Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2022-23 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
2 Atlantic Coast 1.9 North Carolina 100.00%,   North Carolina State 54.50%,   North Carolina-Charlotte 20.90%,   North Carolina-Wilmington 12.10%,   South Carolina 2.20%,   Duke 0.30%,  
1 Great Lakes 0.07 Purdue 4.10%,   Michigan 2.80%,   Indiana 0.10%,  
1 Metro East 0.19 Ottawa 19.20%,  
4 New England 4.28 Massachusetts 100.00%,   Vermont 100.00%,   Tufts 99.20%,   Brown 98.80%,   Northeastern 27.40%,   McGill 2.30%,  
2 North Central 2.17 Minnesota 99.80%,   Carleton College 99.70%,   Wisconsin 17.60%,  
3 Northwest 3.73 Oregon 100.00%,   Brigham Young 100.00%,   Washington 84.50%,   British Columbia 81.20%,   Utah Valley 5.80%,   Utah State 1.80%,   Oregon State 0.10%,   Victoria 0.10%,  
1 Ohio Valley 1.06 Pittsburgh 100.00%,   Ohio State 5.90%,   Penn State 0.50%,  
2 South Central 2.36 Colorado 100.00%,   Texas 100.00%,   Washington University 30.90%,   Missouri 4.80%,  
1 Southeast 0.69 Georgia 56.10%,   Georgia Tech 11.40%,   Florida 1.00%,   Alabama-Huntsville 0.30%,  
3 Southwest 3.55 Cal Poly-SLO 100.00%,   California-Santa Cruz 97.20%,   UCLA 92.20%,   California 64.90%,   Grand Canyon 0.30%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region AC GL ME NE NC NW OV SC SE SW
Initial 1.900 0.070 0.192 4.277 2.171 3.735 1.064 2.357 0.688 3.546
Autos (all @ 1) 0.900 -0.930 -0.808 3.277 1.171 2.735 0.064 1.357 -0.312 2.546
New England (@ 2) 0.900 -0.930 -0.808 2.277 1.171 2.735 0.064 1.357 -0.312 2.546
Northwest (@ 2) 0.900 -0.930 -0.808 2.277 1.171 1.735 0.064 1.357 -0.312 2.546
Southwest (@ 2) 0.900 -0.930 -0.808 2.277 1.171 1.735 0.064 1.357 -0.312 1.546
New England (@ 3) 0.900 -0.930 -0.808 1.277 1.171 1.735 0.064 1.357 -0.312 1.546
Northwest (@ 3) 0.900 -0.930 -0.808 1.277 1.171 0.735 0.064 1.357 -0.312 1.546
Southwest (@ 3) 0.900 -0.930 -0.808 1.277 1.171 0.735 0.064 1.357 -0.312 0.546
South Central (@ 2) 0.900 -0.930 -0.808 1.277 1.171 0.735 0.064 0.357 -0.312 0.546
New England (@ 4) 0.900 -0.930 -0.808 0.277 1.171 0.735 0.064 0.357 -0.312 0.546
North Central (@ 2) 0.900 -0.930 -0.808 0.277 0.171 0.735 0.064 0.357 -0.312 0.546
Atlantic Coast (@ 2) -0.100 -0.930 -0.808 0.277 0.171 0.735 0.064 0.357 -0.312 0.546
Total 2 1 1 4 2 3 1 2 1 3

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 North Carolina 1 2392.65 41.08 1/4 26-1
2 Brigham Young 1 2318.3 49.07 1/7 20-1
3 Massachusetts 1 2311.4 51.19 1/11 19-3
4 Texas 1 2214.74 72.62 1/20 17-5
5 Vermont 1 2210.05 54 1/15 15-7
6 Colorado 1 2197.56 30.36 2/10 18-5
7 Cal Poly-SLO 1 2175.34 44.73 2/14 24-6
8 Pittsburgh 1 2155.17 58.01 2/20 15-7
9 Oregon 1 2137.13 41.14 4/17 23-7
