Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2024-25 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
1 Atlantic Coast 1.49 North Carolina 96.90%,   Virginia 52.50%,  
1 Great Lakes 1.64 Michigan 100.00%,   Notre Dame 64.40%,  
1 Metro East 0
2 New England 2.01 Tufts 100.00%,   Vermont 100.00%,   Northeastern 1.10%,  
1 North Central 1.03 Carleton College 100.00%,   Minnesota 3.10%,  
6 Northwest 6.1 Oregon 100.00%,   British Columbia 100.00%,   Washington 100.00%,   Utah 99.60%,   Victoria 93.00%,   Brigham Young 71.80%,   Western Washington 45.70%,  
1 Ohio Valley 0.98 Ohio State 56.90%,   Pennsylvania 40.20%,   Ohio 0.50%,  
1 South Central 1.1 Colorado 100.00%,   Texas 10.30%,  
1 Southeast 0.05 Georgia Tech 4.50%,   Georgia 0.20%,  
5 Southwest 5.59 California-Santa Cruz 100.00%,   Stanford 100.00%,   California-San Diego 100.00%,   Cal Poly-SLO 98.90%,   California-Davis 81.00%,   California-Santa Barbara 73.20%,   UCLA 6.20%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region AC GL ME NE NC NW OV SC SE SW
Initial 1.494 1.644 0.000 2.011 1.031 6.101 0.976 1.103 0.047 5.593
Autos (all @ 1) 0.494 0.644 -1.000 1.011 0.031 5.101 -0.024 0.103 -0.953 4.593
Northwest (@ 2) 0.494 0.644 -1.000 1.011 0.031 4.101 -0.024 0.103 -0.953 4.593
Southwest (@ 2) 0.494 0.644 -1.000 1.011 0.031 4.101 -0.024 0.103 -0.953 3.593
Northwest (@ 3) 0.494 0.644 -1.000 1.011 0.031 3.101 -0.024 0.103 -0.953 3.593
Southwest (@ 3) 0.494 0.644 -1.000 1.011 0.031 3.101 -0.024 0.103 -0.953 2.593
Northwest (@ 4) 0.494 0.644 -1.000 1.011 0.031 2.101 -0.024 0.103 -0.953 2.593
Southwest (@ 4) 0.494 0.644 -1.000 1.011 0.031 2.101 -0.024 0.103 -0.953 1.593
Northwest (@ 5) 0.494 0.644 -1.000 1.011 0.031 1.101 -0.024 0.103 -0.953 1.593
Southwest (@ 5) 0.494 0.644 -1.000 1.011 0.031 1.101 -0.024 0.103 -0.953 0.593
Northwest (@ 6) 0.494 0.644 -1.000 1.011 0.031 0.101 -0.024 0.103 -0.953 0.593
New England (@ 2) 0.494 0.644 -1.000 0.011 0.031 0.101 -0.024 0.103 -0.953 0.593
Total 1 1 1 2 1 6 1 1 1 5

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 British Columbia 1 3002.29 91.19 1/4 18-1
2 Carleton College 1 2998.57 99.4 1/7 14-2
3 Tufts 1 2840.06 56.27 1/7 18-0
4 Colorado 1 2749.63 67.87 1/9 15-4
5 Oregon 1 2744.32 44.21 2/8 14-6
6 Vermont 1 2671.2 87.49 1/14 14-4
7 Michigan 1 2568.61 98.88 2/19 9-3
8 Washington 1 2527.69 62.05 5/18 11-8
9 California-San Diego 1 2495.97 41.72 6/19 14-12
10 California-Santa Cruz 1 2477.11 44.61 6/18 12-8
11 Stanford 1 2475.08 58.38 6/20 13-11
12 Utah 0.996 2478.8 79.17 5/26 12-7
13 Cal Poly-SLO 0.989 2443.09 80.2 6/24 17-9
14 North Carolina 0.969 2522.64 153.35 1/28 13-5
15 Victoria 0.93 2371.15 71.14 8/30 7-13
16 California-Davis 0.81 2306.69 53.73 10/25 9-11
17 California-Santa Barbara 0.732 2303.86 73.51 8/29 11-8
18 Brigham Young 0.718 2293.32 61.33 11/26 9-10
19 Notre Dame 0.644 2286.09 72.13 11/28 10-4
20 Ohio State 0.569 2266.62 99.74 8/33 13-6
21 Virginia 0.525 2268.93 92.35 7/32 18-6
