#206 Embry-Riddle (8-11)

avg: 1098.9  •  sd: 59.59  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
73 Ave Maria Loss 7-13 1057.17 Feb 24th Florida Warm Up 2024 Weekend 2
383 Florida State-B** Win 13-5 878.94 Ignored Feb 24th Florida Warm Up 2024 Weekend 2
186 Miami (Florida) Loss 8-12 735.21 Feb 24th Florida Warm Up 2024 Weekend 2
309 Florida Gulf Coast Win 10-6 1177.53 Feb 24th Florida Warm Up 2024 Weekend 2
287 Florida Tech Win 12-8 1228.96 Feb 25th Florida Warm Up 2024 Weekend 2
248 Florida-B Win 10-9 1088.86 Feb 25th Florida Warm Up 2024 Weekend 2
274 Air Force Win 13-12 975.51 Mar 2nd FCS D III Tune Up 2024
209 Christopher Newport Loss 12-13 956.48 Mar 2nd FCS D III Tune Up 2024
114 Davidson Loss 9-13 1018.71 Mar 2nd FCS D III Tune Up 2024
129 Michigan Tech Loss 10-13 1053.9 Mar 2nd FCS D III Tune Up 2024
179 North Carolina-Asheville Loss 8-13 703.37 Mar 3rd FCS D III Tune Up 2024
153 Missouri S&T Win 13-10 1633.29 Mar 3rd FCS D III Tune Up 2024
198 Messiah Loss 12-13 1003.99 Mar 3rd FCS D III Tune Up 2024
73 Ave Maria Loss 6-13 1014.71 Apr 13th Southeast D III Mens Conferences 2024
88 Berry Loss 7-13 994.15 Apr 13th Southeast D III Mens Conferences 2024
172 Union (Tennessee) Loss 9-10 1108.68 Apr 13th Southeast D III Mens Conferences 2024
265 Georgia College Win 11-9 1138.81 Apr 13th Southeast D III Mens Conferences 2024
88 Berry Loss 7-15 951.68 Apr 14th Southeast D III Mens Conferences 2024
172 Union (Tennessee) Win 11-4 1833.68 Apr 14th Southeast D III Mens Conferences 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)