College Men's Probabilistic Bid Allocation
2025-26 Season

Overall Bid Allocation | Step-by-Step Breakdown | Team Statistics | Probabilistic FAQ

Overall Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
1 Atlantic Coast 1.15 North Carolina 100.00%,   North Carolina State 14.60%,   Georgetown 0.50%,   North Carolina-Wilmington 0.20%,  
1 Great Lakes 0.06 Michigan 5.80%,   Chicago 0.10%,   Illinois 0.10%,  
1 Metro East 0.41 Ottawa 40.80%,  
3 New England 2.91 Brown 98.70%,   Massachusetts 95.00%,   Vermont 82.30%,   McGill 12.20%,   Northeastern 2.60%,  
2 North Central 1.87 Carleton College 100.00%,   Wisconsin 83.20%,   Minnesota 3.70%,  
6 Northwest 6.29 Oregon 100.00%,   Victoria 99.80%,   Oregon State 99.80%,   Western Washington 89.60%,   British Columbia 80.30%,   Washington 77.90%,   Utah 42.10%,   Utah Valley 30.60%,   Brigham Young 7.80%,   British Columbia [B] 1.20%,  
1 Ohio Valley 1.71 Pittsburgh 94.20%,   Penn State 76.30%,   Ohio State 0.60%,  
1 South Central 1.79 Colorado 100.00%,   Texas 60.70%,   Colorado State 18.50%,  
1 Southeast 0.97 Georgia Tech 93.90%,   Tulane 2.80%,  
3 Southwest 2.84 California-Santa Cruz 100.00%,   Cal Poly-SLO 100.00%,   UCLA 51.90%,   California 29.20%,   Stanford 2.40%,   California-San Diego 0.40%,   Arizona State 0.20%,  

Step-by-Step Breakdown

Region AC GL ME NE NC NW OV SC SE SW
Initial 1.153 0.060 0.408 2.908 1.869 6.291 1.711 1.792 0.967 2.841
Autos (all @ 1) 0.153 -0.940 -0.592 1.908 0.869 5.291 0.711 0.792 -0.033 1.841
Northwest (@ 2) 0.153 -0.940 -0.592 1.908 0.869 4.291 0.711 0.792 -0.033 1.841
Northwest (@ 3) 0.153 -0.940 -0.592 1.908 0.869 3.291 0.711 0.792 -0.033 1.841
Northwest (@ 4) 0.153 -0.940 -0.592 1.908 0.869 2.291 0.711 0.792 -0.033 1.841
Northwest (@ 5) 0.153 -0.940 -0.592 1.908 0.869 1.291 0.711 0.792 -0.033 1.841
New England (@ 2) 0.153 -0.940 -0.592 0.908 0.869 1.291 0.711 0.792 -0.033 1.841
Southwest (@ 2) 0.153 -0.940 -0.592 0.908 0.869 1.291 0.711 0.792 -0.033 0.841
Northwest (@ 6) 0.153 -0.940 -0.592 0.908 0.869 0.291 0.711 0.792 -0.033 0.841
New England (@ 3) 0.153 -0.940 -0.592 -0.092 0.869 0.291 0.711 0.792 -0.033 0.841
North Central (@ 2) 0.153 -0.940 -0.592 -0.092 -0.131 0.291 0.711 0.792 -0.033 0.841
Southwest (@ 3) 0.153 -0.940 -0.592 -0.092 -0.131 0.291 0.711 0.792 -0.033 -0.159
Total 1 1 1 3 2 6 1 1 1 3

Team Statistics (Sorted by bid fraction)

Rank Team Bid Fraction Rating Uncertainty High Sim Low Sim Record
1 Oregon 1 2377.85 78.36 1 4 17-2
2 Colorado 1 2310.76 59.62 1 7 13-1
