Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2018-19 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
1 Great Lakes 0
2 Mid-Atlantic 2.39 AMP 100.00%,   Loco 77.30%,   Space Heater 58.70%,   Rally 3.20%,  
2 North Central 2.46 Drag'n Thrust 100.00%,   No Touching! 64.50%,   NOISE 51.20%,   The Chad Larson Experience 28.30%,   Woodwork 1.90%,  
3 Northeast 2.69 Wild Card 99.40%,   Snake Country 94.00%,   Slow White 74.70%,   XIST 0.50%,   UNION 0.10%,  
3 Northwest 3.11 Seattle Mixtape 100.00%,   BFG 100.00%,   Birdfruit 58.60%,   Lochsa 48.80%,   Lights Out 4.10%,  
2 South Central 2.14 Love Tractor 95.50%,   Public Enemy 62.40%,   shame. 56.50%,  
1 Southeast 0.68 Toro 46.70%,   Bucket 21.10%,   Mixfits 0.10%,  
2 Southwest 2.52 Polar Bears 86.00%,   Blackbird 82.00%,   Mischief 72.00%,   7 Figures 12.40%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region GL MA NC NE NW SC SE SW
Initial 0.000 2.392 2.459 2.687 3.115 2.144 0.679 2.524
Autos (all @ 1) -1.000 1.392 1.459 1.687 2.115 1.144 -0.321 1.524
Northwest (@ 2) -1.000 1.392 1.459 1.687 1.115 1.144 -0.321 1.524
Northeast (@ 2) -1.000 1.392 1.459 0.687 1.115 1.144 -0.321 1.524
Southwest (@ 2) -1.000 1.392 1.459 0.687 1.115 1.144 -0.321 0.524
North Central (@ 2) -1.000 1.392 0.459 0.687 1.115 1.144 -0.321 0.524
Mid-Atlantic (@ 2) -1.000 0.392 0.459 0.687 1.115 1.144 -0.321 0.524
South Central (@ 2) -1.000 0.392 0.459 0.687 1.115 0.144 -0.321 0.524
Northwest (@ 3) -1.000 0.392 0.459 0.687 0.115 0.144 -0.321 0.524
Northeast (@ 3) -1.000 0.392 0.459 -0.313 0.115 0.144 -0.321 0.524
Total 1 2 2 3 3 2 1 2

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 AMP 1 2177.45 59.67 1/8 19-4
2 Drag'n Thrust 1 2171.73 48.91 1/6 19-3
3 Seattle Mixtape 1 2149.65 71.06 1/11 9-5
4 BFG 1 2114.75 74.74 1/14 9-4
5 Wild Card 0.994 2026.97 67.78 1/19 13-6
6 Love Tractor 0.955 1967.85 64.73 2/25 19-6
7 Snake Country 0.94 1947.13 63.81 2/24 17-4
8 Polar Bears 0.86 1929.78 75.4 2/31 14-4
9 Blackbird 0.82 1905.9 69.56 2/28 12-6
10 Loco 0.773 1915.31 93.05 2/31 21-1
11 Slow White 0.747 1891.7 65.67 4/29 11-9
12 Mischief 0.72 1885.38 70.37 2/33 13-4
13 No Touching! 0.645 1874.7 65.84 5/29 8-9
14 Public Enemy 0.624 1868.31 69.86 4/32 7-6
15 Space Heater 0.587 1874.44 93.48 2/32 7-3
16 Birdfruit 0.586 1861.78 74.06 4/30 11-8
17 shame. 0.565 1863.61 81.1 4/36 10-7
18 NOISE 0.512 1850.86 68.24 5/32 11-11
19 Lochsa 0.488 1846.82 63.94 5/30 13-5
20 Toro 0.467 1843.33 64.95 5/31 14-6
21 The Chad Larson Experience 0.283 1795.66 88.13 3/38 17-5
22 Bucket 0.211 1768.14 101.92 4/43 14-4
23 7 Figures 0.124 1777.34 64.81 5/35 12-8
24 Lights Out 0.041 1737.46 63.61 7/36 16-5
