Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2024-25 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
1 Atlantic Coast 1.03 North Carolina 100.00%,   Virginia 2.70%,  
1 Great Lakes 0.12 Michigan 12.10%,  
1 Metro East 0.04 Ottawa 4.40%,  
4 New England 4.04 Massachusetts 100.00%,   Northeastern 96.50%,   Brown 75.30%,   Vermont 69.10%,   Tufts 63.20%,  
1 North Central 1.02 Carleton College 100.00%,   Minnesota 1.60%,  
6 Northwest 6.15 Oregon 100.00%,   Brigham Young 100.00%,   Oregon State 99.60%,   Washington 98.50%,   British Columbia 89.60%,   Western Washington 45.50%,   Victoria 36.90%,   Utah Valley 31.10%,   Utah 13.90%,  
1 Ohio Valley 0.5 Penn State 47.40%,   Pittsburgh 2.80%,   Cincinnati 0.10%,  
2 South Central 2.84 Colorado 100.00%,   Washington University 95.30%,   Texas 88.40%,  
1 Southeast 1.28 Georgia 78.90%,   Georgia Tech 47.60%,   Ave Maria 1.40%,  
2 Southwest 2.98 California-Santa Cruz 100.00%,   Cal Poly-SLO 100.00%,   California 98.10%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region AC GL ME NE NC NW OV SC SE SW
Initial 1.027 0.121 0.044 4.041 1.016 6.151 0.503 2.837 1.279 2.981
Autos (all @ 1) 0.027 -0.879 -0.956 3.041 0.016 5.151 -0.497 1.837 0.279 1.981
Northwest (@ 2) 0.027 -0.879 -0.956 3.041 0.016 4.151 -0.497 1.837 0.279 1.981
Northwest (@ 3) 0.027 -0.879 -0.956 3.041 0.016 3.151 -0.497 1.837 0.279 1.981
Northwest (@ 4) 0.027 -0.879 -0.956 3.041 0.016 2.151 -0.497 1.837 0.279 1.981
New England (@ 2) 0.027 -0.879 -0.956 2.041 0.016 2.151 -0.497 1.837 0.279 1.981
Northwest (@ 5) 0.027 -0.879 -0.956 2.041 0.016 1.151 -0.497 1.837 0.279 1.981
New England (@ 3) 0.027 -0.879 -0.956 1.041 0.016 1.151 -0.497 1.837 0.279 1.981
Southwest (@ 2) 0.027 -0.879 -0.956 1.041 0.016 1.151 -0.497 1.837 0.279 0.981
South Central (@ 2) 0.027 -0.879 -0.956 1.041 0.016 1.151 -0.497 0.837 0.279 0.981
Northwest (@ 6) 0.027 -0.879 -0.956 1.041 0.016 0.151 -0.497 0.837 0.279 0.981
New England (@ 4) 0.027 -0.879 -0.956 0.041 0.016 0.151 -0.497 0.837 0.279 0.981
Total 1 1 1 4 1 6 1 2 1 2

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 Oregon 1 2374.43 65.47 1/8 33-4
2 Massachusetts 1 2369.51 48.35 1/7 26-4
3 North Carolina 1 2338.86 41.08 1/7 33-3
4 Colorado 1 2337.87 65.55 1/10 25-4
5 Carleton College 1 2337.82 53.22 1/8 27-3
6 Cal Poly-SLO 1 2236.91 43.63 2/11 33-6
7 Brigham Young 1 2212.51 60.86 2/16 21-2
8 California-Santa Cruz 1 2150.25 43.65 5/17 27-9
9 Oregon State 0.996 2116.46 45.6 5/24 26-13
10 Washington 0.985 2107.1 57.51 6/26 20-12
11 California 0.981 2077.75 47.48 6/25 28-14
12 Northeastern 0.965 2060.98 47.75 6/27 18-14
13 Washington University 0.953 2082.57 62.6 5/28 22-6
14 British Columbia 0.896 2030.23 48.38 8/28 20-9
15 Texas 0.884 2042.23 58.77 7/31 24-8
16 Georgia 0.789 2014.6 49.35 8/31 22-10
