Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2018-19 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
2 Atlantic Coast 2.13 North Carolina State 100.00%,   North Carolina 100.00%,   South Carolina 5.80%,   North Carolina-Wilmington 5.50%,   Johns Hopkins 1.10%,   William & Mary 0.60%,  
1 Great Lakes 0.81 Michigan 80.40%,   Indiana 0.60%,   Illinois 0.30%,   Purdue 0.10%,  
1 Metro East 0
2 New England 2.52 Brown 100.00%,   Massachusetts 100.00%,   Tufts 46.50%,   Northeastern 5.10%,   Vermont 0.50%,   Dartmouth 0.20%,  
3 North Central 2.93 Carleton College-CUT 100.00%,   Wisconsin 97.80%,   Minnesota 94.20%,   Iowa State 1.00%,  
3 Northwest 3.05 Oregon 100.00%,   Brigham Young 100.00%,   Washington 99.90%,   Victoria 4.20%,   British Columbia 0.50%,  
2 Ohio Valley 2 Pittsburgh 100.00%,   Ohio State 99.70%,  
3 South Central 3.01 Colorado 99.90%,   Texas 97.00%,   Colorado State 69.00%,   Texas Tech 28.70%,   Texas-Dallas 3.70%,   Texas A&M 2.40%,  
1 Southeast 1.31 Central Florida 94.30%,   Georgia 26.60%,   Auburn 5.90%,   LSU 3.90%,   Alabama 0.40%,  
2 Southwest 2.24 Cal Poly-SLO 100.00%,   Southern California 89.10%,   California 32.20%,   Las Positas 2.10%,   UCLA 0.60%,   California-Santa Barbara 0.20%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region AC GL ME NE NC NW OV SC SE SW
Initial 2.130 0.814 0.000 2.523 2.930 3.046 1.997 3.007 1.311 2.242
Autos (all @ 1) 1.130 -0.186 -1.000 1.523 1.930 2.046 0.997 2.007 0.311 1.242
Northwest (@ 2) 1.130 -0.186 -1.000 1.523 1.930 1.046 0.997 2.007 0.311 1.242
South Central (@ 2) 1.130 -0.186 -1.000 1.523 1.930 1.046 0.997 1.007 0.311 1.242
North Central (@ 2) 1.130 -0.186 -1.000 1.523 0.930 1.046 0.997 1.007 0.311 1.242
New England (@ 2) 1.130 -0.186 -1.000 0.523 0.930 1.046 0.997 1.007 0.311 1.242
Southwest (@ 2) 1.130 -0.186 -1.000 0.523 0.930 1.046 0.997 1.007 0.311 0.242
Atlantic Coast (@ 2) 0.130 -0.186 -1.000 0.523 0.930 1.046 0.997 1.007 0.311 0.242
Northwest (@ 3) 0.130 -0.186 -1.000 0.523 0.930 0.046 0.997 1.007 0.311 0.242
South Central (@ 3) 0.130 -0.186 -1.000 0.523 0.930 0.046 0.997 0.007 0.311 0.242
Ohio Valley (@ 2) 0.130 -0.186 -1.000 0.523 0.930 0.046 -0.003 0.007 0.311 0.242
North Central (@ 3) 0.130 -0.186 -1.000 0.523 -0.070 0.046 -0.003 0.007 0.311 0.242
Total 2 1 1 2 3 3 2 3 1 2

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 North Carolina 1 2231.92 45.67 1/7 24-2
2 Brown 1 2229.16 53.21 1/12 20-2
3 Oregon 1 2188.99 57.22 1/14 20-5
4 Pittsburgh 1 2184.92 49.77 1/14 17-5
5 Cal Poly-SLO 1 2144.46 42.54 1/13 24-4
