#49 North Carolina State (13-11)

avg: 1564.8  •  sd: 51.62  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
54 Carleton College-CHOP Win 13-11 1766.9 Feb 1st Carolina Kickoff mens 2025
87 Temple Win 13-9 1729.49 Feb 1st Carolina Kickoff mens 2025
81 North Carolina-Charlotte Win 13-11 1551.1 Feb 1st Carolina Kickoff mens 2025
21 Georgia Tech Loss 13-15 1640.61 Feb 2nd Carolina Kickoff mens 2025
37 North Carolina-Wilmington Win 14-12 1856.02 Feb 2nd Carolina Kickoff mens 2025
48 Maryland Loss 12-13 1440.66 Feb 2nd Carolina Kickoff mens 2025
64 James Madison Win 13-6 2057.38 Feb 15th Queen City Tune Up 2025
51 Purdue Win 13-8 2052.02 Feb 15th Queen City Tune Up 2025
25 Penn State Loss 12-13 1702.38 Feb 15th Queen City Tune Up 2025
61 Alabama-Huntsville Win 7-5 1792.49 Feb 16th Queen City Tune Up 2025
17 Tufts Loss 4-10 1297.01 Feb 16th Queen City Tune Up 2025
96 Appalachian State Win 10-9 1399.42 Feb 22nd Easterns Qualifier 2025
66 Dartmouth Win 12-9 1797.61 Feb 22nd Easterns Qualifier 2025
67 Indiana Loss 9-11 1194.04 Feb 22nd Easterns Qualifier 2025
52 William & Mary Loss 8-11 1185.88 Feb 22nd Easterns Qualifier 2025
97 Duke Win 13-8 1769.58 Feb 23rd Easterns Qualifier 2025
88 Georgetown Win 14-10 1707.37 Feb 23rd Easterns Qualifier 2025
63 Notre Dame Win 15-14 1584.46 Feb 23rd Easterns Qualifier 2025
14 California Loss 7-13 1411.7 Mar 29th Easterns 2025
1 Massachusetts** Loss 5-13 1659.1 Ignored Mar 29th Easterns 2025
25 Penn State Loss 8-13 1331.22 Mar 29th Easterns 2025
18 Northeastern Loss 7-13 1338.17 Mar 29th Easterns 2025
64 James Madison Win 13-11 1686.22 Mar 30th Easterns 2025
28 Pittsburgh Loss 6-15 1164.73 Mar 30th Easterns 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)