10 Minnesota 0.998 2070.9 42.4 6/24 13-9
11 Carleton College 0.997 2049.86 42.32 6/23 17-12
12 Tufts 0.992 2068.21 50.71 5/25 12-8
13 Brown 0.988 2074.71 58.74 4/23 14-8
14 California-Santa Cruz 0.972 2089.73 75.17 3/27 21-6
15 UCLA 0.922 2028.28 59.64 6/32 15-8
16 Washington 0.845 1990.13 47.08 7/30 16-13
17 British Columbia 0.812 1992.54 58.78 7/33 14-6
18 California 0.649 1961.56 59.82 9/37 19-10
19 Georgia 0.561 1950.84 58.86 10/37 10-12
20 North Carolina State 0.545 1945.39 44.67 10/34 16-11
21 Washington University 0.309 1905.3 71.35 8/44 15-4
22 Northeastern 0.274 1907.16 49.87 12/39 8-14
23 North Carolina-Charlotte 0.209 1894.48 60.96 10/44 17-7
24 Ottawa 0.192 1829.73 132.83 5/106 5-1
25 Wisconsin 0.176 1894.51 47.33 15/40 13-15
26 North Carolina-Wilmington 0.121 1884.26 49.93 14/42 17-8
27 Georgia Tech 0.114 1868.32 62.76 13/46 14-8
28 Ohio State 0.059 1835.96 66.18 13/56 9-11
29 Utah Valley 0.058 1614.07 212.73 2/200 7-0
30 Missouri 0.048 1786.78 97.81 11/85 17-4
31 Purdue 0.041 1773.07 93.62 11/79 7-6
32 Michigan 0.028 1788.81 73.92 13/74 5-10
33 McGill 0.023 1773.38 84.23 15/73 8-5
34 South Carolina 0.022 1848.18 46.5 16/47 16-10
35 Utah State 0.018 1838.26 47.93 14/45 15-12
36 Florida 0.01 1741.41 81.65 15/75 14-8
37 Penn State 0.005 1777.63 66.03 18/62 16-9
38 Duke 0.003 1790.66 56.88 18/59 15-6
39 Grand Canyon 0.003 1705.27 86.88 17/100 6-9
40 Alabama-Huntsville 0.003 1703.11 92.33 17/103 14-2
41 Oregon State 0.001 1805.73 48.2 20/49 16-12
42 Victoria 0.001 1696.72 74.27 20/75 8-13
43 Indiana 0.001 1565.81 115.99 20/154 13-4
44 Oklahoma Christian 0 1843.46 79.59 10/61 14-3
45 Colorado College 0 1735.3 118.84 10/102 12-5
46 William & Mary 0 1718.89 53.4 21/65 12-5
47 Georgetown 0 1696.69 64.64 21/88 10-10
48 Western Washington 0 1688.52 56.65 24/74 9-11
49 Colorado State 0 1647.21 50.94 30/84 7-14
50 Iowa State 0 1646.29 69.57 22/85 14-5
51 Notre Dame 0 1643.24 58.11 31/88 18-10
52 Case Western Reserve 0 1640.03 61.97 31/88 14-12
53 Virginia 0 1635.46 73.8 31/105 8-10
54 Appalachian State 0 1634.05 57.17 30/86 17-7
55 Utah 0 1619.98 81.63 26/105 10-6
56 Northwestern 0 1616.17 80.12 24/105 10-10
57 James Madison 0 1599.65 42.92 37/89 11-7
58 Stanford 0 1582.24 56.59 36/109 5-14
59 California-San Diego 0 1581.4 49.38 36/97 7-14
60 Cincinnati 0 1578.68 82.18 26/120 14-7
61 Middlebury 0 1578.03 62.67 35/102 12-6
62 Emory 0 1576.96 52.9 36/101 11-11
63 Harvard 0 1568.92 70.36 34/106 10-8
64 Rutgers 0 1568.82 72.94 32/103 9-7
65 St. Olaf 0 1567.94 86.11 31/108 19-6
66 Bowdoin 0 1564.31 68.09 32/116 9-0
67 Virginia Tech 0 1553.23 60.59 34/101 11-10
68 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0 1549.9 64.31 35/111 13-6
69 Maryland 0 1539.97 53.12 43/103 11-8
