Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2022-23 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
2 Great Lakes 1.71 Cleveland Crocs 98.90%,   Hybrid 71.70%,   Chicago Parlay 0.20%,   RAMP 0.20%,  
2 Mid-Atlantic 1.74 AMP 100.00%,   Rally 68.40%,   Loco 5.80%,  
2 North Central 1.88 Drag'n Thrust 99.70%,   NOISE 87.70%,   Kansas City United 0.20%,  
3 Northeast 2.91 Sprocket 99.40%,   XIST 99.00%,   Slow 92.90%,  
3 Northwest 2.95 BFG 99.90%,   Red Flag 96.20%,   Seattle Mixtape 92.90%,   Oregon Scorch 6.30%,   MOONDOG 0.20%,  
1 South Central 1.35 shame. 100.00%,   Public Enemy 27.70%,   Love Tractor 6.90%,   Waterloo 0.90%,  
2 Southeast 2.05 Space Force 92.50%,   'Shine 81.70%,   Toro 18.00%,   Storm 13.00%,  
1 Southwest 1.4 Mischief 71.30%,   Lawless 35.00%,   Polar Bears 31.80%,   Sunshine 1.60%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region GL MA NC NE NW SC SE SW
Initial 1.710 1.742 1.876 2.913 2.955 1.355 2.052 1.397
Autos (all @ 1) 0.710 0.742 0.876 1.913 1.955 0.355 1.052 0.397
Northwest (@ 2) 0.710 0.742 0.876 1.913 0.955 0.355 1.052 0.397
Northeast (@ 2) 0.710 0.742 0.876 0.913 0.955 0.355 1.052 0.397
Southeast (@ 2) 0.710 0.742 0.876 0.913 0.955 0.355 0.052 0.397
Northwest (@ 3) 0.710 0.742 0.876 0.913 -0.045 0.355 0.052 0.397
Northeast (@ 3) 0.710 0.742 0.876 -0.087 -0.045 0.355 0.052 0.397
North Central (@ 2) 0.710 0.742 -0.124 -0.087 -0.045 0.355 0.052 0.397
Mid-Atlantic (@ 2) 0.710 -0.258 -0.124 -0.087 -0.045 0.355 0.052 0.397
Great Lakes (@ 2) -0.290 -0.258 -0.124 -0.087 -0.045 0.355 0.052 0.397
Total 2 2 2 3 3 1 2 1

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 shame. 1 2167.21 81.55 1/7 22-1
2 AMP 1 2067.85 63.87 1/14 14-4
3 BFG 0.999 1959.6 45.04 1/17 19-6
4 Drag'n Thrust 0.997 2072.18 96.53 1/18 10-5
5 Sprocket 0.994 1924.96 56.13 2/18 26-6
6 XIST 0.99 1920.86 50.89 2/19 23-6
7 Cleveland Crocs 0.989 1936.51 68.33 1/24 21-5
8 Red Flag 0.962 1876.21 50.82 2/22 21-3
9 Seattle Mixtape 0.929 1874.03 58.5 3/23 17-7
10 Slow 0.929 1849.58 44.53 4/23 21-7
11 Space Force 0.925 1890.7 77.01 1/27 11-5
12 NOISE 0.877 1893.89 90.8 2/27 8-5
13 'Shine 0.817 1851.08 68.7 2/25 20-8
14 Hybrid 0.717 1823.85 62.53 3/26 13-8
15 Mischief 0.713 1830.88 76.88 2/28 15-6
16 Rally 0.684 1833.74 99.06 2/33 16-5
17 Lawless 0.35 1763.19 63.23 4/30 14-8
18 Polar Bears 0.318 1761.21 57.24 6/32 11-13
19 Public Enemy 0.277 1738.53 80.73 3/43 19-8
20 Toro 0.18 1737.48 57.54 6/35 9-13
21 Storm 0.13 1689.35 81.38 5/44 17-4
22 Love Tractor 0.069 1707.03 59.94 10/38 14-10