22 Western Washington 0.457 2250.67 119.49 7/41 11-8
23 Pennsylvania 0.402 2245.85 58.47 12/30 9-8
24 Texas 0.103 2128.98 98.52 11/41 6-7
25 UCLA 0.062 2133.45 82.28 13/40 14-16
26 Georgia Tech 0.045 2058.72 112.55 13/59 14-5
27 Minnesota 0.031 2134.28 62.97 15/36 7-5
28 Northeastern 0.011 2092.61 72.51 17/39 9-9
29 Ohio 0.005 1958.56 121.05 18/73 11-2
30 Georgia 0.002 2061.57 63.42 19/45 7-5
31 Wisconsin 0 2022.97 72.65 21/48 8-10
32 Pittsburgh 0 2014.51 63.58 22/48 9-7
33 Georgetown 0 2007.01 50.19 24/45 12-7
34 Cornell 0 1968.51 78.77 22/55 10-3
35 Carleton College-Eclipse 0 1951.89 91.5 22/71 10-3
36 MIT 0 1899.22 66.61 25/58 7-6
37 American 0 1896.84 88.71 24/64 13-8
38 Duke 0 1890.8 84.34 24/60 15-5
39 California 0 1867.09 70.22 28/59 11-9
40 Haverford/Bryn Mawr 0 1843.37 91.05 27/78 13-7
41 Southern California 0 1842.16 75.94 30/65 6-12
42 Kenyon 0 1837.77 123.3 21/77 12-0
43 Colorado State 0 1835.82 88.12 22/70 0-12
44 Whitman 0 1830.92 98.96 26/76 12-2
45 Missouri 0 1827.88 91.74 27/76 16-2
46 Texas-Dallas 0 1822.28 83.86 28/71 5-7
47 Wesleyan 0 1820.96 81.06 29/69 11-3
48 Liberty 0 1819.58 123.28 24/81 13-4
49 William & Mary 0 1813.92 88.23 28/68 6-6
50 Middlebury 0 1802.59 85.8 26/71 12-1
51 British Columbia-B 0 1744.01 109.99 30/93 4-3
52 Washington University 0 1738.3 75.61 28/74 14-5
53 Oregon State 0 1715.45 78.43 33/79 14-6
54 Appalachian State 0 1699.38 125.09 32/97 10-7
55 Maryland 0 1698.67 76.29 36/82 12-8
56 James Madison 0 1681.44 106.68 31/92 7-5
57 Brown 0 1667.49 46.87 47/74 6-11
58 Davenport 0 1659.67 75.07 39/80 14-1
59 Purdue 0 1657.52 116.06 30/104 7-4
60 Lewis & Clark 0 1656.43 102.35 35/96 9-4
61 North Carolina State 0 1651.53 124.36 30/102 5-6
62 California-Irvine 0 1642.75 66.45 43/88 18-5
63 South Carolina 0 1634.67 101.79 32/99 5-7
64 Portland 0 1626.91 77.46 37/90 11-8
65 St Olaf 0 1623.78 81.36 41/96 9-10
66 Florida 0 1602.63 110.38 37/98 9-5
67 Santa Clara 0 1587.55 73.15 46/96 10-6
68 Rochester 0 1586.57 65.66 49/87 10-3
69 Connecticut 0 1568.1 65.89 50/95 6-7
70 Central Florida 0 1557.32 89.43 43/98 7-6
71 Colorado College 0 1556.22 97.47 41/112 12-6
72 Union (Tennessee) 0 1522.08 79.19 51/106 9-1
73 Utah State 0 1518.98 114.46 40/118 3-1
74 Chicago 0 1517.69 112.22 38/117 8-6
75 Columbia 0 1507.91 77.8 47/104 5-7
76 Penn State 0 1497.26 78.82 50/110 8-10
77 Mount Holyoke 0 1491.17 84.75 49/109 2-4
78 Tennessee 0 1478.92 82.43 52/114 12-4
79 Carnegie Mellon 0 1475.55 97.06 47/115 5-8
80 Wellesley 0 1466.26 54.36 63/100 12-5
81 Case Western Reserve 0 1445.74 94.1 53/121 6-6
82 Illinois 0 1439.05 57.36 63/106 13-6
83 Macalester 0 1432.7 94.53 50/116 9-5
84 Grand Canyon 0 1431.34 98.06 56/124 8-2
85 Vermont-B 0 1431.22 84.13 57/124 5-4
86 Michigan State 0 1408.17 69.56 65/125 8-4
87 Montana 0 1396.39 76.27 59/129 4-3
88 San Diego State 0 1395.48 74.34 63/116 13-4
89 Ithaca 0 1376.07 72.91 66/121 7-6
90 Brown-B 0 1362.75 161.75 43/164 5-2
91 Richmond 0 1356.1 76.25 61/122 6-5
