#368 Iowa State-B (5-9)

avg: 400.66  •  sd: 109.61  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
100 Colorado-B** Loss 1-13 913.43 Ignored Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2024
184 Wisconsin-La Crosse** Loss 4-11 586.43 Ignored Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2024
414 Wisconsin-Milwaukee-B** Win 9-3 135.23 Ignored Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2024
304 Luther College Loss 6-11 148.28 Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2024
373 Northwestern-B Win 9-6 750.98 Mar 31st Old Capitol Open 2024
400 Iowa-B Win 10-6 538.2 Mar 31st Old Capitol Open 2024
122 Minnesota-B** Loss 3-15 800.63 Ignored Apr 13th North Central Dev Mens Conferences 2024
400 Iowa-B Win 11-6 588.74 Apr 13th North Central Dev Mens Conferences 2024
413 Marquette-B** Win 11-1 180.15 Ignored Apr 13th North Central Dev Mens Conferences 2024
257 Wisconsin-B Loss 8-15 353.04 Apr 14th North Central Dev Mens Conferences 2024
299 Minnesota-C Loss 10-15 265 Apr 14th North Central Dev Mens Conferences 2024
12 Carleton College** Loss 0-15 1624.62 Ignored Apr 27th North Central D I College Mens Regionals 2024
243 Nebraska Loss 5-15 383.44 Apr 27th North Central D I College Mens Regionals 2024
299 Minnesota-C Loss 10-15 265 Apr 28th North Central D I College Mens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)