17 Brown 0.753 2012.59 49.68 8/33 22-12
18 Vermont 0.691 1998.44 50.93 8/32 15-17
19 Tufts 0.632 1995.17 56.66 7/38 19-10
20 Georgia Tech 0.476 1976.19 46.73 10/33 22-10
21 Penn State 0.474 1972.46 72.44 7/42 18-12
22 Western Washington 0.455 1970.42 39.47 10/34 18-13
23 Victoria 0.369 1950.02 65.48 9/43 18-14
24 Utah Valley 0.311 1944 76.22 7/49 13-8
25 Utah 0.139 1903.46 61.88 12/60 18-13
26 Michigan 0.121 1903.48 66.99 11/52 17-6
27 Ottawa 0.044 1854.8 69.7 15/70 17-1
28 Pittsburgh 0.028 1856.29 64.13 17/57 15-16
29 Virginia 0.027 1861.99 59.48 13/54 20-10
30 Minnesota 0.016 1867.14 48.05 16/48 14-16
31 Ave Maria 0.014 1797.22 83.02 12/83 19-1
32 Cincinnati 0.001 1796.25 56.1 20/67 21-3
33 Davenport 0 2041.09 78.17 5/37 25-1
34 California-Santa Barbara 0 1836.17 34.21 24/52 19-21
35 Elon 0 1825.66 48.46 19/57 24-5
36 South Carolina 0 1815.3 44.52 22/54 22-7
37 Lewis & Clark 0 1797.06 81.34 15/84 20-3
38 Utah State 0 1793.87 54.04 22/66 10-13
39 McGill 0 1778.63 55.86 22/75 14-13
40 Middlebury 0 1774.28 52.32 26/73 21-5
41 California-San Diego 0 1772.27 41.47 27/65 15-22
42 Colorado State 0 1766.65 59.49 25/76 11-16
43 Whitman 0 1764.88 81.05 19/103 11-4
44 Wisconsin 0 1754.2 62.43 22/82 21-12
45 Virginia Tech 0 1752.57 47.02 24/69 21-12
46 Stanford 0 1741.55 35.96 29/68 23-21
47 Emory 0 1735.48 47.27 25/70 18-16
48 North Carolina-Wilmington 0 1731.26 57.19 23/75 19-16
49 Chicago 0 1729.32 63.79 25/84 19-10
50 Tulane 0 1708.09 57.76 27/81 14-11
51 Cornell 0 1706.16 46.75 31/83 25-8
52 William & Mary 0 1693.54 52.35 27/84 24-13
53 Purdue 0 1692.88 58.55 29/91 18-13
54 UCLA 0 1683.5 46.24 32/83 15-19
55 Maryland 0 1677.37 51.94 28/83 22-7
56 Indiana 0 1659.35 50.37 34/88 20-9
57 Oklahoma Christian 0 1656.39 58.64 34/100 19-8
58 James Madison 0 1650.67 44.18 37/87 20-18
59 Illinois 0 1650.19 47.47 36/90 22-9
60 Carleton College-CHOP 0 1646.37 62.45 31/100 23-5
61 Michigan State 0 1636.07 48.65 40/94 22-8
62 North Carolina State 0 1633.63 53.43 34/101 17-18
63 Duke 0 1632.68 54.96 33/96 20-12
64 Georgetown 0 1628.4 58.55 29/102 16-15
65 Grand Canyon 0 1624.33 71.04 31/108 15-5
66 Franciscan 0 1623.97 49.42 40/100 19-4
67 Auburn 0 1621.8 61.77 37/99 15-13
68 Alabama-Huntsville 0 1610.26 50.84 39/98 13-12
69 North Carolina-Charlotte 0 1604.44 65.7 38/111 13-17
70 Dartmouth 0 1595.96 58.78 40/110 16-14
71 Florida 0 1590.96 38.73 46/102 12-11
72 St Olaf 0 1589.88 56.88 42/112 26-9
73 Wesleyan 0 1587.29 93.45 27/134 16-6
74 Temple 0 1584.07 53.52 44/108 18-14
75 Iowa State 0 1582.5 52.69 40/101 24-8
76 Ohio State 0 1570.01 54.68 49/109 17-17
77 Richmond 0 1564.2 55.84 48/118 16-11
78 Notre Dame 0 1554.57 56.61 46/120 15-14
79 Case Western Reserve 0 1545.72 51.37 51/117 20-10
80 Williams 0 1539.38 52.35 49/121 19-9
81 Rochester 0 1538.5 68.28 41/129 16-5