92 Rice 0 1345.62 93.88 56/133 7-5
93 Wisconsin-Eau Claire 0 1343.8 99.53 63/136 9-4
94 Williams 0 1338.62 66.3 72/130 13-5
95 Michigan Tech 0 1336.29 85.63 61/138 8-5
96 Iowa State 0 1329.44 64.6 70/129 13-6
97 Denver 0 1323.68 70.3 71/125 14-3
98 Emory 0 1321.96 105.06 56/150 7-6
99 SUNY-Buffalo 0 1316.52 82.56 65/136 11-4
100 Butler 0 1312.73 82.57 61/130 5-2
101 Lehigh 0 1276.26 73.14 69/137 9-12
102 Loyola-Chicago 0 1266.99 112.73 64/158 9-3
103 California-San Diego-B 0 1266.85 90.93 70/144 10-9
104 Temple 0 1262.45 83.06 74/154 3-8
105 Virginia Tech 0 1253.9 82.67 73/142 4-7
106 Alabama-Huntsville 0 1251.08 225.56 28/196 1-3
107 Arkansas 0 1238.62 116.52 62/158 3-3
108 SUNY-Binghamton 0 1234.66 74.46 73/144 7-8
109 West Chester 0 1213.67 69.47 83/146 1-9
110 George Washington 0 1211.98 77.85 81/141 7-5
111 Cedarville 0 1211.01 46.94 88/134 8-4
112 Arizona State 0 1196.04 64.99 88/147 14-9
113 Cincinnati 0 1195.23 77.33 81/156 9-4
114 Swarthmore 0 1195.07 72.27 89/148 8-5
115 Clemson 0 1194.37 56.25 88/138 7-4
116 Yale 0 1181.21 83.16 81/150 4-8
117 Kansas 0 1172.78 101.95 80/163 3-3
118 Puget Sound 0 1171.73 49.09 96/142 5-7
119 Claremont 0 1150.79 64.58 88/146 9-10
120 Northwestern 0 1142.51 92.93 79/160 5-13
121 Xavier 0 1134.5 66.64 94/162 8-5
122 Dartmouth 0 1120.25 64.09 98/157 5-1
123 Claremont-B 0 1114.02 169.32 58/194 1-2
124 NYU 0 1112.91 66.82 96/153 8-4
125 Saint Louis 0 1110.83 77.43 86/160 6-7
126 Winona State 0 1098.99 61.67 96/156 12-7
127 Northern Arizona 0 1089.04 106.19 79/175 3-7
128 Harvard 0 1076.14 63.86 94/162 6-8
129 Grand Valley 0 1064.88 61.15 107/159 5-7
130 Cal Poly-SLO-B 0 1060.47 81.93 94/169 3-7
131 Catholic 0 1058.71 92.91 88/172 3-8
132 Stanford-B 0 1047.99 111.62 83/183 1-5
133 Trinity 0 1035.87 66.17 107/164 7-9
134 California-B 0 1031.69 87.29 94/174 5-6
135 Jacksonville State 0 1022.11 94.89 97/176 1-5
136 Rutgers 0 1019.06 95.21 99/174 9-5
137 North Carolina-Wilmington 0 1013.23 80.9 100/171 8-15
138 Georgia College 0 1012.61 62.74 110/164 6-7
139 Berry 0 1002.17 89.15 98/179 8-7
140 SUNY-Geneseo 0 1000.08 65.55 101/166 6-9
141 RIT 0 998.58 153.19 79/195 1-4
142 Boston College 0 986.95 82.32 106/174 3-10
143 Tulane 0 980.17 86.5 109/178 5-3
144 Boston University 0 979.99 96.82 100/193 5-8
145 Wisconsin-La Crosse 0 978.08 63.9 114/171 4-7
146 Delaware 0 975.99 87.63 104/178 6-3
147 North Carolina-B 0 974.81 113.05 90/192 3-9
148 Davidson 0 970.84 78.87 112/177 7-6
149 Iowa 0 964.96 105.69 104/186 7-5
150 Montana State 0 955.75 75.09 98/178 2-5
151 Occidental 0 952.23 76.61 107/181 5-4
152 Wake Forest 0 947.02 121.26 87/194 3-3
153 Alabama 0 938.62 85.18 108/183 7-7
154 Knox 0 935.2 65.19 123/173 5-8
155 Massachusetts 0 882.78 67.92 125/180 4-8
156 Syracuse 0 873.51 79.58 114/184 6-7
157 East Carolina 0 855.82 91.85 121/195 3-2
158 Arizona 0 854.59 66.73 134/185 6-12
159 Florida State 0 847.3 75.96 134/186 6-7
160 Indiana 0 842.49 67.46 133/187 6-6