6 Brigham Young 1 2134.73 41.92 1/16 24-3
7 Carleton College-CUT 1 2118.64 57.55 1/16 15-8
8 Massachusetts 1 2065.5 40.3 3/18 16-4
9 North Carolina State 1 2027.57 38.27 5/19 19-8
10 Colorado 0.999 2095.44 73.35 1/22 13-6
11 Washington 0.999 2044.51 52.4 4/21 14-7
12 Ohio State 0.997 1992.06 45.04 5/24 9-6
13 Wisconsin 0.978 2000.97 62.51 3/26 14-7
14 Texas 0.97 2009.9 72.93 2/26 14-6
15 Central Florida 0.943 1990.32 85.75 1/43 12-3
16 Minnesota 0.942 1951.05 57.34 6/26 12-10
17 Southern California 0.891 1976.15 84.88 2/40 14-4
18 Michigan 0.804 1908.77 46.54 8/33 19-3
19 Colorado State 0.69 1899.55 64.6 8/40 10-10
20 Tufts 0.465 1864.15 54.38 11/41 10-12
21 California 0.322 1843.46 63.07 10/46 18-10
22 Texas Tech 0.287 1831.13 75.34 10/60 16-4
23 Georgia 0.266 1834.49 59.01 13/52 13-9
24 Auburn 0.059 1796.78 52.42 15/52 18-9
25 South Carolina 0.058 1786.69 55.4 14/60 19-9
26 North Carolina-Wilmington 0.055 1780.98 57.72 14/56 15-11
27 Northeastern 0.051 1775.83 58.18 15/62 11-11
28 Victoria 0.042 1765.9 63.24 15/65 10-9
29 LSU 0.039 1777.74 51.59 17/55 17-12
30 Texas-Dallas 0.037 1771.91 58.24 14/56 10-12
31 Texas A&M 0.024 1748.41 64.4 14/67 9-12
32 Las Positas 0.021 1678.54 95.76 17/90 5-1
33 Johns Hopkins 0.011 1731.17 56.3 19/65 17-4
34 Iowa State 0.01 1659.23 99.71 16/98 7-5
35 William & Mary 0.006 1746.68 44.73 17/56 18-6
36 UCLA 0.006 1728.73 58.53 19/65 13-9
37 Indiana 0.006 1626.62 96.13 18/117 19-2
38 Vermont 0.005 1705.77 60 19/69 15-5
39 British Columbia 0.005 1673.61 83.08 18/87 9-11
40 Alabama 0.004 1723.14 54.87 20/63 17-10
41 Illinois 0.003 1720.39 59.51 17/67 15-11
42 Dartmouth 0.002 1686.47 69.58 18/78 11-9
43 California-Santa Barbara 0.002 1663.25 75.89 18/90 9-12
44 Purdue 0.001 1707.04 51.78 20/63 15-6
45 Middlebury 0 1726.5 46.39 18/65 18-2
46 Harvard 0 1672.28 59.96 24/74 8-14
47 Virginia 0 1671.41 65.85 21/74 10-11
48 Maryland 0 1656.33 40.11 26/72 10-11
49 Kennesaw State 0 1646.49 63.29 22/84 9-13
50 Northwestern 0 1637.69 62.1 25/86 7-16
51 Stanford 0 1632.74 56.34 26/81 9-16
52 Western Washington 0 1629.76 64.87 24/81 9-12
53 Notre Dame 0 1626.67 63.53 24/86 12-7
54 Virginia Tech 0 1619.44 60.95 26/86 11-11
55 Florida State 0 1611.67 55.41 26/86 15-15
56 California-San Diego 0 1592.76 62.11 31/87 11-8
57 Carnegie Mellon 0 1587.38 56.44 29/91 8-11
58 Whitman 0 1579.65 68.41 25/96 13-9
59 Oregon State 0 1562.19 62.21 29/95 11-8
60 Bryant University 0 1554.37 113.13 18/135 10-0
61 Tennessee 0 1554.19 61.8 28/97 13-17
62 Duke 0 1551 61.07 37/97 10-8
63 Rice 0 1546.14 74.83 20/120 10-2