70 Lehigh 0 1526.81 61.31 41/116 16-8
71 Cornell 0 1503.63 80.9 36/133 9-10
72 Auburn 0 1497.79 55.01 41/109 3-19
73 California-Santa Barbara 0 1491.63 54.9 49/125 3-17
74 Lewis & Clark 0 1490.98 63.72 45/122 9-4
75 Grinnell 0 1486.71 81.34 35/131 10-3
76 Princeton 0 1483.33 84.55 35/135 11-1
77 Temple 0 1480.28 70.05 39/143 16-13
78 Santa Clara 0 1475.06 68 40/131 11-5
79 Texas A&M 0 1473.67 66.76 40/136 12-12
80 Connecticut College 0 1472.68 83.42 40/145 12-2
81 Whitman 0 1464.17 69.31 45/138 6-6
82 Binghamton 0 1461.59 49.41 51/117 11-8
83 RIT 0 1450.4 46.5 53/119 13-5
84 Richmond 0 1449.96 64.27 49/135 10-10
85 Alabama 0 1446.97 57.54 48/131 14-12
86 Dartmouth 0 1436.96 56.68 54/130 4-9
87 Tennessee-Chattanooga 0 1436.58 93.36 38/151 12-5
88 Central Florida 0 1434.2 63.39 45/134 14-14
89 Mississippi State 0 1434.03 61.08 56/148 20-8
90 Chicago 0 1433.76 47.73 59/129 13-12
91 Tulane 0 1430.18 68.76 53/136 8-5
92 Missouri S&T 0 1429.77 62.5 46/135 14-7
93 Iowa 0 1426.23 60.97 52/134 13-7
94 Saint Louis 0 1424.74 64.77 56/134 12-6
95 Massachusetts-B 0 1421.81 62.13 58/144 17-4
96 Arkansas 0 1421.43 75.89 44/144 10-2
97 Delaware 0 1419.05 67.01 54/140 5-5
98 Kentucky 0 1416.76 117.7 38/174 3-4
99 Oberlin 0 1397.67 95.95 43/170 9-2
100 Vermont-B 0 1393.39 53.39 68/141 17-5
101 Navy 0 1376.54 91.04 46/161 10-4
102 Kennesaw State 0 1358.42 75.5 58/164 8-3
103 Truman State 0 1353.27 139 39/211 7-4
104 Florida State 0 1344.99 54.11 61/147 12-17
105 California-Davis 0 1344.86 74.09 60/160 15-3
106 Liberty 0 1342.93 85.61 48/170 9-8
107 Tennessee 0 1341.72 63.21 71/149 5-13
108 Vanderbilt 0 1327.59 91.98 49/178 4-8
109 Southern California 0 1323.9 66.29 53/165 1-10
110 Clemson 0 1322.18 91.63 58/176 4-3
111 Washington-B 0 1318.54 78.99 61/191 9-3
112 Illinois 0 1315.95 63.25 74/158 7-14
113 Claremont 0 1312.38 77.88 66/173 10-2
114 Kenyon 0 1312.19 72.4 66/179 9-2
115 Michigan State 0 1310.55 85.18 57/179 7-4
116 John Brown 0 1305.93 85.08 61/183 10-7
117 Colorado Mines 0 1304.66 84.16 64/188 13-3
118 Marquette 0 1300.74 79.75 66/179 6-6
119 College of New Jersey 0 1297.8 89.46 59/185 7-3
120 California-Irvine 0 1295.48 44.72 90/154 7-1
121 Williams 0 1293.51 99.1 47/193 9-4
122 Michigan Tech 0 1293.2 78.91 65/177 10-3
123 Miami (Ohio) 0 1271.83 103.1 57/197 9-3
124 Towson 0 1269.15 98.68 48/197 9-4
125 Washington State 0 1268.18 54.56 81/170 14-7
126 Franciscan 0 1267.64 61.63 84/177 12-6
127 Elon 0 1263.14 76.16 72/180 9-3
128 SUNY-Buffalo 0 1257.5 103.01 55/216 11-2
129 Gonzaga 0 1256.57 85.14 56/197 5-6
130 Messiah 0 1252.36 118.8 44/210 7-6
131 Georgia State 0 1242.56 71.77 78/184 7-14
132 Davidson 0 1238.16 88.35 59/195 6-4
133 Carnegie Mellon 0 1236.36 63.69 90/183 4-12
