Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2018-19 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
1 Great Lakes 0.67 Steamboat 45.10%,   Columbus Cocktails 21.70%,   Hybrid 0.30%,  
3 Mid-Atlantic 2.66 AMP 100.00%,   Space Heater 93.60%,   Loco 54.60%,   Rally 9.10%,   Alloy 8.50%,  
1 North Central 1.45 Drag'n Thrust 100.00%,   The Chad Larson Experience 32.40%,   Chalice 10.00%,   No Touching! 2.60%,  
3 Northeast 3 Slow White 100.00%,   Snake Country 99.70%,   Wild Card 98.90%,   XIST 1.00%,  
3 Northwest 2.96 Seattle Mixtape 100.00%,   BFG 99.90%,   Lochsa 87.20%,   MOONDOG 7.70%,   Lights Out 0.90%,  
2 South Central 1.74 shame. 97.50%,   Love Tractor 69.80%,   Public Enemy 6.60%,  
1 Southeast 1.4 Toro 74.80%,   Weird 48.50%,   Bucket 15.20%,   Storm 0.90%,   'Shine 0.20%,  
2 Southwest 2.13 Mischief 98.70%,   Blackbird 90.70%,   Polar Bears 22.80%,   Lotus 1.10%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region GL MA NC NE NW SC SE SW
Initial 0.671 2.658 1.450 2.996 2.957 1.739 1.396 2.133
Autos (all @ 1) -0.329 1.658 0.450 1.996 1.957 0.739 0.396 1.133
Northeast (@ 2) -0.329 1.658 0.450 0.996 1.957 0.739 0.396 1.133
Northwest (@ 2) -0.329 1.658 0.450 0.996 0.957 0.739 0.396 1.133
Mid-Atlantic (@ 2) -0.329 0.658 0.450 0.996 0.957 0.739 0.396 1.133
Southwest (@ 2) -0.329 0.658 0.450 0.996 0.957 0.739 0.396 0.133
Northeast (@ 3) -0.329 0.658 0.450 -0.004 0.957 0.739 0.396 0.133
Northwest (@ 3) -0.329 0.658 0.450 -0.004 -0.043 0.739 0.396 0.133
South Central (@ 2) -0.329 0.658 0.450 -0.004 -0.043 -0.261 0.396 0.133
Mid-Atlantic (@ 3) -0.329 -0.342 0.450 -0.004 -0.043 -0.261 0.396 0.133
Total 1 3 1 3 3 2 1 2

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 Drag'n Thrust 1 2196.36 51.62 1/4 19-2
2 AMP 1 2107.37 61.64 1/10 20-3
3 Seattle Mixtape 1 2083.72 44.5 1/11 21-3
4 Slow White 1 2015.39 53.59 1/14 20-6
5 BFG 0.999 1967.11 56.3 2/17 14-5
6 Snake Country 0.997 1925.76 44.38 2/18 11-8
7 Wild Card 0.989 2002.74 80.88 1/23 22-3
8 Mischief 0.987 1927.51 59.08 3/22 11-9
9 shame. 0.975 1926.6 66.73 2/26 12-6
10 Space Heater 0.936 1897.63 65.53 2/23 7-9
11 Blackbird 0.907 1879.73 63.71 3/27 13-5
12 Lochsa 0.872 1883.75 75.21 2/29 18-6
13 Toro 0.748 1850.48 74.21 2/32 12-8
14 Love Tractor 0.698 1826.3 57.76 5/29 20-11
15 Loco 0.546 1802.34 51.88 6/30 22-4
16 Weird 0.485 1796.8 77.23 5/38 21-4
17 Steamboat 0.451 1777.25 84.63 2/48 17-3
18 The Chad Larson Experience 0.324 1759.72 81.42 4/44 19-7
19 Polar Bears 0.228 1756.06 59.77 9/39 12-7
20 Columbus Cocktails 0.217 1762.6 48.67 9/35 18-10
21 Bucket 0.152 1723.21 74.88 6/45 14-5
22 Chalice 0.1 1717.13 65.48 9/41 20-4
23 Rally 0.091 1711.34 65.36 9/50 20-10
24 Alloy 0.085 1709.76 58.45 10/44 19-12
25 MOONDOG 0.077 1710.43 60.18 10/45 18-8
26 Public Enemy 0.066 1698.29 67.81 9/49 16-7
27 No Touching! 0.026 1640.73 77.47 10/55 4-7
28 Lotus 0.011 1643.08 65.76 13/53 21-7
29 XIST 0.01 1625.92 63.04 10/54 9-16
