Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2018-19 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
1 Great Lakes 0.72 Steamboat 50.00%,   Columbus Cocktails 14.70%,   Hybrid 7.00%,  
3 Mid-Atlantic 2.37 AMP 100.00%,   Space Heater 78.40%,   Loco 38.90%,   Rally 10.80%,   Alloy 8.40%,  
2 North Central 1.25 Drag'n Thrust 100.00%,   Chalice 21.00%,   The Chad Larson Experience 2.90%,   No Touching! 0.80%,   Minnesota Star Power 0.10%,  
3 Northeast 2.92 Wild Card 99.90%,   Slow White 99.50%,   Snake Country 91.20%,   XIST 1.20%,  
3 Northwest 2.88 Seattle Mixtape 100.00%,   BFG 99.30%,   Lochsa 64.40%,   MOONDOG 24.00%,   Lights Out 0.20%,  
2 South Central 1.8 shame. 98.60%,   Love Tractor 47.60%,   Waterloo 26.80%,   Public Enemy 7.50%,  
2 Southeast 2.08 Toro 86.90%,   Bucket 80.70%,   Weird 39.60%,   'Shine 0.60%,   Storm 0.30%,   Superlame 0.10%,  
2 Southwest 1.99 Mischief 95.30%,   Blackbird 74.80%,   Polar Bears 23.90%,   Lotus 4.50%,   Classy 0.10%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region AC GL ME NE NC NW OV SC SE SW
Initial 0.717 2.365 1.248 2.918 2.879 1.805 2.082 1.986
Autos (all @ 1) -0.283 1.365 0.248 1.918 1.879 0.805 1.082 0.986
Northeast (@ 2) -0.283 1.365 0.248 0.918 1.879 0.805 1.082 0.986
Northwest (@ 2) -0.283 1.365 0.248 0.918 0.879 0.805 1.082 0.986
Mid-Atlantic (@ 2) -0.283 0.365 0.248 0.918 0.879 0.805 1.082 0.986
Southeast (@ 2) -0.283 0.365 0.248 0.918 0.879 0.805 0.082 0.986
Southwest (@ 2) -0.283 0.365 0.248 0.918 0.879 0.805 0.082 -0.014
Northeast (@ 3) -0.283 0.365 0.248 -0.082 0.879 0.805 0.082 -0.014
Northwest (@ 3) -0.283 0.365 0.248 -0.082 -0.121 0.805 0.082 -0.014
South Central (@ 2) -0.283 0.365 0.248 -0.082 -0.121 -0.195 0.082 -0.014
Mid-Atlantic (@ 3) -0.283 -0.635 0.248 -0.082 -0.121 -0.195 0.082 -0.014
North Central (@ 2) -0.283 -0.635 -0.752 -0.082 -0.121 -0.195 0.082 -0.014
Total 1 3 2 3 3 2 2 2

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 Drag'n Thrust 1 2151.21 67.84 1/11 13-2
2 AMP 1 2120.41 72.86 1/12 16-1
3 Seattle Mixtape 1 2113.3 50.2 1/8 19-2
4 Wild Card 0.999 2033.54 59.32 1/19 16-3
5 Slow White 0.995 1996.16 62.36 1/23 16-4
6 BFG 0.993 1956.29 53.69 1/23 13-5
7 shame. 0.986 2005.62 74.14 1/22 9-3
8 Mischief 0.953 1929.62 58.66 2/24 11-9
9 Snake Country 0.912 1878.96 38.82 4/26 8-5
10 Toro 0.869 1912.55 81.71 1/37 10-4
11 Bucket 0.807 1889.27 77.37 1/32 10-3
12 Space Heater 0.784 1892.97 84.02 1/36 4-6
13 Blackbird 0.748 1863.02 59.55 5/28 7-5
14 Lochsa 0.644 1853.06 78.18 3/34 12-6
15 Steamboat 0.5 1829.59 69.81 4/36 11-3
