#69 Auburn (8-8)

avg: 1428.39  •  sd: 76.77  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
101 Yale Win 13-7 1820.01 Feb 15th Queen City Tune Up 2025
81 North Carolina-Charlotte Win 12-9 1667.62 Feb 15th Queen City Tune Up 2025
3 North Carolina** Loss 2-13 1606.12 Ignored Feb 15th Queen City Tune Up 2025
37 North Carolina-Wilmington Loss 6-8 1334.57 Feb 16th Queen City Tune Up 2025
75 Carnegie Mellon Loss 6-7 1246.25 Feb 16th Queen City Tune Up 2025
63 Notre Dame Win 13-8 1955.62 Feb 22nd Easterns Qualifier 2025
64 James Madison Loss 10-11 1332.38 Feb 22nd Easterns Qualifier 2025
128 SUNY-Binghamton Win 10-3 1728.07 Feb 22nd Easterns Qualifier 2025
27 South Carolina Loss 7-13 1222.07 Feb 22nd Easterns Qualifier 2025
66 Dartmouth Loss 10-15 998.64 Feb 23rd Easterns Qualifier 2025
87 Temple Win 14-12 1531.88 Feb 23rd Easterns Qualifier 2025
84 Ohio State Loss 8-15 754.86 Feb 23rd Easterns Qualifier 2025
224 North Florida Win 15-7 1299.73 Mar 15th Tally Classic XIX
139 Florida State Win 14-9 1557.56 Mar 15th Tally Classic XIX
127 Clemson Win 11-4 1734.14 Mar 15th Tally Classic XIX
30 Ave Maria Loss 7-11 1257.01 Mar 15th Tally Classic XIX
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)