30 Storm 0.009 1653.05 59.92 14/50 20-7
31 Lights Out 0.009 1643.61 60.6 15/48 15-9
32 Hybrid 0.003 1600.57 72.7 15/58 20-4
33 'Shine 0.002 1588.45 84.22 14/62 18-3
34 NOISE 0 1611.8 48.74 18/48 12-9
35 League of Shadows 0 1563.4 55.34 22/53 19-10
36 Garage Sale 0 1563.38 49.29 23/54 19-0
37 Jughandle 0 1562.97 61.67 18/61 5-16
38 Superlame 0 1558.52 57.8 20/55 19-2
39 Darkwing 0 1541.07 69.03 20/69 21-6
40 Murmur 0 1540.03 55.26 20/60 15-5
41 BW Ultimate 0 1539.26 81.14 18/76 8-11
42 Woodwork 0 1529.81 51.55 23/66 15-11
43 Birdfruit 0 1517.79 60.12 26/65 14-12
44 Pivot 0 1500.13 70.12 24/66 19-5
45 Waterloo 0 1493.19 83.1 23/79 16-1
46 Sparkle Ponies 0 1490.21 58.16 24/67 15-7
47 Huntsville Outlaws 0 1473.42 76.05 22/79 25-2
48 Classy 0 1466.35 62.19 27/78 17-10
49 Boomtown 0 1463.97 70.87 23/87 18-0
50 Minnesota Star Power 0 1459.03 67.76 21/75 12-11
51 Mesteño 0 1441.75 61.74 28/76 12-14
52 Cutthroat 0 1429.81 73.2 27/76 20-7
53 Malice in Wonderland 0 1409.77 49.72 38/80 14-7
54 Grand Army 0 1401.86 68.71 28/91 10-9
55 8 Bit Heroes 0 1391.87 57.99 36/89 11-16
56 Toast 0 1385.08 51.22 39/104 18-7
57 Donuts 0 1383.86 51.97 35/79 25-10
58 Rubix 0 1364.9 57.14 42/85 13-12
59 Chaotic Good 0 1351.87 48.94 44/91 16-10
60 JLP 0 1351.01 47.72 42/90 12-15
61 The Administrators 0 1344.95 55.75 44/94 16-7
62 7 Sins 0 1333.62 50.2 42/88 19-6
63 Flight Club 0 1333.31 70.97 39/108 15-11
64 American Barbecue 0 1329.41 48.97 46/102 15-13
65 Metro North 0 1315.24 60.43 40/102 12-15
66 Instant Karma 0 1306.3 64.36 44/105 14-11
67 Memphis STAX 0 1301.52 72.65 38/118 17-8
68 Northern Comfort 0 1282.76 57.5 47/104 18-12
69 Ant Madness 0 1276.3 51.57 48/107 19-11
70 Petey's Pirates 0 1274.68 41.7 52/105 25-5
71 Trash Pandas 0 1273.88 43.99 53/105 25-10
72 Bexar 0 1273.51 71.59 42/115 17-7
73 Firefly 0 1270.63 55.81 48/106 15-13
74 Happy Hour 0 1269.36 52.88 50/107 11-5
75 Alchemy 0 1253.48 49.08 53/106 16-11
76 The Feminists 0 1252.72 69.11 47/119 13-9
77 Pegasus 0 1245.6 67.35 51/118 10-13
78 Ouzel 0 1234.78 60.91 51/117 13-6
79 HVAC 0 1231.84 59.37 50/123 19-8
80 Eat Lightning 0 1221.84 63.02 52/125 17-9
81 Garbage 0 1205.37 54.59 58/126 12-10
82 The Bandits 0 1202.88 46.66 61/116 17-10
83 FlyTrap 0 1200.71 51.94 57/125 18-10
84 Fleet 0 1197.14 61.68 55/127 13-8
85 Garbage Plates 0 1196.12 47.06 64/128 17-1
86 Mojo Jojo 0 1193.15 71.76 54/130 16-7
87 PanIC 0 1184.69 66.09 55/133 14-13
88 Soft Boiled 0 1181.95 56.9 61/126 18-8
89 Platypi 0 1178.4 64.77 58/132 12-9
90 Birds 0 1178.39 73.81 54/141 20-6
91 Sunken Circus 0 1177.86 57.02 63/124 19-7
92 Buckwild 0 1174.33 56.01 63/126 12-9
93 Mutiny 0 1170.48 59.59 58/133 19-7
94 Risky Business 0 1169 64.97 63/133 13-10
95 Robot 0 1167.93 63.47 55/130 12-10
96 Family Style 0 1167.56 73.65 54/132 9-11
97 Tyrannis 0 1160.03 52.85 61/131 20-8
98 Moontower 0 1159.12 53.29 55/126 21-7
99 Auburn HeyDay 0 1158.12 58.94 58/131 19-10
100 California Burrito 0 1148.22 65.6 57/133 12-9
