#70 Connecticut (6-7)

avg: 1568.1  •  sd: 65.89  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
112 West Chester Win 10-7 1603.33 Feb 22nd 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2
131 Harvard Win 15-3 1676.14 Feb 22nd 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2
32 Georgetown Loss 6-10 1510.85 Feb 22nd 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2
76 Columbia Win 7-5 1836.05 Feb 23rd 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2
106 Temple Win 13-3 1862.45 Feb 23rd 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2
38 Duke Loss 8-9 1765.8 Feb 23rd 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2
19 Notre Dame** Loss 3-15 1686.09 Ignored Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
21 Ohio State Loss 5-11 1666.62 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
64 South Carolina Loss 1-10 1034.67 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
112 West Chester Win 8-4 1778.47 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
33 Cornell Loss 4-13 1368.51 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
78 Mount Holyoke Win 6-5 1616.17 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
49 William & Mary Loss 2-5 1213.92 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)