3 Carleton College 1 2244.75 50.05 1 7 14-1
4 Cal Poly-SLO 1 2139.94 61.88 1 16 14-6
5 California-Santa Cruz 1 2095.12 53.08 2 18 14-6
6 North Carolina 1 2094.02 62.15 2 20 13-3
7 Oregon State 0.998 2046.17 64.98 3 21 12-6
8 Victoria 0.998 2044.91 62.49 3 22 16-5
9 Brown 0.987 1997.92 64.08 3 28 9-6
10 Massachusetts 0.95 1968.53 72.34 4 30 10-5
11 Pittsburgh 0.942 1984.24 84.43 2 33 9-6
12 Georgia Tech 0.939 1958.37 78.28 3 32 9-5
13 Western Washington 0.896 2017.42 130.03 1 39 9-4
14 Wisconsin 0.832 1930.61 85.46 3 37 13-2
15 Vermont 0.823 1924.79 83.02 4 38 10-5
16 British Columbia 0.803 1909.82 68.51 4 38 8-4
17 Washington 0.779 1898.51 67.40 7 35 10-11
18 Penn State 0.763 1908.33 87.26 3 38 10-5
19 Texas 0.607 1861.24 55.09 8 38 8-7
20 UCLA 0.519 1853.75 66.41 7 37 16-9
21 Utah 0.421 1840.44 54.65 9 39 11-10
22 Ottawa 0.408 1832.54 69.32 7 44 6-1
23 Utah Valley 0.306 1806.29 88.72 5 51 7-7
24 California 0.292 1811.52 77.15 6 45 9-11
25 Colorado State 0.185 1758.49 110.51 6 78 3-4
26 North Carolina State 0.146 1744.04 90.81 11 62 5-2
27 McGill 0.122 1763.20 73.44 8 50 10-5
28 Brigham Young 0.078 1756.60 66.64 13 48 7-11
29 Michigan 0.058 1720.89 79.94 14 58 6-9
30 Minnesota 0.037 1737.21 60.44 14 53 8-5
31 Tulane 0.028 1659.41 101.47 11 89 3-4
32 Northeastern 0.026 1684.77 86.10 13 69 5-8
33 Stanford 0.024 1688.69 82.21 10 68 5-9
34 British Columbia [B] 0.012 1396.38 207.22 4 190 6-1
35 Ohio State 0.006 1433.93 176.09 12 160 10-3
36 Georgetown 0.005 1665.18 74.76 15 64 11-4
37 California-San Diego 0.004 1643.77 77.00 19 81 10-9
38 North Carolina-Wilmington 0.002 1696.00 51.50 20 49 7-7
39 Arizona State 0.002 1400.20 158.32 19 163 8-4
40 Illinois 0.001 1611.78 79.61 21 68 11-4
41 Chicago 0.001 1605.56 71.25 17 73 10-5
42 Middlebury 0 1762.54 85.70 8 58 12-2
43 Lewis & Clark 0 1711.16 82.40 13 66 10-2
44 Davenport 0 1677.08 91.05 12 73 4-3
45 Carleton College-CHOP 0 1624.92 82.85 14 74 9-2
46 Utah State 0 1609.76 53.40 23 73 9-5
47 Virginia 0 1608.55 69.32 22 72 10-11
48 Tennessee 0 1607.99 71.71 24 70 6-9
49 California-Santa Barbara 0 1587.24 69.73 22 69 3-12
50 Tufts 0 1582.19 72.71 21 73 7-7
51 Purdue 0 1573.80 60.64 24 71 8-7
52 Maryland 0 1570.26 70.91 24 77 7-8
53 Virginia Tech 0 1564.23 76.52 22 79 8-7
54 Ave Maria 0 1498.58 123.78 22 127 3-5
55 St Olaf 0 1484.69 91.27 32 94 10-2
56 Oklahoma Christian 0 1477.59 65.28 36 87 8-6
57 Elon 0 1475.07 44.03 43 79 6-3
58 Emory 0 1474.09 66.60 29 95 9-6
59 Bowdoin 0 1467.34 106.85 22 111 5-1
