Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2018-19 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
1 Great Lakes 1.59 Rival 100.00%,   Nemesis 59.00%,  
1 Mid-Atlantic 1.13 Scandal 100.00%,   Grit 13.30%,   Virginia Rebellion 0.10%,  
1 North Central 0.07 Pop 7.00%,  
4 Northeast 3.7 6ixers 100.00%,   Brute Squad 100.00%,   Siege 98.20%,   Iris 50.90%,   BENT 20.50%,  
3 Northwest 3.15 Seattle Riot 100.00%,   Schwa 100.00%,   Traffic 97.90%,   Underground 16.90%,  
1 South Central 1.45 Molly Brown 100.00%,   Showdown 44.50%,  
2 Southeast 1.99 Phoenix 100.00%,   Ozone 98.40%,   Steel 0.10%,   Tabby Rosa 0.10%,  
3 Southwest 2.93 Nightlock 100.00%,   Fury 100.00%,   Wildfire 91.70%,   LOL 1.40%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region GL MA NC NE NW SC SE SW
Initial 1.590 1.134 0.070 3.696 3.148 1.445 1.986 2.931
Autos (all @ 1) 0.590 0.134 -0.930 2.696 2.148 0.445 0.986 1.931
Northeast (@ 2) 0.590 0.134 -0.930 1.696 2.148 0.445 0.986 1.931
Northwest (@ 2) 0.590 0.134 -0.930 1.696 1.148 0.445 0.986 1.931
Southwest (@ 2) 0.590 0.134 -0.930 1.696 1.148 0.445 0.986 0.931
Northeast (@ 3) 0.590 0.134 -0.930 0.696 1.148 0.445 0.986 0.931
Northwest (@ 3) 0.590 0.134 -0.930 0.696 0.148 0.445 0.986 0.931
Southeast (@ 2) 0.590 0.134 -0.930 0.696 0.148 0.445 -0.014 0.931
Southwest (@ 3) 0.590 0.134 -0.930 0.696 0.148 0.445 -0.014 -0.069
Northeast (@ 4) 0.590 0.134 -0.930 -0.304 0.148 0.445 -0.014 -0.069
Total 1 1 1 4 3 1 2 3

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 Fury 1 2502.24 66.29 1/5 16-3
2 Seattle Riot 1 2413.39 73.41 1/7 16-3
3 Molly Brown 1 2349.43 112.72 1/7 20-5
4 Brute Squad 1 2343.67 78.94 1/7 12-3
5 Scandal 1 2254.63 47.26 2/7 11-7
6 6ixers 1 2239.36 76.32 1/9 8-4
7 Phoenix 1 2147.19 72.21 3/12 14-6
8 Schwa 1 1985.49 41.41 7/15 14-11
9 Nightlock 1 1948.3 53.33 7/16 12-14
10 Rival 1 1913.04 40.27 7/16 16-10
11 Ozone 0.984 1904.57 68.08 7/19 6-7
12 Siege 0.982 1913.69 78 7/20 24-2
13 Traffic 0.979 1937.23 88.18 6/21 16-3
14 Wildfire 0.917 1870.04 86.14 7/21 10-5
15 Nemesis 0.59 1763.98 57.24 11/22 8-11
16 Iris 0.509 1751.91 69 8/23 10-2
17 Showdown 0.445 1727.24 151.31 7/30 9-10
18 BENT 0.205 1693.55 84.64 11/27 17-7
19 Underground 0.169 1696.48 60.71 13/24 17-10
20 Grit 0.133 1613.28 132.94 8/38 9-8
21 Pop 0.07 1633.37 83.01 12/29 10-7
22 LOL 0.014 1512.02 106.28 14/41 10-4
23 Tabby Rosa 0.001 1557.69 67.79 16/33 13-4