161 Oberlin 0 837.33 113.12 115/197 1-8
162 UCLA-B 0 837.04 78.05 132/188 7-10
163 Colby 0 836.35 87.16 124/197 3-7
164 Miami (Florida) 0 810.09 60.9 137/187 11-9
165 California-Davis-B 0 807.48 107.03 121/206 1-5
166 Nevada-Reno 0 804.15 79.84 137/194 4-9
167 George Mason 0 803.05 47.71 144/184 6-6
168 Pacific Lutheran 0 793.46 85.88 127/193 4-7
169 Michigan-B 0 791.57 77.89 133/196 4-6
170 Colorado-B 0 779.62 56.32 148/192 3-9
171 Charleston 0 774.01 81.21 139/202 5-8
172 Colorado Mines 0 762.06 92.34 123/205 5-5
173 New Hampshire 0 758.82 73.16 135/195 5-13
174 Bates 0 754.54 62.56 143/194 3-7
175 Missouri State 0 747.26 166.05 105/219 1-4
176 Truman State 0 739.96 70.42 144/197 7-12
177 Vermont-C 0 734.3 54.08 152/194 2-3
178 Harding 0 727.98 144.38 116/211 3-4
179 Georgia Southern 0 690.69 112.33 134/212 3-8
180 Skidmore 0 689.71 76.39 149/206 4-8
181 St Olaf-B 0 668.07 88.62 149/208 2-12
182 LSU 0 655.82 97.7 143/208 7-6
183 Vanderbilt 0 655.18 74.14 154/207 6-9
184 Tennessee-Chattanooga 0 611.46 68.38 156/208 2-8
185 Utah-B 0 605.04 144.84 128/219 0-7
186 Cal State-Long Beach 0 595.6 86.44 164/215 5-12
187 Texas A&M 0 594.04 83.73 152/210 3-8
188 Dayton 0 593.78 104.9 149/216 4-8
189 Towson 0 593.74 138.48 139/220 3-4
190 California-Santa Barbara-B 0 572.3 113.01 146/218 1-5
191 Florida Tech 0 538.33 86.48 160/217 4-8
192 William & Mary-B 0 530.76 85.57 161/221 0-6
193 Cal Poly-Humboldt 0 516.85 143.96 137/225 1-10
194 Washington-B 0 510.57 162.05 138/224 2-7
195 Georgetown-B 0 508.67 155.49 129/225 1-5
196 Miami (Ohio) 0 501.43 92.78 167/219 2-4
197 Johns Hopkins 0 498.81 90.25 167/219 2-6
198 Washington University-B 0 494.12 37.27 185/211 4-7
199 Texas State 0 479.99 7.15 191/206 0-2
200 Georgia-B 0 476.98 94.17 172/223 2-10
201 Dickinson 0 476.19 116.7 162/220 3-9
202 South Carolina-B 0 449.8 191.43 145/225 1-5
203 SUNY-Stony Brook 0 440.77 71.92 180/217 2-4
204 Cornell-B 0 437.77 114.67 163/224 1-5
205 Wisconsin-B 0 415 85.89 179/223 0-5
206 California-San Diego-C 0 384.47 126.58 172/223 2-15
207 Notre Dame-B 0 382.26 115.77 169/224 1-5
208 Auburn 0 367.8 119.78 167/225 2-8
209 Arizona-B 0 346 131.25 173/225 0-6
210 Connecticut College 0 338.33 117.76 167/224 0-5
211 Pennsylvania-B 0 323.52 227.53 129/226 0-7
212 John Brown 0 302.65 199.88 147/226 0-4
213 Georgia Tech-B 0 267.41 201.32 149/226 1-5
214 Purdue-B 0 263.03 76.22 196/224 1-11
215 Northeastern-B 0 249.09 103.06 191/225 1-10
216 Alabama-Birmingham 0 245.82 61.61 201/223 1-3
217 Florida-B 0 235.72 144.34 184/225 1-10
218 Lewis & Clark -B 0 230.67 311.27 102/226 0-6
219 American-B 0 212.98 135.24 185/226 1-12
220 Northwestern-B 0 212.13 189.63 164/226 0-5
221 Elon 0 203.3 122.65 187/225 1-5
222 Texas-B 0 81.59 212.48 183/226 0-9
223 Columbia-B 0 74.12 183.73 181/226 0-5
224 Maryland-B 0 -101.03 162.12 200/226 0-3
225 Emory-B 0 -155.05 305.69 181/226 0-12
226 Southern California-B 0 -215.4 264.9 168/226 0-3

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)