64 Ohio 0 1539.4 55.06 41/98 18-9
65 Florida 0 1535.75 55.04 37/98 12-10
66 Penn State 0 1535.24 58.87 36/101 11-9
67 Oklahoma State 0 1533.96 79.16 29/117 13-5
68 Cincinnati 0 1515.37 64.84 39/115 16-10
69 Emory 0 1508.46 66.92 33/108 10-12
70 St Olaf 0 1500.54 85.37 25/129 10-1
71 Michigan Tech 0 1490.99 85.49 28/133 9-1
72 Alabama-Huntsville 0 1483.99 58.37 44/128 10-12
73 Temple 0 1480.87 58.26 44/114 11-11
74 Arizona 0 1479.09 86.81 40/136 9-9
75 Air Force 0 1477.54 67.62 39/119 14-3
76 Utah 0 1473.73 66.54 43/124 14-10
77 Colby 0 1472.69 221.27 1/257 8-1
78 Carleton College-GoP 0 1457.72 58.96 51/124 10-7
79 Tulane 0 1456.42 89.55 34/148 6-10
80 Oklahoma 0 1451.97 69.96 39/133 14-12
81 Georgia Tech 0 1447.32 67.29 54/127 7-12
82 Texas State 0 1442.65 87.26 40/149 11-7
83 Rutgers 0 1432.97 59.79 51/133 10-12
84 Brandeis 0 1431.89 59.98 51/125 16-3
85 Richmond 0 1429.7 61.61 55/137 19-7
86 Marquette 0 1426.08 69.23 38/151 13-5
87 Case Western Reserve 0 1422.56 62.22 54/129 12-9
88 Tennessee-Chattanooga 0 1419.19 56.91 50/126 8-12
89 Luther 0 1396.55 101.11 32/163 11-3
90 Santa Clara 0 1386.86 58.46 58/144 6-13
91 Mary Washington 0 1382.51 53.83 51/138 16-6
92 John Brown 0 1377.68 68.53 58/173 12-7
93 California-Davis 0 1377.55 96.21 32/164 6-5
94 Appalachian State 0 1372.43 47.31 69/133 11-13
95 Bates College 0 1369.77 89.47 52/165 17-3
96 Bowdoin 0 1367.81 112.83 35/180 12-2
97 Grand Valley State 0 1363.8 77.59 53/157 12-2
98 Kansas 0 1363.18 45.93 66/152 9-12
99 Lewis & Clark 0 1358.77 57.51 66/149 18-5
100 California-Santa Cruz 0 1358.77 41.83 75/132 12-11
101 Connecticut 0 1356.24 62.6 61/152 10-16
102 Georgetown 0 1351.18 69.91 62/161 9-15
103 Georgia State 0 1348.38 74.8 52/163 15-6
104 Portland 0 1339.16 55.62 66/153 15-4
105 Iowa 0 1337.36 77.98 57/170 15-3
106 Illinois State 0 1327.34 56.5 61/153 5-16
107 Franciscan 0 1325.52 56.94 70/158 9-4
108 North Carolina-Charlotte 0 1325.07 62.75 66/165 9-8
109 Truman State 0 1323.3 78.12 63/172 12-1
110 Williams 0 1315.82 56.74 73/161 10-7
111 Wisconsin-Whitewater 0 1306.21 60.29 67/167 16-5
112 Davidson 0 1301.9 69.27 58/174 12-6
113 Liberty 0 1300.11 83.3 58/179 13-7
114 Villanova 0 1296.39 114.29 56/200 10-2
115 Nevada-Reno 0 1293.72 77.26 70/183 10-8
116 Jacksonville State 0 1292.5 110.64 47/207 7-0
117 MIT 0 1287.73 59.49 76/180 9-6
118 Clemson 0 1283.55 54.08 81/158 8-17
119 James Madison 0 1282.8 61.1 79/167 13-14
120 Puget Sound 0 1281.02 72.85 72/185 13-6
121 Yale 0 1279.52 65.1 71/192 15-4
122 New Mexico 0 1279.41 67.55 69/184 14-4