16 Love Tractor 0.476 1815.82 68.95 5/39 12-7
17 Weird 0.396 1811.3 63.23 4/34 16-4
18 Loco 0.389 1806.31 60.3 5/33 16-4
19 Waterloo 0.268 1724.68 150.9 1/77 10-0
20 MOONDOG 0.24 1786.25 57.98 7/36 14-5
21 Polar Bears 0.239 1783.29 60.16 7/36 6-6
22 Chalice 0.21 1758.46 81.27 4/44 15-3
23 Columbus Cocktails 0.147 1770.49 50.78 9/35 18-10
24 Rally 0.108 1737.92 68.84 6/45 14-10
25 Alloy 0.084 1735.33 67.95 8/43 13-11
26 Public Enemy 0.075 1720.86 75.94 7/45 11-6
27 Hybrid 0.07 1711.45 79.03 9/47 15-3
28 Lotus 0.045 1688.53 83.46 7/52 14-6
29 The Chad Larson Experience 0.029 1669.25 87.21 10/58 12-6
30 XIST 0.012 1661.04 73.56 8/53 8-11
31 No Touching! 0.008 1634.55 74.22 10/58 4-7
32 'Shine 0.006 1557.09 108.7 14/82 11-2
33 Storm 0.003 1650.89 63.19 15/50 14-7
34 Lights Out 0.002 1635.66 71.39 14/55 9-7
35 Superlame 0.001 1606.25 72.82 15/58 14-0
36 Classy 0.001 1595.72 72.99 15/64 11-6
37 Minnesota Star Power 0.001 1486.05 91.56 15/92 6-8
38 NOISE 0 1608.95 42.73 23/48 6-9
39 Woodwork 0 1591.25 55.34 18/54 12-8
40 League of Shadows 0 1578.65 57.21 22/58 13-8
41 Boomtown 0 1556.88 70.48 19/66 16-0
42 Jughandle 0 1516.12 73.74 24/73 3-12
43 Birdfruit 0 1504.31 64.51 24/76 5-11
44 Garage Sale 0 1502.04 51.67 29/65 13-0
45 Murmur 0 1501.28 64.88 24/65 9-5
46 Mesteño 0 1495.93 63.49 25/70 7-10
47 Pivot 0 1492.29 119.03 18/96 10-1
48 Huntsville Outlaws 0 1471.64 89.61 19/83 18-2
49 Sparkle Ponies 0 1469.52 57.22 30/70 8-6
50 BW Ultimate 0 1458.37 82.25 24/80 2-9
51 7 Sins 0 1433.8 63.76 32/83 15-4
52 Malice in Wonderland 0 1419.86 52.65 40/77 8-6
53 Moontower 0 1415.87 103.8 18/97 14-1
54 Darkwing 0 1411.86 63.73 35/88 16-5
55 Firefly 0 1408.63 76.06 32/92 9-5
56 Ouzel 0 1403.94 119.72 17/120 6-0
57 8 Bit Heroes 0 1382.36 56.61 37/84 6-14
58 Toast 0 1379.94 56.61 38/86 14-5
59 Cutthroat 0 1367.56 102.02 28/105 8-4
60 Grand Army 0 1353.87 73.65 34/97 4-9
61 Flight Club 0 1341.12 121.99 23/130 5-7
62 Metro North 0 1340.24 52.77 44/91 7-13
63 HVAC 0 1332.82 99.65 33/111 9-3
64 The Administrators 0 1328.18 53.05 46/96 11-6
65 Rubix 0 1325.47 61.34 40/94 7-10
66 Memphis STAX 0 1322.79 93.95 33/111 12-6
67 American Barbecue 0 1314.04 64.89 39/102 10-10
68 Northern Comfort 0 1305.64 46.98 50/94 12-10
69 JLP 0 1305.38 50.01 49/92 7-13
70 Trash Pandas 0 1291.82 49.09 49/97 21-7
71 Chaotic Good 0 1289.9 53.41 48/99 12-8
72 Bexar 0 1281.29 77.13 42/120 11-5
73 Petey's Pirates 0 1279.09 69.57 44/110 14-3
74 Old #7 0 1275.83 99.97 36/138 5-1
75 Donuts 0 1272.06 55.58 48/96 14-6
76 Tyrannis 0 1259.41 59.43 42/112 15-5
77 blOKC party 0 1246.77 48.58 50/104 14-8