82 Tennessee 0 1525.87 46.52 57/114 12-13
83 Simon Fraser 0 1518.65 124.76 24/170 6-4
84 Boston College 0 1507.56 53.34 59/123 14-11
85 Southern California 0 1499.33 53.51 58/120 20-13
86 Colorado-B 0 1493.4 71.67 43/150 19-6
87 Missouri S&T 0 1491.08 54.59 58/128 23-8
88 Carnegie Mellon 0 1489.55 52.3 60/130 16-13
89 Colorado College 0 1485.28 62.24 55/135 18-8
90 Bowdoin 0 1478.93 61.06 62/136 24-4
91 Vermont-B 0 1478.29 69.46 53/151 19-14
92 Texas A&M 0 1477.88 49.1 64/134 19-20
93 Yale 0 1476.76 67.23 59/155 20-12
94 Cal Poly-CCWR 0 1474.67 82.51 48/174 4-1
95 Southern Illinois-Edwardsville 0 1470.96 54.86 54/133 22-12
96 Lehigh 0 1464.61 60.73 54/144 18-11
97 Missouri 0 1459.97 51.22 69/136 20-11
98 SUNY-Buffalo 0 1457.75 78.26 48/168 14-11
99 Tennessee-Chattanooga 0 1453.61 53.39 66/143 18-12
100 Syracuse 0 1453.35 60.22 65/143 20-17
101 North Carolina-Asheville 0 1448.36 67.46 61/160 12-6
102 Alabama 0 1447.3 47.02 72/144 22-16
103 Berry 0 1444.9 57.39 66/149 19-3
104 Marquette 0 1437.96 63.16 59/152 14-5
105 Appalachian State 0 1434.3 56.78 71/142 18-19
106 Columbia 0 1428.85 51.3 70/148 19-10
107 Claremont 0 1428.35 105.33 31/181 10-4
108 British Columbia -B 0 1419.01 42.13 77/144 12-15
109 San Diego State 0 1410.79 50.29 80/148 23-12
110 Iowa 0 1405.74 58.04 66/153 21-10
111 Liberty 0 1388.97 58.02 74/162 17-13
112 West Chester 0 1375.96 55.44 68/162 21-12
113 Denver 0 1375.42 53.45 79/169 17-11
114 RIT 0 1367 45.99 84/165 19-15
115 Boston University 0 1363.62 57.43 81/175 16-12
116 Colorado Mines 0 1363.26 52.63 81/162 15-9
117 Mississippi State 0 1357.25 40.33 89/156 24-19
118 Connecticut 0 1350.18 56.62 79/168 18-10
119 Cal Poly-SLO-B 0 1348.07 58.94 71/166 14-8
120 Arizona State 0 1347.3 52.27 77/169 8-12
121 Northwestern 0 1344.78 40.1 89/155 10-15
122 Bates 0 1344.49 60.14 83/180 16-13
123 Clemson 0 1343.98 53.44 86/168 17-12
124 Maine 0 1340.26 65.19 73/179 11-9
125 San Jose State 0 1340.19 38.63 96/160 20-13
126 Butler 0 1335.19 67.98 80/188 17-9
127 Central Florida 0 1327.67 46.41 93/164 13-15
128 LSU 0 1323.15 56.66 87/176 13-15
129 Santa Clara 0 1322.07 44.37 93/168 9-13
130 Kenyon 0 1315.76 62.28 85/182 16-8
131 North Texas 0 1313 67.44 85/187 16-7
132 Florida State 0 1310.77 51.89 93/174 13-21
133 Gonzaga 0 1308.08 50.93 91/171 6-10
134 Wisconsin-Eau Claire 0 1306.29 47.16 91/173 20-11
135 Montana State 0 1305.33 63.89 88/182 8-10
136 California-Irvine 0 1300.29 66.74 90/192 8-10
137 Wichita State 0 1297.37 112.24 47/240 3-1
138 George Mason 0 1288.12 49.09 102/181 13-13
139 Puget Sound 0 1288.06 50.19 100/183 12-10
140 Pittsburgh-B 0 1284.99 54.47 99/183 20-12
141 Davidson 0 1278.6 55.93 98/187 14-10
142 Oberlin 0 1270.28 60 100/193 18-8
143 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0 1269.92 53.63 101/182 15-15
