 10-13
255 Jacksonville State 0 842.53 56.98 212/282 6-19
256 Amherst 0 835.51 62.18 212/289 8-16
257 Western Michigan 0 828.64 65.72 217/287 6-12
258 Trinity 0 827.06 75.8 208/290 6-14
259 Toledo 0 818.55 98.38 197/312 9-12
260 Hofstra 0 809.27 60.16 224/290 7-16
261 Sam Houston 0 789.48 110.65 191/315 3-9
262 Florida Tech 0 787.8 60.39 228/291 8-3
263 Montana 0 780.85 79.68 214/306 4-9
264 Drexel 0 769.67 58.37 231/297 2-16
265 Colorado-C 0 768.41 126.12 190/317 5-5
266 Pacific Lutheran 0 748.55 57.38 240/297 5-13
267 Kent State 0 747.63 70.99 226/304 6-16
268 Knox 0 737.81 53.41 239/302 10-15
269 Texas A&M-B 0 736.36 80.32 225/309 3-13
270 Southern California-B 0 720.15 58.59 245/302 4-10
271 Minnesota-C 0 718.6 78.43 233/310 5-16
272 SUNY-Stony Brook 0 714.83 74.97 235/317 2-15
273 Alabama-B 0 711.11 50.33 250/303 10-17
274 Luther College 0 694.97 60.48 244/307 5-14
275 Mary Washington 0 683.16 82.78 237/314 0-12
276 Florida Gulf Coast 0 681.37 70.59 244/316 9-7
277 Stevens Tech 0 678.83 67.92 247/311 10-14
278 Maryland-B 0 674.55 70.5 244/315 13-2
279 Western New England 0 673.67 65.08 246/312 4-16
280 Kansas-B 0 667.26 78.3 237/321 3-9
281 Vermont-C 0 660.56 192.71 180/351 2-3
282 Northeastern-C 0 655.82 67.62 251/315 7-11
283 Swarthmore 0 655.47 54.43 251/316 5-16
284 Edinboro 0 654.16 70.35 237/315 10-16
285 Washington University-B 0 651.34 77.34 244/320 6-19
286 Idaho 0 640.22 95.85 240/328 2-10
287 Purdue-B 0 630.64 59.77 250/314 10-18
288 South Carolina-B 0 620.93 45.81 266/311 8-21
289 SUNY-Binghamton-B 0 614.21 66.66 257/317 10-15
290 Nevada-Reno 0 602 104.96 240/337 4-13
291 Harvard-B 0 600.16 58.68 263/318 6-11
292 Florida Polytechnic 0 597.54 107.94 240/333 4-2
293 Rutgers-B 0 596.28 83.05 256/322 6-10
294 California-San Diego-B 0 591.08 85.33 242/329 5-10
295 California-Santa Barbara-B 0 581.39 59.37 264/320 8-14
296 Willamette 0 570.54 83.33 259/337 2-9
297 Virginia-B 0 569.94 69.98 255/326 9-13
298 Cal Poly-Humboldt 0 563.56 95.06 211/332 4-17
299 James Madison-B 0 554.86 82.74 262/338 6-7
300 Connecticut-B 0 549.33 60.21 271/322 8-10
301 Chico State 0 540.15 94.24 251/332 3-12
302 Cornell-B 0 534.1 88.47 257/334 8-7
303 Coastal Carolina 0 531.02 52.2 278/321 0-10
304 Wright State 0 527.36 77.23 266/328 4-14
305 Arizona State-B 0 511.42 116.23 240/345 2-8
306 Cal Poly-SLO-C 0 498.92 66.99 271/327 1-4
307 Carleton College-Karls-C 0 494.35 91.24 265/339 3-9
308 California-Santa Cruz-B 0 491.33 71.36 278/331 6-12
309 Portland State 0 491.18 121.54 245/342 3-18
310 Wichita State 0 489.08 101.44 243/339 3-16
311 Michigan State-B 0 474.64 86.47 259/333 6-15
312 Bentley 0 453.96 99.85 268/339 3-7
313 Oregon State-B 0 440.58 117.41 252/344 3-18
314 Concordia-Wisconsin 0 438.12 78.07 279/336 5-17
315 Indiana-B 0 438.08 73.24 269/337 3-9
316 Rensselaer Polytech 0 432.24 71.41 283/335 1-17
317 Seattle 0 431.55 77.25 276/340 2-10
318 Dartmouth-B 0 417.54 105.12 265/347 4-8
319 Iowa State-B 0 400.66 109.61 264/345 5-9
320 Illinois-B 0 360.32 79.05 265/342 6-14
321 LSU-B 0 358.46 100.43 273/348 2-10
322 Boise State 0 356.76 95.19 282/349 0-11
323 North Florida 0 355.74 127.85 261/350 3-13
324 Northwestern-B 0 332.42 102.33 273/348 4-14
325 New Jersey Tech 0 323.7 67.24 300/343 4-11
326 Georgetown-B 0 309.64 102.51 273/348 7-4
327 MIT-B 0 307.62 112.62 281/350 3-5
328 SUNY-Buffalo-B 0 301.69 68.16 309/343 4-12
329 Denver-B 0 287.78 120.72 286/351 5-11
330 Lehigh-B 0 287.63 57.96 309/343 3-11
331 Florida State-B 0 278.94 53.78 308/346 4-14
332 Notre Dame-B 0 258.56 95.45 301/350 4-7
333 Ohio-B 0 242.5 159.75 275/356 0-7
334 Ave Maria-B 0 226.28 102.08 293/352 4-8
335 Purdue-C 0 196.44 149.34 282/356 1-4
336 Delaware-B 0 189.93 78.42 308/353 6-9
337 Richmond-B 0 167.68 54.41 317/349 3-9
338 George Washington-B 0 157.82 75.08 317/354 7-10
339 William & Mary-B 0 153.15 74.47 319/352 1-11
340 Chicago-B 0 143.1 143.11 289/357 1-4
341 California-San Diego-C 0 117.11 106.11 316/355 0-10
342 SUNY-Albany-B 0 92.79 85.29 323/354 3-9
343 Tufts-C 0 84.69 128.72 301/356 1-7
344 Johns Hopkins-B 0 53.68 111.16 320/356 2-3
345 Iowa-B 0 42.04 136.71 312/357 3-8
346 Siena 0 39.98 119.01 317/357 0-13
347 Case Western Reserve-B 0 38.41 170.73 297/358 3-8
348 Southern Mississippi 0 36.96 119.12 313/357 0-13
349 American-B 0 34.29 61.68 330/354 5-14
350 Colorado State-B 0 -44.28 217.55 267/358 0-10
351 South Florida-B 0 -50.84 107.56 327/358 3-14
352 West Chester-B 0 -132.44 142.28 329/358 1-13
353 Dayton-B 0 -164.72 191.23 324/358 1-5
354 Denison 0 -189.45 239.2 293/358 1-5
355 Tulane-B 0 -220.86 396.97 207/358 0-6
356 RIT-B 0 -266 108.5 345/358 0-9
357 Central Florida-B 0 -291.69 136.39 342/358 1-11
358 Wisconsin-Milwaukee-B 0 -464.77 203.1 336/358 1-11

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)