78 Auburn HeyDay 0 1241.66 76.03 50/125 14-7
79 Alchemy 0 1240.25 65.46 48/112 8-5
80 Happy Hour 0 1234.37 84.45 46/122 7-3
81 Ant Madness 0 1224.17 53.66 55/111 13-9
82 FlyTrap 0 1215.92 63.44 52/123 13-8
83 PanIC 0 1212.9 76.3 51/132 11-10
84 Garbage Plates 0 1203.65 83.87 38/133 10-1
85 Risky Business 0 1195.28 76.92 51/140 8-8
86 Sunken Circus 0 1194.5 59.14 54/117 17-3
87 Mutiny 0 1187.5 68.85 54/138 15-6
88 Absolute Zero 0 1181.47 57.06 62/124 6-8
89 The Bandits 0 1180.33 45.03 65/124 14-6
90 Fleet 0 1177.27 77.11 54/134 8-5
91 The Feminists 0 1169.32 60.97 59/122 8-7
92 m'kay Ultimate 0 1162.13 62.09 64/131 8-6
93 Garbage 0 1148.07 68.37 61/134 8-8
94 Mojo Jojo 0 1147.04 87.3 54/146 10-4
95 Pegasus 0 1139.98 80.58 62/145 6-10
96 Buckwild 0 1132.95 78.65 53/147 8-5
97 Impact 0 1129.37 82.55 58/148 6-10
98 Robot 0 1113.22 67.84 64/146 8-6
99 Shakedown 0 1096.67 56.12 69/142 13-13
100 Rat City 0 1090.95 61.44 69/143 13-8
101 Seoulmates 0 1085.25 58.19 72/144 15-5
102 Platypi 0 1077 71.05 64/147 8-5
103 Birds 0 1075.54 83.63 63/153 9-3
104 Battleship 0 1075.25 95.01 58/166 1-6
105 Soft Boiled 0 1074.33 61.84 76/144 6-6
106 Nothing's Great Again 0 1067.76 74.09 70/150 3-8
107 sKNO cone 0 1047.2 86.76 66/165 7-7
108 Tex Mix 0 1045.84 61.99 74/146 7-8
109 Bird 0 1045.25 61.15 77/149 6-9
110 California Burrito 0 1043.62 92.62 51/156 3-4
111 Eat Lightning 0 1041.72 76.15 73/163 7-6
112 Peep Show 0 1040.27 60.89 83/152 11-8
113 Point of No Return 0 1032.26 70.51 73/157 8-6
114 NC Galaxy 0 1030.37 65.75 80/150 6-9
115 Pandamonium 0 1029.94 55.67 79/155 14-6
116 Legion 0 1029.4 45.21 86/143 11-8
117 Argo 0 1029.24 67.9 82/154 8-5
118 Hive 0 1025.29 57.33 81/146 6-4
119 Instant Karma 0 1014.48 59.63 88/149 5-6
120 Happy Valley 0 1009.39 82.3 75/170 8-5
121 Funk 0 1008.47 55.42 88/155 9-7
122 Night Shift 0 1004.09 60.83 84/154 12-8
123 Crucible 0 1002.79 58.03 86/153 14-7
124 Stoke 0 1000.67 99.79 66/172 5-6
125 Liquid Hustle 0 999.01 75.84 83/167 6-7
126 Default 0 995.16 83.3 68/158 4-2
127 Tequila Mockingbird 0 988.49 55.69 89/156 8-11
128 Bulleit Train 0 983.24 64.87 83/157 6-7
129 Melt 0 967.02 52.07 100/156 13-7
130 EMU 0 963.48 70.85 88/164 13-5
131 Mad Udderburn 0 963.1 83.26 68/175 9-5
132 Hellbenders 0 958.75 61.9 89/158 6-12
133 ELevate 0 957.6 83.14 79/182 8-4
134 Jackpot 0 955.83 55.53 96/160 12-11
135 Family Style 0 939.94 132.91 70/204 2-5
136 Goose Lee 0 930.18 93.84 62/191 5-9
137 BATL Cows 0 929.78 63.83 93/169 9-12
138 Buffalo Lake Effect 0 925.26 80.45 87/178 8-12
139 Los Heros 0 924.94 94.68 79/180 8-4