101 blOKC party 0 1146.65 44.17 70/125 16-9
102 Argo 0 1141.92 62.04 62/138 15-12
103 Shakedown 0 1141.92 46.31 66/131 19-14
104 NC Galaxy 0 1124.84 51.13 68/133 12-12
105 Stoke 0 1113.57 61.9 68/142 14-12
106 sKNO cone 0 1111.67 69.33 59/152 10-11
107 Rat City 0 1105.67 51.7 79/134 23-13
108 Absolute Zero 0 1104.82 53.2 69/132 12-17
109 PS 0 1099.32 52.44 73/137 14-12
110 Seoulmates 0 1089.54 48.62 78/136 19-9
111 Funk 0 1086.78 59.61 72/141 17-13
112 Bulleit Train 0 1085.56 55.84 71/142 11-10
113 Pandamonium 0 1081.72 52.91 68/141 22-9
114 Impact 0 1077.49 65.27 67/147 9-13
115 Happy Valley 0 1067.36 71.72 63/155 11-5
116 Nothing's Great Again 0 1052.35 82.38 60/175 6-11
117 Farm Show 0 1047.51 62.39 75/148 7-13
118 Hive 0 1047.23 52.26 72/146 9-7
119 Springs Mixed Ulty Team 0 1040.35 48.01 95/145 11-8
120 Bird 0 1035.56 52.26 87/146 12-14
121 m'kay Ultimate 0 1032.15 53.37 90/147 11-9
122 Legion 0 1029.65 35.51 90/139 15-12
123 Liquid Hustle 0 1023.82 50.82 87/147 15-11
124 Night Shift 0 1020.06 57.47 89/163 16-11
125 Mixed Signals 0 1013.23 64.98 86/155 7-13
126 Los Heros 0 1011.08 65.04 76/152 16-8
127 Choco Ghost House 0 994.75 55.41 94/157 10-7
128 Tequila Mockingbird 0 985.39 46.3 95/152 13-14
129 Crucible 0 983.45 51.98 93/165 16-10
130 Mad Udderburn 0 968.38 60.03 97/158 16-8
131 Philly Twist 0 952.29 56.06 106/164 12-13
132 Superstition 0 950.28 52.67 98/160 12-14
133 Point of No Return 0 932.72 55.2 107/162 12-11
134 Scarecrow 0 928.71 59.17 104/170 13-14
135 Tex Mix 0 926.68 47.9 113/165 11-12
136 Igneous Ultimate 0 925.05 47.04 111/162 7-11
137 Buffalo Lake Effect 0 923.09 61.11 101/165 13-15
138 Jackpot 0 920.99 53.78 108/171 16-13
139 Melt 0 913.8 45.84 116/166 16-11
140 Goose Lee 0 913.21 67.73 107/177 9-12
141 ELevate 0 912.98 68.29 102/177 13-10
142 Hellbenders 0 910.56 47.56 113/169 8-16
143 Sweet Action 0 903.34 57.71 110/169 11-15
144 Rowdy 0 900.64 50.17 113/170 8-19
145 EMU 0 894.92 58.25 113/169 18-9
146 Breakers Mark 0 892.72 66.5 103/179 8-9
147 OutKast 0 872.91 56.1 112/176 14-13
148 VU 0 870.8 53.51 115/172 16-17
149 BATL Cows 0 856.2 58.9 116/177 11-15
150 APEX 0 845.11 57.39 126/179 11-19
151 Possum 0 836.1 51.72 123/176 14-13
152 Wildstyle 0 811.29 57.4 128/183 11-12
153 Thunderpants the Magic Dragon 0 807.18 54.67 132/187 10-12
154 Mousetrap 0 799.55 61.23 126/190 18-12
155 Prion 0 799.14 67.96 125/189 13-15
156 Alt Stacks 0 792.17 57.29 125/186 8-9
157 Magic City Mayhem 0 786.17 57.66 127/189 11-17
158 Moonshine 0 781.83 38.83 138/181 15-14
159 Spoiler Alert 0 781.43 61.52 134/190 10-11
160 Unlimited Swipes 0 780.86 45.05 137/188 14-16
161 Mashed 0 779.24 69.54 127/192 11-9
162 Long Beach Legacy 0 773.82 73.38 125/197 6-12
163 Varsity 0 772.77 61.05 125/190 9-11
164 Piedmont United 0 770.41 69.89 122/191 8-13
165 Rocket LawnChair 0 769.7 58.26 132/190 17-10
166 DR 0 755.92 68.61 128/195 8-9
167 Pixel 0 740.96 56.32 135/191 9-11