134 Brigham Young-B 0 1229.12 136.54 35/228 5-2
135 Pacific Lutheran 0 1224.29 56.22 94/182 4-1
136 Portland State 0 1224.14 62.69 88/184 7-5
137 Boston College 0 1218.87 214.33 27/307 2-2
138 Union (Tennessee) 0 1213.56 118.99 61/226 3-1
139 Occidental 0 1198.25 87.74 87/205 10-3
140 Dayton 0 1197.59 184.47 39/291 7-1
141 Cedarville 0 1188.18 72.22 85/196 7-3
142 LSU 0 1183.84 46.86 113/183 15-13
143 Carleton College-CHOP 0 1183.46 39.14 113/173 12-12
144 Colorado-B 0 1182.64 80.57 78/210 10-7
145 Army 0 1175.62 110.3 62/226 5-4
146 Carthage 0 1172.02 81.55 94/211 9-3
147 Kansas 0 1168.82 87.41 85/212 7-5
148 Connecticut 0 1162.5 65.35 103/209 3-15
149 Minnesota-Duluth 0 1160.98 122.22 56/229 5-7
150 Cal Poly-SLO-B 0 1155.06 82.24 90/207 12-6
151 George Washington 0 1148.22 64.31 98/214 4-9
152 Arizona State 0 1146.54 88.07 90/222 5-8
153 Northern Arizona 0 1143.27 96.42 91/223 7-3
154 Columbia 0 1140.93 69.04 104/202 6-5
155 Massachusetts-Lowell 0 1137.13 65.87 114/209 14-5
156 Bates 0 1129.4 67.78 111/215 10-6
157 Wichita State 0 1127.4 68.4 92/208 4-3
158 Yale 0 1125.16 142.71 60/275 7-3
159 Tufts-B 0 1119.1 56.84 113/208 8-5
160 Puget Sound 0 1114.97 67.01 113/218 6-6
161 Wesleyan 0 1114.6 52.94 120/197 6-6
162 Rice 0 1111.75 51.81 123/202 8-7
163 American 0 1104.41 67.36 111/215 8-10
164 Boston University 0 1101.12 52.3 123/204 5-8
165 Butler 0 1100.88 73.67 110/223 6-7
166 Penn State-B 0 1098.45 61.52 119/230 12-10
167 California-San Diego-B 0 1093.73 77.81 112/231 9-4
168 Virginia Commonwealth 0 1090.17 58.94 129/211 6-11
169 Johns Hopkins 0 1086.67 56.58 129/210 10-14
170 NYU 0 1083.88 95.61 101/236 7-5
171 Ithaca 0 1078.57 123.38 63/256 6-5
172 Brandeis 0 1067.13 78.24 109/231 3-8
173 East Carolina 0 1063.43 60.42 129/219 5-7
174 Pittsburgh-B 0 1061.29 82.78 111/235 8-4
175 Sam Houston 0 1054.06 123.58 71/294 3-4
176 Rowan 0 1049.31 77.54 123/229 12-6
177 Syracuse 0 1047.87 62.06 128/226 7-10
178 Rochester 0 1040.29 83.44 111/254 10-9
179 San Diego State 0 1039.82 66.75 132/233 11-5
180 Oregon-B 0 1037.37 84.18 104/255 0-2
181 Loyola Marymount 0 1032.69 80.6 116/241 8-6
182 Nevada-Reno 0 1029.99 90.51 115/251 5-5
183 West Virginia 0 1014.47 103.78 109/272 10-5
184 Berry 0 1013.91 91.16 118/259 4-8
185 Minnesota-B 0 1010.86 96.01 96/253 7-8
186 Denver 0 1007.85 101.66 114/263 3-6
187 West Chester 0 1004.19 79.23 122/258 6-9
188 Texas State 0 997.81 84.4 126/252 6-6
189 SUNY-Geneseo 0 995.99 71.91 135/233 5-5
190 Macalester 0 995.84 107.58 103/266 5-2
191 Luther 0 994.99 90.68 113/260 12-7
192 Montana State 0 994.41 141.74 93/289 1-2
193 MIT 0 990.7 73.56 133/247 9-8
194 Grace 0 981.02 78.2 133/247 8-3
195 Wright State 0 975.91 81.28 137/252 8-5
