#70 Northwestern (15-12)

avg: 1419.28  •  sd: 72.98  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
9 California-Santa Barbara** Loss 4-15 1726.41 Ignored Jan 27th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
29 UCLA Loss 7-15 1253.18 Jan 27th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
4 Oregon** Loss 2-15 1969.05 Ignored Jan 27th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
30 Cal Poly-SLO Loss 5-13 1241.91 Jan 28th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
14 California-San Diego** Loss 5-15 1542.18 Ignored Jan 28th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
35 St Olaf Win 6-5 1903.48 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2024
77 Missouri Win 9-7 1648.3 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2024
231 Wisconsin-B** Win 8-2 740.11 Ignored Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2024
96 Iowa State Win 10-5 1827.41 Mar 3rd Midwest Throwdown 2024
45 Macalester Loss 5-6 1517.54 Mar 3rd Midwest Throwdown 2024
133 Truman State Loss 6-7 856.98 Mar 3rd Midwest Throwdown 2024
100 Davenport Win 9-6 1638.01 Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2024
45 Macalester Loss 3-8 1042.54 Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2024
161 Wisconsin-Milwaukee Win 7-6 942.87 Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2024
83 Kansas Loss 0-9 743 Mar 31st Old Capitol Open 2024
59 Purdue Loss 1-12 916.42 Mar 31st Old Capitol Open 2024
99 Chicago Win 10-6 1715.93 Apr 13th Illinois D I Womens Conferences 2024
129 Illinois Win 10-5 1611.4 Apr 13th Illinois D I Womens Conferences 2024
160 Loyola-Chicago Win 10-5 1392.74 Apr 13th Illinois D I Womens Conferences 2024
237 Northwestern-B** Win 13-0 621.81 Ignored Apr 13th Illinois D I Womens Conferences 2024
99 Chicago Win 8-4 1784.58 Apr 27th Great Lakes D I College Womens Regionals 2024
141 Grand Valley Win 10-5 1496.59 Apr 27th Great Lakes D I College Womens Regionals 2024
190 Michigan-B** Win 14-2 1153.14 Ignored Apr 27th Great Lakes D I College Womens Regionals 2024
23 Notre Dame Loss 6-9 1512.96 Apr 27th Great Lakes D I College Womens Regionals 2024
99 Chicago Win 10-8 1482.44 Apr 28th Great Lakes D I College Womens Regionals 2024
129 Illinois Win 11-6 1584.2 Apr 28th Great Lakes D I College Womens Regionals 2024
12 Michigan** Loss 3-14 1599.69 Ignored Apr 28th Great Lakes D I College Womens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)