25 Rally 0.032 1752.16 51.92 10/34 15-11
26 Woodwork 0.019 1665.38 88.23 10/53 19-4
27 XIST 0.005 1701.28 50.7 14/37 12-14
28 UNION 0.001 1661.74 55.37 16/41 19-10
29 Mixfits 0.001 1503.24 99.79 11/76 9-4
30 Metro North 0 1647.08 53.45 19/44 6-12
31 Jughandle 0 1645.4 62.65 17/44 15-10
32 Steamboat 0 1614.51 59.24 20/49 4-14
33 League of Shadows 0 1612.22 68.8 18/49 12-7
34 Storm 0 1582.91 63.44 20/56 14-13
35 Weird 0 1576.23 56.75 23/50 16-4
36 Bozos 0 1552.19 65.47 22/59 12-7
37 Classy 0 1550.74 51.65 26/53 17-11
38 BW Ultimate 0 1538.85 55.94 25/54 12-7
39 Alloy 0 1528.87 80.55 22/72 5-10
40 Minnesota Star Power 0 1526.49 78.15 21/65 9-8
41 Mesteño 0 1509.97 69.78 21/61 7-11
42 Northern Comfort 0 1476.91 54.24 29/61 17-7
43 Heartless 0 1475.68 69.46 25/71 22-2
44 Cosa Nostra 0 1448.66 57.58 30/76 11-7
45 Rubix 0 1436.34 69.59 31/74 16-3
46 Columbus Cocktails 0 1416.83 46.13 36/68 16-8
47 Darkwing 0 1402.18 70.42 31/86 15-4
48 Murmur 0 1401.33 57.46 33/77 14-7
49 Thoroughbred 0 1383.95 68.41 32/84 10-8
50 FlyTrap 0 1383.25 73.7 34/86 11-4
51 Flight Club 0 1361.5 123.04 26/119 9-3
52 Happy Valley 0 1360.45 127.26 24/140 9-1
53 Tyrannis 0 1353.53 75.83 34/101 11-4
54 ROBOS 0 1352.26 85.04 32/110 10-2
55 Rowdy 0 1333.46 68.06 35/99 15-6
56 Long Beach Legacy 0 1327.82 80.99 33/102 10-4
57 'Shine 0 1322.57 81.21 33/103 14-6
58 NC Galaxy 0 1319.64 50.01 41/93 9-5
59 Alchemy 0 1318.23 57.33 40/95 10-10
60 Method 0 1311.74 65.29 36/101 15-7
61 Toast 0 1309.22 74.15 34/102 10-4
62 Mutiny 0 1305.61 66.02 36/94 18-7
63 8 Bit Heroes 0 1300.18 53.77 41/100 13-9
64 Malice in Wonderland 0 1299.55 66.76 39/109 10-6
65 The Administrators 0 1293.4 61.15 40/102 13-5
66 JLP 0 1287.58 66.26 38/98 13-9
67 Chaotic Good 0 1281.73 65.51 43/106 13-7
68 Distelfink 0 1279.05 63.09 39/112 11-7
69 Tex Mix 0 1277.53 93.65 35/118 15-3
70 Cutthroat 0 1277.11 66.19 40/110 9-9
71 Family Style 0 1274.58 63.85 40/105 8-7
72 The Feminists 0 1270.18 40.25 52/93 6-15
73 Instant Karma 0 1250.93 63.32 45/113 13-6
74 Firefly 0 1249.34 55.14 45/110 12-9
75 Tequila Mockingbird 0 1243.91 62.25 46/104 10-10
76 Cahoots 0 1234.92 88.39 39/123 8-7
77 Chalice 0 1231.04 56.25 46/104 10-11
78 Grand Army 0 1228.15 62.19 48/114 12-5
79 American Barbecue 0 1212.14 72.79 48/121 8-12
80 Sparkle Ponies 0 1199.97 60.73 50/116 12-8
81 Titan NE 0 1190.46 53.69 53/116 14-6
82 Sellout 0 1184.9 56.65 50/120 11-3
83 Happy Hour 0 1184.19 81.1 48/128 8-4
84 Bird 0 1180.92 58.3 54/119 14-8
85 Birds 0 1173.31 65.29 49/126 16-5
86 Pegasus 0 1166.38 60.39 57/121 5-14
87 Mental Toss Flycoons 0 1162.38 82.34 46/132 6-7
88 tHUMP 0 1161.47 62.77 56/118 14-6
89 Sweet Action 0 1155.43 61.07 52/118 3-15