123 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0 1278.72 65.5 73/171 11-5
124 Colorado School of Mines 0 1278.32 59.67 80/164 12-8
125 New Hampshire 0 1275.42 54.39 81/162 7-5
126 Boston College 0 1274.72 63.43 72/168 10-10
127 Marist 0 1271.8 82.32 52/186 9-1
128 Baylor 0 1270.94 54.11 82/158 10-3
129 Chicago 0 1266.49 43.66 90/161 5-11
130 Kentucky 0 1251.16 78.64 71/195 6-8
131 Utah State 0 1245.27 79.3 73/191 11-6
132 Boston University 0 1244.39 69.91 72/199 6-1
133 University of Pittsburgh-B 0 1243.04 65.8 81/190 11-6
134 South Florida 0 1237.03 68.94 85/185 4-11
135 North Carolina-B 0 1233.15 60.99 88/189 10-11
136 Missouri S&T 0 1230.09 80.42 77/192 8-5
137 Pennsylvania 0 1229.67 78.93 81/208 9-9
138 Princeton 0 1209.71 61.27 85/191 7-6
139 Minnesota-Duluth 0 1199.07 52.23 87/181 7-4
140 Colorado College 0 1191.77 96.47 71/235 6-4
141 Dayton 0 1189.68 67.42 91/209 12-8
142 North Carolina-Asheville 0 1188.17 48.45 107/191 9-5
143 Delaware 0 1187.94 89.48 84/219 6-5
144 Michigan-B 0 1181.95 63.26 97/196 15-6
145 SUNY-Stony Brook 0 1179.21 80.31 86/206 11-3
146 Cornell 0 1178.08 91.78 64/212 4-11
147 SUNY-Binghamton 0 1162.14 82.29 90/221 11-9
148 Arkansas 0 1153.2 65.98 91/217 4-13
149 SUNY-Albany 0 1151.01 91.51 76/239 6-4
150 Syracuse 0 1150.57 80.4 93/220 9-4
151 Elon 0 1149.58 49.75 118/195 7-7
152 Minnesota-B 0 1136.27 81.42 94/246 12-5
153 Drexel 0 1129.41 52.5 112/214 8-13
154 Lehigh 0 1129.08 63.2 105/217 15-14
155 Mississippi State 0 1125.81 58.77 113/204 15-14
156 Vanderbilt 0 1124.38 62.87 102/216 14-11
157 Sul Ross State 0 1117.91 78.42 101/238 4-4
158 Washington State 0 1109.49 68.89 111/224 15-9
159 SUNY-Geneseo 0 1106.58 86.71 99/247 7-8
160 Arizona State 0 1103.22 94.7 82/256 7-5
161 Georgia Southern 0 1091.91 48.41 132/218 9-17
162 Virginia Commonwealth 0 1091.83 71.57 117/232 8-12
163 Minnesota State-Mankato 0 1089.29 79.87 108/231 10-3
164 Whitworth 0 1087.23 87.64 97/253 8-5
165 Chico State 0 1084.3 89.12 108/258 12-5
166 Colorado-Denver 0 1083.91 74.22 106/243 11-6
167 RIT 0 1081.65 62.51 119/232 8-12
168 Georgia College 0 1069.11 57.84 122/238 5-9
169 Cedarville 0 1067.46 53.09 127/221 14-7
170 North Texas 0 1067.1 56.4 118/227 10-8
171 Bentley 0 1065.27 73.25 111/243 8-7
172 Winona State 0 1062.04 52.43 139/223 11-7
173 Army 0 1059.73 52.48 134/228 7-8
174 Nebraska 0 1058.84 80.51 110/241 4-6
175 Humboldt State 0 1058.43 95.1 107/271 4-7
176 Massachusetts-C 0 1056 115.86 88/294 4-1
177 Messiah 0 1042.84 90.15 105/257 9-7
178 Oberlin 0 1041.96 74.51 123/249 8-11
179 California-B 0 1032.51 55.44 141/242 7-4
