#99 Oberlin (12-3)

avg: 1266.1  •  sd: 59.55  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
199 North Carolina State-B Win 10-4 1417.07 Feb 15th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
11 Davenport Loss 5-9 1451.89 Feb 16th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
105 Liberty Win 7-6 1357.91 Feb 16th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
213 Air Force Win 13-9 1165.43 Mar 1st D III River City Showdown 2025
54 Carleton College-CHOP Loss 6-13 938.06 Mar 1st D III River City Showdown 2025
149 Davidson Win 13-10 1382.89 Mar 1st D III River City Showdown 2025
298 Navy** Win 13-5 988.51 Ignored Mar 1st D III River City Showdown 2025
70 Franciscan Loss 9-13 992.12 Mar 2nd D III River City Showdown 2025
78 Richmond Win 11-9 1597.24 Mar 2nd D III River City Showdown 2025
125 Puget Sound Win 13-11 1369.45 Mar 2nd D III River City Showdown 2025
210 Kent State Win 12-8 1199.5 Mar 15th Spring Spook
315 Wright State Win 11-6 837.43 Mar 15th Spring Spook
210 Kent State Win 15-9 1273.82 Mar 16th Spring Spook
150 Kentucky Win 14-7 1635.14 Mar 16th Spring Spook
243 Toledo Win 15-8 1204.74 Mar 16th Spring Spook
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)