140 Choco Ghost House 0 919.76 79.52 86/173 7-4
141 Mixed Signals 0 906.64 81.8 82/174 0-6
142 Superstition 0 884.11 43.58 120/168 6-6
143 OutKast 0 883.71 69.04 98/188 11-9
144 Igneous Ultimate 0 874.04 59.91 114/179 4-7
145 Discney 0 874.02 78.25 91/186 3-3
146 Farm Show 0 873.72 92.19 95/194 4-8
147 Rowdy 0 857.44 53.93 116/176 6-15
148 Scarecrow 0 843.9 64.36 107/183 9-10
149 HAOS 0 829.06 78.43 106/191 7-5
150 Fable 0 824.96 96.97 90/202 3-4
151 Wildstyle 0 818.58 69.68 110/195 8-8
152 WHUF* 0 817.5 176.67 67/234 3-3
153 Philly Twist 0 817.33 86.88 107/203 5-7
154 Possum 0 814.49 55.47 126/195 12-10
155 Rocket LawnChair 0 807.01 63.32 116/192 13-5
156 Prion 0 793.1 71.68 121/191 8-11
157 Mud Turtles 0 771.23 90.9 111/209 6-9
158 Sad Mountain 0 768.24 102.09 101/206 4-2
159 Piedmont United 0 765.26 100.53 105/209 5-8
160 Magic City Mayhem 0 763.79 74.86 121/199 8-12
161 Mishigami 0 762.54 110.42 108/210 3-3
162 Moonshine 0 752.89 48.33 130/190 11-11
163 Pushovers-B 0 742 53.8 135/195 7-9
164 APEX 0 735.47 64.89 132/204 7-15
165 Thunderpants the Magic Dragon 0 731.25 72.82 128/202 4-6
166 Mousetrap 0 726.41 63.83 134/203 11-9
167 LORD 0 726.13 70.29 132/206 9-9
168 Stackcats 0 722.14 72.01 127/202 7-11
169 Long Beach Legacy 0 717.37 65.93 143/207 4-8
170 Chili Poppers 0 714.2 70.23 130/212 5-11
171 Nautilus 0 710.13 99.76 119/219 6-7
172 Spoiler Alert 0 701.25 65.31 134/208 7-7
173 Mashed 0 700.31 95.11 124/225 7-5
174 Memphis Hustle & Flow 0 694.01 88.72 130/212 5-8
175 VU 0 685.69 66.98 139/206 10-11
176 Petey's Scallywags 0 682.53 68.32 139/206 9-7
177 Hairy Otter 0 682.49 86.31 120/223 6-7
178 Fear and Loathing 0 680.48 76.31 142/211 3-8
179 Unlimited Swipes 0 678.58 52.41 151/203 8-10
180 Sweet Action 0 675.6 73.38 139/212 4-7
181 TBD 0 668.84 70.51 145/211 5-7
182 Heavy Flow 0 666.92 46.41 153/207 4-15
183 Pixel 0 663.9 94.44 127/224 3-4
184 Mastodon 0 659.43 53.88 151/206 11-12
185 DR 0 655.55 111.21 131/227 4-3
186 Breakers Mark 0 654.52 73.44 147/220 4-7
187 Jabba 0 649.1 45.92 155/206 6-14
188 Sorted Beans 0 646.36 52.99 151/210 6-13
189 Face Off 0 639.32 55.48 153/210 8-12
190 Alt Stacks 0 638.75 75.43 140/217 5-5
191 Monster 0 637.11 74.7 142/224 9-11
192 Pi+ 0 633.17 79.99 143/223 3-4
193 The Umbrella 0 628.66 78.43 144/229 4-10
194 District Cocktails 0 624.19 36.55 168/205 7-12
195 FIRE ULTIMATE CLUB MIAMI 0 607.65 100.3 131/231 3-4
196 Rainbow 0 591.92 65.6 152/216 7-12
197 Side Hustle 0 591.33 135.5 104/242 2-4
198 Boomtown Pandas 0 573.55 51.57 163/216 10-10
199 Mississippi Blues 0 550.45 70.16 157/226 8-12