180 Alabama-Birmingham 0 1031.96 67.78 128/249 9-11
181 Macalester 0 1031.62 77.67 127/249 6-5
182 NYU 0 1030.6 74.2 127/261 7-6
183 East Carolina 0 1030.36 90.12 108/270 5-7
184 Bradley 0 1025.91 145.18 82/318 4-1
185 Montana State 0 1024.96 102.68 110/286 7-7
186 Gonzaga 0 1022.54 85.86 122/268 10-9
187 Colgate 0 1011.84 79.29 124/266 8-5
188 Kansas State 0 1007.61 83.43 131/265 9-5
189 George Washington 0 1003.81 85.33 125/277 5-10
190 Middle Tennessee State 0 1003.14 67.48 140/248 12-6
191 George Mason 0 1001.39 57.86 140/254 8-18
192 Valparaiso 0 998.06 106.83 91/299 7-4
193 Claremont 0 996.34 77.92 136/268 5-4
194 Montana 0 984.24 62.89 140/251 6-8
195 Brown-B 0 982.84 103.67 123/283 6-2
196 Northern Arizona 0 973.07 85.63 136/272 12-7
197 Wheaton (Illinois) 0 972.12 93.99 121/279 7-4
198 SUNY-Buffalo 0 971.8 62.88 147/255 6-11
199 Wisconsin-B 0 970.59 81.13 134/268 11-8
200 West Chester 0 966.25 74.25 141/270 5-6
201 North Florida 0 965.51 54.85 148/255 13-10
202 Berry 0 958.78 81.67 126/288 13-6
203 Trinity 0 957.89 94.85 129/295 8-6
204 Rochester 0 953.29 55.6 165/265 6-8
205 University of Massachusetts Amherst-B 0 952.02 140.46 98/325 8-4
206 Texas Christian 0 950.62 74 148/282 8-5
207 Columbia 0 948.26 125.73 111/318 9-6
208 Occidental 0 927.34 70.23 145/276 8-7
209 St. Thomas 0 924.53 123.4 109/327 3-4
210 Michigan State 0 922.83 81.63 137/282 2-10
211 North Georgia 0 921.77 84.96 132/289 9-4
212 Grand Canyon 0 919.88 63.99 168/274 10-5
213 Rensselaer Polytech 0 916.61 61.51 165/272 5-13
214 DePaul 0 916.56 71.7 159/276 5-6
215 SUNY-Oneonta 0 916.54 145.78 112/345 8-4
216 Miami (Ohio) 0 916.45 79.19 152/283 6-6
217 Florida State-B 0 915.33 61.59 151/274 15-9
218 Swarthmore 0 914.86 70.83 156/283 7-4
219 Missouri 0 913.85 85.89 140/291 6-7
220 Stonehill 0 911.95 169.74 89/341 3-2
221 Knox 0 910.52 47.65 174/267 8-2
222 Lamar 0 909.04 144.98 84/340 4-1
223 Belmont 0 907.64 114.92 122/318 7-3
224 Florida Tech 0 906.26 78.7 149/287 8-11
225 Northern Iowa 0 905.68 59.29 159/283 8-9
226 Wisconsin-Platteville 0 902 68.71 172/280 8-5
227 Loyola-Chicago 0 899.86 93.54 147/306 5-8
228 Denver 0 897.8 69.08 150/280 8-9
229 Wisconsin-Eau Claire 0 889.84 65.17 161/277 10-8
230 Washington-B 0 888.48 81.53 140/297 10-14
231 Rowan 0 886.46 77.68 155/300 4-10
232 Haverford 0 882.39 96.41 145/312 6-5
233 Colorado-B 0 877.2 78.6 155/302 9-9
234 Stevens Tech 0 876.22 82.74 159/304 8-4
235 Florida-B 0 875.42 68.16 164/293 12-10
236 Xavier 0 874.74 68.32 171/304 6-9
237 Shippensburg 0 866.33 81.7 136/294 5-7