23 Oregon Scorch 0.063 1676.76 79.32 7/49 16-8
24 Loco 0.058 1670.85 74.07 9/50 14-7
25 Sunshine 0.016 1647.42 64.83 14/44 18-5
26 Waterloo 0.009 1615.31 72.39 13/51 19-9
27 MOONDOG 0.002 1648.28 48.77 15/40 19-11
28 Chicago Parlay 0.002 1637.51 47.18 14/40 19-5
29 RAMP 0.002 1622.75 54.6 16/43 16-7
30 Kansas City United 0.002 1595.15 67.88 15/46 15-7
31 Flight Club 0 1635.27 50.01 17/40 19-7
32 Mile High Trash 0 1562.85 43.63 20/47 19-11
33 Tower 0 1548.37 62.49 19/52 21-8
34 Impact 0 1517.09 65.15 21/54 11-12
35 BW Ultimate 0 1511.22 48.35 26/53 25-11
36 LIT Ultimate 0 1509.2 60.05 23/57 22-9
37 Pittsburgh Port Authority 0 1501.11 53.24 25/55 14-6
38 Lotus 0 1495.04 62.95 23/56 19-8
39 UNION 0 1491.86 66.38 24/64 17-5
40 California Burrito 0 1488.22 47.59 27/54 18-12
41 The Chad Larson Experience 0 1481.04 62.52 21/63 3-7
42 Dirty Bird 0 1478.32 67.07 19/69 17-8
43 The Buoy Association 0 1474.01 58.01 22/62 19-7
44 Wild Card 0 1457.53 44.25 30/59 17-16
45 Revival 0 1436.06 67.62 25/68 14-8
46 Darkwing 0 1419.5 64.66 27/66 12-14
47 Townies 0 1402.86 59.4 29/65 16-8
48 Donuts 0 1396.52 48.33 33/68 19-18
49 Jughandle 0 1393.45 69.83 28/74 9-11
50 Classy 0 1383.8 45.96 36/66 12-18
51 Roma Ultima 0 1354.1 52.28 37/86 19-12
52 No Touching! 0 1344.08 76.98 30/84 9-2
53 Garbage Plates 0 1342.27 48.74 39/69 26-10
54 Steamboat 0 1339.4 51.64 34/74 22-8
55 Lights Out 0 1311.04 52.78 41/75 11-14
56 Greater Baltimore Anthem 0 1309.03 62.09 40/80 13-8
57 Minnesota Star Power 0 1295.76 60.58 40/84 12-8
58 Malice in Wonderland 0 1294.25 49.67 44/79 19-7
59 Funk 0 1261.89 46.3 46/89 20-7
60 Pegasus 0 1259.42 58.1 44/89 11-12
61 Obscure 0 1250.38 44.75 47/85 9-11
62 League of Shadows 0 1248.69 46.62 46/80 15-20
63 HVAC 0 1244.45 64.94 42/94 17-5
64 Robot 0 1238.99 60.79 44/95 17-8
65 Heat Wave 0 1236.17 55.61 45/95 18-16
66 Too Much Fun 0 1217.28 52.63 50/94 18-12
67 American Barbecue 0 1214.93 48.23 50/93 13-12
68 Grand Army 0 1204.31 42.17 50/98 14-14
69 Grit City 0 1195.37 65.4 47/103 15-9
70 Northern Comfort 0 1194.2 58.54 50/100 11-10
71 Sego 0 1191.34 58.11 51/98 13-11
72 Cutthroat 0 1186.95 64 49/101 16-14
73 Bullet Train 0 1162.69 57.3 52/109 12-18
74 Deadweight 0 1161.64 47.59 54/104 20-11
75 Brunch Club 0 1149.12 64.47 52/108 15-7
76 Flagstaff Ultimate 0 1142.99 68.19 51/113 11-10
77 Seattle Soft Serve 0 1132.01 64.1 50/113 13-7
78 Buffalo Lake Effect 0 1130.22 49.54 57/104 19-13
79 Risky Business 0 1126.47 52.22 52/110 13-11
80 Mad Udderburn 0 1121.14 55.62 53/109 13-9
81 m'kay Ultimate 0 1119.04 52.35 57/108 15-10