200 Enough Monkeys 0 528.18 83.4 160/231 2-4
201 Megalodon 0 527.03 83.95 152/230 5-9
202 rubber duck ultimate. 0 515.55 65.09 169/232 4-12
203 Duloofda 0 511.86 64.83 173/227 4-6
204 Madison United Mixed Ultimate 0 491.85 69.48 171/234 4-11
205 Birds of Paradise 0 485.93 101.53 154/240 4-7
206 Midwestern Mediocrity 0 482.82 50.92 182/230 4-9
207 Derby City Thunder 0 473.84 67.71 178/232 7-13
208 Albany Airbenders 0 456.59 71.04 181/237 7-12
209 Feral Cows 0 453.05 92.73 158/244 4-10
210 Great Minnesota Get Together 0 435.47 38.55 197/228 6-8
211 Big Bend 0 421.29 88.88 160/242 4-10
212 Midnight Whiskey 0 416.68 104.1 171/248 2-5
213 Mola Mola 0 402.75 54.96 190/237 1-5
214 Natural Twenties 0 402.61 97.7 175/244 1-9
215 I-79 0 398.35 93.77 181/245 2-5
216 Dinosaur Fancy 0 376.01 67.52 191/242 2-3
217 Friendzone 0 374.09 99.67 173/247 2-5
218 Bold City 0 370.04 102.4 170/249 6-8
219 Skyhawks 0 369.71 70.27 195/243 3-4
220 Equinox 0 366.7 92.01 179/246 2-9
221 Baywatch 0 363.39 91.12 186/248 4-10
222 Stormborn 0 355.06 56.09 199/241 6-13
223 Buffalo Brain Freeze 0 354.56 73.12 196/245 5-8
224 Robotic Snakes 0 346.39 90.44 179/247 4-15
225 Espionage 0 343.67 79.95 192/245 4-8
226 Orbit 0 343.08 91.64 179/250 2-12
227 Party Cats-D 0 336.32 115.3 168/249 3-9
228 Mixchief 0 323.2 107.38 187/248 2-12
229 RnB 0 318.88 89.01 195/246 2-11
230 Rogue 0 310.52 155.29 150/255 1-4
231 Second Wind 0 299.48 72.31 204/249 2-15
232 Balloon 0 299.09 106.56 180/251 2-12
233 Tropics Ultimate 0 274.95 48.75 211/244 3-9
234 Indiana Pterodactyl Attack 0 274.19 137.25 178/252 1-6
235 Alpha 0 254.44 121.63 184/253 1-8
236 Sebastopol Orchard 0 225.23 166.42 180/255 0-6
237 Rampage 0 214.13 65.32 215/249 2-11
238 Craw Daddies 0 213.99 112.88 195/254 1-9
239 Mixed on the Rock 0 192.78 133.67 197/255 2-9
240 Identity Theft 0 171 63.99 216/251 3-8
241 Baltimore BENCH 0 157.96 84.91 208/254 1-11
242 Sabers 0 154.47 91.62 205/253 1-6
243 SkyLab 0 152.61 102.62 205/255 1-10
244 Dead Reckoning 0 103.87 97.26 218/254 1-4
245 Ope! 0 70.17 158.35 198/255 1-10
246 ThunderCats 0 65.45 121.5 216/255 0-7
247 LudICRous 0 57.32 136.07 210/255 0-7
248 Pink pear 2019 0 36.06 51.79 236/254 0-6
249 Taco Cat 0 23.74 78.44 231/255 3-16
250 Mixfits 0 20.7 108.37 218/255 2-10
251 Pandatime 0 11.4 102.78 218/255 0-7
252 SlipStream 0 -29.23 109.36 229/255 0-7
253 Rising Tide U20X 0 -113.7 162.89 215/255 0-6
254 Fox Valley Forge 0 -135.83 113.27 236/255 0-11
255 MUTT 0 -259.15 191.17 226/255 0-5

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)