24 Virginia Rebellion 0.001 1447.7 86.25 16/37 25-7
25 Steel 0.001 1379.65 94.36 16/42 11-1
26 Salty 0 1463.7 70.03 18/35 13-8
27 Elevate 0 1433.54 74.09 18/38 8-12
28 Wicked 0 1410.01 68.63 17/37 10-10
29 Colorado Small Batch 0 1397.71 71.35 20/38 9-14
30 Fusion 0 1383.04 106.19 17/43 14-0
31 Heist 0 1371.72 62.54 21/36 3-14
32 Seattle Soul 0 1257.99 57.69 26/43 22-8
33 Rampage 0 1225.19 90.04 20/47 9-6
34 FAB 0 1215.76 80.1 24/48 12-11
35 Stella 0 1211.9 92.96 24/48 5-7
36 Pine Baroness 0 1209.04 65.42 26/47 13-9
37 Vice 0 1175.88 44.73 30/46 23-10
38 Frolic 0 1164.85 80.22 27/52 13-9
39 Rebel Rebel 0 1150.87 91.89 26/50 20-4
40 Queen Cake 0 1116.99 65.49 30/49 13-7
41 Indy Rogue 0 1100.16 71.02 30/52 16-5
42 Crush City 0 1085.87 112.26 22/56 16-6
43 Brooklyn Book Club 0 1082.18 51.32 33/49 25-9
44 Taco Truck 0 1053.99 63.5 32/52 11-8
45 Fiasco 0 1023.87 83.28 33/62 7-8
46 TOX6ix 0 978.2 72.56 35/57 6-7
47 Stellar 0 972.24 89.04 30/60 14-6
48 Venus 0 956.73 105.65 33/63 3-8
49 Dish 0 875.68 80.56 40/64 7-14
50 Venom 0 871.77 79.32 40/64 12-9
51 Outbreak 0 864.36 53.88 43/60 8-9
52 Agency 0 861.73 64.34 41/61 16-9
53 Portland Ivy 0 854.64 63.24 42/63 7-9
54 Crackle 0 833.07 55.7 45/61 11-11
55 Trainwreck 0 769.67 94.04 38/66 8-7
56 Huntsville Laika 0 765.09 30.78 51/63 9-10
57 Notorious C.L.E. 0 735.54 67.75 47/66 7-6
58 Eliza Furnace 0 725.78 40.15 51/64 14-10
59 Hot Metal 0 719.64 56.59 49/66 6-21
60 Jackwagon 0 710.59 80.8 46/67 9-13
61 Broad City 0 660.68 66.31 50/69 4-12
62 PLOW 0 646.46 61.1 52/68 9-11
63 Helix 0 633.8 59.03 50/67 13-8
64 Ignite 0 616.72 50.71 56/67 17-15
65 Viva 0 561.06 92.99 51/70 7-11
66 Iowa Wild Rose 0 479.76 57.55 61/71 13-7
67 Versa 0 391.03 59.1 64/77 9-18
68 Rush Hour 0 322.21 79.94 64/80 6-12
69 Seven Devils 0 300.21 114.33 61/80 3-11
70 Autonomous 0 295.43 68.03 65/79 7-12
71 Lady Forward 0 257.2 68.8 66/81 7-14
72 Honey Pot 0 252 74.02 66/79 0-14
73 Cold Cuts 0 236.9 57.05 67/79 8-19
74 Ultraviolet 0 228.26 99.88 65/81 3-11
75 Tempo 0 214.52 104.68 65/81 2-13
76 Sureshot 0 181.56 64.36 69/81 6-12
77 MystiKuE 0 181.29 66.83 67/81 7-15
78 HOPE 0 171.34 77.98 67/81 3-22
79 Suffrage 0 149.01 98.58 65/82 6-12
80 Roc Paper Scissors 0 -47.02 114.46 69/83 2-11
81 DINO 0 -174.55 97.49 77/83 1-26
82 Pickup Lines 0 -242.54 152.97 75/83 3-15
83 The Matriarchy 0 -365.15 116.08 80/83 1-10

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)