Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2018-19 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
2 Great Lakes 1.56 Rival 100.00%,   Nemesis 56.30%,  
1 Mid-Atlantic 1.01 Scandal 100.00%,   Grit 1.40%,  
1 North Central 0.1 Pop 9.90%,  
4 Northeast 3.84 6ixers 100.00%,   Brute Squad 100.00%,   Siege 99.60%,   Iris 50.20%,   BENT 34.20%,  
3 Northwest 3.15 Schwa 100.00%,   Seattle Riot 100.00%,   Traffic 97.30%,   Underground 15.80%,   Sneaky House Hippos 1.70%,  
2 South Central 1.4 Molly Brown 99.90%,   Showdown 39.90%,  
2 Southeast 2.02 Phoenix 100.00%,   Ozone 99.50%,   Steel 1.80%,   Tabby Rosa 0.70%,  
3 Southwest 2.92 Fury 100.00%,   Nightlock 99.70%,   Wildfire 92.10%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region AC GL ME NE NC NW OV SC SE SW
Initial 1.563 1.014 0.099 3.840 3.148 1.398 2.020 2.918
Autos (all @ 1) 0.563 0.014 -0.901 2.840 2.148 0.398 1.020 1.918
Northeast (@ 2) 0.563 0.014 -0.901 1.840 2.148 0.398 1.020 1.918
Northwest (@ 2) 0.563 0.014 -0.901 1.840 1.148 0.398 1.020 1.918
Southwest (@ 2) 0.563 0.014 -0.901 1.840 1.148 0.398 1.020 0.918
Northeast (@ 3) 0.563 0.014 -0.901 0.840 1.148 0.398 1.020 0.918
Northwest (@ 3) 0.563 0.014 -0.901 0.840 0.148 0.398 1.020 0.918
Southeast (@ 2) 0.563 0.014 -0.901 0.840 0.148 0.398 0.020 0.918
Southwest (@ 3) 0.563 0.014 -0.901 0.840 0.148 0.398 0.020 -0.082
Northeast (@ 4) 0.563 0.014 -0.901 -0.160 0.148 0.398 0.020 -0.082
Great Lakes (@ 2) -0.437 0.014 -0.901 -0.160 0.148 0.398 0.020 -0.082
South Central (@ 2) -0.437 0.014 -0.901 -0.160 0.148 -0.602 0.020 -0.082
Total 2 1 1 4 3 2 2 3

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 Seattle Riot 1 2407.14 88.64 1/7 12-1
2 Fury 1 2310.17 59.38 1/6 10-3
3 6ixers 1 2256.27 85.59 1/9 5-1
4 Scandal 1 2250.82 55.75 1/8 9-3
5 Brute Squad 1 2183 87.01 1/12 9-0
6 Phoenix 1 2110.78 82.43 2/13 10-3
7 Schwa 1 2058.97 43.22 5/12 13-6
8 Rival 1 1958.79 47.99 6/14 15-5
9 Molly Brown 0.999 2187.62 125.99 1/18 15-4
10 Nightlock 0.997 1913.83 57.88 7/17 10-10
11 Siege 0.996 1964.28 72.48 5/17 17-2
12 Ozone 0.995 1916.3 63.82 6/18 6-7
13 Traffic 0.973 1886.16 67.57 7/20 10-3
14 Wildfire 0.921 1875.04 80.92 6/21 7-5
15 Nemesis 0.563 1769.38 58.86 9/23 8-11
16 Iris 0.502 1758.96 65.57 10/23 8-2
17 Showdown 0.399 1740.71 64.53 9/24 4-10
18 BENT 0.342 1732.54 60.25 10/23 13-7
19 Underground 0.158 1700.44 56.61 12/24 12-9
20 Pop 0.099 1650.53 85.93 12/30 10-7
21 Steel 0.018 1505.32 122.96 14/43 10-0
22 Sneaky House Hippos 0.017 1587.91 77.45 13/34 3-5
23 Grit 0.014 1581.67 79.38 15/33 4-8
24 Tabby Rosa 0.007 1551.71 82.48 15/35 10-4
25 Virginia Rebellion 0 1478.34 82.98 17/39 21-6
26 Wicked 0 1461.02 68.42 19/40 8-10
27 Elevate 0 1445.48 67.07 18/37 7-12
