Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2024-25 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
1 Atlantic Coast 1.46 North Carolina 98.80%,   Virginia 44.00%,   Georgetown 3.40%,  
1 Great Lakes 1.75 Michigan 97.10%,   Notre Dame 78.30%,  
1 Metro East 0
2 New England 2.04 Tufts 100.00%,   Vermont 100.00%,   Northeastern 3.70%,  
1 North Central 1.13 Carleton College 100.00%,   Minnesota 13.00%,  
6 Northwest 6.23 Oregon 100.00%,   British Columbia 100.00%,   Washington 100.00%,   Victoria 94.10%,   Utah 89.40%,   Brigham Young 69.80%,   Western Washington 69.60%,  
1 Ohio Valley 0.99 Pennsylvania 55.90%,   Ohio State 42.20%,   Ohio 0.30%,   Pittsburgh 0.10%,  
1 South Central 1.11 Colorado 100.00%,   Texas 8.70%,   Missouri 2.40%,   Texas-Dallas 0.20%,  
1 Southeast 0.03 Georgia 2.40%,   Georgia Tech 0.20%,  
5 Southwest 5.26 Stanford 100.00%,   California-San Diego 100.00%,   California-Santa Cruz 99.80%,   Cal Poly-SLO 99.40%,   California-Santa Barbara 98.90%,   California-Davis 28.30%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region AC GL ME NE NC NW OV SC SE SW
Initial 1.462 1.754 0.000 2.037 1.130 6.229 0.985 1.113 0.026 5.264
Autos (all @ 1) 0.462 0.754 -1.000 1.037 0.130 5.229 -0.015 0.113 -0.974 4.264
Northwest (@ 2) 0.462 0.754 -1.000 1.037 0.130 4.229 -0.015 0.113 -0.974 4.264
Southwest (@ 2) 0.462 0.754 -1.000 1.037 0.130 4.229 -0.015 0.113 -0.974 3.264
Northwest (@ 3) 0.462 0.754 -1.000 1.037 0.130 3.229 -0.015 0.113 -0.974 3.264
Southwest (@ 3) 0.462 0.754 -1.000 1.037 0.130 3.229 -0.015 0.113 -0.974 2.264
Northwest (@ 4) 0.462 0.754 -1.000 1.037 0.130 2.229 -0.015 0.113 -0.974 2.264
Southwest (@ 4) 0.462 0.754 -1.000 1.037 0.130 2.229 -0.015 0.113 -0.974 1.264
Northwest (@ 5) 0.462 0.754 -1.000 1.037 0.130 1.229 -0.015 0.113 -0.974 1.264
Southwest (@ 5) 0.462 0.754 -1.000 1.037 0.130 1.229 -0.015 0.113 -0.974 0.264
Northwest (@ 6) 0.462 0.754 -1.000 1.037 0.130 0.229 -0.015 0.113 -0.974 0.264
New England (@ 2) 0.462 0.754 -1.000 0.037 0.130 0.229 -0.015 0.113 -0.974 0.264
Total 1 1 1 2 1 6 1 1 1 5

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 British Columbia 1 2575.94 70.64 1/6 27-1
2 Carleton College 1 2568.81 133.26 1/13 23-2
3 Tufts 1 2488.77 99.41 1/8 25-0
4 Colorado 1 2328.58 86.53 1/12 23-4
5 Vermont 1 2289.71 101.37 1/15 21-5
6 Washington 1 2262.76 65.97 2/12 19-10
7 Oregon 1 2196.79 57.68 3/15 21-10
8 Stanford 1 2134.37 65.93 4/20 22-12
9 California-San Diego 1 2115.57 39.61 5/18 23-16
10 California-Santa Cruz 0.998 2041.54 45.48 6/21 18-12
11 Cal Poly-SLO 0.994 2083.14 69.06 4/24 26-12
12 California-Santa Barbara 0.989 2067.73 75.29 5/25 20-9
13 North Carolina 0.988 2122.91 94.08 4/24 25-5
14 Michigan 0.971 2113.92 104.61 3/26 20-4
15 Victoria 0.941 1990.7 55.97 8/24 13-19
16 Utah 0.894 2011.59 81.47 5/31 20-9
17 Notre Dame 0.783 1970.55 89.48 6/31 21-5
18 Brigham Young 0.698 1934.97 58.82 9/28 9-10
19 Western Washington 0.696 1946.41 79.21 7/31 16-15
20 Pennsylvania 0.559 1912.93 47.52 12/28 20-8
21 Virginia 0.44 1901.06 70.31 10/35 28-9