90 Alt Stacks 0 1154.97 94.77 46/144 11-3
91 Trash Pandas 0 1151.83 58.88 55/122 14-12
92 Huntsville Outlaws 0 1149.72 78.17 47/134 17-5
93 Ant Madness 0 1139.26 73.97 50/133 10-11
94 Hybrid 0 1134.8 49.73 63/120 13-6
95 Sunken Circus 0 1133.18 75.25 55/138 12-7
96 Donuts 0 1131.73 87.4 51/135 10-9
97 Igneous Ultimate 0 1130.81 29.8 70/111 5-6
98 Jackpot 0 1108.57 74.16 55/133 9-5
99 Albany Airbenders 0 1104.63 81.99 50/143 13-7
100 Boomtown 0 1103.72 64.65 60/131 15-4
101 The Bandits 0 1093.63 59.12 64/128 12-12
102 Platypi 0 1090.64 61.27 66/137 12-14
103 Superstition 0 1088.06 59.2 69/131 7-11
104 Mojo Jojo 0 1046.07 60.99 76/138 13-11
105 panIC 0 1034.59 65.79 71/140 13-7
106 Moonshine 0 1030.92 56.21 82/140 17-7
107 STAX 0 1030.21 79.85 60/152 9-5
108 American Hyperbole 0 1026.07 53.01 81/143 8-12
109 Buffalo Lake Effect 0 1025.73 64.68 80/144 8-8
110 Shakedown 0 1022.38 60.45 79/137 10-14
111 Impact 0 1021.29 73.38 70/147 14-7
112 Nautilus 0 1019.62 79.62 68/148 9-6
113 Mimosas 0 1013.79 66.69 73/141 6-7
114 Argo 0 1012.22 83.64 73/152 6-8
115 Moontower 0 1007.09 60.54 81/146 12-6
116 Petey's Pirates 0 1005.31 71.07 76/145 12-9
117 Townies 0 999.85 55.21 81/143 12-12
118 California Burrito 0 996.2 62.67 73/146 11-9
119 Risky Business 0 995.97 54.13 90/142 10-9
120 The Process 0 990.23 85.82 78/159 7-7
121 Garbage Plates 0 989.59 97.86 59/164 6-5
122 Rocket LawnChair 0 989.15 62.03 86/148 11-8
123 ELevate 0 982.98 68.36 77/154 15-9
124 WHUF 0 963.94 63.99 80/157 9-9
125 LoveShack 0 961.42 46.83 100/154 10-17
126 Buckwild 0 951.31 76.5 66/162 11-9
127 Blitzkrieg 0 947.86 73.62 78/159 13-6
128 Goose Lee 0 941.86 63.78 87/153 6-9
129 Rat City 0 938.29 67.19 89/156 6-6
130 Scarecrow 0 930.6 50.32 98/146 10-10
131 Legion 0 928.5 105.81 71/180 7-7
132 Funk 0 920.99 71.12 93/165 10-10
133 Liquid Hustle 0 918.94 59.48 94/153 9-12
134 Crucible 0 890 68.03 98/162 10-13
135 Pandamonium 0 884.17 73.6 101/166 14-8
136 Stoke 0 858.12 63.92 103/176 8-10
137 The Strangers 0 846.69 45.18 110/160 8-6
138 Absolute Zero 0 823.77 61.39 119/170 10-7
139 Mississippi Blues 0 821.68 67.36 104/173 5-8
140 Los Heros 0 820.16 67.42 108/174 9-9
141 Bulleit Train 0 816.84 68.99 108/181 4-9
142 Wildstyle 0 815.14 55.65 117/171 7-10
143 Powermove 0 810.98 62.63 115/172 12-9
144 Peep Show 0 804.99 87.63 106/180 4-7
145 Prion 0 801.94 80.4 90/178 8-9
146 Enough Monkeys 0 791.03 97.1 84/189 6-7
147 Heavy Flow 0 789.96 70.3 108/179 10-10
148 APEX 0 784.12 99.86 100/191 6-8
149 Spirit Fowl 0 778.85 58.99 110/176 11-13
150 OutKast 0 770.46 98.79 99/190 7-6
151 North Coast 0 760.61 90.41 105/186 5-6
152 HVAC 0 736.51 69.41 127/188 5-8
153 Philly Twist 0 734.32 47.42 135/181 9-16