238 Wisconsin- La Crosse 0 857.01 80.73 160/298 9-8
239 Maryland-Baltimore County 0 855.26 82.98 145/295 5-4
240 Samford 0 851.32 89.85 155/312 5-7
241 SUNY-Cortland 0 845.28 70.17 167/296 5-6
242 Anderson 0 843.09 83.19 158/300 4-8
243 Cal Poly-Pomona 0 840.19 68.34 162/306 10-10
244 Boston College-B 0 832.55 99.23 150/326 9-6
245 Georgia-B 0 831.15 82.23 173/316 4-9
246 Charleston 0 830.33 92.32 167/310 6-6
247 Olivet Nazarene 0 830.05 72.01 166/297 7-4
248 Florida Atlantic 0 830.05 106.67 152/332 1-6
249 Cal Poly-SLO-B 0 821.14 53.43 188/285 8-8
250 Tufts-B 0 819.8 106.88 147/323 5-10
251 Georgia Tech-B 0 813.95 94.51 158/320 9-5
252 Cal State-Long Beach 0 800.7 46.18 206/289 8-4
253 Penn State-B 0 798.33 72.64 177/310 9-5
254 SUNY-Fredonia 0 787.71 70.53 190/312 9-6
255 Ithaca 0 787.4 107.32 145/332 5-6
256 Ball State 0 785.46 79.94 173/318 6-7
257 Delaware-B 0 782.13 101.17 160/327 8-4
258 San Diego State 0 780.82 89.32 169/316 4-9
259 Arizona State-B 0 776.47 74.13 172/311 14-9
260 Colorado State-B 0 775.73 60.11 189/306 9-8
261 Union (Tennessee) 0 771.62 127.8 139/348 4-6
262 Illinois-B 0 770.93 80.6 180/319 9-8
263 North Park 0 769.64 71.62 196/309 8-8
264 Texas-San Antonio 0 769.49 71.29 192/312 8-10
265 Christopher Newport 0 764.63 90.15 176/321 8-4
266 Maryland-B 0 758.09 63.2 193/307 11-3
267 Idaho 0 754.23 79.55 185/324 6-15
268 Skidmore 0 749.6 70.37 197/327 7-6
269 Catholic 0 741.95 94.94 175/334 3-6
270 Tennessee Tech 0 738.63 139.6 147/366 3-3
271 Dallas Baptist 0 735.15 78.77 197/334 5-4
272 Troy 0 729.84 94.07 201/336 2-8
273 Toledo 0 722.93 64.44 217/322 3-8
274 Abilene Christian 0 718.5 108.29 178/345 3-2
275 Massachusetts-Lowell 0 712.56 53.53 221/318 3-10
276 Brigham Young-B 0 711.02 64.03 215/336 4-10
277 Hofstra 0 708.47 58.23 229/320 6-8
278 Pacific Lutheran 0 703.37 51.44 230/313 5-12
279 Navy 0 702.9 84.18 200/336 3-14
280 Wentworth 0 701.4 87.39 208/332 4-7
281 Florida Gulf Coast 0 697.54 114.68 174/359 5-3
282 Embry-Riddle (Florida) 0 695.98 87.28 212/342 7-7
283 LSU-B 0 695.81 74.41 223/333 8-11
284 Connecticut-B 0 694.68 98.19 186/335 9-5
285 Texas A&M-B 0 683.95 83.28 218/340 4-7
286 Towson 0 682.65 98.81 203/343 3-9
287 High Point 0 677.14 70.23 230/333 11-9
288 Salisbury 0 653.13 68.3 235/345 8-11
289 Ohio Northern 0 652.2 99.99 182/354 3-10
290 Rhode Island 0 644.91 69.78 238/340 4-9
291 Boise State 0 642.33 69.98 229/340 7-10
292 Bethel 0 641.12 94.42 222/363 7-5
293 Colorado Mesa 0 640.69 52.92 248/335 3-10
294 Alabama-B 0 639.82 68.17 241/343 7-11
295 Illinois State-B 0 633.22 81.36 210/346 10-10