22 Ohio State 0.422 1893.06 80.42 8/35 22-8
23 California-Davis 0.283 1875.64 57.39 13/33 15-17
24 Minnesota 0.13 1823.12 74.58 12/36 16-7
25 Texas 0.087 1765.24 108.16 11/57 11-9
26 Northeastern 0.037 1802.53 62.95 16/37 16-12
27 Georgetown 0.034 1801 55.61 16/37 21-8
28 Missouri 0.024 1731.99 91.02 17/57 21-4
29 Georgia 0.024 1726.12 88.13 17/55 18-5
30 Ohio 0.003 1671.76 82.57 20/57 19-5
31 Georgia Tech 0.002 1651.61 83.17 20/57 23-7
32 Texas-Dallas 0.002 1553.39 103.05 20/72 9-9
33 Pittsburgh 0.001 1694.22 60.71 16/52 17-10
34 UCLA 0 1714.42 55.87 21/44 21-23
35 Cornell 0 1641.42 64.5 24/54 21-3
36 Wisconsin 0 1633.8 60.84 24/54 16-12
37 Haverford/Bryn Mawr 0 1619.05 75.65 23/59 22-7
38 William & Mary 0 1602.87 57.9 25/58 15-9
39 MIT 0 1588.82 49.9 28/57 12-10
40 Wesleyan 0 1587.33 91.11 23/66 20-3
41 California 0 1581.98 59.64 27/53 17-15
42 Southern California 0 1572.33 56.56 26/59 14-18
43 Duke 0 1565.5 66.8 26/60 23-9
44 Washington University 0 1560.35 67.86 25/61 18-7
45 American 0 1542.41 71.75 25/70 21-11
46 Carleton College-Eclipse 0 1538.86 77.82 26/68 14-4
47 Whitman 0 1505.02 98.18 25/78 16-2
48 Kenyon 0 1498.8 75.55 26/82 20-1
49 Liberty 0 1489.97 81.62 27/79 20-9
50 Middlebury 0 1481.68 70.6 30/74 20-2
51 Oregon State 0 1472.23 62.21 32/72 16-13
52 Maryland 0 1457.11 64.88 34/76 17-14
53 Colorado State 0 1452.17 68.47 32/70 3-15
54 St Olaf 0 1441.22 96.63 29/92 14-10
55 Rochester 0 1421.74 51.11 42/70 19-4
56 James Madison 0 1406.04 63.47 36/78 13-12
57 Davenport 0 1403.13 79.44 32/86 19-1
58 Central Florida 0 1397.07 81.83 27/93 14-7
59 South Carolina 0 1384.98 66.24 39/83 12-12
60 British Columbia-B 0 1378.04 58.38 44/77 6-9
61 Brown 0 1351.28 39.84 47/79 13-14
62 Chicago 0 1344.44 86.5 31/94 16-9
63 Connecticut 0 1319.82 57.67 45/88 17-9
64 Florida 0 1319.34 73.15 43/100 15-7
65 Illinois 0 1308.53 61.63 49/92 21-9
66 Lewis & Clark 0 1297.81 82.91 43/96 12-5
67 Santa Clara 0 1296.47 50.62 51/89 16-12
68 North Carolina State 0 1294.32 71.39 47/96 9-13
69 Carnegie Mellon 0 1279.15 58.78 52/91 11-14
70 Union (Tennessee) 0 1270.35 69.89 42/99 11-1
71 Purdue 0 1260.94 76.81 46/104 13-9
72 Colorado College 0 1260.16 79.16 47/104 17-7
73 Penn State 0 1259.73 58.77 52/98 13-17
74 Mount Holyoke 0 1222.8 47.89 59/98 12-5
75 Columbia 0 1219.45 68.44 55/109 13-12
76 Grand Canyon 0 1216.4 70.32 50/106 13-5
77 Appalachian State 0 1215.16 73.19 51/112 15-13
78 Portland 0 1206.76 70.9 53/113 13-11
79 Case Western Reserve 0 1201.55 72.15 54/110 10-13
80 Tennessee 0 1196.93 64.38 60/107 21-8
81 California-Irvine 0 1190.17 47.82 60/102 23-12
82 Clemson 0 1163.67 73.5 52/119 12-6
83 Richmond 0 1148.86 67.67 59/111 12-5
84 Wellesley 0 1143.84 55.26 65/108 19-7
85 Vermont-B 0 1139.79 60.84 63/113 12-7
86 Michigan Tech 0 1133.92 63.49 64/113 12-7
87 Rice 0 1127.4 73.01 64/118 12-6
88 Williams 0 1118.74 54.74 68/109 20-8
89 SUNY-Buffalo 0 1116.34 60.62 65/114 18-8
90 NYU 0 1111.74 72.02 65/120 16-8
91 Iowa State 0 1111.73 63.15 68/117 18-12
92 Ithaca 0 1094.08 45.89 72/113 14-10
93 Marquette 0 1094.02 95.89 59/134 8-6
94 Arkansas 0 1091.69 87.22 56/129 7-6
