#100 Davenport (12-5)

avg: 1219.44  •  sd: 163.02  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
163 Catholic Win 9-4 1412.68 Feb 17th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1 2024
217 Georgetown-B** Win 13-2 892.68 Ignored Feb 17th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1 2024
138 Liberty Win 7-5 1274.9 Feb 17th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1 2024
114 Richmond Loss 7-8 1001.29 Feb 18th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1 2024
63 Tennessee Win 9-7 1757.45 Feb 18th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1 2024
45 Macalester Loss 5-8 1188.94 Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2024
70 Northwestern Loss 6-9 1000.71 Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2024
102 Iowa Win 9-7 1491.6 Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2024
40 Minnesota Loss 2-8 1113.8 Mar 31st Old Capitol Open 2024
96 Iowa State Loss 4-8 688.7 Mar 31st Old Capitol Open 2024
224 Butler** Win 10-3 820.15 Ignored Apr 13th Great Lakes D III Womens Conferences 2024
167 Wheaton (Illinois) Win 8-4 1351.22 Apr 13th Great Lakes D III Womens Conferences 2024
182 Knox** Win 9-1 1209.1 Ignored Apr 13th Great Lakes D III Womens Conferences 2024
247 North Park** Win 13-0 -636.93 Ignored Apr 13th Great Lakes D III Womens Conferences 2024
246 Kalamazoo** Win 11-2 -36.93 Ignored Apr 14th Great Lakes D III Womens Conferences 2024
246 Kalamazoo** Win 12-0 -36.93 Ignored Apr 14th Great Lakes D III Womens Conferences 2024
182 Knox** Win 12-3 1209.1 Ignored Apr 14th Great Lakes D III Womens Conferences 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)