#78 Carleton College-CHOP (28-8)

avg: 1604.23  •  sd: 48.07  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
31 North Carolina-Charlotte Loss 4-15 1320.89 Jan 27th Carolina Kickoff 2024
97 Lehigh Win 15-11 1907.5 Jan 27th Carolina Kickoff 2024
50 Duke Win 15-14 1897.52 Jan 27th Carolina Kickoff 2024
90 Tennessee Win 15-11 1925.01 Jan 28th Carolina Kickoff 2024
87 Georgetown Loss 9-14 1080.54 Jan 28th Carolina Kickoff 2024
114 Davidson Win 15-8 2002.08 Jan 28th Carolina Kickoff 2024
122 Minnesota-B Loss 11-12 1275.63 Feb 10th Ugly Dome 2024
134 Macalester Win 12-8 1813.27 Feb 10th Ugly Dome 2024
94 Wisconsin-Eau Claire Win 11-10 1659.71 Feb 10th Ugly Dome 2024
45 St Olaf Win 13-10 2139.48 Feb 10th Ugly Dome 2024
299 Minnesota-C** Win 13-3 1318.6 Ignored Feb 10th Ugly Dome 2024
294 Knox** Win 13-4 1337.81 Ignored Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2024
143 Truman State Win 11-3 1937.06 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2024
51 Missouri Loss 7-10 1375.22 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2024
227 St John's (Minnesota) Win 13-1 1629.82 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2024
45 St Olaf Loss 6-11 1264.65 Mar 3rd Midwest Throwdown 2024
134 Macalester Win 8-5 1825.72 Mar 3rd Midwest Throwdown 2024
107 Iowa State Loss 8-11 1110.53 Mar 3rd Midwest Throwdown 2024
304 Luther College Win 13-7 1252.5 Mar 16th Southerns 2024
261 Georgia Tech-B** Win 13-3 1504.28 Ignored Mar 16th Southerns 2024
94 Wisconsin-Eau Claire Win 13-8 2030.87 Mar 16th Southerns 2024
246 Georgia Southern** Win 13-5 1570.37 Ignored Mar 16th Southerns 2024
304 Luther College** Win 15-3 1294.97 Ignored Mar 17th Southerns 2024
224 Georgia-B Win 15-3 1639.36 Mar 17th Southerns 2024
94 Wisconsin-Eau Claire Win 13-11 1763.55 Mar 17th Southerns 2024
269 Winona State** Win 15-4 1463.91 Ignored Apr 13th Northwoods D III Mens Conferences 2024
278 St Thomas** Win 15-4 1441.12 Ignored Apr 13th Northwoods D III Mens Conferences 2024
134 Macalester Win 15-5 1972.12 Apr 13th Northwoods D III Mens Conferences 2024
45 St Olaf Loss 8-15 1246.53 Apr 14th Northwoods D III Mens Conferences 2024
134 Macalester Win 10-9 1497.12 Apr 14th Northwoods D III Mens Conferences 2024
193 Grinnell Win 14-10 1553.33 Apr 27th North Central D III College Mens Regionals 2024
278 St Thomas** Win 15-1 1441.12 Ignored Apr 27th North Central D III College Mens Regionals 2024
304 Luther College** Win 15-3 1294.97 Ignored Apr 27th North Central D III College Mens Regionals 2024
129 Michigan Tech Win 15-13 1596.23 Apr 28th North Central D III College Mens Regionals 2024
45 St Olaf Loss 8-15 1246.53 Apr 28th North Central D III College Mens Regionals 2024
134 Macalester Win 15-11 1753.28 Apr 28th North Central D III College Mens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)