296 Campbell 0 628.18 74.71 233/345 2-10
297 Central Washington 0 625.02 183.51 136/384 1-4
298 Portland State 0 613.97 92.06 232/358 4-7
299 Drake 0 613.8 74.95 232/346 4-8
300 Purdue-B 0 599.8 88.84 211/350 8-6
301 North Carolina State -B 0 594.87 142.23 172/380 1-5
302 Ohio State-B 0 592.54 103.39 209/360 3-8
303 Carleton Hot Karls 0 589.49 60.22 262/341 6-13
304 Mississippi 0 587.21 65.97 221/346 5-16
305 Dartmouth-B 0 586.49 120.36 200/380 3-4
306 Stephen F. Austin 0 585 64.11 264/343 7-6
307 Western Washington University-B 0 581.73 75.31 232/347 6-16
308 Indiana-B 0 575.63 81.61 249/358 7-6
309 Caltech 0 564.78 96.56 245/367 2-5
310 Northern Illinois 0 561.93 103.64 223/357 4-10
311 Wingate 0 561.08 53.19 271/344 2-4
312 Kenyon 0 559.98 71.1 251/353 3-9
313 Milwaukee School of Engineering 0 559.2 62.18 253/348 3-8
314 James Madison-B 0 547.25 97.94 217/363 7-6
315 College of New Jersey 0 541.21 71.07 259/352 3-8
316 Arkansas State 0 541.03 90.22 234/365 4-6
317 Southern Connecticut State 0 534.13 85.95 260/362 5-7
318 Wake Forest 0 533.6 88.92 255/371 4-8
319 Kent State 0 530.09 44.58 287/348 7-2
320 Colorado-Colorado Springs 0 527.82 69.98 262/358 2-4
321 Oklahoma-B 0 524.79 108.45 193/372 2-9
322 Dickinson 0 512.3 64.88 281/356 5-7
323 California-Irvine 0 506.27 45.77 287/348 6-10
324 American 0 501.81 78.51 255/369 3-13
325 Marquette-B 0 500.18 89.63 264/362 2-9
326 Wright State 0 491.16 115.92 237/375 2-5
327 Western Michigan 0 487.57 77.6 271/366 3-8
328 William & Mary-B 0 485.45 89.46 263/368 5-8
329 Sam Houston State 0 482.48 91.6 261/373 4-8
330 Southern Illinois-Edwardsville 0 476.79 67.99 283/362 5-7
331 California-San Diego-B 0 475.68 49.82 286/354 6-9
332 Dallas 0 468.96 168.24 210/391 2-3
333 Northwestern-B 0 458.9 59.82 297/370 6-13
334 San Jose State 0 448.54 84.48 278/376 2-7
335 Trine 0 447.9 128.01 234/390 1-5
336 Villanova-B 0 442.64 98.03 272/383 2-3
337 Illinois-Chicago 0 431.2 92.18 271/375 5-8
338 Miami 0 422.51 63.3 299/364 3-8
339 Wisconsin-Oshkosh 0 416.37 62.66 292/371 4-9
340 Texas State -B 0 415.34 85.2 281/373 4-12
341 Minnesota-C 0 411.26 48.65 306/363 1-9
342 Central Florida-B 0 400.1 59.12 292/369 5-9
343 Texas-B 0 391.24 97.39 285/384 4-6
344 Notre Dame-B 0 381.85 89.34 276/382 5-6
345 Kentucky-B 0 370.93 99.02 289/382 4-8
346 Rutgers-B 0 362.59 91.96 297/384 8-8
347 Edinboro 0 360.23 59.84 312/377 3-13
348 Millersville 0 358.09 66.67 296/376 2-6
349 Vermont-B 0 354.75 100 272/388 4-2
350 Indiana Wesleyan 0 353.42 83.71 304/382 2-9
