#198 Messiah (12-19)

avg: 1128.99  •  sd: 63.9  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
114 Davidson Loss 9-10 1312.27 Feb 17th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1 2024
251 North Carolina State-B Win 12-5 1542.94 Feb 17th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1 2024
325 South Carolina-B Win 11-5 1220.93 Feb 17th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1 2024
110 Davenport Win 12-10 1705.69 Feb 18th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1 2024
64 Maryland Loss 9-12 1332.52 Feb 18th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1 2024
104 Liberty Loss 7-13 933.19 Feb 18th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1 2024
232 Butler Win 13-11 1239.05 Mar 2nd FCS D III Tune Up 2024
84 Elon Loss 9-13 1157.87 Mar 2nd FCS D III Tune Up 2024
179 North Carolina-Asheville Loss 9-13 780.96 Mar 2nd FCS D III Tune Up 2024
81 Lewis & Clark Loss 5-13 987.48 Mar 2nd FCS D III Tune Up 2024
209 Christopher Newport Win 13-11 1310.32 Mar 3rd FCS D III Tune Up 2024
206 Embry-Riddle Win 13-12 1223.9 Mar 3rd FCS D III Tune Up 2024
153 Missouri S&T Loss 11-13 1076.31 Mar 3rd FCS D III Tune Up 2024
175 Delaware Loss 7-10 832.22 Mar 23rd Garden State 2024
170 Villanova Loss 9-10 1126.96 Mar 23rd Garden State 2024
150 West Chester Loss 7-10 924.86 Mar 23rd Garden State 2024
175 Delaware Win 11-6 1768.58 Mar 24th Garden State 2024
212 West Virginia Loss 8-11 713.89 Mar 24th Garden State 2024
150 West Chester Loss 10-13 986.38 Mar 24th Garden State 2024
212 West Virginia Loss 7-9 800.17 Mar 24th Garden State 2024
244 Dickinson Loss 7-10 589.43 Apr 13th West Penn D III Mens Conferences 2024
174 Grove City Loss 9-10 1099.99 Apr 13th West Penn D III Mens Conferences 2024
- Robert Morris Win 11-5 1128.98 Apr 13th West Penn D III Mens Conferences 2024
285 Penn State-Behrend Loss 5-11 200.45 Apr 13th West Penn D III Mens Conferences 2024
285 Penn State-Behrend Win 15-7 1400.45 Apr 14th West Penn D III Mens Conferences 2024
68 Franciscan Win 13-12 1785.48 Apr 27th Ohio Valley D III College Mens Regionals 2024
174 Grove City Loss 6-13 624.99 Apr 27th Ohio Valley D III College Mens Regionals 2024
234 Haverford Win 13-4 1599.52 Apr 27th Ohio Valley D III College Mens Regionals 2024
168 Kenyon Win 13-12 1377.36 Apr 27th Ohio Valley D III College Mens Regionals 2024
68 Franciscan Loss 10-13 1332.34 Apr 28th Ohio Valley D III College Mens Regionals 2024
123 Oberlin Loss 9-13 978.15 Apr 28th Ohio Valley D III College Mens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)