95 Lehigh 0 1090.28 62.02 68/117 15-17
96 Wisconsin-Eau Claire 0 1085.78 76.23 64/122 13-9
97 Emory 0 1075.33 60.12 64/121 15-11
98 Macalester 0 1054.48 96.24 59/139 13-7
99 Virginia Tech 0 1049.35 53.84 76/119 6-16
100 Yale 0 1041.01 68.65 71/129 11-13
101 San Diego State 0 1035.81 52.68 76/123 15-12
102 Montana 0 1028.43 103.46 57/144 7-9
103 Denver 0 1027.31 57.28 74/125 15-8
104 Alabama-Huntsville 0 1023.86 194.34 32/185 1-3
105 Temple 0 1021.69 64.64 73/128 5-16
106 Michigan State 0 1006.03 70.96 77/133 13-11
107 Kansas 0 998.48 101.15 67/163 6-7
108 SUNY-Binghamton 0 970.18 60.66 77/130 14-14
109 West Chester 0 951.97 65.43 81/141 4-16
110 Arizona State 0 951.81 56.25 85/134 16-14
111 Cedarville 0 947.08 47.33 90/128 13-8
112 Puget Sound 0 943.82 53.39 90/137 8-9
113 Northwestern 0 939.88 67.64 86/140 10-19
114 Swarthmore 0 939.23 54.79 87/135 13-11
115 Brown-B 0 937.46 79.15 74/151 11-6
116 Loyola-Chicago 0 928.79 87.92 79/158 12-11
117 Cincinnati 0 911.56 57.96 91/143 12-12
118 California-San Diego-B 0 910.49 68.52 90/153 17-13
119 Jacksonville State 0 885.74 49.04 98/138 9-8
120 Georgia College 0 856.15 53.95 104/149 7-8
121 North Carolina-Wilmington 0 847.29 56.15 104/149 11-24
122 Butler 0 845.17 82.89 92/160 7-5
123 Winona State 0 844.6 56.33 106/159 14-11
124 Harvard 0 833.28 82.13 97/163 9-14
125 Iowa 0 826.07 93.1 94/171 12-10
126 Grand Valley 0 814.79 60.05 106/157 11-13
127 Northern Arizona 0 813.01 99.07 85/177 4-8
128 Claremont 0 811.23 65.53 101/162 11-10
129 Trinity 0 802.96 47.59 111/152 10-12
130 Massachusetts 0 798.22 86.34 101/179 9-12
131 Rutgers 0 792.75 63.71 108/164 13-15
132 George Washington 0 791.3 62.5 102/159 9-13
133 Stanford-B 0 742.26 121.45 91/190 1-5
134 Saint Louis 0 737.53 91.29 107/179 7-11
135 Catholic 0 734.02 65.87 105/171 6-11
136 Utah State 0 731.85 180.89 66/212 4-4
137 California-B 0 726.7 95.9 102/184 5-6
138 Knox 0 725.69 66.65 110/178 8-10
139 Wisconsin-La Crosse 0 724.19 79.75 109/180 9-14
140 Claremont-B 0 724.06 161.31 71/205 1-2
141 Boston University 0 722.6 88.56 107/181 7-14
142 Dartmouth 0 708.43 93.12 101/183 6-9
143 Davidson 0 704.52 52.82 121/170 11-8
144 Boston College 0 693.33 83.66 104/182 6-17
145 North Carolina-B 0 689.22 73.45 118/179 10-9
146 Tufts-B 0 681.83 84.07 110/188 2-3
147 Xavier 0 677.47 60.61 118/177 10-11
148 Berry 0 677.43 76.58 114/182 8-9
149 Georgia Southern 0 673.6 56.57 120/174 9-15
150 Bates 0 671.73 58.17 125/184 7-13
151 Charleston 0 665 65.66 121/186 8-17
152 Syracuse 0 663.44 53.11 124/176 10-15
153 Colby 0 659.88 75.17 120/182 4-10
154 SUNY-Geneseo 0 646.31 57.1 129/179 8-17
155 Alabama 0 640.88 92.12 114/190 7-7
156 Cal Poly-SLO-B 0 630.95 73.99 121/189 7-14
157 East Carolina 0 625.91 84.22 122/187 5-6
158 Montana State 0 622.57 132.87 97/208 4-11
159 Delaware 0 609.22 58.07 124/184 8-5
160 Miami (Florida) 0 609.04 47.15 136/180 16-15
161 Pacific Lutheran 0 603 69.88 129/190 5-10
162 Florida State 0 599.77 59.57 124/187 12-11
163 New Hampshire 0 581.93 50.05 139/184 8-20
164 RIT 0 581.8 121.88 113/216 2-7
