Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2017-18 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
1 Great Lakes 1.05 Steamboat 99.20%,   UPA 5.10%,   Columbus Cocktails 0.50%,  
2 Mid-Atlantic 1.78 AMP 100.00%,   Alloy 59.10%,   Ambiguous Grey 15.60%,   Bang! 2.30%,   Distelfink 0.70%,   Sparkle Ponies 0.10%,  
3 North Central 2.82 Drag'n Thrust 100.00%,   NOISE 95.70%,   The Chad Larson Experience 82.00%,   No Touching! 4.30%,   Minnesota Star Power 0.10%,  
3 Northeast 3.22 Wild Card 100.00%,   Slow White 100.00%,   Metro North 82.30%,   XIST 39.50%,   UNION 0.10%,  
2 Northwest 2.01 Seattle Mixtape 100.00%,   BFG 100.00%,   Birdfruit 0.60%,  
2 South Central 2.39 shame. 98.40%,   Public Enemy 70.50%,   Love Tractor 70.10%,  
1 Southeast 0.36 Toro 26.90%,   Bucket 8.50%,   Charlotte Storm 0.30%,   G-Unit 0.10%,  
2 Southwest 2.38 Mischief 99.70%,   Blackbird 98.30%,   Polar Bears 35.60%,   7 Figures 4.40%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region GL MA NC NE NW SC SE SW
Initial 1.048 1.778 2.821 3.219 2.006 2.390 0.358 2.380
Autos (all @ 1) 0.048 0.778 1.821 2.219 1.006 1.390 -0.642 1.380
Northeast (@ 2) 0.048 0.778 1.821 1.219 1.006 1.390 -0.642 1.380
North Central (@ 2) 0.048 0.778 0.821 1.219 1.006 1.390 -0.642 1.380
South Central (@ 2) 0.048 0.778 0.821 1.219 1.006 0.390 -0.642 1.380
Southwest (@ 2) 0.048 0.778 0.821 1.219 1.006 0.390 -0.642 0.380
Northeast (@ 3) 0.048 0.778 0.821 0.219 1.006 0.390 -0.642 0.380
Northwest (@ 2) 0.048 0.778 0.821 0.219 0.006 0.390 -0.642 0.380
North Central (@ 3) 0.048 0.778 -0.179 0.219 0.006 0.390 -0.642 0.380
Mid-Atlantic (@ 2) 0.048 -0.222 -0.179 0.219 0.006 0.390 -0.642 0.380
Total 1 2 3 3 2 2 1 2

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 Seattle Mixtape 1 2214.58 55.9 1/4 16-3
2 AMP 1 2175.02 67.82 1/6 11-3
3 Drag'n Thrust 1 2035.49 77.54 1/13 12-7
4 Slow White 1 2035.03 64.34 1/13 21-6
5 BFG 1 2021.05 71.32 1/15 13-6
6 Wild Card 1 2018.41 55.03 1/10 25-2
7 Mischief 0.997 1874.69 48.02 4/17 12-8
8 Steamboat 0.992 1880.6 63.27 3/19 10-10
9 shame. 0.984 1880.66 69.8 3/21 15-5
10 Blackbird 0.983 1889.28 73.82 2/21 11-8
11 NOISE 0.957 1864.33 77.63 3/26 11-8
12 Metro North 0.823 1777 57.76 6/30 13-7
13 The Chad Larson Experience 0.82 1786.74 74.78 5/25 8-10
14 Public Enemy 0.705 1767.13 78.03 3/31 7-8
15 Love Tractor 0.701 1759.02 65.11 7/26 12-6
16 Alloy 0.591 1741.97 84.57 5/35 6-7
17 XIST 0.395 1707.84 50.79 9/28 18-2
18 Polar Bears 0.356 1690.27 89.95 6/40 9-4
19 Toro 0.269 1688.63 67.36 8/33 18-3
20 Ambiguous Grey 0.156 1615.95 119.75 5/50 5-7
21 Bucket 0.085 1615.45 78.71 10/44 11-2
22 UPA 0.051 1604.95 69.37 11/45 6-6
23 7 Figures 0.044 1638.14 51.6 13/35 13-3
24 No Touching! 0.043 1600.53 72.4 11/44 4-8
25 Bang! 0.023 1580.55 65.78 14/43 6-8
26 Distelfink 0.007 1509.06 90.53 13/57 11-3
27 Birdfruit 0.006 1576.53 59.04 13/43 12-3
28 Columbus Cocktails 0.005 1513.23 81.9 15/56 19-3
29 Charlotte Storm 0.003 1553.61 55.21 13/43 15-5
30 UNION 0.001 1494.55 67.62 16/51 5-8
31 G-Unit 0.001 1460.71 90.09 16/58 3-9
32 Minnesota Star Power 0.001 1450.98 82.46 16/65 16-4
33 Sparkle Ponies 0.001 1364.05 99.42 16/83 7-6
