#92 Pennsylvania (19-16)

avg: 1539.36  •  sd: 61.01  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
79 Case Western Reserve Loss 8-9 1470.69 Jan 27th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
75 Dartmouth Loss 7-10 1222.82 Jan 27th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
59 William & Mary Loss 7-13 1169.77 Jan 27th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
307 Mary Washington** Win 13-4 1283.16 Ignored Jan 27th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
166 RIT Win 15-10 1721.43 Jan 28th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
104 Liberty Loss 8-11 1125.11 Jan 28th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
204 Virginia Commonwealth Win 15-0 1707.98 Jan 28th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
163 Columbia Win 11-6 1822.12 Feb 5th New Jersey Warmup
93 Princeton Loss 11-12 1413.03 Feb 10th New Jersey Warmup
162 Rutgers Loss 7-12 762.03 Feb 10th New Jersey Warmup
120 Syracuse Loss 9-13 984.7 Feb 10th New Jersey Warmup
163 Columbia Win 15-8 1840.23 Feb 11th New Jersey Warmup
191 NYU Win 13-9 1575.37 Feb 11th New Jersey Warmup
93 Princeton Loss 13-14 1413.03 Feb 11th New Jersey Warmup
163 Columbia Win 11-5 1875.42 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2024
85 Cornell Win 11-10 1700.01 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2024
152 Harvard Win 10-8 1573.91 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2024
131 Yale Loss 7-10 989.71 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2024
79 Case Western Reserve Loss 7-13 1038.16 Mar 31st East Coast Invite 2024
102 Connecticut Win 11-10 1620.12 Mar 31st East Coast Invite 2024
85 Cornell Loss 6-7 1450.01 Mar 31st East Coast Invite 2024
162 Rutgers Win 11-6 1829.24 Mar 31st East Coast Invite 2024
56 Temple Loss 5-12 1143.67 Apr 13th East Penn D I Mens Conferences 2024
170 Villanova Win 13-3 1851.96 Apr 13th East Penn D I Mens Conferences 2024
150 West Chester Loss 6-9 895.96 Apr 13th East Penn D I Mens Conferences 2024
97 Lehigh Win 10-6 2022.5 Apr 13th East Penn D I Mens Conferences 2024
289 Drexel** Win 13-2 1369.67 Ignored Apr 14th East Penn D I Mens Conferences 2024
150 West Chester Win 10-4 1914.53 Apr 14th East Penn D I Mens Conferences 2024
97 Lehigh Loss 6-11 979.64 Apr 14th East Penn D I Mens Conferences 2024
77 Carnegie Mellon Win 15-11 1988.63 May 4th Ohio Valley D I College Mens Regionals 2024
16 Penn State** Loss 4-15 1548.22 Ignored May 4th Ohio Valley D I College Mens Regionals 2024
130 Penn State-B Win 15-3 1979.42 May 4th Ohio Valley D I College Mens Regionals 2024
127 Pittsburgh-B Win 15-10 1842.33 May 4th Ohio Valley D I College Mens Regionals 2024
79 Case Western Reserve Win 11-8 1961.3 May 5th Ohio Valley D I College Mens Regionals 2024
56 Temple Loss 10-15 1290.06 May 5th Ohio Valley D I College Mens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)