144 South Florida 0 1269.39 52.01 100/182 9-16
145 SUNY-Binghamton 0 1266.17 57.38 86/191 8-18
146 Rhode Island 0 1265.72 51.2 103/183 16-13
147 Rutgers 0 1263.64 76.04 90/200 14-12
148 Toronto 0 1262.59 62.96 98/196 7-14
149 Macalester 0 1261.32 39.36 116/177 15-14
150 Lipscomb 0 1253.36 82.22 91/216 7-7
151 Kentucky 0 1248.49 52.76 106/197 12-11
152 Brigham Young-B 0 1244.54 61.71 104/198 11-7
153 Johns Hopkins 0 1238.52 61.84 97/205 14-17
154 Wisconsin-La Crosse 0 1235.7 58.28 103/203 14-12
155 Grand Valley 0 1232.58 42.1 119/185 14-13
156 Grinnell 0 1220.19 71.1 99/218 10-7
157 Brandeis 0 1217.2 49.94 121/194 16-10
158 Kansas 0 1217.19 59.24 112/204 14-10
159 Ithaca 0 1215.04 69.03 101/219 17-11
160 Delaware 0 1213.28 52.17 116/200 14-11
161 Washington-B 0 1211.9 60.76 109/200 11-11
162 Truman State 0 1207.14 51.11 105/200 19-9
163 Massachusetts -B 0 1206.06 51.29 121/201 9-14
164 Pennsylvania 0 1194.08 56.48 112/205 12-18
165 Dayton 0 1191.95 53.73 116/206 12-13
166 Charleston 0 1191.69 82.17 94/239 9-9
167 Michigan Tech 0 1188.6 49.65 123/209 13-15
168 Messiah 0 1183.27 66.3 117/218 12-15
169 Northern Iowa 0 1179.26 49.12 120/204 16-13
170 Alabama-Birmingham 0 1174.88 52.21 131/223 14-12
171 East Carolina 0 1166.37 48.16 133/206 16-22
172 California-Santa Cruz-B 0 1162.98 61.97 114/230 15-7
173 California-Davis 0 1162.65 61.19 128/215 5-19
174 Minnesota-Duluth 0 1155.35 84.12 111/243 7-11
175 Dickinson 0 1152.8 58.21 126/219 10-18
176 Ohio 0 1151.21 62 116/214 19-17
177 American 0 1138.96 61.88 127/226 12-13
178 Carleton University 0 1138.54 86.75 103/242 4-9
179 Tarleton State 0 1132.45 97.04 93/282 12-5
180 Georgia State 0 1116.96 79.08 113/243 7-9
181 Northeastern-B 0 1116.27 62.2 132/235 17-8
182 Union (Tennessee) 0 1112.59 45.59 151/214 12-12
183 Arizona 0 1106.58 53.69 148/225 12-8
184 Georgia Tech-B 0 1101.22 76.07 113/241 9-3
185 Baylor 0 1091.24 64.4 140/237 14-10
186 Vanderbilt 0 1089.21 63.89 134/237 9-10
187 Oklahoma State 0 1083.79 54.27 149/224 16-12
188 Miami (Florida) 0 1073.38 65.89 128/252 10-6
189 Minnesota-B 0 1070.89 50.79 157/231 10-17
190 John Brown 0 1069.63 58.86 149/236 9-11
191 Haverford 0 1068.39 68.72 137/241 18-12
192 Kennesaw State 0 1064.17 50.65 156/242 6-17
193 North Carolina-B 0 1061.64 65.91 142/256 14-10
194 Occidental 0 1058.14 62.24 145/253 7-7
195 Nebraska 0 1056.52 87.95 128/268 9-11
196 Tufts-B 0 1047.6 101.72 126/281 10-7
197 Cal Poly-Humboldt 0 1047.02 70.19 149/258 11-12
198 Eastern Michigan 0 1043.18 82.37 125/277 9-8
199 Saint Louis 0 1042.38 57.16 155/249 7-19
200 North Carolina State-B 0 1040.51 64.38 157/260 14-7
201 Winona State 0 1032.17 61.26 160/257 14-9
202 Towson 0 1024.8 67.47 151/259 10-13
203 Penn State-B 0 1024.7 53.03 159/247 18-8
204 Wisconsin-Whitewater 0 1020.85 81.2 146/269 7-11