154 Mad Udderburn 0 731.55 70.65 129/184 11-13
155 Thunderpants the Magic Dragon 0 730.6 86.9 116/187 5-9
156 Fear and Loathing 0 727.28 59.25 130/185 3-9
157 RIMIX 0 726.65 64.55 128/185 9-12
158 RnB 0 707.54 69.47 131/184 4-12
159 Fifth Element 0 705.89 69.44 123/187 5-11
160 Unlimited Swipes 0 705.05 65.22 131/187 10-10
161 Spoiler Alert 0 700.97 77.37 124/188 5-15
162 Hellbenders 0 699.32 62.31 136/185 4-8
163 AC Bandits 0 693.66 65.84 132/190 6-13
164 DTX 0 688.48 79.29 130/189 9-11
165 HAOS 0 676.35 78.09 124/192 3-15
166 LORD 0 668.2 51.51 133/186 5-8
167 Balloon 0 663.92 61.74 136/189 7-12
168 Rainbow 0 660.88 67.04 137/191 8-12
169 Mousetrap 0 659.96 57.83 137/189 11-14
170 Boomtown Pandas 0 649.5 68.2 130/192 11-13
171 Bonfire 0 637.78 56.49 143/191 7-11
172 Freetail 0 632.87 54.25 144/190 7-5
173 Oh My! 0 627.04 79.49 136/194 1-9
174 Coalition Ultimate 0 624.36 72.83 139/195 11-10
175 Jabba 0 612.03 48.95 150/188 7-16
176 Sebastopol Orchard 0 595.66 98.05 134/199 4-8
177 DR 0 577.59 65.26 142/196 6-11
178 Fake Newport News 0 574.83 74.95 141/197 6-6
179 Face Off 0 571.68 73.96 141/196 6-12
180 Varsity 0 567.32 56.28 150/196 3-11
181 Second Wind 0 547.29 64.39 146/195 8-8
182 Stackcats 0 531.92 61.27 155/199 7-13
183 Free Ride 0 527.65 63.59 155/196 5-12
184 District Cocktails 0 508.61 79.74 150/202 4-8
185 Megalodon 0 498.4 65.65 158/201 4-7
186 Spring Creek Ascension 0 495.36 70.35 160/201 3-8
187 Big Bend 0 493.97 69.1 161/201 4-8
188 Feral Cows 0 489.14 73.24 157/202 5-5
189 Mud Turtles 0 476.27 63.52 166/201 5-14
190 Mastodon 0 458.72 60.01 166/200 8-15
191 Mixed Results 0 435.9 76.29 156/203 4-15
192 Carolina Reign 0 434.43 83.54 162/205 1-15
193 I-79 0 388.95 59.27 175/205 4-9
194 Mixfits 0 384.54 56.45 178/205 2-9
195 Mixed Duluth 0 361.85 70.37 178/207 2-12
196 Chili Poppers 0 360.82 68.36 177/206 3-15
197 VU 0 352.14 91.29 163/207 2-10
198 Baywatch 0 341.91 78.86 171/207 2-12
199 BLT Stacks 0 254.27 80.69 184/209 5-9
200 Stormborn 0 249.15 89 181/210 2-16
201 Petey's Scallywags 0 248.22 87.5 185/209 5-10
202 Bees 0 242.05 84.22 182/210 2-11
203 Skyhawks 0 205.43 79.19 188/210 4-10
204 EDM 0 199.32 109.69 187/212 2-11
205 Turnstyle 0 162.73 83.92 192/211 4-15
206 rubber duck ultimate. 0 146.94 64.36 193/210 4-8
207 Baltimore BENCH 0 133.86 68.72 197/211 2-10
208 Strictly Bidness 0 27.62 73.57 200/213 3-12
209 Mixchief 0 25.19 148.85 187/213 0-11
210 Memphis Hustle & Flow 0 -126.11 131.74 199/213 1-10
211 Taco Cat 0 -187.02 108.57 205/213 1-12
212 LudICRous 0 -209.55 139.74 201/213 1-12
213 Mixed on the Rock 0 -283.3 129.77 207/213 0-12

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)