196 North Texas 0 974.79 76.99 121/246 6-8
197 Amherst 0 958.31 57.29 160/237 7-6
198 Christopher Newport 0 958.08 62.98 152/245 6-5
199 Bryant 0 956.78 153.66 82/304 4-4
200 San Jose State 0 951.03 78.15 141/255 8-3
201 Western Michigan 0 948.15 76.24 129/263 7-3
202 Nebraska 0 944.95 107.29 120/278 8-4
203 North Carolina-B 0 939.76 72.04 151/281 3-7
204 South Florida 0 937.66 72.22 145/254 1-13
205 Northeastern-B 0 936.7 85.59 131/263 5-7
206 Wooster 0 936.45 86.71 135/281 1-6
207 Maine 0 931.24 76.71 133/257 0-6
208 SUNY-Cortland 0 928.34 67.96 146/257 9-12
209 Colby 0 919.36 96.43 130/275 4-2
210 Colgate 0 918.92 119.51 118/308 1-1
211 Illinois State 0 910.77 55.9 170/256 12-15
212 Bentley 0 901.77 55.99 173/260 1-3
213 Alabama-Birmingham 0 900.05 43.17 176/249 12-11
214 Rhode Island 0 897.89 62.22 164/260 5-7
215 Wisconsin-Eau Claire 0 896.19 63.17 169/265 4-5
216 Embry-Riddle 0 894.45 92.77 138/271 3-2
217 Reed 0 889.18 123.33 112/301 3-2
218 Wheaton (Illinois) 0 885.37 61.43 168/258 5-6
219 North Park 0 881.39 78.2 165/269 9-3
220 Boise State 0 877.67 95.17 130/280 6-5
221 Texas-Dallas 0 872.9 75.15 155/276 6-8
222 Tulane-B 0 867.7 70.73 164/273 4-3
223 Georgia-B 0 859.57 126.79 126/306 2-4
224 Dickinson 0 857.52 46.97 182/260 9-5
225 California-B 0 854.57 84.65 161/285 3-8
226 Seattle 0 852.18 84.91 158/286 3-3
227 SUNY-Stony Brook 0 844.3 87.2 158/282 5-10
228 Haverford 0 815.54 60.22 185/273 8-6
229 Brown-B 0 811.32 79.26 168/287 2-3
230 Wisconsin-La Crosse 0 804.02 84.28 177/301 4-3
231 Temple-B 0 798.16 77.55 180/284 11-4
232 Willamette University 0 797.77 66.07 187/283 2-4
233 Arizona 0 796.92 85.18 157/284 1-5
234 Cal State-Long Beach 0 791.86 71.52 182/287 4-11
235 Chico State 0 782.33 47.8 206/276 5-12
236 Florida-B 0 779.88 102.82 162/314 7-6
237 Xavier 0 773.54 53.08 202/287 7-12
238 Air Force 0 770.8 88.9 177/304 1-6
239 Montana 0 765.62 108.4 141/316 3-6
240 Spring Hill 0 763.24 66.53 193/297 4-9
241 Stevens Tech 0 761.16 79.24 171/292 9-8
242 Georgia College 0 759.12 90.15 179/313 4-6
243 Humboldt State 0 757.21 108.69 154/314 2-9
244 Samford 0 756.29 87.69 178/295 2-4
245 California-Santa Barbara-B 0 752.2 110.79 141/319 4-7
246 Pennsylvania 0 751.24 55.28 204/293 5-7
247 SUNY-Albany 0 750.17 82.59 185/309 4-7
248 Northern Iowa 0 748.6 60.07 203/286 5-7
249 Wisconsin-Whitewater 0 748.13 54.98 205/287 6-7
250 Drexel 0 744.62 55.71 211/287 5-20
251 Texas-San Antonio 0 736.73 116.52 152/322 3-6
252 Shippensburg 0 732.92 51.12 206/283 4-6
253 Alabama-B 0 732.66 53.68 204/290 11-15
254 Texas-B 0 729.94 58.98 201/296 5-9
255 Wentworth 0 724.08 90.86 178/314 0-4
256 Oregon State-B 0 717.6 88.31 180/317 3-7
257 Oklahoma 0 717.41 90.3 191/313 5-10
258 Toledo 0 715.41 86.35 193/312 8-5
