Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2024 Club/2025 College Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
1 Great Lakes 1.4 6ixers 100.00%,   Outrage 40.30%,  
3 Mid-Atlantic 3.04 Scandal 100.00%,   Parcha 100.00%,   Grit 98.40%,   Flight 5.40%,  
1 North Central 0.15 Heist 15.20%,  
4 Northeast 4.01 Brute Squad 100.00%,   BENT 100.00%,   Iris 100.00%,   Starling 100.00%,   Siege 0.70%,  
1 Northwest 1.08 Schwa 55.60%,   Seattle Riot 36.00%,   Traffic 16.50%,  
2 South Central 2.63 Colorado Kelp 100.00%,   Dimes 89.60%,   Colorado Small Batch 71.70%,   Gila Monster 1.20%,   San Antonio Problems 0.20%,  
2 Southeast 1.69 Phoenix 100.00%,   Ozone 68.50%,  
2 Southwest 2.01 Fury 100.00%,   Flipside 88.90%,   Nightlock 11.80%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region GL MA NC NE NW SC SE SW
Initial 1.403 3.038 0.152 4.007 1.081 2.627 1.685 2.007
Autos (all @ 1) 0.403 2.038 -0.848 3.007 0.081 1.627 0.685 1.007
Northeast (@ 2) 0.403 2.038 -0.848 2.007 0.081 1.627 0.685 1.007
Mid-Atlantic (@ 2) 0.403 1.038 -0.848 2.007 0.081 1.627 0.685 1.007
Northeast (@ 3) 0.403 1.038 -0.848 1.007 0.081 1.627 0.685 1.007
South Central (@ 2) 0.403 1.038 -0.848 1.007 0.081 0.627 0.685 1.007
Mid-Atlantic (@ 3) 0.403 0.038 -0.848 1.007 0.081 0.627 0.685 1.007
Southwest (@ 2) 0.403 0.038 -0.848 1.007 0.081 0.627 0.685 0.007
Northeast (@ 4) 0.403 0.038 -0.848 0.007 0.081 0.627 0.685 0.007
Southeast (@ 2) 0.403 0.038 -0.848 0.007 0.081 0.627 -0.315 0.007
Total 1 3 1 4 1 2 2 2

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 Brute Squad 1 2268.56 120.84 1/7 4-0
2 BENT 1 2230.17 92.41 1/6 12-0
3 Scandal 1 2105.79 101.45 1/12 4-1
4 6ixers 1 2077.92 106.2 1/12 5-1
5 Fury 1 1975.62 113.97 1/15 6-0
6 Iris 1 1938.65 86.1 2/14 8-4
7 Parcha 1 1929.82 110.18 1/16 4-2
8 Phoenix 1 1901.55 55.97 3/13 6-3
9 Colorado Kelp 1 1854.34 79.72 3/16 3-3
10 Starling 1 1805.88 57.73 5/16 8-4
11 Grit 0.984 1736.87 77.5 5/19 2-2
12 Dimes 0.896 1784.89 201.74 1/27 11-0
13 Flipside 0.889 1620.06 61.74 8/20 5-1
14 Colorado Small Batch 0.717 1583.36 98.82 7/25 7-0
15 Ozone 0.685 1576.79 78.01 10/23 7-4
16 Schwa 0.556 1563.84 196.21 4/36 10-2
17 Outrage 0.403 1519.69 92.22 9/26 7-5
18 Seattle Riot 0.36 1478.25 172.28 4/36 2-2
19 Traffic 0.165 1428.75 109.79 10/31 3-3
20 Heist 0.152 1470.54 68.3 13/25 5-7
21 Nightlock 0.118 1334.2 172.66 9/47 8-3
22 Flight 0.054 1428.81 65.61 14/27 0-5
23 Gila Monster 0.012 1220.83 146.87 12/43 2-3
24 Siege 0.007 1316.03 86.06 15/35 6-6
25 San Antonio Problems 0.002 1212.84 108.54 16/38 5-4
26 Haboob 0 1218.4 81.25 18/37 5-2
27 Stellar 0 1181.17 81.28 18/37 6-7
28 Wicked 0 1148.11 77.11 20/37 4-8
29 Nemesis 0 1147.74 102.02 19/43 1-3
30 Pop 0 1145.13 101.52 17/41 2-3
31 Crush City 0 1126.64 90.54 20/39 5-6
32 Agency 0 1119.91 106.24 17/42 3-3
33 Dark Sky 0 1106.04 107.18 20/42 3-3
34 Brooklyn Book Club 0 1053.84 69.72 23/39 7-3
35 Lake Erie Walleye 0 1004.12 134.82 19/54 9-2
36 Zephyr 0 888.53 86.89 29/56 3-7
37 Juice Box 0 886.66 80.59 27/49 5-7
38 Vengeance 0 873.54 122.37 25/56 3-3
39 Indy Rogue 0 806.24 94.48 31/56 6-5
40 Underground 0 806.11 75.99 32/53 1-5
41 Trainwreck 0 778.03 120.4 24/57 1-5
42 Wave 0 756.49 91.84 32/56 5-4
43 Pizza Rat 0 752.87 59.8 36/54 7-3
44 Shiver 0 736.72 78.2 35/57 7-5
45 Tabby Rosa 0 719.96 80.76 35/56 4-8
46 Magma 0 711.43 98.38 34/57 6-4
47 Just Add Water 0 685.67 111.68 30/58 1-5
48 CHAOS 0 655.17 98.51 34/58 3-9
49 Dish 0 645.23 113.04 33/58 3-3
50 Swell 0 639.88 93.92 31/58 2-5
51 Sureshot 0 617.02 83.86 38/58 3-2
52 Vice 0 601.9 93.08 38/58 5-2
53 FAB 0 589.64 65.07 41/57 4-8
54 TWISTED 0 573.74 123.2 36/59 1-4
55 Calypso 0 557.94 78.27 39/58 3-3
56 Virginia Rebellion 0 485.23 80.55 44/59 4-2
57 Pine Baroness 0 419.76 76.46 43/60 5-6
58 Fiasco 0 289.32 84.26 54/61 6-6
59 Medusa 0 157.03 48.09 58/62 5-8
60 Versa 0 107.05 73.1 57/62 1-5
61 Portland Rain Check 0 -176.79 253.82 48/62 1-5
62 Seattle Soul 0 -382.22 312.88 48/62 1-5

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)