#101 Yale (10-9)

avg: 1262.48  •  sd: 82.81  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
180 American Win 12-8 1346.89 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
75 Carnegie Mellon Loss 9-12 1025.88 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
184 East Carolina Win 13-7 1447.24 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
64 James Madison Win 10-8 1720.05 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
159 George Mason Win 14-8 1533.8 Jan 26th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
138 RIT Win 11-8 1458.53 Jan 26th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
115 Vermont-B Loss 8-14 658.68 Jan 26th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
69 Auburn Loss 7-13 870.86 Feb 15th Queen City Tune Up 2025
3 North Carolina Loss 6-13 1606.12 Feb 15th Queen City Tune Up 2025
81 North Carolina-Charlotte Win 13-7 1879.79 Feb 15th Queen City Tune Up 2025
104 Alabama Win 8-7 1363.96 Feb 16th Queen City Tune Up 2025
48 Maryland Loss 3-7 965.66 Feb 16th Queen City Tune Up 2025
75 Carnegie Mellon Loss 11-12 1246.25 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
192 Princeton Win 11-3 1454.4 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
128 SUNY-Binghamton Win 13-8 1624.23 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
52 William & Mary Loss 10-11 1426.49 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
98 Boston College Loss 4-12 671.7 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
179 Pennsylvania Win 12-9 1257.27 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
128 SUNY-Binghamton Loss 8-13 631.91 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)