#85 California-San Diego-B (14-12)

avg: 1339.27  •  sd: 54.94  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
148 Cal Poly-SLO-B Win 9-5 1410.11 Feb 3rd Stanford Open 2024
186 UCLA-B** Win 13-3 1185.49 Ignored Feb 3rd Stanford Open 2024
37 Carleton College-Eclipse Loss 6-7 1624.41 Feb 3rd Stanford Open 2024
135 Claremont Win 6-5 1103.82 Feb 3rd Stanford Open 2024
28 California Loss 9-10 1731.51 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2024
7 Colorado** Loss 5-14 1826.24 Ignored Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2024
15 Western Washington** Loss 1-15 1532.74 Ignored Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2024
47 Southern California Loss 8-11 1271.05 Feb 18th Presidents Day Invite 2024
20 California-Davis Loss 6-11 1434.74 Feb 18th Presidents Day Invite 2024
29 UCLA Loss 5-9 1324.12 Feb 18th Presidents Day Invite 2024
47 Southern California Loss 8-10 1374 Feb 19th Presidents Day Invite 2024
115 Denver Win 9-6 1538.18 Feb 19th Presidents Day Invite 2024
165 Cal State-Long Beach Win 9-2 1399.57 Mar 9th Irvine Open
184 California-Davis-B** Win 7-0 1196.28 Ignored Mar 9th Irvine Open
75 Lewis & Clark Win 5-4 1500.08 Mar 9th Irvine Open
137 California-B Win 9-2 1547.01 Mar 10th Irvine Open
88 California-Irvine Win 7-6 1434.28 Mar 10th Irvine Open
238 California-San Diego-C** Win 9-1 617.59 Ignored Mar 10th Irvine Open
97 Stanford-B Win 5-4 1360.17 Apr 14th Southwest Dev Womens Conferences 2024
148 Cal Poly-SLO-B Win 8-3 1481.05 Apr 14th Southwest Dev Womens Conferences 2024
238 California-San Diego-C** Win 15-0 617.59 Ignored Apr 14th Southwest Dev Womens Conferences 2024
79 San Diego State Loss 7-9 1080.92 Apr 27th Southwest D I College Womens Regionals 2024
136 Arizona State Win 7-5 1283.15 Apr 27th Southwest D I College Womens Regionals 2024
28 California Loss 4-13 1256.51 Apr 27th Southwest D I College Womens Regionals 2024
88 California-Irvine Loss 6-7 1184.28 Apr 28th Southwest D I College Womens Regionals 2024
69 Grand Canyon Loss 5-8 982.77 Apr 28th Southwest D I College Womens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)