#255 Wake Forest (7-12)

avg: 586.48  •  sd: 64.67  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
149 Davidson Loss 4-13 454.75 Feb 15th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
241 Michigan-B Win 8-7 767.3 Feb 15th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
131 Pittsburgh-B Loss 7-12 600.79 Feb 15th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
256 Illinois-B Win 7-5 908.67 Feb 16th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
187 North Carolina-B Win 9-6 1282.95 Feb 16th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
164 Ohio Loss 5-10 402.97 Feb 16th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
247 George Washington Win 9-6 1044.45 Mar 22nd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
113 Lehigh Loss 9-15 688.76 Mar 22nd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
138 RIT Loss 3-15 492.92 Mar 22nd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
43 Virginia Tech** Loss 1-15 1012.2 Ignored Mar 22nd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
139 Florida State Loss 4-15 483.69 Mar 23rd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
159 George Mason Loss 5-15 397.77 Mar 23rd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
170 Massachusetts -B Loss 4-10 359.86 Mar 23rd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
249 Cedarville Win 10-8 875.46 Mar 29th Needle in a Ho Stack 2025
257 East Tennessee State Loss 11-15 199.07 Mar 29th Needle in a Ho Stack 2025
344 South Carolina-B Win 7-5 457.74 Mar 29th Needle in a Ho Stack 2025
94 Tennessee-Chattanooga** Loss 5-13 679.56 Ignored Mar 29th Needle in a Ho Stack 2025
345 Georgia College Win 14-9 596.29 Mar 30th Needle in a Ho Stack 2025
199 North Carolina State-B Loss 8-13 320.91 Mar 30th Needle in a Ho Stack 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)