#30 Ave Maria (12-0)

avg: 1723.9  •  sd: 136.56  •  top 16/20: 16.2%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
270 Texas State** Win 13-3 1124.53 Ignored Feb 22nd Mardi Gras XXXVII
135 Mississippi State** Win 13-5 1711.28 Feb 22nd Mardi Gras XXXVII
94 Tennessee-Chattanooga Win 13-10 1607.7 Feb 22nd Mardi Gras XXXVII
79 Florida Win 12-10 1586 Feb 22nd Mardi Gras XXXVII
182 Miami (Florida)** Win 13-4 1498.89 Ignored Mar 1st Florida Warm Up 2025 Weekend 2
296 Florida-B** Win 13-0 996.37 Ignored Mar 1st Florida Warm Up 2025 Weekend 2
205 Ave Maria-B** Win 13-4 1379.71 Ignored Mar 2nd Florida Warm Up 2025 Weekend 2
367 South Florida-B** Win 13-0 529.54 Ignored Mar 2nd Florida Warm Up 2025 Weekend 2
205 Ave Maria-B** Win 13-1 1379.71 Ignored Mar 2nd Florida Warm Up 2025 Weekend 2
69 Auburn Win 11-7 1895.29 Mar 15th Tally Classic XIX
160 LSU** Win 15-3 1592.08 Ignored Mar 15th Tally Classic XIX
119 Central Florida Win 15-6 1781.39 Mar 15th Tally Classic XIX
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)