#39 Cincinnati (11-2)

avg: 1630.04  •  sd: 72.64  •  top 16/20: 0.2%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
159 George Mason Win 12-11 1122.77 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
157 Johns Hopkins** Win 13-2 1605.84 Ignored Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
66 Dartmouth Win 11-10 1577.25 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
64 James Madison Loss 9-11 1208.17 Jan 26th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
115 Vermont-B Win 14-10 1593.42 Jan 26th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
78 Richmond Win 12-10 1586.15 Jan 26th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
90 Missouri S&T Win 15-10 1748.92 Mar 29th Huck Finn 2025
150 Kentucky Win 15-8 1617.06 Mar 29th Huck Finn 2025
72 Southern Illinois-Edwardsville Win 15-8 1961.42 Mar 29th Huck Finn 2025
67 Indiana Win 10-9 1568.25 Mar 29th Huck Finn 2025
35 Chicago Win 11-7 2121.23 Mar 30th Huck Finn 2025
15 Washington University Loss 7-15 1351.63 Mar 30th Huck Finn 2025
50 Colorado State Win 11-10 1686.63 Mar 30th Huck Finn 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)