#13 Victoria (14-13)

avg: 2153.37  •  sd: 61.18  •  top 16/20: 99.8%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
5 Stanford Loss 11-12 2394.88 Jan 27th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
11 Brigham Young Loss 8-11 1890.43 Jan 27th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
17 California-Santa Cruz Win 15-12 2378.96 Jan 27th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
29 UCLA Win 13-9 2271.75 Jan 27th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
1 British Columbia** Loss 3-15 2170.47 Ignored Jan 28th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
20 California-Davis Win 9-8 2106.44 Jan 28th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
10 Washington Loss 7-13 1700.55 Jan 28th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
5 Stanford Loss 2-13 1919.88 Mar 2nd Stanford Invite 2024
30 Cal Poly-SLO Loss 7-9 1562.57 Mar 2nd Stanford Invite 2024
10 Washington Loss 7-10 1868.42 Mar 2nd Stanford Invite 2024
20 California-Davis Win 9-3 2581.44 Mar 3rd Stanford Invite 2024
29 UCLA Win 10-7 2242.85 Mar 3rd Stanford Invite 2024
11 Brigham Young Loss 6-13 1656.04 Mar 16th NW Challenge 2024
26 Wisconsin Win 12-8 2318.33 Mar 16th NW Challenge 2024
4 Oregon Loss 7-13 2011.52 Mar 16th NW Challenge 2024
21 Northeastern Loss 12-13 1834.88 Mar 16th NW Challenge 2024
28 California Win 13-8 2352.67 Mar 17th NW Challenge 2024
46 Whitman Win 13-7 2197.84 Mar 17th NW Challenge 2024
1 British Columbia** Loss 5-15 2170.47 Ignored Apr 13th Cascadia D I Womens Conferences 2024
15 Western Washington Win 12-9 2478.1 Apr 13th Cascadia D I Womens Conferences 2024
4 Oregon Loss 7-15 1969.05 Apr 14th Cascadia D I Womens Conferences 2024
10 Washington Win 15-9 2773.56 Apr 14th Cascadia D I Womens Conferences 2024
1 British Columbia** Loss 2-13 2170.47 Ignored May 4th Northwest D I College Womens Regionals 2024
25 Utah Win 13-10 2214.17 May 4th Northwest D I College Womens Regionals 2024
15 Western Washington Win 13-12 2257.74 May 4th Northwest D I College Womens Regionals 2024
116 Montana** Win 13-2 1712.89 Ignored May 5th Northwest D I College Womens Regionals 2024
154 Oregon State** Win 13-0 1459.31 Ignored May 5th Northwest D I College Womens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)