60 Franciscan 0 1441.88 125.37 25 133 6-0
61 Williams 0 1433.84 112.91 22 114 10-2
62 Cincinnati 0 1422.29 60.29 41 99 8-7
63 Claremont 0 1414.26 79.25 38 112 13-6
64 Johns Hopkins 0 1412.48 68.77 38 101 13-0
65 Macalester 0 1389.04 62.60 45 108 7-4
66 Washington University 0 1388.76 70.62 39 107 9-6
67 Colorado Mines 0 1387.59 110.15 29 131 11-7
68 Whitman 0 1384.94 123.71 28 136 4-2
69 William & Mary 0 1376.08 91.56 30 126 3-3
70 Cornell 0 1370.87 85.52 40 130 3-5
71 Georgia 0 1367.58 74.83 41 115 4-11
72 Colorado College 0 1361.48 80.40 42 117 7-6
73 Air Force 0 1356.41 126.04 28 140 3-0
74 Amherst 0 1355.06 86.40 41 140 3-0
75 Tennessee-Chattanooga 0 1344.78 81.38 37 125 8-4
76 Yale 0 1343.06 81.53 46 121 7-7
77 Santa Clara 0 1336.36 66.25 47 113 5-7
78 Florida 0 1328.81 53.80 54 113 6-9
79 Southern Illinois-Edwardsville 0 1327.65 115.52 28 138 11-3
80 Kenyon 0 1323.54 122.06 30 154 5-1
81 Colorado [B] 0 1323.19 132.10 36 152 9-4
82 California-Irvine 0 1320.71 72.01 48 124 14-9
83 Drexel 0 1310.43 60.07 54 123 5-2
84 Cal Poly-SLO [B] 0 1297.79 87.61 50 131 11-7
85 Massachusetts [B] 0 1293.96 128.97 27 154 4-2
86 Iowa 0 1292.09 61.98 51 128 3-4
87 Grand Canyon 0 1284.86 112.11 38 150 13-6
88 Southern California 0 1276.07 61.81 55 122 9-8
89 Vermont [B] 0 1270.17 139.78 29 168 3-3
90 Alabama 0 1262.41 57.91 58 123 7-5
91 North Carolina-Charlotte 0 1257.85 52.43 61 130 9-13
92 Delaware 0 1256.85 73.22 59 136 9-3
93 SUNY-Binghamton 0 1256.66 56.25 64 124 5-1
94 Denver 0 1251.64 79.54 46 139 13-6
95 SUNY-Buffalo 0 1251.50 90.78 48 141 11-1
96 North Carolina-Asheville 0 1237.65 103.35 53 157 5-1
97 Alabama-Huntsville 0 1231.36 41.09 71 118 4-10
98 Montana State 0 1230.88 135.33 32 171 2-4
99 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0 1222.60 170.03 28 193 5-2
100 Syracuse 0 1213.94 89.83 51 157 3-4
101 San Diego State 0 1210.41 76.04 65 144 5-7
102 Connecticut 0 1205.81 10.59 88 111 2-1
103 Kansas 0 1199.70 173.50 39 193 4-3
104 Notre Dame 0 1172.63 70.64 65 147 1-4
105 Brigham Young [B] 0 1168.98 147.73 36 177 11-6
106 Richmond 0 1167.99 80.11 70 155 4-1
107 Portland 0 1153.96 85.21 64 166 13-7
108 Truman State 0 1147.12 115.67 55 188 4-3
109 Carnegie Mellon 0 1144.95 92.54 65 175 1-5
110 Florida State 0 1140.36 76.20 68 158 8-8
111 Temple 0 1140.35 88.52 66 167 1-4
112 LSU 0 1138.31 97.57 62 178 4-2
113 West Chester 0 1129.51 139.67 44 195 4-2
114 Berry 0 1116.41 45.24 86 147 5-9
115 Texas A&M 0 1115.44 71.76 78 157 5-9
116 Indiana 0 1110.64 55.96 78 148 6-7
