#10 Oregon State (19-10)

avg: 1981.68  •  sd: 39.77  •  top 16/20: 99.7%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
5 Oregon Loss 14-15 2068.64 Jan 25th Pac Con 2025
121 Simon Fraser** Win 15-2 1770.02 Ignored Jan 25th Pac Con 2025
22 Western Washington Win 15-12 2150.45 Jan 25th Pac Con 2025
5 Oregon Loss 10-15 1740.03 Jan 26th Pac Con 2025
193 Oregon -B** Win 15-4 1452.83 Ignored Jan 26th Pac Con 2025
22 Western Washington Win 15-12 2150.45 Jan 26th Pac Con 2025
33 California-Santa Barbara Win 11-6 2207.62 Feb 15th Presidents Day Invite 2025
9 California-Santa Cruz Loss 9-10 1896.18 Feb 15th Presidents Day Invite 2025
50 Colorado State Win 13-9 1980.2 Feb 15th Presidents Day Invite 2025
6 Cal Poly-SLO Loss 9-13 1709.05 Feb 16th Presidents Day Invite 2025
14 California Win 12-10 2207.35 Feb 16th Presidents Day Invite 2025
41 California-San Diego Win 11-10 1746.47 Feb 16th Presidents Day Invite 2025
42 Stanford Win 13-7 2174.9 Feb 16th Presidents Day Invite 2025
18 Northeastern Win 13-12 2020.7 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2025
5 Oregon Loss 11-13 1964.8 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2025
16 Brown Win 15-13 2133.91 Mar 1st Smoky Mountain Invite 2025
4 Carleton College Loss 9-11 1954.1 Mar 1st Smoky Mountain Invite 2025
20 Vermont Win 10-9 1983.08 Mar 1st Smoky Mountain Invite 2025
65 Tennessee Win 13-9 1872.11 Mar 1st Smoky Mountain Invite 2025
3 North Carolina Loss 11-15 1824.96 Mar 2nd Smoky Mountain Invite 2025
18 Northeastern Win 15-14 2020.7 Mar 2nd Smoky Mountain Invite 2025
5 Oregon Loss 12-15 1893.14 Mar 2nd Smoky Mountain Invite 2025
8 Brigham Young Loss 14-15 1945.56 Mar 21st Northwest Challenge 2025 mens
23 Victoria Win 14-13 1973.42 Mar 22nd Northwest Challenge 2025 mens
55 UCLA Loss 14-15 1410.24 Mar 22nd Northwest Challenge 2025 mens
22 Western Washington Win 15-14 1974.96 Mar 22nd Northwest Challenge 2025 mens
38 Utah State Win 15-10 2086.23 Mar 23rd Northwest Challenge 2025 mens
7 Washington Win 15-12 2416.62 Mar 23rd Northwest Challenge 2025 mens
22 Western Washington Win 15-13 2064.14 Mar 23rd Northwest Challenge 2025 mens
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)