205 Vermont-C 0 1015.81 139.35 90/327 6-1
206 Cedarville 0 1015.17 69.91 156/267 8-15
207 SUNY-Albany 0 1012.42 54.43 164/242 10-13
208 UCLA-B 0 1007.79 60.6 156/257 13-15
209 Akron 0 997.92 69.75 160/273 10-11
210 Princeton 0 997.06 58.76 172/261 9-12
211 Cal Poly-Pomona 0 996.29 66.05 153/260 4-13
212 Miami (Ohio) 0 996.18 61.56 172/266 14-10
213 Texas-B 0 985.24 90.16 148/286 7-4
214 Christopher Newport 0 981.36 57.6 175/263 6-13
215 Michigan-B 0 979.37 60.12 172/259 12-16
216 MIT 0 976.13 59.49 170/267 11-14
217 Wisconsin-B 0 976.06 82.31 146/271 12-13
218 Arkansas 0 959.82 72.6 166/280 8-12
219 Oregon-B 0 955.44 70.66 162/269 6-11
220 West Virginia 0 948.77 68.9 167/275 14-7
221 Ave Maria-B 0 946.89 100.49 153/299 3-2
222 Embry-Riddle 0 945.96 96.58 147/301 6-5
223 Harvard 0 939.03 52.85 180/273 7-11
224 Air Force 0 927.9 50.56 187/271 4-14
225 Colby 0 927.19 64.84 163/287 11-12
226 George Washington 0 924.71 67.84 174/284 6-12
227 Georgia Southern 0 918.6 60.11 184/284 9-14
228 Skidmore 0 915.2 57.37 177/282 15-12
229 Illinois State 0 908.05 43.28 199/272 11-20
230 Loyola Marymount 0 907.24 58.8 191/282 5-12
231 Virginia Commonwealth 0 905.77 57.5 183/280 2-15
232 Wake Forest 0 904.77 72.91 180/291 8-16
233 Xavier 0 899.56 54.65 181/280 2-17
234 Grace 0 896.1 80.6 179/302 9-12
235 College of New Jersey 0 893.37 86.15 180/305 10-7
236 Kent State 0 891.15 55.86 187/282 7-15
237 Texas-Dallas 0 886.38 70.31 190/299 6-12
238 Connecticut College 0 885.45 82.31 174/296 11-6
239 Oregon State-B 0 877.6 76.07 166/301 5-11
240 NYU 0 875.07 81.57 161/297 6-16
241 Northern Arizona 0 871.65 60.53 196/289 5-9
242 Worcester Polytechnic 0 867.13 64.37 181/296 10-12
243 Portland 0 864.06 57.38 206/296 8-12
244 Seattle 0 858.11 119.88 153/332 3-2
245 Brown-B 0 857.11 59.07 191/299 9-11
246 East Tennessee State 0 854.19 67.14 189/303 7-11
247 St Thomas 0 848.88 64.87 198/304 9-14
248 Illinois-B 0 845.74 55.31 203/298 14-17
249 DePaul 0 840.77 53.97 209/292 4-11
250 Colorado State-B 0 840.19 65.45 197/294 7-15
251 Santa Clara-B 0 837.41 51.07 210/292 1-2
252 Florida Tech 0 830.03 93.76 191/333 6-3
253 Nevada-Reno 0 822.12 75.63 198/315 8-9
254 Toledo 0 820.43 74.01 192/308 6-11
255 Virginia Tech-B 0 806.34 63.36 208/306 8-10
256 Georgia-B 0 806.18 78.35 203/316 5-8
257 Drexel 0 805.3 55.98 203/299 13-11
258 SUNY-Geneseo 0 799.71 60.12 210/311 10-15
259 Michigan State-B 0 799.33 84.77 189/324 9-6
260 Grand Canyon-B 0 798.15 88.78 189/326 2-4
261 Wisconsin-Platteville 0 795.62 74.85 198/313 5-15
262 Wooster 0 792.52 83.98 192/316 4-2
263 Minnesota State-Mankato 0 788.71 118.66 168/343 8-4
264 Oklahoma 0 787.3 46.07 221/301 9-14
265 Bryant 0 776.95 125.39 168/343 4-2
266 St John's (Minnesota) 0 772.54 67.3 216/318 5-11
267 Salisbury 0 769.52 83.58 199/331 9-7
