#388 American-B (0-11)

avg: -420.73  •  sd: 184.2  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
374 Richmond-B Loss 1-12 -707.36 Feb 22nd Monument Melee 2025
352 Georgetown-B Loss 3-12 -503.02 Feb 22nd Monument Melee 2025
357 George Washington-B Loss 5-9 -501.03 Feb 22nd Monument Melee 2025
352 Georgetown-B Loss 4-9 -503.02 Feb 23rd Monument Melee 2025
357 George Washington-B Loss 8-11 -337.58 Feb 23rd Monument Melee 2025
115 Vermont-B** Loss 1-15 594.71 Ignored Mar 22nd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
163 Messiah** Loss 6-15 381.6 Ignored Mar 22nd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
96 Appalachian State** Loss 1-15 674.42 Ignored Mar 22nd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
139 Florida State** Loss 5-14 483.69 Ignored Mar 22nd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
247 George Washington** Loss 1-15 25.89 Ignored Mar 23rd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
357 George Washington-B Loss 10-11 -96.97 Mar 23rd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)