#56 North Carolina State (13-10)

avg: 1543.77  •  sd: 70.59  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
62 Duke Win 13-3 2084.05 Jan 20th Carolina Kickoff Womens 2024
6 North Carolina Loss 6-9 2080.83 Jan 20th Carolina Kickoff Womens 2024
151 North Carolina-B** Win 14-0 1467.95 Ignored Jan 20th Carolina Kickoff Womens 2024
103 Clemson Win 14-3 1799.73 Jan 21st Carolina Kickoff Womens 2024
6 North Carolina** Loss 2-7 1899.4 Ignored Jan 21st Carolina Kickoff Womens 2024
151 North Carolina-B** Win 15-1 1467.95 Ignored Jan 21st Carolina Kickoff Womens 2024
112 Carnegie Mellon Win 15-4 1734.03 Feb 24th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
12 Michigan Loss 11-15 1818.52 Feb 24th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
39 SUNY-Binghamton Win 12-7 2240.86 Feb 24th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
51 Virginia Loss 8-9 1452.69 Feb 25th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
126 Massachusetts Win 11-3 1642.94 Feb 25th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
16 Pennsylvania Loss 7-10 1709.46 Feb 25th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
104 Appalachian State Loss 7-8 1071.7 Apr 13th Carolina D I Womens Conferences 2024
103 Clemson Win 9-8 1324.73 Apr 13th Carolina D I Womens Conferences 2024
62 Duke Loss 6-9 1065.49 Apr 13th Carolina D I Womens Conferences 2024
188 Wake Forest** Win 14-5 1166.45 Ignored Apr 13th Carolina D I Womens Conferences 2024
103 Clemson Win 13-6 1799.73 Apr 14th Carolina D I Womens Conferences 2024
123 East Carolina Win 14-4 1673.86 Apr 14th Carolina D I Womens Conferences 2024
41 South Carolina Loss 9-10 1573.94 May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2024
50 Georgetown Win 12-11 1726.27 May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2024
89 Virginia Tech Loss 11-14 993.58 May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2024
138 Liberty Win 11-5 1546.76 May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2024
36 William & Mary Loss 5-15 1159.89 May 5th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)