34 Bozos 0 1534.93 57.48 17/46 12-8
35 BoyShe 0 1499.05 47.86 19/47 19-9
36 Cosa Nostra 0 1482.65 61.49 18/49 7-9
37 Titan NE 0 1482.55 50.2 19/49 20-2
38 Jughandle 0 1477.3 79.18 17/60 9-5
39 Dub Club 0 1446.7 80.73 18/68 10-5
40 JLP 0 1421.4 73.78 21/62 15-5
41 Donuts 0 1417.51 54.43 23/55 10-4
42 Happy Valley 0 1404.35 74.5 18/72 11-2
43 BW Ultimate 0 1403.56 66.79 21/60 10-10
44 Cahoots 0 1397.39 52.1 24/55 17-3
45 Swing State 0 1381.69 59.21 24/61 14-9
46 The Administrators 0 1347.72 86.8 22/100 10-1
47 Heartless 0 1345.98 63.59 28/70 18-3
48 Malice in Wonderland 0 1310.95 69.92 27/79 10-4
49 The Feminists 0 1302.95 64.46 29/74 13-9
50 Tequila Mockingbird 0 1285.77 71.85 33/78 15-6
51 Classy 0 1262.38 74.96 36/83 7-6
52 Clue 0 1251.57 68.52 37/86 8-5
53 Bird 0 1238.07 75.17 34/86 12-8
54 Pegasus 0 1227.99 81.72 29/106 7-7
55 Ant Madness 0 1211.61 56.67 42/86 15-7
56 PleasureTown 0 1204.24 77.5 36/112 7-13
57 Method 0 1200.48 60.15 43/90 16-4
58 Long Beach Legacy 0 1191.63 67.76 44/92 8-2
59 Darkwing 0 1191.61 65.39 41/97 15-9
60 Garbage Plates 0 1184.81 72.83 37/97 14-4
61 Alchemy 0 1166.93 58.23 43/93 14-5
62 Rubix 0 1164.36 74.85 40/106 9-4
63 Platypi 0 1155.85 84.85 38/115 8-5
64 Mesteño 0 1153.61 62.77 45/99 4-9
65 Risky Business 0 1146.01 55.31 49/93 12-5
66 Townies 0 1143.46 82.87 43/109 14-4
67 Grand Army 0 1136.14 51.33 47/96 9-13
68 Shakedown 0 1128.68 72.54 43/118 9-5
69 Family Style 0 1123.9 77.26 44/117 5-6
70 Cutthroat 0 1122.34 56.99 48/100 12-6
71 American Hyperbole 0 1118.69 48.58 50/98 10-10
72 Thoroughbred 0 1114.98 63.1 50/104 9-5
73 Hybrid 0 1114.12 72.75 41/109 15-3
74 Murmur 0 1107.77 69.6 45/109 21-7
75 Goose Lee 0 1101.94 60.03 49/104 10-4
76 Crash 0 1091.26 63.96 49/111 2-11
77 tHUMP 0 1087.7 74.87 49/128 12-4
78 Mutiny 0 1071.56 58.51 48/107 12-5
79 Northern Comfort 0 1059.54 60.37 51/115 14-8
80 Argo 0 1045.67 68.33 51/123 4-9
81 Toast 0 1042.6 87.63 46/121 10-5
82 Mojo Jojo 0 1030.32 41.69 64/111 15-6
83 Prion 0 1021.21 57.47 54/119 7-7
84 Friday Night Couch 0 1011.81 65.43 57/119 8-5
85 Legion 0 1011.5 63.99 54/119 10-9
86 LoveShack 0 1010.1 53.2 63/118 13-8
87 panIC 0 1007.32 70.33 50/126 7-6
88 8 Bit Heroes 0 1005.69 59.03 61/120 13-7
89 League of Shadows 0 1004.64 60.36 57/122 16-11
90 Alternative Stacks 0 1002.52 82.39 47/143 12-9
91 Instant Karma 0 995.74 75.26 53/128 7-6
92 Sir Walter Rowdy 0 993.23 90.71 53/134 9-4
93 Firefly 0 991.15 59.32 59/121 8-10
94 Powermove 0 987.93 73.91 59/132 10-9
95 rubber duck ultimate. 0 975.27 89.59 54/145 10-4
96 Trash Pandas 0 969.04 48.93 69/127 11-11
97 Sabotage 0 967.72 94.88 51/140 6-7
98 AC Bandits 0 967.26 71.51 58/137 12-5
99 Sweet Action 0 956.04 44.79 74/124 7-12
100 HAOS 0 951.95 65.85 60/128 13-13
101 Tyrannis 0 944.04 70.68 64/139 5-9
102 Rat City 0 933.4 70.83 65/135 3-10
103 Moontower 0 932.27 63.86 67/130 8-9
104 Mental Toss Flycoons 0 929.2 70.24 61/133 5-5
105 Unlimited Swipes 0 911.3 59.44 67/130 12-8
106 Tex Mix 0 902.93 77.39 67/145 9-5
107 The Hucking Dead 0 897.88 66.14 70/141 10-11
108 Sunken Circus 0 893.83 73.42 70/142 13-13
109 LORD 0 893.57 46.13 85/130 8-10
110 Chalice 0 885.25 56.5 81/133 5-9