117 Iowa State 0 1110.42 101.01 54 169 3-4
118 Mississippi State 0 1105.79 90.31 72 168 8-5
119 Case Western Reserve 0 1103.61 85.10 74 170 1-5
120 Appalachian State 0 1103.13 131.22 45 192 1-4
121 James Madison 0 1101.83 77.15 74 164 4-8
122 North Carolina [B] 0 1100.43 73.78 75 162 6-3
123 Duke 0 1095.31 87.78 71 177 5-3
124 Dartmouth 0 1076.08 75.20 81 172 1-3
125 UCLA [B] 0 1073.55 58.79 92 163 7-6
126 Auburn 0 1071.33 51.32 88 165 5-10
127 Puget Sound 0 1065.15 72.93 91 170 5-7
128 Lehigh 0 1045.09 71.00 95 169 3-3
129 Liberty 0 1036.79 123.03 59 201 4-2
130 Minnesota-Duluth 0 1027.10 94.76 81 182 5-6
131 RIT 0 1025.95 129.03 66 193 3-3
132 Clemson 0 1025.38 90.77 79 183 10-3
133 San Jose State 0 1024.50 71.42 89 174 10-9
134 George Washington 0 1024.48 118.60 59 192 5-2
135 Brandeis 0 1022.74 67.82 95 173 6-3
136 Rochester 0 1020.06 84.72 77 183 2-1
137 Michigan Tech 0 1012.20 167.19 42 214 4-4
138 East Carolina 0 1011.99 80.99 84 180 4-8
139 Oregon State [B] 0 1010.92 84.72 90 193 10-9
140 Minnesota [B] 0 1008.27 135.42 57 203 6-4
141 Union (Tennessee) 0 1002.01 81.21 85 182 3-3
142 Pennsylvania 0 996.36 95.06 85 195 3-2
143 Arkansas 0 981.91 116.74 67 194 3-4
144 Colby 0 980.20 52.94 114 171 7-6
145 Northwestern 0 980.04 62.85 97 176 5-9
146 MIT 0 978.65 88.92 81 190 3-4
147 Cal Poly-Pomona 0 977.77 74.86 99 187 8-9
148 Illinois [B] 0 972.14 123.97 68 202 4-3
149 Davidson 0 965.82 99.65 76 197 3-3
150 Harvard 0 961.73 106.20 72 194 3-1
151 Missouri 0 959.72 121.01 78 206 3-3
152 Brown [B] 0 950.27 89.15 84 192 1-2
153 Kentucky 0 940.10 148.50 63 216 6-0
154 Oberlin 0 935.99 85.02 98 198 3-2
155 Georgia State 0 913.83 116.58 82 204 7-0
156 NYU 0 911.41 120.90 87 212 3-2
157 Wesleyan 0 911.39 96.85 107 201 2-1
158 Rhode Island 0 897.94 81.51 114 202 5-1
159 Pittsburgh [B] 0 892.76 84.05 106 193 4-2
160 California-Santa Cruz [B] 0 889.59 56.91 123 185 10-9
161 Princeton 0 885.55 114.46 93 202 5-1
162 Wisconsin-Eau Claire 0 883.14 110.07 99 207 0-5
163 Boston University 0 874.37 91.48 104 200 2-4
164 Skidmore 0 869.14 74.67 119 197 3-4
165 Vanderbilt 0 865.59 90.03 120 206 5-8
166 Nebraska 0 834.28 89.35 119 201 3-4
167 Ohio 0 833.67 85.78 117 201 8-4
168 Xavier 0 832.81 142.22 85 221 6-2
169 South Carolina 0 832.33 110.78 108 213 1-11
170 California [B] 0 827.41 57.19 136 195 10-10
171 Cedarville 0 821.27 99.62 113 219 4-3
172 South Florida 0 815.73 78.31 126 203 3-11
173 Grinnell 0 812.00 108.45 104 214 3-5
174 Haverford 0 807.65 81.48 128 203 1-2