168 The Strangers 0 720.83 81.07 127/199 5-13
169 LORD 0 713.9 56.32 142/195 11-13
170 Jabba 0 708.36 43.13 153/196 9-20
171 Hairy Otter 0 705.18 73.94 135/199 8-10
172 Nautilus 0 703.4 68.74 139/204 12-14
173 Heavy Flow 0 701.66 44.71 152/194 7-20
174 Petey's Scallywags 0 700.71 57.38 141/195 12-17
175 Birds of Paradise 0 698.26 80.63 133/204 7-11
176 HAOS 0 696.95 56 147/201 11-13
177 Chili Poppers 0 692.01 66.04 146/200 8-15
178 Rainbow 0 681.04 61.71 146/208 9-16
179 TBD 0 661.71 46.74 148/195 9-16
180 Pushovers-B 0 659.42 54.11 149/199 10-15
181 Face Off 0 657.87 54.48 148/198 11-15
182 Mud Turtles 0 650.27 85.76 138/212 9-12
183 Sorted Beans 0 649.6 59.55 152/202 8-17
184 Mastodon 0 645.52 44 151/200 14-15
185 Stackcats 0 637.26 57.72 153/204 11-16
186 Megalodon 0 629.01 68.96 152/210 6-14
187 Espionage 0 618.95 60.38 152/210 9-16
188 Great Minnesota Get Together 0 612.32 59.19 150/208 9-11
189 Memphis Hustle & Flow 0 611.21 69.45 156/212 6-14
190 District Cocktails 0 587.92 51.27 165/208 9-16
191 Monster 0 582.9 68.59 161/213 10-16
192 Boomtown Pandas 0 571.61 45.69 169/207 12-14
193 Midwestern Mediocrity 0 525.94 47.72 176/211 7-13
194 The Umbrella 0 513.47 71.91 169/222 5-15
195 Buffalo Brain Freeze 0 511.11 70.01 167/221 7-12
196 Natural Twenties 0 491.54 69.12 174/224 3-13
197 Feral Cows 0 490.13 65.45 177/223 6-18
198 Mississippi Blues 0 485.91 56.73 180/219 9-18
199 Stormborn 0 481.64 52.8 179/220 8-17
200 Fear and Loathing 0 478.37 70.65 172/221 3-21
201 Duloofda 0 471.43 48.49 182/220 5-13
202 RnB 0 465.07 79.02 174/227 3-15
203 rubber duck ultimate. 0 462.64 49.03 186/219 5-14
204 Madison United Mixed Ultimate 0 461.78 56.42 182/221 6-15
205 Rogue 0 453.95 83.8 159/226 3-15
206 Pandatime 0 447.97 71.5 177/229 4-16
207 Second Wind 0 422.82 71.3 182/226 5-19
208 Mishigami 0 416.19 85.65 180/226 4-15
209 Big Bend 0 412.1 72.19 186/227 6-14
210 Robotic Snakes 0 404.08 63.22 186/226 4-19
211 Mixchief 0 400.84 88.36 171/228 5-15
212 Balloon 0 377.86 61.8 187/226 5-16
213 Derby City Thunder 0 377.02 65.97 193/227 7-18
214 Equinox 0 365.21 112.4 171/230 2-9
215 Party Cats-D 0 361.46 76.87 187/228 4-18
216 SlipStream 0 335.55 69.55 180/229 4-16
217 Albany Airbenders 0 331.85 57.06 200/228 8-24
218 I-79 0 315.46 65 196/228 5-15
219 Orbit 0 298.04 83.7 190/230 2-17
220 Tropics Ultimate 0 293.3 67.94 199/229 3-9
221 Baltimore BENCH 0 292.64 65.23 200/229 4-21
222 Bold City 0 287.31 85.22 193/229 7-12
223 SkyLab 0 275.16 71 201/230 1-16
224 Rampage 0 253.59 65.82 203/229 2-18
225 Baywatch 0 215.25 97.55 198/230 4-15
226 Identity Theft 0 209.93 55.23 213/229 4-13
227 Craw Daddies 0 157.01 110.38 201/231 1-9
228 Mixed on the Rock 0 136.35 121.64 197/232 2-11
229 Ope! 0 71.19 161.6 191/232 1-10
230 Taco Cat 0 -32.91 71.57 225/232 2-16
231 Mixfits 0 -82.66 93.42 226/232 2-14
232 Fox Valley Forge 0 -291.03 119.82 228/232 0-17

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)