111 Mixed Nuts 0 872.76 70.32 78/150 14-12
112 Possum 0 869.78 60.13 78/139 9-6
113 #Birdz 0 867.74 74.88 73/147 9-5
114 Buffalo Lake Effect 0 867.71 51.3 84/135 15-8
115 Coalition Ultimate 0 866.13 64.17 78/147 8-5
116 Fear and Loathing 0 850.5 74.29 74/150 5-6
117 Freetail 0 850.22 80.64 69/151 7-10
118 Albany Airbenders 0 843.99 63.64 82/147 9-15
119 Superstition 0 838.77 70.38 72/149 7-10
120 The Bandits 0 827.21 73.07 84/153 9-5
121 Bulleit Train 0 809.42 74.97 85/151 6-7
122 Dumpster Fire 0 790.62 73.62 85/160 4-10
123 Memphis Hustle & Flow 0 790.52 62.19 89/155 6-4
124 BRUH 0 765.93 76.56 85/164 4-10
125 Wingdings 0 762.51 62.49 96/157 6-8
126 Enough Monkeys 0 754.86 81.74 90/163 5-7
127 Springs Mixed Ulty Team 0 752.98 76.6 87/167 6-6
128 Crucible 0 750.48 78.74 87/163 11-4
129 Moonshine 0 744.76 77.73 88/163 6-9
130 RUT 0 742.87 76.26 95/166 9-11
131 The Strangers 0 740.56 78.85 87/164 4-7
132 Mad Udderburn 0 737.23 69.5 103/166 13-9
133 Petey's Pirates 0 734.28 61.8 99/161 11-7
134 Boomtown 0 728.42 118.27 71/172 7-3
135 Free Ride 0 727.47 70.01 105/159 7-9
136 Rainbow 0 724.71 53.35 107/156 14-14
137 Asylum 0 715.55 78.78 98/166 6-9
138 Swag State 0 708.25 91.63 94/169 3-7
139 Absolute Zero 0 702.72 87.2 96/166 4-7
140 Impact 0 691.64 52.55 112/165 8-6
141 Scarecrow 0 675.3 60.76 109/167 10-20
142 Carolina Reign 0 671.43 78.4 100/171 3-10
143 ELevate 0 657.29 62.12 116/168 10-11
144 Los Heros 0 657.11 55.87 118/166 9-13
145 MxD 0 634.71 52.7 117/167 5-9
146 Liquid Hustle 0 628.18 43.97 125/166 7-15
147 Flying Circus Disc Club 0 624.96 87.35 86/172 3-7
148 Spirit Fowl 0 621.4 61.53 121/173 8-12
149 Stormborn 0 618.59 70.85 115/170 4-15
150 OutKast 0 615.44 91.39 104/174 4-9
151 Mimosas 0 615.15 77.66 117/175 4-12
152 Rocket LawnChair 0 609.44 75.34 121/173 6-5
153 Jabba 0 590.86 67.41 117/173 8-11
154 Blitzkrieg 0 582.51 70.31 120/173 7-9
155 Feral Cows 0 580.14 71.01 117/174 3-8
156 District Cocktails 0 564.75 69.47 121/177 3-10
157 DR 0 560.58 54.95 131/171 1-10
158 North Coast Disc Co. 0 554.2 53 134/173 8-13
159 Oh My! 0 553.78 78.52 124/174 7-9
160 Baywatch 0 544.35 97.03 113/179 5-8
161 Stackcats 0 539.49 64.99 127/174 6-15
162 Mixed Results 0 536.35 60.3 131/176 8-13
163 Mastodon 0 531.24 98.83 116/178 5-8
164 Wildstyle 0 516.18 67.64 130/175 6-10
165 Glitter Bomb 0 493.7 73.37 134/176 3-9
166 Igneous Ultimate 0 482.98 60.38 139/176 0-10
167 Bitmap 0 480.64 75.52 130/178 4-10
168 Providence Mob 0 465.43 57.06 142/177 5-21
169 Friend Zone 0 435.55 90.88 130/179 2-12
170 Doppler Effect 0 428.8 58.41 147/178 7-15
171 Boomtown Pandas 0 427.09 53.39 154/177 5-15
172 Mousetrap 0 346.47 66.73 160/181 4-10
173 Fifth Element 0 334.93 56.95 161/180 4-8
174 I-79 0 332.68 48.31 164/180 3-11
175 Dead Reckoning 0 331.88 102.46 138/181 4-9
176 Skyhawks 0 305.26 62.27 163/181 4-10
177 Hot Stix 0 217.28 65.26 169/181 0-11
178 Heavy Flow 0 190.16 95.02 155/181 2-16
179 #Beez 0 167.12 95.9 164/182 3-11
180 Thunderpants the Magic Dragon 0 160.7 72.94 170/181 3-7
181 Turnstyle 0 132.55 90.76 167/181 1-12
182 Petey's Parrots 0 -299.68 115.14 181/182 1-15

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)