268 Texas Tech 0 768.35 32.59 241/297 7-8
269 Chico State 0 766.49 60.28 221/312 2-14
270 Jacksonville State 0 766.09 70.39 215/318 5-11
271 California-B 0 761.82 35.81 232/295 10-19
272 Texas-San Antonio 0 760.62 74.05 198/324 6-11
273 Northeastern-C 0 757.13 60.16 225/316 14-13
274 Navy 0 750.44 63.93 220/316 1-14
275 Montana 0 749.22 146.3 142/351 3-7
276 Texas State 0 745.81 72.71 211/333 8-13
277 Harding 0 745.34 49.99 228/310 8-28
278 Southern California-B 0 739.54 68 210/319 6-6
279 North Florida 0 731.48 63.86 216/327 0-8
280 Carleton College-C 0 724.27 56.89 225/319 3-7
281 Mary Washington 0 722.23 92.64 203/339 2-8
282 Amherst 0 721.01 50.64 246/313 8-14
283 Ball State 0 714.61 67.69 229/330 8-14
284 Reed 0 713.31 84.68 215/334 6-11
285 Trinity 0 711.59 59.83 239/324 7-13
286 Loyola-Chicago 0 701.18 76.67 221/330 8-15
287 Knox 0 696.55 99.35 206/341 6-10
288 Maryland-Baltimore County 0 685.62 73.86 229/335 3-11
289 California-Santa Barbara-B 0 670.56 44.64 256/318 3-12
290 Wisconsin-Stevens Point 0 669.31 87.34 214/341 2-9
291 Luther 0 665.96 66.32 240/338 8-10
292 Western Michigan 0 665.74 96.44 213/351 3-13
293 Tennessee Tech 0 654.18 81.7 223/345 1-11
294 Sam Houston 0 651.31 89.47 233/344 7-9
295 Whitworth 0 636.65 121.5 228/360 3-6
296 Bentley 0 636.01 85.54 227/344 2-10
297 Swarthmore 0 632.71 111.41 218/352 5-4
298 Illinois-Chicago 0 630.93 105.07 220/349 3-9
299 Washington University-B 0 626.37 56.06 266/337 5-17
300 Rowan 0 623.62 76.87 251/344 12-15
301 Massachusetts-Lowell 0 619.5 95.04 228/350 7-11
302 Willamette 0 606.53 150.18 190/367 3-5
303 Arizona State-B 0 602.98 77.07 249/346 2-8
304 Pacific Lutheran 0 601.14 62.65 258/342 4-12
305 Minnesota-C 0 596.3 56.48 258/339 7-14
306 Mississippi 0 595.55 62.21 268/339 3-14
307 Central Connecticut State 0 595.07 50.8 271/339 9-15
308 Cincinnati -B 0 590.77 83.88 237/352 6-11
309 Kansas State 0 587.15 65.73 263/345 2-15
310 Mississippi State-B 0 586.73 53.42 268/337 5-12
311 Samford 0 584.13 104.43 244/353 3-4
312 Rice 0 582.11 81.29 242/350 5-8
313 Case Western Reserve-B 0 575.65 102.53 235/360 6-6
314 Connecticut-B 0 575 57.69 269/340 13-13
315 SUNY-Cortland 0 571.4 62.77 267/345 4-17
316 Hofstra 0 570.89 62.5 272/344 11-16
317 Villanova 0 569.58 66.38 271/345 4-18
318 Cal State-Long Beach 0 565.67 112.9 235/354 1-14
319 South Carolina-B 0 560.45 48.99 283/346 7-20
320 Florida-B 0 558.56 84.02 261/360 5-5
321 Texas A&M-B 0 556.45 59.25 266/345 5-12
322 Pennsylvania Western 0 551.1 104.25 231/357 6-11
323 Penn State-Behrend 0 548.76 72.43 272/350 3-5
324 Delaware-B 0 531.99 72.25 267/353 8-8
325 Rose-Hulman 0 529.44 71.61 279/349 5-19
326 Alabama-B 0 519.63 73.77 269/349 5-9
327 Stanford-B 0 512.29 71.07 283/352 0-5
328 Virginia-B 0 502.85 64.74 280/352 10-7
329 Chicago-B 0 492.07 73.63 278/353 2-3
