#339 California-San Diego-B (3-9)

avg: 183.49  •  sd: 83.72  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
353 Cal Poly-SLO-C Win 13-9 501.42 Feb 1st Pres Day Quals men
208 UCLA-B Loss 8-13 269.14 Feb 1st Pres Day Quals men
58 Grand Canyon** Loss 2-13 900.66 Ignored Feb 1st Pres Day Quals men
262 California-B Loss 9-12 213.5 Feb 2nd Pres Day Quals men
332 San Diego State-B Win 10-9 348.83 Feb 2nd Pres Day Quals men
280 California-Santa Barbara-B Loss 5-9 -64.47 Feb 2nd Pres Day Quals men
167 Brigham Young-B** Loss 1-13 368.26 Ignored Mar 29th Sinvite 2025
332 San Diego State-B Win 8-6 524.32 Mar 29th Sinvite 2025
263 Northern Arizona Loss 7-13 0.02 Mar 29th Sinvite 2025
264 Southern California-B Loss 8-13 59.94 Mar 29th Sinvite 2025
181 Arizona** Loss 4-10 304.94 Ignored Mar 30th Sinvite 2025
332 San Diego State-B Loss 5-7 -104.32 Mar 30th Sinvite 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)