Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2017 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
1 Great Lakes 1.65 Rival 83.30%,   Nemesis 81.20%,  
1 Mid-Atlantic 1 Scandal 100.00%,  
2 North Central 1.98 Heist 99.00%,   Pop 98.80%,  
2 Northeast 2 Brute Squad 100.00%,   6ixers 95.80%,   Siege 4.40%,   BENT 0.20%,  
4 Northwest 3.86 Traffic 100.00%,   Seattle Riot 100.00%,   Underground 99.90%,   Schwa 86.10%,  
2 South Central 1.86 Molly Brown 100.00%,   Showdown 86.20%,  
1 Southeast 0.99 Ozone 90.80%,   Phoenix 8.10%,  
3 Southwest 2.66 Fury 100.00%,   Nightlock 97.20%,   LOL 48.50%,   Wildfire 20.50%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region GL MA NC NE NW SC SE SW
Initial 1.645 1.000 1.978 2.004 3.860 1.862 0.989 2.662
Autos (all @ 1) 0.645 0.000 0.978 1.004 2.860 0.862 -0.011 1.662
Northwest (@ 2) 0.645 0.000 0.978 1.004 1.860 0.862 -0.011 1.662
Northwest (@ 3) 0.645 0.000 0.978 1.004 0.860 0.862 -0.011 1.662
Southwest (@ 2) 0.645 0.000 0.978 1.004 0.860 0.862 -0.011 0.662
Northeast (@ 2) 0.645 0.000 0.978 0.004 0.860 0.862 -0.011 0.662
North Central (@ 2) 0.645 0.000 -0.022 0.004 0.860 0.862 -0.011 0.662
South Central (@ 2) 0.645 0.000 -0.022 0.004 0.860 -0.138 -0.011 0.662
Northwest (@ 4) 0.645 0.000 -0.022 0.004 -0.140 -0.138 -0.011 0.662
Southwest (@ 3) 0.645 0.000 -0.022 0.004 -0.140 -0.138 -0.011 -0.338
Total 1 1 2 2 4 2 1 3

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 Seattle Riot 1 2295.51 49.07 1/4 23-4
2 Brute Squad 1 2284.13 61.43 1/5 16-3
3 Fury 1 2222.17 47.93 1/5 13-6
4 Molly Brown 1 2219.89 55.84 1/5 15-4
5 Scandal 1 2023.53 55.99 3/7 19-7
6 Traffic 1 1837.37 50.91 5/16 5-8
7 Underground 0.999 1780.4 42.34 6/17 16-11
8 Heist 0.99 1757.7 40.03 6/17 12-13
9 Pop 0.988 1812.75 75.32 5/19 12-7
10 Nightlock 0.972 1748.24 56.39 5/20 12-15
11 6ixers 0.958 1758.84 72.23 5/19 11-3
12 Ozone 0.908 1760.67 100.07 5/21 12-8
13 Showdown 0.862 1695.19 56.3 5/19 9-11
14 Schwa 0.861 1716.38 74.97 6/20 10-10
15 Rival 0.833 1685.69 51.34 7/21 11-7
16 Nemesis 0.812 1710.03 82.04 5/21 15-6
17 LOL 0.485 1638.45 71.35 5/21 7-4
18 Wildfire 0.205 1586.29 72.09 8/22 8-11
19 Phoenix 0.081 1537.99 75.62 10/23 14-5
20 Siege 0.044 1520.43 74.39 8/23 13-6
21 BENT 0.002 1464.35 55.42 13/23 7-12
22 Wicked 0 1269.8 70.2 20/32 13-5
23 Hot Metal 0 1254.09 51.88 21/31 11-9
24 Green 0 1223.78 107.62 18/35 13-0
25 FAB 0 1218.31 98.15 19/37 13-4
26 Grit 0 1190.95 43.69 22/32 11-10
27 Elevate 0 1173.43 60.32 21/35 16-5
28 Outbreak 0 1159.59 79.07 21/37 13-6
29 Tabby Rosa 0 1144.19 74.48 22/38 16-4
30 Notorious C.L.E. 0 1122.02 64.93 22/37 8-12
31 Viva 0 1067.97 46.86 24/37 4-14
32 Portland Ivy 0 992.92 100.37 23/46 9-5
33 Dish 0 960.47 102.56 22/45 15-4
34 Steel 0 949.06 63.62 27/43 16-11
35 Indy Rogue 0 946.18 91.84 25/44 14-7
36 Colorado Small Batch 0 892.4 81.38 25/49 8-9
37 Phoenix Uprising 0 878.12 73.57 30/47 4-8
38 Virginia Rebellion 0 872.45 46.31 32/43 8-12
39 Jackwagon 0 798.85 99.98 29/53 6-7
40 Maeve 0 784.19 108.32 29/52 6-9
41 Backhanded 0 766.31 71.34 33/51 5-14
42 fiasco 0 759.6 64 34/50 13-7
43 Deadly Viper Assassination Squad 0 734.12 78.82 33/53 7-10
44 Queen Cake 0 708.53 82.17 34/54 7-7
45 Sureshot 0 705.87 83.07 34/53 14-8
46 Vice 0 649.89 54.45 39/55 10-8
47 Helix 0 648.09 73.46 35/53 14-7
48 Pine Baroness 0 630.66 60.71 39/54 10-11
49 Encore 0 550.03 96.67 37/60 3-10
50 Brooklyn Book Club 0 532.12 63.63 43/58 13-6
51 Trainwreck 0 515.67 75.59 41/59 3-8
52 Sparks 0 512.17 65.02 43/58 9-5
53 Jinx 0 499.73 82.27 41/62 8-2
54 Monsoon Ultimate 0 402.99 83.66 46/64 5-6
55 Venom 0 393.93 122.03 42/67 2-10
56 Inferno 0 359.87 58.13 49/65 5-10
57 Suffrage 0 340.28 69.38 49/66 12-8
58 Snap 0 313.4 75.47 48/67 7-6
59 Boomslang 0 260.99 74.66 47/68 7-8
60 Honey Pot 0 236.95 67.08 52/67 5-16
61 Hoax 0 232.48 63.39 52/67 5-15
62 Rogue 0 217.39 90.74 52/68 2-10
63 Broad City 0 208.73 51.15 54/68 10-11
64 Independence 0 187.81 67.55 54/68 4-9
65 Crackle 0 170.86 61.34 55/68 7-6
66 MystiKuE 0 120.95 89.4 55/69 5-8
67 Baywatch 0 -48.39 126.77 56/73 2-11
68 Salt City Spirit 0 -57.28 95.56 61/71 5-9
69 Lockdown 0 -72.76 68.76 65/71 4-14
70 HOPE 0 -295.74 65.56 67/73 1-9
71 Dinosaur 0 -324.39 141.27 66/73 0-12
72 Frenzy 0 -413.7 83.15 69/73 3-16
73 Autonomous 0 -586.46 157.16 69/73 1-13

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)