259 North Carolina State-B 0 714.25 94.32 182/314 1-4
260 Worcester Polytech 0 705.74 108.06 176/324 3-4
261 South Carolina-B 0 698.32 121.17 180/326 8-3
262 Jacksonville State 0 696.19 54.71 217/293 7-13
263 Arizona State-B 0 690.02 146.32 163/340 2-4
264 Ohio State 0 688.72 108.2 189/324 4-3
265 Southern California-B 0 684.99 133.79 172/344 3-3
266 High Point 0 681.67 147.27 164/340 1-3
267 Swarthmore 0 681.59 57.73 222/299 2-7
268 Oklahoma State 0 681.18 77.36 214/321 3-13
269 Fresno State 0 666.86 65.89 208/306 2-4
270 Southern Mississippi 0 653.41 102.29 188/324 2-6
271 Vermont-C 0 651.5 214.53 124/354 3-2
272 Georgia Southern 0 651.38 67.27 222/312 4-15
273 Harding 0 649.49 71.76 207/323 10-10
274 Wake Forest 0 648.05 65.49 218/316 3-9
275 Texas A&M-B 0 632.62 100.42 201/331 5-8
276 Ohio 0 619.6 81.88 217/322 5-7
277 Michigan-B 0 615.53 54.38 239/308 4-7
278 DePaul 0 612.64 76.37 227/320 5-8
279 UCLA-B 0 608.45 69.58 224/319 6-7
280 Georgia Tech-B 0 592.39 54.79 243/311 3-8
281 Loyola-Chicago 0 592.28 82.92 222/324 6-4
282 Baylor 0 590.26 109.15 208/337 3-7
283 New Hampshire 0 589.84 75.31 225/319 0-6
284 Wisconsin-Platteville 0 585.33 80.56 219/323 5-7
285 Ball State 0 578.31 62.04 244/316 5-7
286 Valparaiso 0 574.73 108.66 213/339 2-4
287 Skidmore 0 559.39 53.73 254/316 2-6
288 Memphis 0 557.57 132.1 172/350 2-4
289 Villanova 0 550.02 114.88 209/342 3-8
290 Maryland-Baltimore County 0 546.22 123.67 193/350 1-5
291 Portland 0 543.8 66.57 238/330 2-10
292 California-Davis-B 0 538.85 71.55 249/324 3-7
293 Miami (Florida) 0 535.31 114.69 215/351 2-5
294 SUNY-Oneonta 0 528.78 58.29 253/326 3-2
295 California-Santa Cruz-B 0 523.03 66.14 242/329 3-13
296 Connecticut-B 0 514.62 83.69 234/333 5-6
297 Dartmouth-B 0 507.19 88.7 240/344 4-2
298 Winona State 0 505.72 123.69 213/349 1-8
299 Muhlenberg 0 502.74 135.57 212/354 3-3
300 Wisconsin-B 0 501.68 63.76 259/331 4-8
301 Michigan State-B 0 484.49 98.26 242/353 2-8
302 Hofstra 0 472.59 76.09 258/334 3-12
303 Western New England 0 466.19 63.41 259/341 1-4
304 Rutgers-B 0 445.4 60.19 274/332 4-5
305 Purdue-B 0 444.25 66.21 273/337 4-8
306 Houston 0 441.62 56.45 279/334 3-8
307 Whitworth 0 434.59 59.94 272/342 3-8
308 Mississippi State-B 0 431.99 75.51 257/344 4-15
309 SUNY-Binghamton-B 0 431.03 84.64 262/348 2-7
310 Rose-Hulman 0 418.14 108.39 234/355 2-4
311 St. Thomas 0 417.4 153.6 209/363 1-4
312 Charleston 0 414.85 93.27 267/356 0-4
313 West Chester-B 0 404.61 131.51 232/358 3-7
314 Virginia-B 0 402.31 135.75 225/360 1-5
315 Wisconsin-Stevens Point 0 388.74 88.3 266/357 3-8
316 Knox 0 380.28 102.56 257/357 5-6
317 Virginia Tech-B 0 358.35 137.64 231/363 5-1
318 San Diego State-B 0 356.09 170.58 228/368 1-4
