#123 East Carolina (11-9)

avg: 1073.86  •  sd: 75.42  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
212 Auburn Win 9-4 928.01 Mar 16th Southerns 2024
194 Georgia College Win 13-3 1119.2 Mar 16th Southerns 2024
218 Georgia-B** Win 12-1 884.36 Ignored Mar 16th Southerns 2024
127 Wisconsin-Eau Claire Win 11-6 1587.76 Mar 16th Southerns 2024
212 Auburn** Win 12-1 928.01 Ignored Mar 17th Southerns 2024
37 Carleton College-Eclipse** Loss 4-15 1149.41 Ignored Mar 17th Southerns 2024
127 Wisconsin-Eau Claire Win 10-5 1614.97 Mar 17th Southerns 2024
183 South Carolina-B Win 6-2 1206.54 Mar 23rd Needle in a Ho Stack 2024
89 Virginia Tech Loss 3-6 760.22 Mar 23rd Needle in a Ho Stack 2024
183 South Carolina-B Win 9-2 1206.54 Mar 24th Needle in a Ho Stack 2024
31 Alabama-Huntsville Loss 6-11 1285.41 Mar 24th Needle in a Ho Stack 2024
120 Charleston Loss 6-8 781.66 Mar 24th Needle in a Ho Stack 2024
162 Emory Win 9-3 1416.03 Mar 24th Needle in a Ho Stack 2024
41 South Carolina** Loss 4-10 1098.94 Ignored Apr 13th Carolina D I Womens Conferences 2024
120 Charleston Loss 4-6 716.54 Apr 13th Carolina D I Womens Conferences 2024
225 North Carolina-Wilmington** Win 12-1 817.16 Ignored Apr 13th Carolina D I Womens Conferences 2024
6 North Carolina** Loss 0-15 1899.4 Ignored Apr 13th Carolina D I Womens Conferences 2024
120 Charleston Loss 4-13 482.15 Apr 14th Carolina D I Womens Conferences 2024
188 Wake Forest Win 15-2 1166.45 Apr 14th Carolina D I Womens Conferences 2024
56 North Carolina State Loss 4-14 943.77 Apr 14th Carolina D I Womens Conferences 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)