#367 Dartmouth-B (4-8)

avg: 417.54  •  sd: 105.12  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
374 New Jersey Tech Win 13-7 881.23 Mar 16th Free Tournament
376 SUNY-Fredonia Win 11-10 433.89 Mar 16th Free Tournament
170 Villanova** Loss 4-13 651.96 Ignored Mar 16th Free Tournament
411 RIT-B Win 13-6 334 Mar 16th Free Tournament
130 Penn State-B** Loss 5-15 779.42 Ignored Mar 17th Free Tournament
376 SUNY-Fredonia Loss 8-12 -132.27 Mar 17th Free Tournament
411 RIT-B** Win 11-1 334 Ignored Mar 17th Free Tournament
80 Bates** Loss 3-15 990.96 Ignored Apr 13th North New England D III Mens Conferences 2024
75 Dartmouth** Loss 2-15 1012.49 Ignored Apr 13th North New England D III Mens Conferences 2024
218 Middlebury-B Loss 9-15 539.23 Apr 13th North New England D III Mens Conferences 2024
115 Bowdoin** Loss 2-15 836.94 Ignored Apr 14th North New England D III Mens Conferences 2024
225 Colby** Loss 1-15 435.69 Ignored Apr 14th North New England D III Mens Conferences 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)