82 Spectre 0 1108.62 62.56 55/115 14-12
83 Hive 0 1088.37 54.71 60/116 17-17
84 Brackish 0 1086.1 66.29 58/119 19-9
85 Three Rivers Ultimate Club 0 1085.54 48.03 61/116 16-10
86 Crown Peach 0 1078.61 58.41 61/127 13-9
87 Mango 0 1077.18 57.92 63/114 16-11
88 Scarecrow 0 1068.5 55.37 58/116 16-9
89 Bench 0 1067.59 75.42 55/130 13-6
90 Farm Show 0 1055.09 67.93 59/121 12-7
91 FlyTrap 0 1053.4 49.19 69/124 12-11
92 Igneous Ultimate 0 1045.47 47.13 70/115 16-13
93 Green Chiles 0 1044.26 48.33 69/116 17-13
94 Space Ghosts 0 1038.16 55.45 71/122 16-15
95 Bird 0 1037.54 60.59 68/128 20-9
96 Legion 0 1034.18 50.23 70/116 17-9
97 Ant Madness 0 1027.9 44.79 74/120 19-7
98 Columbus Chaos 0 1027.53 63.5 65/124 15-6
99 Bear Jordan 0 1027.09 53.87 71/122 13-9
100 Pushovers 0 1025.51 59.45 69/134 12-9
101 Lampshade 0 1005.42 51.98 69/128 18-16
102 Dizzy Kitty 0 1003.82 78.62 65/134 6-5
103 Shipwreck 0 1002.23 61.92 73/129 10-15
104 Queen City Gambit 0 997.8 64.82 70/134 16-9
105 Jabba 0 992.19 49.69 72/126 20-9
106 Mashed 0 983.99 59.05 77/127 11-9
107 Garbage 0 966.3 103.58 55/152 7-4
108 Amber 0 964.64 74.86 66/144 12-4
109 Magnanimouse 0 961.58 46.5 84/128 13-12
110 Garage Sale 0 933.16 58.33 80/142 16-13
111 Barefoot 0 931.7 60.55 82/142 11-10
112 Squid Inc. 0 915.93 65.46 83/142 12-12
113 Mousetrap 0 914.95 64.97 81/145 13-9
114 Zero Strategy 0 891.48 54.69 93/147 7-8
115 Stackcats 0 890.78 47.38 97/146 14-19
116 904 Shipwreck 0 873.62 82.99 77/160 7-7
117 Sin Nombre 0 862.83 56.65 95/152 11-13
118 Point of No Return 0 861.51 66.81 88/152 13-10
119 Skyhawks 0 856.02 75.23 85/159 9-16
120 Catalyst 0 854.77 65.87 91/152 8-9
121 Firefly 0 853.69 43.84 93/151 12-14
122 Karma 0 851.96 55.12 95/153 6-18
123 PS 0 844.57 55.01 102/149 11-13
124 Goosebumps 0 843.61 46.75 101/149 15-15
125 The Strangers 0 829.16 71.66 88/161 9-15
126 Madison United Mixed Ultimate 0 824.22 64.3 103/157 11-12
127 Heavy Flow 0 823.99 53.29 103/153 10-15
128 FLI 0 818.29 51.28 95/153 10-13
129 Verdant 0 810.39 59.15 104/151 9-14
130 ColorBomb 0 805.31 62.44 94/159 11-12
131 Toast! 0 803.62 50.3 109/155 11-14
132 Family Style 0 795.65 60.23 104/161 5-13
133 Memphis STAX 0 795.54 83.17 85/167 6-8
134 Moontower 0 794.6 55.97 110/160 6-11
135 NY Swipes 0 790.42 48.11 112/155 17-15
136 Mesteño 0 787.33 73.57 91/169 5-13
137 Lobrid 0 785.95 60.41 107/163 10-12
138 Pandamonium 0 785.85 85.67 86/170 10-9
139 Spoiler Alert 0 785.69 65.82 106/158 8-10
140 DR 0 784.62 47.2 102/158 13-12
141 Sunken Circus 0 771.74 62.55 104/161 15-8
142 Espionage 0 771.56 62.91 104/164 12-13