175 Miami (Ohio) 0 806.88 69.73 139 209 15-5
176 Chico State 0 795.58 62.23 138 204 12-7
177 Gonzaga 0 789.31 93.01 125 214 6-7
178 West Virginia 0 784.38 111.42 109 221 5-6
179 Miami (Florida) 0 768.77 66.41 143 206 9-3
180 Washington [B] 0 757.70 95.17 131 223 6-7
181 Baylor 0 757.14 80.69 127 216 8-0
182 Georgia Tech [B] 0 749.32 77.57 140 208 3-2
183 California-Davis 0 740.54 73.41 142 208 4-8
184 Loyola Marymount 0 730.90 117.26 124 233 3-4
185 North Carolina State [B] 0 730.60 73.94 145 210 1-5
186 Northern Iowa 0 726.36 70.06 142 205 7-0
187 Rowan 0 714.87 95.40 141 223 8-5
188 California-Santa Barbara [B] 0 713.83 73.68 148 219 6-7
189 George Mason 0 701.84 90.23 136 226 1-4
190 Texas-San Antonio 0 680.80 65.13 157 222 3-4
191 Arizona 0 673.06 75.15 156 221 2-4
192 Cal Poly-Humboldt 0 666.49 58.31 166 212 6-11
193 Bates 0 657.85 81.08 146 224 3-8
194 Carleton College [C] 0 649.82 72.43 161 217 8-2
195 Whitworth 0 644.54 140.26 136 246 9-1
196 Michigan [B] 0 639.61 107.38 120 235 3-4
197 Maryland-Baltimore County 0 638.12 98.72 155 236 2-5
198 Messiah 0 617.50 116.57 137 245 2-4
199 Christopher Newport 0 615.45 68.89 158 220 2-3
200 Northern Arizona 0 601.99 68.95 164 224 3-9
201 Central Florida 0 601.28 81.36 161 233 4-10
202 Swarthmore 0 568.69 117.85 155 241 4-2
203 Texas State 0 566.69 95.28 154 232 3-4
204 Akron 0 547.35 105.51 163 249 4-8
205 Kennesaw State 0 539.43 67.34 182 229 2-4
206 Texas-Dallas 0 522.18 76.12 181 235 6-1
207 Penn State [B] 0 505.11 76.15 183 237 1-5
208 Trinity 0 503.92 29.81 197 221 3-4
209 Virginia Tech [B] 0 498.62 72.64 178 240 2-4
210 Towson 0 494.73 120.06 166 253 2-6
211 Dayton 0 485.70 50.89 192 232 11-7
212 North Texas 0 480.76 52.47 191 230 10-3
213 Dickinson 0 480.15 70.76 184 236 7-4
214 Rice 0 473.51 101.38 178 243 2-5
215 SUNY-Albany 0 456.48 78.31 183 240 0-6
216 Embry-Riddle 0 447.29 71.76 191 237 11-3
217 Stevens Tech 0 435.83 174.20 138 268 3-3
218 California-San Diego [B] 0 424.57 57.10 200 240 5-9
219 Salisbury 0 421.71 82.48 188 245 3-3
220 Tufts [B] 0 417.13 81.90 194 251 2-4
221 Minnesota [C] 0 412.61 81.24 189 252 3-1
222 Rutgers 0 405.87 105.63 181 251 3-9
223 Missouri S&T 0 400.73 164.76 153 266 0-6
224 Sam Houston 0 389.21 41.39 206 238 1-6
225 Colorado State [B] 0 333.84 82.59 196 257 2-4
226 Georgia [B] 0 331.25 133.16 181 264 5-2
227 Wisconsin [B] 0 312.22 112.98 193 264 0-6
228 Wright State 0 311.69 58.73 211 251 6-7
229 Jacksonville State 0 308.15 62.86 204 258 3-16
230 Reed 0 307.58 65.77 205 255 1-5