351 Stetson 0 353.38 75.42 288/381 5-10
352 Houston 0 349.7 96.8 284/387 2-4
353 Case Western Reserve-B 0 330.75 82.98 304/384 2-8
354 Southern Methodist 0 326.65 127.47 270/392 3-8
355 Air Force-B 0 306.13 68.42 317/384 2-10
356 Washington-C 0 303.69 97.51 298/389 3-9
357 Pennsylvania-B 0 301.53 100.64 292/388 7-6
358 Southern Indiana 0 287.49 93.28 312/391 1-10
359 Arizona-B 0 280.79 53.45 338/380 4-8
360 Cornell-B 0 274.9 81.45 311/390 5-13
361 John Carroll 0 272.41 98.09 307/392 1-5
362 Susquehanna 0 267.6 106.69 286/393 4-6
363 North Texas-B 0 260.18 85.25 315/392 3-9
364 California-San Diego-C 0 259.32 144.38 260/397 2-3
365 SUNY-Binghamton-B 0 251.31 95.45 313/393 4-8
366 SUNY-Albany-B 0 240.49 107.25 289/394 3-9
367 Texas-Arlington 0 228.31 151.33 267/397 1-4
368 Seattle 0 228.07 119.57 281/397 1-4
369 Arizona State-C 0 221.92 89.11 311/392 1-6
370 Denison 0 220.65 75.12 331/390 3-2
371 Oregon State-B 0 203 117.68 307/395 3-7
372 Texas-El Paso 0 190.26 133.43 298/396 1-6
373 Alabama-Huntsville-B 0 190.11 108.65 315/394 0-10
374 Colorado School of Mines - B 0 187.01 79.88 341/392 4-11
375 California-Santa Barbara-B 0 184.86 68.31 344/391 2-4
376 Texas-Dallas-B 0 163.11 86.75 338/394 0-13
377 Maryland-Baltimore County-B 0 160.34 48.19 353/391 4-3
378 Eastern Illinois 0 159.97 61.82 348/391 1-12
379 Siena 0 148.57 80.72 331/395 5-8
380 UCLA-B 0 131.49 104.83 336/398 3-4
381 Florida Tech-B 0 128.75 60.59 349/393 3-11
382 Temple-B 0 124.91 66.91 352/394 4-9
383 Georgetown-B 0 101.6 67.26 355/395 4-9
384 South Florida-B 0 100.43 68.45 348/395 2-13
385 Carthage College 0 76.33 115.39 338/397 0-6
386 Saint Joseph's 0 67.09 142.27 324/401 3-2
387 Coe 0 35.35 89.45 352/397 2-11
388 Cal State-Fullerton 0 20.63 61.43 362/398 1-6
389 Sacred Heart 0 7.92 113.4 343/400 1-9
390 Wisconsin-Stout 0 3.93 127.95 338/401 1-6
391 American-B 0 -27.16 68.16 368/398 3-11
392 Columbus State 0 -28.42 117.58 346/402 0-12
393 Texas A&M-C 0 -64.21 160.87 336/404 0-6
394 Cal Poly-SLO-C 0 -80.16 93.53 373/404 1-6
395 Southern California-B 0 -210.29 80.69 385/403 2-11
396 Yale-B 0 -213.49 93.95 384/403 2-12
397 Towson -B 0 -227.79 127.27 372/404 3-10
398 St Mary's (Maryland) 0 -232.37 119.42 379/404 2-4
399 Rhode Island-B 0 -290.77 49.15 394/404 3-3
400 Lancaster Bible 0 -374.16 91.78 392/404 2-9
401 Pacific Lutheran-B 0 -388.41 180.57 376/404 0-5
402 SUNY Oneonta-B 0 -400.84 142.57 388/404 2-9
403 Rensselaer Polytech-B 0 -445.91 53.25 395/404 0-5
404 California-Irvine-B 0 -587.01 212.41 388/404 0-7

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)