Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2018-19 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
2 Great Lakes 1.96 Nemesis 98.30%,   Rival 97.60%,  
1 Mid-Atlantic 1.37 Scandal 100.00%,   Grit 37.20%,  
2 North Central 1.59 Pop 74.10%,   Heist 65.40%,   Wicked 19.40%,  
2 Northeast 2.02 Brute Squad 100.00%,   6ixers 99.90%,   Siege 2.00%,   BENT 0.10%,  
3 Northwest 2.77 Seattle Riot 100.00%,   Traffic 96.20%,   Schwa 58.70%,   Underground 21.60%,  
1 South Central 1.45 Molly Brown 100.00%,   Showdown 44.90%,  
2 Southeast 1.94 Phoenix 98.90%,   Ozone 95.00%,  
3 Southwest 2.91 Fury 100.00%,   Nightlock 100.00%,   Wildfire 90.70%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region GL MA NC NE NW SC SE SW
Initial 1.959 1.372 1.589 2.020 2.765 1.449 1.939 2.907
Autos (all @ 1) 0.959 0.372 0.589 1.020 1.765 0.449 0.939 1.907
Southwest (@ 2) 0.959 0.372 0.589 1.020 1.765 0.449 0.939 0.907
Northwest (@ 2) 0.959 0.372 0.589 1.020 0.765 0.449 0.939 0.907
Northeast (@ 2) 0.959 0.372 0.589 0.020 0.765 0.449 0.939 0.907
Great Lakes (@ 2) -0.041 0.372 0.589 0.020 0.765 0.449 0.939 0.907
Southeast (@ 2) -0.041 0.372 0.589 0.020 0.765 0.449 -0.061 0.907
Southwest (@ 3) -0.041 0.372 0.589 0.020 0.765 0.449 -0.061 -0.093
Northwest (@ 3) -0.041 0.372 0.589 0.020 -0.235 0.449 -0.061 -0.093
North Central (@ 2) -0.041 0.372 -0.411 0.020 -0.235 0.449 -0.061 -0.093
Total 2 1 2 2 3 1 2 3

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 Brute Squad 1 2542.12 119.43 1/5 16-0
2 Fury 1 2387.61 62.98 1/5 17-3
3 Molly Brown 1 2338.11 44.09 1/5 15-4
4 Seattle Riot 1 2297.79 63.26 1/7 16-3
5 Scandal 1 2171.38 59.17 2/9 14-5
6 Nightlock 1 1957.34 44.97 5/16 17-10
7 6ixers 0.999 2022.55 81.04 4/17 9-3
8 Phoenix 0.989 1952.42 73.15 4/19 14-2
9 Nemesis 0.983 1917.34 67.5 6/19 9-9
10 Rival 0.976 1928.27 77.21 5/20 9-10
11 Traffic 0.962 1934.52 88.67 5/20 7-6
12 Ozone 0.95 2045.07 147.84 1/21 13-6
13 Wildfire 0.907 1858 60.93 6/21 5-6
14 Pop 0.741 1829.1 78.41 6/22 7-11
15 Heist 0.654 1805.52 90.07 6/24 16-9
16 Schwa 0.587 1789.57 56.55 8/22 10-15
17 Showdown 0.449 1774.98 114.14 6/24 14-9
18 Grit 0.372 1749.8 79.94 8/25 9-9
19 Underground 0.216 1744.59 41.78 12/22 10-14
20 Wicked 0.194 1709.22 79.68 9/24 15-3
21 Siege 0.02 1654.65 59.54 12/26 11-11
22 BENT 0.001 1616.45 45.81 15/24 12-12
23 Colorado Small Batch 0 1517.33 55.31 18/28 10-7
24 LOL 0 1487.92 57.04 21/29 5-15
25 Virginia Rebellion 0 1398.49 58.62 22/32 16-3
26 Elevate 0 1388.04 63.69 21/30 16-10
27 Tabby Rosa 0 1372.6 68.01 22/32 14-5
28 Sneaky House Hippos 0 1299.39 87.15 21/38 7-8
29 Rampage 0 1277.82 95.19 21/39 7-6
30 Indy Rogue 0 1274.32 59.43 25/35 12-7
31 FAB 0 1194.92 72.86 24/41 7-12
32 Steel 0 1103.58 87.04 27/44 15-2
33 Hot Metal 0 1082.58 53.68 29/42 8-11
34 Seattle Soul 0 1073.05 77.96 27/43 8-5
35 Dish 0 1064.81 60.07 29/42 18-3
36 Jackwagon 0 1054.04 46.51 29/41 11-7
37 Green Means Go 0 998.22 68.73 30/46 9-14
38 Crackle 0 963.46 56.56 31/47 9-7
39 Pine Baroness 0 951.8 87.25 30/50 14-4
40 Trainwreck 0 903.94 55.11 34/47 6-6
41 Fiasco 0 885.31 95.13 31/53 7-6
42 Frolic 0 874.87 127.58 30/56 11-2
43 Portland Ivy 0 869.03 89.59 32/56 5-7
44 Outbreak 0 831.51 84.75 33/56 10-9
45 Deadly Viper Assassination Squad 0 819.8 61.56 35/52 5-7
46 Taco Truck 0 785.93 85.32 33/56 4-8
47 Vice 0 693.95 88.01 38/60 14-3
48 Cold Cuts 0 686.62 51.44 42/57 10-10
49 Backhanded 0 662.3 61.45 43/58 6-13
50 Venom 0 649.62 78.99 42/62 5-7
51 Helix 0 639.39 63.39 44/61 10-9
52 Sureshot 0 637.42 38.73 45/58 12-9
53 Stellar 0 633.26 78.49 43/60 6-7
54 Queen Cake 0 607.6 68.16 42/59 6-11
55 Brooklyn Book Club 0 591.62 84.26 41/62 7-13
56 Inferno 0 570.6 106.78 42/64 6-5
57 Maeve 0 565.72 95.54 41/65 4-6
58 Eliza Furnace 0 463.98 65.53 49/64 3-10
59 Iowa Wild Rose 0 393.92 69.17 53/65 5-11
60 Broad City 0 373.42 62.62 55/65 8-7
61 Viva 0 350.95 102.29 51/67 2-9
62 Suffrage 0 314.14 75.51 56/67 7-8
63 Notorious C.L.E. 0 294 69.51 57/67 4-8
64 Lady Forward 0 229.15 65.4 58/68 5-13
65 MystiKuE 0 181.1 96.2 57/68 4-11
66 Honey Pot 0 144.08 97.87 58/68 2-16
67 Autonomous 0 53.9 92.67 61/68 2-13
68 Boomslang 0 -115.23 71 65/68 2-8

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)