231 Cal Poly-SLO [C] 0 305.88 160.15 166 270 0-7
232 Willamette 0 305.51 105.07 195 261 3-3
233 Delaware [B] 0 293.62 72.34 208 256 5-6
234 Alabama-Birmingham 0 293.47 74.07 203 256 2-9
235 William & Mary [B] 0 266.51 72.48 211 260 4-8
236 Montana 0 262.02 116.52 199 266 7-3
237 Ave Maria [B] 0 241.53 123.25 194 270 7-7
238 Oklahoma State 0 230.76 118.79 202 267 3-3
239 West Chester [B] 0 225.94 170.27 175 278 2-4
240 Middlebury [B] 0 218.25 165.22 176 274 0-5
241 Mary Washington 0 175.46 77.36 219 265 0-5
242 Harding 0 175.06 61.91 223 263 7-7
243 College of New Jersey 0 171.97 104.40 211 269 0-6
244 Washington State 0 164.62 68.04 219 264 8-7
245 Maryland [B] 0 158.90 77.64 221 269 2-8
246 Nevada-Reno 0 157.08 82.85 217 267 1-10
247 Florida [B] 0 146.71 114.34 213 272 7-6
248 San Diego State [B] 0 131.21 117.08 210 272 0-11
249 James Madison [B] 0 128.68 137.83 194 271 2-3
250 Seattle 0 126.58 166.78 191 280 2-3
251 Texas Tech 0 125.98 124.52 212 276 2-4
252 Kent State 0 117.64 70.00 229 267 2-4
253 Colorado [C] 0 102.32 106.08 216 272 1-5
254 Washington University [B] 0 96.16 104.67 219 272 2-10
255 Cornell [B] 0 95.37 152.37 196 275 1-5
256 Lewis & Clark [B] 0 88.22 101.78 223 276 1-4
257 Purdue [B] 0 77.06 74.06 231 269 6-5
258 Lehigh [B] 0 75.75 98.90 227 273 1-5
259 Florida State [B] 0 49.24 119.72 217 277 5-6
260 Portland State 0 46.65 151.23 212 278 2-9
261 Tarleton State 0 40.20 79.73 234 272 3-4
262 George Washington [B] 0 30.56 142.21 212 280 1-5
263 John Brown 0 -39.32 109.36 235 277 1-5
264 North Florida 0 -57.71 118.18 233 279 5-8
265 Case Western Reserve [B] 0 -61.64 189.04 206 282 2-4
266 Cincinnati [B] 0 -87.49 83.34 246 277 4-8
267 Oklahoma 0 -142.85 97.24 241 279 1-10
268 SUNY-Buffalo [B] 0 -150.80 95.49 252 279 2-4
269 Florida Tech 0 -190.38 140.62 236 281 3-7
270 Carnegie Mellon [B] 0 -232.90 171.12 222 282 0-6
271 Iowa State [B] 0 -293.87 156.28 243 283 0-9
272 Dayton [B] 0 -302.49 139.34 254 281 2-10
273 Texas [B] 0 -329.82 145.59 251 282 1-5
274 Pacific Lutheran 0 -339.56 128.75 255 283 2-9
275 Notre Dame [B] 0 -365.28 170.55 248 282 1-5
276 Colorado Mines [B] 0 -371.55 205.89 221 283 1-11
277 California-Davis [B] 0 -400.45 299.66 204 283 0-6
278 South Florida [B] 0 -415.61 110.25 264 282 0-5
279 Mississippi State [B] 0 -442.00 271.93 229 283 0-6
280 Boise State 0 -492.28 218.77 237 283 1-4
281 Denver [B] 0 -838.44 576.10 90 283 0-5
282 Wisconsin-Milwaukee [B] 0 -876.38 384.42 240 283 0-6
283 Idaho 0 -937.36 240.42 271 283 0-10