#81 Wellesley (12-5)

avg: 1466.26  •  sd: 54.36  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
178 New Hampshire Win 6-3 1305.51 Mar 1st Garden State 2025
69 Rochester Win 5-4 1711.57 Mar 1st Garden State 2025
217 Cornell-B** Win 3-0 1037.77 Ignored Mar 2nd Garden State 2025
127 NYU Win 6-4 1478.52 Mar 2nd Garden State 2025
69 Rochester Loss 3-4 1461.57 Mar 2nd Garden State 2025
119 Yale Win 3-2 1306.21 Mar 2nd Garden State 2025
179 Bates** Win 11-2 1354.54 Ignored Mar 9th Too Hot to Handle
167 Colby Win 10-6 1332.51 Mar 9th Too Hot to Handle
53 McGill Loss 3-9 1136.71 Mar 9th Too Hot to Handle
178 New Hampshire** Win 8-3 1358.82 Ignored Mar 9th Too Hot to Handle
158 Massachusetts Win 11-4 1482.78 Mar 29th Northeast Classic 2025
50 Middlebury Loss 6-8 1502.1 Mar 29th Northeast Classic 2025
111 SUNY-Binghamton Win 12-4 1834.66 Mar 29th Northeast Classic 2025
86 Vermont-B Loss 7-9 1151.88 Mar 29th Northeast Classic 2025
110 Amherst Win 13-7 1794.31 Mar 30th Northeast Classic 2025
90 Ithaca Loss 9-10 1251.07 Mar 30th Northeast Classic 2025
143 SUNY-Geneseo Win 11-5 1600.08 Mar 30th Northeast Classic 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)