#169 Puget Sound (13-3)

avg: 1252.14  •  sd: 87.62  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
255 Cal State-Long Beach Win 10-5 1496.69 Feb 3rd Stanford Open 2024
354 California-Santa Cruz-B** Win 13-3 1091.33 Ignored Feb 3rd Stanford Open 2024
155 Washington-B Win 12-6 1879.31 Feb 3rd Stanford Open 2024
178 Portland Win 13-5 1808.77 Mar 2nd PLU Mens BBQ
239 Reed Win 13-6 1589.35 Mar 2nd PLU Mens BBQ
335 Willamette** Win 13-4 1170.54 Ignored Mar 2nd PLU Mens BBQ
291 Pacific Lutheran Win 13-4 1348.55 Mar 3rd PLU Mens BBQ
155 Washington-B Win 10-8 1562.66 Mar 3rd PLU Mens BBQ
355 Portland State** Win 13-2 1091.18 Ignored Mar 31st PDX Round Robin 2024
355 Portland State** Win 13-3 1091.18 Ignored Mar 31st PDX Round Robin 2024
239 Reed Loss 9-11 740.15 Apr 13th Northwest D III Mens Conferences 2024
335 Willamette Win 11-9 819.75 Apr 13th Northwest D III Mens Conferences 2024
365 Seattle** Win 11-4 1031.55 Ignored Apr 13th Northwest D III Mens Conferences 2024
81 Lewis & Clark Loss 7-11 1120.59 Apr 13th Northwest D III Mens Conferences 2024
178 Portland Win 15-12 1509.26 Apr 14th Northwest D III Mens Conferences 2024
239 Reed Loss 12-15 688.86 Apr 14th Northwest D III Mens Conferences 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)