#153 Missouri S&T (16-15)

avg: 1305.15  •  sd: 56.88  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
228 Oklahoma State Win 10-8 1284.9 Feb 17th Dust Bowl 2024
233 Oklahoma Win 9-7 1285.04 Feb 17th Dust Bowl 2024
243 Nebraska Win 13-7 1540.97 Feb 17th Dust Bowl 2024
190 Texas-Dallas Loss 10-11 1033.34 Feb 18th Dust Bowl 2024
143 Truman State Loss 5-15 737.06 Feb 18th Dust Bowl 2024
233 Oklahoma Win 15-11 1386.86 Feb 18th Dust Bowl 2024
114 Davidson Loss 8-13 941.11 Mar 2nd FCS D III Tune Up 2024
81 Lewis & Clark Loss 11-13 1358.64 Mar 2nd FCS D III Tune Up 2024
176 Navy Loss 9-13 793.86 Mar 2nd FCS D III Tune Up 2024
123 Oberlin Loss 7-13 839.19 Mar 2nd FCS D III Tune Up 2024
206 Embry-Riddle Loss 10-13 770.76 Mar 3rd FCS D III Tune Up 2024
198 Messiah Win 13-11 1357.83 Mar 3rd FCS D III Tune Up 2024
173 Xavier Loss 7-13 675.9 Mar 3rd FCS D III Tune Up 2024
348 Kansas State** Win 13-2 1125.33 Ignored Mar 23rd Free State Classic
356 Wichita State** Win 13-3 1089.08 Ignored Mar 23rd Free State Classic
184 Wisconsin-La Crosse Win 11-7 1653.32 Mar 23rd Free State Classic
228 Oklahoma State Win 12-7 1542.74 Mar 23rd Free State Classic
165 John Brown Loss 8-9 1143.53 Mar 24th Free State Classic
243 Nebraska Win 12-6 1562.75 Mar 24th Free State Classic
143 Truman State Win 9-8 1462.06 Mar 24th Free State Classic
45 St Olaf Loss 12-14 1590.39 Mar 24th Free State Classic
231 Harding Win 11-6 1562 Apr 13th Ozarks D III Mens Conferences 2024
165 John Brown Loss 9-11 1019.32 Apr 13th Ozarks D III Mens Conferences 2024
143 Truman State Loss 10-13 1008.92 Apr 13th Ozarks D III Mens Conferences 2024
41 Oklahoma Christian Loss 5-13 1252.87 Apr 13th Ozarks D III Mens Conferences 2024
119 Colorado College Win 13-8 1904.32 Apr 27th South Central D III College Mens Regionals 2024
41 Oklahoma Christian Loss 7-15 1252.87 Apr 27th South Central D III College Mens Regionals 2024
281 Trinity Win 14-7 1409.94 Apr 27th South Central D III College Mens Regionals 2024
119 Colorado College Win 14-12 1629.11 Apr 28th South Central D III College Mens Regionals 2024
101 Colorado Mines Win 15-13 1726.26 Apr 28th South Central D III College Mens Regionals 2024
41 Oklahoma Christian Loss 4-15 1252.87 Apr 28th South Central D III College Mens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)