#119 Central Florida (9-9)

avg: 1181.39  •  sd: 62.49  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
44 Emory Loss 5-13 1008.19 Jan 31st Florida Warm Up 2025
103 Texas A&M Loss 8-11 875.05 Jan 31st Florida Warm Up 2025
20 Vermont** Loss 0-13 1258.08 Ignored Jan 31st Florida Warm Up 2025
61 Alabama-Huntsville Win 11-9 1713.55 Feb 1st Florida Warm Up 2025
8 Brigham Young** Loss 3-13 1470.56 Ignored Feb 1st Florida Warm Up 2025
40 Wisconsin Loss 8-13 1131.85 Feb 1st Florida Warm Up 2025
43 Virginia Tech Loss 7-13 1054.67 Feb 2nd Florida Warm Up 2025
79 Florida Loss 8-11 982.27 Feb 2nd Florida Warm Up 2025
196 Georgia Tech-B Win 12-3 1439.54 Mar 1st Joint Summit 2025
350 Clemson-B** Win 13-2 710.41 Ignored Mar 1st Joint Summit 2025
257 East Tennessee State** Win 13-4 1180.24 Ignored Mar 1st Joint Summit 2025
344 South Carolina-B** Win 15-6 729.6 Ignored Mar 1st Joint Summit 2025
127 Clemson Win 15-11 1515.31 Mar 2nd Joint Summit 2025
187 North Carolina-B Win 15-12 1164.88 Mar 2nd Joint Summit 2025
30 Ave Maria Loss 6-15 1123.9 Mar 15th Tally Classic XIX
216 Minnesota-Duluth Win 15-13 955.96 Mar 15th Tally Classic XIX
198 Georgia State Win 13-8 1331.46 Mar 15th Tally Classic XIX
127 Clemson Loss 6-7 1009.14 Mar 15th Tally Classic XIX
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)