330 Clemson-B 0 463.85 75.41 286/359 0-6
331 Wright State 0 455.5 68.61 287/356 4-19
332 Rensselaer Polytech 0 454.88 55.68 306/354 5-18
333 Western New England 0 445.55 123.08 237/368 2-9
334 California-San Diego-B 0 420.58 64.06 304/357 4-13
335 Purdue-B 0 420.2 86.65 287/364 6-11
336 Washington State 0 420.17 172.1 228/384 2-5
337 Army 0 413.85 62.55 303/358 2-9
338 Lehigh-B 0 411.44 73.21 291/360 5-8
339 Colorado Mesa 0 403.64 107.52 271/375 3-8
340 Indiana-B 0 403.06 120.49 263/372 3-3
341 Cornell-B 0 397.78 66.28 300/365 13-14
342 Dayton-B 0 396.22 88.7 287/364 2-4
343 MIT-B 0 385.03 86.45 288/366 3-7
344 Georgia College 0 376.99 57.2 316/364 1-14
345 SUNY-Buffalo-B 0 371.68 77.18 296/364 4-9
346 Boise State 0 348.32 152.67 250/380 1-10
347 Dallas 0 329.59 73.01 312/368 4-12
348 Northwestern-B 0 298.6 85.12 317/372 1-3
349 Nova Southeastern 0 294.19 48.79 332/365 2-3
350 Harvard-B 0 287.2 66.04 326/368 4-17
351 LSU-B 0 275.62 64.86 325/371 0-4
352 New Hampshire 0 274.79 155.1 264/382 1-10
353 Cal Poly-SLO-C 0 271.44 178.52 206/385 0-5
354 Denver-B 0 264.1 103.41 297/378 1-15
355 San Diego State-B 0 250.94 84.44 319/377 1-14
356 SUNY-Binghamton-B 0 245.04 93.48 322/375 7-7
357 Portland State 0 239.95 153.63 283/383 1-15
358 James Madison-B 0 232.48 73 332/375 5-6
359 West Chester-B 0 224.54 76.3 330/374 7-17
360 Carthage 0 203.76 116.38 321/382 1-11
361 SUNY-Stony Brook 0 193.97 157.5 295/385 1-5
362 Stevens Tech 0 186.02 83.37 333/377 7-13
363 Colorado Mines-B 0 153.99 224.27 265/389 0-6
364 Middlebury-B 0 138.34 135.76 321/385 1-9
365 Wisconsin-C 0 124.17 88.96 338/380 4-8
366 Tennessee-Chattanooga -B 0 123.18 176.29 298/386 0-7
367 Stephen F Austin 0 120.84 62.19 352/380 1-15
368 Maryland-B 0 107.67 62.32 349/380 7-17
369 Ohio-B 0 94.65 101.68 335/384 2-7
370 South Florida-B 0 94.17 98.54 341/383 0-15
371 Iowa-B 0 78.49 111.59 312/385 2-8
372 George Washington-B 0 13.1 87.27 349/384 10-13
373 Wisconsin-Milwaukee-B 0 2.25 77.37 356/384 4-11
374 Notre Dame-B 0 -9.61 95.21 350/384 2-8
375 Georgetown-B 0 -19.72 130.43 338/388 6-5
376 Dartmouth-B 0 -33.81 174.82 308/389 1-7
377 William & Mary-B 0 -43.73 104.9 350/387 1-9
378 RIT-B 0 -55.93 37.58 367/383 2-4
379 Richmond-B 0 -117.36 166.1 340/390 1-2
380 Tufts-C 0 -144.06 250.43 313/390 0-4
381 Illinois-C 0 -191.96 129.22 356/389 2-7
382 Boston University-B 0 -202.13 181.09 335/390 0-9
383 Carnegie Mellon-B 0 -296.3 214.2 340/390 0-6
384 American-B 0 -314.38 147.49 364/390 1-16
385 Marquette-B 0 -318.98 200.83 344/390 1-4
386 Siena 0 -413.82 121.99 376/390 0-11
387 Denison 0 -417.15 241.95 343/390 0-5
388 SUNY-Albany-B 0 -501.92 115.9 376/390 0-12
389 Iowa State-B 0 -512.6 172.3 370/390 1-8
390 Grinnell-B 0 -637.59 421.49 273/390 0-3

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)