#50 Duke (19-11)

avg: 1772.52  •  sd: 48.08  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
2 North Carolina** Loss 6-15 1886.33 Ignored Jan 26th Carolina Kickoff 2024
78 Carleton College-CHOP Loss 14-15 1479.23 Jan 27th Carolina Kickoff 2024
97 Lehigh Win 15-10 1979.94 Jan 27th Carolina Kickoff 2024
31 North Carolina-Charlotte Win 15-14 2045.89 Jan 27th Carolina Kickoff 2024
72 Appalachian State Win 14-11 1941.99 Jan 28th Carolina Kickoff 2024
42 South Carolina Loss 13-15 1632.59 Jan 28th Carolina Kickoff 2024
16 Penn State Loss 9-12 1802.86 Jan 28th Carolina Kickoff 2024
47 Alabama Win 13-10 2112.95 Feb 24th Easterns Qualifier 2024
16 Penn State Loss 6-13 1548.22 Feb 24th Easterns Qualifier 2024
64 Maryland Win 12-7 2198.4 Feb 24th Easterns Qualifier 2024
62 Purdue Win 13-5 2289.75 Feb 24th Easterns Qualifier 2024
44 Virginia Tech Win 12-11 1939.41 Feb 25th Easterns Qualifier 2024
42 South Carolina Loss 12-15 1546.27 Feb 25th Easterns Qualifier 2024
57 Virginia Loss 11-14 1425.49 Feb 25th Easterns Qualifier 2024
31 North Carolina-Charlotte Win 11-10 2045.89 Feb 25th Easterns Qualifier 2024
89 Florida State Win 15-12 1851.77 Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2024
59 William & Mary Win 15-12 2027.79 Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2024
166 RIT Win 15-8 1832.63 Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2024
65 Richmond Win 12-11 1799.99 Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2024
64 Maryland Win 15-13 1892.07 Mar 31st Atlantic Coast Open 2024
59 William & Mary Win 15-13 1941.48 Mar 31st Atlantic Coast Open 2024
146 Clemson Win 14-8 1854.39 Apr 13th Carolina D I Mens Conferences 2024
2 North Carolina** Loss 4-15 1886.33 Ignored Apr 13th Carolina D I Mens Conferences 2024
215 East Carolina** Win 15-4 1665.59 Ignored Apr 13th Carolina D I Mens Conferences 2024
27 North Carolina-Wilmington Loss 6-13 1395.28 Apr 13th Carolina D I Mens Conferences 2024
72 Appalachian State Win 15-8 2193.46 Apr 14th Carolina D I Mens Conferences 2024
59 William & Mary Loss 9-15 1211.82 May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2024
104 Liberty Loss 14-15 1365.72 May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2024
147 Maryland-Baltimore County Win 15-14 1440.87 May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2024
126 Towson Win 9-6 1807.66 May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)