143 Prion 0 761.72 59.02 112/164 12-14
144 Indiana Pterodactyl Attack 0 747.33 61.5 111/165 11-14
145 Octonauts 0 731.99 51.67 111/165 9-16
146 Boomtown Pandas 0 727.04 68.1 108/176 11-11
147 Happy Hour 0 702.88 106.14 95/185 1-5
148 Choco Ghost House 0 690.8 74.38 105/172 9-8
149 Nebula 0 681.68 53.83 122/174 9-16
150 Philly Twist 0 655.55 50.95 129/170 6-13
151 The Force 0 651.87 56.31 123/173 9-11
152 District Cocktails 0 649.62 56.39 126/176 8-16
153 Eat Lightning 0 649.39 45.56 132/170 12-15
154 Frostbite 0 646.15 71.54 123/180 12-12
155 VU 0 630.66 58.71 134/175 10-17
156 Melt 0 620.06 68.8 123/181 10-12
157 Starfire 0 602.97 58.03 129/181 9-19
158 Crucible 0 600.41 50.79 142/177 8-17
159 2Fly2Furious 0 581.62 87.23 127/188 7-13
160 Great Minnesota Get Together 0 566.89 71.27 133/188 7-12
161 Rainbow 0 565.25 78.13 134/188 7-16
162 Drip 0 561.34 64.73 132/180 5-12
163 Thunderpants the Magic Dragon 0 556.64 99.73 121/192 6-7
164 Swampbenders 0 548.56 44.39 150/183 7-16
165 Springs Mixed Greens 0 541.33 85.21 129/190 2-15
166 Breakers Mark 0 539.79 108.38 118/191 1-5
167 MoonPi 0 531.91 59.16 145/188 6-14
168 Pixel 0 524.78 92.55 131/191 7-13
169 Spice 0 523.93 60.77 143/185 7-18
170 Air Throwmads 0 515.63 59.38 149/186 7-18
171 New Orleans Boil 0 504.14 50.89 151/187 6-10
172 Quahogs 0 480.8 74.88 142/192 8-14
173 Buffalo Brain Freeze 0 479.62 55.1 151/186 5-21
174 Piedmont United 0 469.97 66.28 151/191 4-14
175 Mastodon 0 463.36 56.35 155/190 10-16
176 ELevate 0 452.38 52.02 157/188 5-17
177 Lake Superior Disc 0 446.79 66.75 151/191 6-12
178 Chalice 0 444.91 88.93 144/193 3-10
179 Quails 0 419.03 107.18 146/198 3-7
180 Brooklyn Hive 0 405.07 48.71 165/192 2-19
181 Compost Plates 0 402.26 62.96 159/194 3-18
182 Flood Zone 0 376.91 63.01 159/193 3-13
183 Hairy Otter 0 375.26 100.66 152/198 3-12
184 Replay 0 358.97 54.15 169/195 2-18
185 Moonlight Ultimate 0 327.66 73.03 167/197 3-20
186 Scoober Heroes 0 310.05 100.36 162/199 3-15
187 Night Cap 0 294.9 82.23 154/199 2-14
188 Birds of Paradise 0 265.05 71.71 172/199 4-19
189 POW! 0 259.66 60.66 175/198 4-15
190 Equinox 0 246.42 135.48 152/199 1-3
191 Voltage 0 241.9 72.1 167/199 3-14
192 Mad City Vibes 0 233.02 68.43 167/199 4-16
193 Rampage 0 203.33 70.8 179/199 5-17
194 Central Arkansas Surge 0 170 126.99 160/199 3-15
195 SkyLab 0 142.38 80.71 179/199 1-16
196 PanIC 0 141.8 63.61 183/199 3-22
197 NYWT 0 103.75 114.66 160/199 1-11
198 Underdogs 0 84.14 67.3 186/199 2-19
199 Pickles 0 26.54 72.36 188/199 1-22

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)