319 Illinois-B 0 354.06 126.06 241/361 4-8
320 SUNY-Stony Brook-B 0 350.82 69.8 273/352 0-6
321 Harvard-B 0 343.86 63.63 290/352 1-11
322 Rensselaer Polytech 0 340.74 78.08 281/355 5-5
323 North Carolina-Asheville 0 338.89 133.16 253/360 0-6
324 Carleton College-Karls-C 0 325.23 173.17 233/368 1-5
325 Akron 0 314.65 93.39 274/357 3-3
326 Stanford-B 0 313.63 91.09 278/357 2-11
327 Minnesota-C 0 303.88 105.13 254/363 2-9
328 Vassar 0 303.67 136.88 236/366 2-3
329 Idaho 0 297.65 99 266/360 0-9
330 Bradley 0 295.17 169.09 216/370 2-3
331 Caltech 0 290.09 174.57 215/370 1-4
332 Washington University-B 0 286.27 170.23 208/370 1-5
333 Kansas State 0 284.46 129.49 259/362 1-6
334 Kent State 0 280.6 131.62 267/367 2-4
335 Marquette-B 0 278.39 108.22 284/365 1-4
336 Mary Washington 0 272.47 139.89 267/366 1-5
337 Edinboro 0 269.09 75.85 295/361 3-7
338 Texas Tech 0 259.21 124.65 269/366 1-10
339 Messiah 0 245.51 80.27 302/361 2-4
340 California-San Diego-C 0 240.44 134.58 259/367 2-10
341 Northwestern-B 0 237.1 191.04 206/373 0-6
342 Southern Illinois-Edwardsville 0 234.83 121.06 280/366 0-6
343 Trinity 0 214.29 133.34 264/369 2-8
344 Maryland-B 0 202.53 78.4 302/362 10-2
345 Colorado State-B 0 184.87 287.72 143/375 1-3
346 St John's (Minnesota) 0 184.75 87.9 300/362 1-5
347 Northeastern-C 0 183.91 88.82 305/364 0-6
348 Lehigh-B 0 171.51 70.41 309/363 2-11
349 Iowa State-B 0 170.46 100.24 308/367 2-9
350 Santa Clara-B 0 164.2 150.2 247/370 0-6
351 James Madison-B 0 138.76 106.95 293/369 4-2
352 Mississippi 0 118.18 195.37 267/374 0-7
353 Salisbury 0 113.52 130.88 300/370 0-9
354 Notre Dame-B 0 92.13 112.72 310/370 2-4
355 Mississippi College 0 86.58 84.59 329/369 0-11
356 Cornell-B 0 77.22 84.81 320/368 4-7
357 Grand Canyon-B 0 62.48 169.1 292/374 1-8
358 SUNY-Fredonia 0 38.06 131.24 311/372 0-10
359 Siena 0 23.92 103.23 312/370 1-9
360 Iowa-B 0 4.42 123.03 316/372 1-5
361 Butler-B 0 -47.28 126.68 328/374 1-10
362 Case Western Reserve-B 0 -48.44 134.9 320/374 2-9
363 Denver-B 0 -62.44 219.61 281/375 1-9
364 Pacific Lutheran-B 0 -69.8 363.21 160/376 0-2
365 SUNY-Albany-B 0 -113.91 98.44 339/373 1-9
366 William & Mary-B 0 -127.78 94.09 350/373 3-4
367 Pennsylvania-B 0 -133.76 93.27 333/373 2-8
368 Wisconsin-Milwaukee-B 0 -149.24 59.22 355/372 0-5
369 Georgetown-B 0 -245.86 68.77 358/374 2-4
370 Delaware-B 0 -318.81 231.72 305/376 1-5
371 George Washington-B 0 -381.96 60.36 364/375 3-9
372 Southern Connecticut State 0 -392.76 238.6 333/376 0-4
373 SUNY-Buffalo-B 0 -434.65 211.9 339/376 0-9
374 Grinnell-B 0 -490.93 389.97 228/376 1-5
375 Wisconsin-Oshkosh 0 -615.93 385.1 291/376 0-6
376 American-B 0 -930.67 146.13 372/376 0-11

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)