#106 Northwestern (16-16)

avg: 1482.91  •  sd: 49.47  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
17 Brigham Young** Loss 2-15 1520.63 Ignored Jan 27th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
34 California-San Diego Loss 9-15 1387.97 Jan 27th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
22 Washington Loss 5-15 1433.49 Jan 27th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
24 UCLA Loss 5-15 1420.7 Jan 27th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
60 California-Santa Barbara Loss 11-14 1402.26 Jan 28th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
113 Southern California Win 13-8 1950.19 Jan 28th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
161 Saint Louis Win 10-9 1408.47 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2024
257 Wisconsin-B Win 10-7 1307.51 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2024
134 Macalester Win 11-8 1737.73 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2024
107 Iowa State Win 10-7 1865.8 Mar 3rd Midwest Throwdown 2024
51 Missouri Loss 8-9 1639.88 Mar 3rd Midwest Throwdown 2024
94 Wisconsin-Eau Claire Loss 6-9 1116.14 Mar 3rd Midwest Throwdown 2024
119 Colorado College Win 13-6 2008.16 Mar 30th Huck Finn 2024
129 Michigan Tech Win 12-9 1727.41 Mar 30th Huck Finn 2024
105 Wisconsin-Milwaukee Win 12-7 2005.38 Mar 30th Huck Finn 2024
111 Vanderbilt Win 9-8 1582.16 Mar 30th Huck Finn 2024
47 Alabama Win 12-10 2022.93 Mar 31st Huck Finn 2024
45 St Olaf Loss 10-12 1573.22 Mar 31st Huck Finn 2024
67 Stanford Loss 7-13 1114.03 Mar 31st Huck Finn 2024
39 Illinois Loss 8-15 1320.57 Apr 13th Illinois D I Mens Conferences 2024
263 Illinois State Win 15-7 1498.19 Apr 13th Illinois D I Mens Conferences 2024
324 Illinois-Chicago** Win 15-4 1222.98 Ignored Apr 13th Illinois D I Mens Conferences 2024
236 Loyola-Chicago Win 15-5 1590.9 Apr 13th Illinois D I Mens Conferences 2024
61 Chicago Win 9-8 1819.33 Apr 14th Illinois D I Mens Conferences 2024
39 Illinois Loss 7-15 1285.37 Apr 14th Illinois D I Mens Conferences 2024
323 Purdue-B Win 14-10 1029.34 Apr 27th Great Lakes D I College Mens Regionals 2024
96 Notre Dame Loss 12-15 1230.5 Apr 27th Great Lakes D I College Mens Regionals 2024
62 Purdue Loss 6-15 1089.75 Apr 27th Great Lakes D I College Mens Regionals 2024
145 Southern Illinois-Edwardsville Win 14-13 1456.75 Apr 27th Great Lakes D I College Mens Regionals 2024
83 Indiana Loss 8-11 1215.71 Apr 28th Great Lakes D I College Mens Regionals 2024
37 Michigan Loss 11-15 1504.58 Apr 28th Great Lakes D I College Mens Regionals 2024
49 Michigan State Loss 9-15 1262.99 Apr 28th Great Lakes D I College Mens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)