#213 Air Force (3-9)

avg: 746.86  •  sd: 76.36  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
53 Whitman Loss 6-13 948.29 Feb 8th DIII Grand Prix 2025
273 Pacific Lutheran Win 13-8 982.08 Feb 8th DIII Grand Prix 2025
242 Reed Win 13-7 1198 Feb 8th DIII Grand Prix 2025
186 Occidental Loss 9-13 457.35 Feb 9th DIII Grand Prix 2025
34 Lewis & Clark Loss 8-13 1163.14 Feb 9th DIII Grand Prix 2025
95 Claremont Loss 6-13 675.64 Feb 9th DIII Grand Prix 2025
54 Carleton College-CHOP** Loss 2-13 938.06 Ignored Mar 1st D III River City Showdown 2025
99 Oberlin Loss 9-13 847.53 Mar 1st D III River City Showdown 2025
298 Navy Win 11-10 513.51 Mar 1st D III River City Showdown 2025
125 Puget Sound Loss 4-13 540.61 Mar 1st D III River City Showdown 2025
240 Xavier Loss 9-11 395.09 Mar 2nd D III River City Showdown 2025
143 Michigan Tech Loss 9-13 644.34 Mar 2nd D III River City Showdown 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)