165 Tulane 0 572.18 78.85 126/191 8-5
166 Nevada-Reno 0 555.8 87.89 124/198 5-12
167 George Mason 0 543.78 50.1 141/190 6-6
168 Michigan-B 0 542.67 79.37 130/194 9-13
169 Arizona 0 532.91 55.52 141/191 6-14
170 Vermont-C 0 525.76 42.69 153/186 4-7
171 Occidental 0 525.62 83.59 133/198 5-6
172 Skidmore 0 521.4 66.86 140/192 10-12
173 SUNY-Stony Brook 0 518.93 49.92 150/190 4-15
174 Missouri State 0 495.17 174.88 102/218 1-4
175 Wake Forest 0 494.81 99.18 132/210 3-9
176 Colorado-B 0 493.36 95.93 134/204 3-12
177 LSU 0 490.29 60.11 147/198 12-13
178 Colorado Mines 0 470.45 98.94 135/205 5-5
179 St Olaf-B 0 470.42 80.29 142/204 4-15
180 California-Davis-B 0 468.66 100.23 130/210 1-5
181 Minnesota-B 0 467.82 246.02 63/230 3-6
182 UCLA-B 0 462.49 58.51 148/196 10-13
183 Indiana 0 454.59 82.3 147/205 8-10
184 Harding 0 454.21 153.03 108/226 3-4
185 Oberlin 0 440.83 81.39 151/205 1-16
186 Truman State 0 433.99 62.59 152/201 8-17
187 Messiah 0 396.79 186.27 104/227 1-3
188 Tennessee-Chattanooga 0 395.01 70.04 157/207 7-16
189 Texas A&M 0 348.05 91.15 159/220 3-8
190 Towson 0 301.29 130.62 153/224 4-8
191 Vanderbilt 0 280.82 70.81 170/218 9-17
192 Georgetown-B 0 274.31 80.24 168/219 6-7
193 Georgia-B 0 272.62 83.7 146/220 4-18
194 Dayton 0 268.9 106.33 160/224 4-8
195 Washington University-B 0 262.07 82.97 172/222 4-13
196 Texas State 0 241.47 11.81 190/207 0-2
197 Cal Poly-Humboldt 0 220.06 145.38 128/227 2-15
198 Florida Tech 0 216.79 79.13 176/224 5-12
199 Cal State-Long Beach 0 216.03 109.86 170/225 5-17
200 California-Santa Barbara-B 0 206.57 105.95 168/227 1-5
201 Dickinson 0 205.15 101.01 169/225 3-13
202 Washington-B 0 195.47 148.47 163/230 2-8
203 South Carolina-B 0 187.46 104.95 168/226 4-9
204 Carleton College-C 0 180.25 134.34 159/229 2-4
205 Elon 0 165.12 88.19 178/225 1-9
206 Georgia Tech-B 0 163.98 189.45 140/231 1-5
207 Johns Hopkins 0 155.69 111.71 169/230 3-9
208 Northeastern-B 0 131.39 85.19 188/227 1-14
209 Auburn 0 124.76 76.32 187/229 3-17
210 Cornell-B 0 120.39 101.52 184/229 1-9
211 Miami (Ohio) 0 108.1 172.54 160/232 2-8
212 Florida-B 0 83.7 78.5 187/227 2-18
213 William & Mary-B 0 75.82 93.59 180/229 2-11
214 Connecticut College 0 75.32 131.81 173/230 0-9
215 Utah-B 0 60.9 174.38 145/231 0-11
216 Arizona-B 0 40.86 138.78 181/231 0-6
217 Columbia-B 0 40.54 115.1 181/231 1-9
218 Pennsylvania-B 0 35.03 174.17 128/232 0-11
219 Wisconsin-B 0 26.43 91.03 188/230 0-10
220 Notre Dame-B 0 20.99 119.16 182/230 2-15
221 Alabama-Birmingham 0 16.96 47.99 203/228 1-3
222 California-San Diego-C 0 -25.95 101.46 192/231 3-20
223 Lewis & Clark -B 0 -38.61 303.77 96/232 0-6
224 Colorado College-B 0 -46.09 133.98 184/232 0-10
225 American-B 0 -60.35 97.39 193/231 4-15
226 Northwestern-B 0 -91.05 185.04 183/232 0-9
227 Purdue-B 0 -114.02 107.75 187/232 1-17
228 Texas-B 0 -135.46 218.46 143/232 0-11
229 John Brown 0 -165.86 288.75 154/232 0-4
230 Emory-B 0 -313.98 207.05 183/232 0-17
231 Virginia-B 0 -409.58 275.73 173/232 0-12
232 Southern California-B 0 -563.96 198.94 218/232 0-7

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)