28 Seattle Soul 0 1439.57 85.45 18/41 14-3
29 Colorado Small Batch 0 1407.74 67.96 19/40 6-14
30 PDXtra 0 1396.04 71.78 21/43 4-2
31 Heist 0 1385.09 56.73 23/39 3-14
32 Salty 0 1373.38 71.03 22/44 8-6
33 Fusion 0 1319.56 86.49 20/49 10-0
34 FAB 0 1221.53 89.69 25/53 9-10
35 Rampage 0 1221.15 141.11 18/58 3-3
36 Frolic 0 1218.46 147.87 18/64 9-5
37 Stella 0 1213.21 74.75 25/55 3-7
38 Pine Baroness 0 1210.45 74.33 25/51 10-9
39 Vice 0 1208.72 76.32 26/50 14-5
40 Vintage 0 1192.16 95.06 26/53 3-4
41 Korra 0 1168.84 115.31 25/64 4-3
42 Tempest 0 1157.98 93.11 26/54 3-4
43 Crush City 0 1147.14 138.4 21/59 8-2
44 Brooklyn Book Club 0 1139.17 60.96 32/50 15-6
45 Portland Ivy 0 1064.36 77.8 33/60 5-5
46 Taco Truck 0 1044.85 56.87 36/59 11-7
47 Indy Rogue 0 1042.13 72.18 34/59 13-5
48 Rebel Rebel 0 1013.28 135.25 24/69 12-3
49 Venus 0 1009.57 85.23 31/61 3-8
50 Dish 0 957.57 77.07 36/66 5-13
51 Fiasco 0 919.27 158.53 29/74 3-3
52 TOX6ix 0 917.08 102.08 37/72 5-5
53 Queen Cake 0 909.38 50.48 45/64 6-6
54 Stellar 0 877.39 83.03 42/70 13-5
55 Trash. 0 877.2 86.94 39/70 2-4
56 Agency 0 857.35 79.01 42/71 13-7
57 Venom 0 842.45 94.02 42/73 8-4
58 Outbreak 0 840.12 56.89 46/69 7-9
59 Crackle 0 798.19 68.72 47/71 8-10
60 Notorious C.L.E. 0 763.78 83.36 43/75 5-6
61 Huntsville Laika 0 762.12 41.37 52/70 4-7
62 Broad City 0 741.7 99.18 44/78 4-9
63 Eliza Furnace 0 737.34 56.13 53/72 8-6
64 Hot Metal 0 735.71 67.27 48/74 5-19
65 Jackwagon 0 721.47 101.09 45/78 5-8
66 Seven Devils 0 717.9 101.25 47/80 3-4
67 Red Hot Ultimate 0 712.16 74.8 51/75 1-5
68 Helix 0 666.54 90.02 51/78 7-5
69 Viva 0 618.08 139.58 48/85 5-4
70 Boston 0 593.14 157.94 47/87 3-2
71 PLOW 0 574.97 85.83 59/84 6-5
72 Koi 0 567.5 101.25 55/85 2-5
73 Ignite 0 552.05 64.39 62/79 10-9
74 Throwback 0 547.33 107.85 52/82 2-4
75 Iowa Wild Rose 0 486.48 59.15 65/81 12-5
76 BUDA U20G 0 432.16 77.45 67/86 2-2
77 Autonomous 0 390.78 69.4 69/86 6-5
78 Versa 0 352.6 58.25 72/86 5-9
79 Tempo 0 339.39 116.83 68/90 2-9
80 cATLanta 0 312.84 151.75 58/92 0-6
81 Valley Ultimate U20 Girls 0 247.02 97.51 72/91 1-3
82 Honey Pot 0 245.06 94.6 72/92 0-13
83 MystiKuE 0 239.48 66.11 76/89 6-11
84 Cold Cuts 0 228.25 52.43 77/89 6-15
85 Sureshot 0 191.62 69.48 76/90 4-6
86 Inferno 0 145.3 110.44 73/94 4-6
87 Suffrage 0 60.59 95.88 79/93 4-9
88 HOPE 0 47.37 92.62 77/93 2-9
89 Lady Forward 0 13.6 92.69 80/95 2-9
90 Oligarchy 0 -67.38 213.68 75/97 1-5
91 Roc Paper Scissors 0 -195.8 111.17 82/97 2-9
92 Maeve 0 -224.48 183 79/97 0-10
93 Rush Hour 0 -272.74 285.89 74/97 1-4
94 The Matriarchy 0 -314.8 115.4 88/97 1-8
95 DINO 0 -426.25 151.51 89/97 1-14
96 Superior 0 -439.8 158.96 85/97 0-5
97 Pickup Lines 0 -513.05 212.12 84/97 2-11

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)