College Men's Probabilistic Bid Allocation
2025-26 Season

Overall Bid Allocation | Step-by-Step Breakdown | Team Statistics | Probabilistic FAQ

Overall Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
2 Atlantic Coast 2.19 North Carolina 100.00%,   North Carolina-Wilmington 45.90%,   Clemson 30.00%,   Georgetown 30.00%,   Virginia 6.20%,   Maryland 4.60%,   North Carolina State 1.70%,   Virginia Tech 1.00%,  
2 Great Lakes 1.54 Michigan 75.60%,   Southern Illinois-Edwardsville 69.00%,   Indiana 7.40%,   Illinois 1.70%,   Chicago 0.20%,  
1 Metro East 0.00
3 New England 3.03 Brown 100.00%,   Massachusetts 100.00%,   Vermont 87.10%,   McGill 14.70%,   Northeastern 1.40%,   Tufts 0.20%,  
2 North Central 1.90 Carleton College 100.00%,   Minnesota 66.10%,   Wisconsin 23.50%,  
5 Northwest 5.51 Victoria 100.00%,   Oregon 100.00%,   Oregon State 99.20%,   British Columbia 96.40%,   Washington 67.60%,   Western Washington 47.00%,   Utah Valley 23.10%,   Utah 13.80%,   Brigham Young 3.40%,   Utah State 0.80%,  
1 Ohio Valley 0.99 Pittsburgh 84.60%,   Penn State 14.70%,  
1 South Central 1.41 Colorado 100.00%,   Texas 29.70%,   Colorado State 11.10%,  
1 Southeast 1.19 Miami (Florida) 98.50%,   Tulane 10.60%,   Georgia Tech 4.20%,   Vanderbilt 3.50%,   Tennessee 2.70%,  
2 Southwest 2.23 California-Santa Cruz 100.00%,   Cal Poly-SLO 99.50%,   California 13.50%,   UCLA 8.70%,   Stanford 0.90%,   California-San Diego 0.20%,  

Step-by-Step Breakdown

Region AC GL ME NE NC NW OV SC SE SW
Initial 2.194 1.539 0.000 3.034 1.896 5.513 0.993 1.408 1.195 2.228
Autos (all @ 1) 1.194 0.539 -1.000 2.034 0.896 4.513 -0.007 0.408 0.195 1.228
Northwest (@ 2) 1.194 0.539 -1.000 2.034 0.896 3.513 -0.007 0.408 0.195 1.228
Northwest (@ 3) 1.194 0.539 -1.000 2.034 0.896 2.513 -0.007 0.408 0.195 1.228
Northwest (@ 4) 1.194 0.539 -1.000 2.034 0.896 1.513 -0.007 0.408 0.195 1.228
New England (@ 2) 1.194 0.539 -1.000 1.034 0.896 1.513 -0.007 0.408 0.195 1.228
Northwest (@ 5) 1.194 0.539 -1.000 1.034 0.896 0.513 -0.007 0.408 0.195 1.228
Southwest (@ 2) 1.194 0.539 -1.000 1.034 0.896 0.513 -0.007 0.408 0.195 0.228
Atlantic Coast (@ 2) 0.194 0.539 -1.000 1.034 0.896 0.513 -0.007 0.408 0.195 0.228
New England (@ 3) 0.194 0.539 -1.000 0.034 0.896 0.513 -0.007 0.408 0.195 0.228
North Central (@ 2) 0.194 0.539 -1.000 0.034 -0.104 0.513 -0.007 0.408 0.195 0.228
Great Lakes (@ 2) 0.194 -0.461 -1.000 0.034 -0.104 0.513 -0.007 0.408 0.195 0.228
Total 2 2 1 3 2 5 1 1 1 2

Team Statistics (Sorted by bid fraction)

Rank Team Bid Fraction Rating Uncertainty High Sim Low Sim Record
1 Oregon 1 2134.10 125.67 1 9 12-0
2 Carleton College 1 1946.93 73.66 1 11 8-0
3 Massachusetts 1 1931.99 102.60 1 17 7-1
4 Colorado 1 1851.22 72.97 1 18 6-1
5 North Carolina 1 1795.29 85.20 1 19 9-0
6 Victoria 1 1768.27 63.38 2 18 11-3
7 California-Santa Cruz 1 1754.71 52.98 3 18 10-3
8 Brown 1 1752.90 61.11 2 20 7-1
9 Cal Poly-SLO 0.995 1657.55 58.53 4 25 9-6
10 Oregon State 0.992 1714.52 92.52 2 36 8-5
11 Miami (Florida) 0.985 1660.05 64.25 3 25 6-0
12 British Columbia 0.964 1636.23 73.90 4 33 5-1
13 Vermont 0.871 1653.86 131.53 2 52 7-1
14 Pittsburgh 0.846 1615.74 107.93 2 54 5-3
15 Michigan 0.756 1573.05 100.28 4 43 5-3
16 Southern Illinois-Edwardsville 0.69 1603.14 182.26 1 61 7-0
17 Washington 0.676 1542.41 74.52 6 41 7-8
18 Minnesota 0.661 1552.61 100.85 4 47 7-1
19 Western Washington 0.47 1489.26 208.64 1 88 4-2
20 North Carolina-Wilmington 0.459 1503.15 76.29 9 46 6-1
21 Georgetown 0.3 1464.92 78.68 10 52 6-2
22 Clemson 0.3 1418.50 159.00 2 74 5-2
23 Texas 0.297 1465.85 67.38 11 50 5-3
24 Wisconsin 0.235 1431.65 113.91 9 61 6-2
25 Utah Valley 0.231 1442.69 86.83 10 55 7-7
26 McGill 0.147 1388.15 106.24 8 67 4-4
27 Penn State 0.147 1378.13 126.27 9 70 6-2
28 Utah 0.138 1433.54 66.25 10 56 8-7
29 California 0.135 1401.17 99.39 10 60 5-8
30 Colorado State 0.111 1367.00 111.48 5 68 3-4
31 Tulane 0.106 1385.85 107.23 10 63 3-4
32 UCLA 0.087 1397.72 75.77 12 58 13-7
33 Indiana 0.074 1393.30 82.68 13 59 5-1
34 Virginia 0.062 1383.01 83.13 10 57 10-5
35 Maryland 0.046 1368.65 83.45 14 64 4-4
36 Georgia Tech 0.042 1354.20 83.96 14 63 3-4
37 Vanderbilt 0.035 1273.68 126.42 10 78 5-2
38 Brigham Young 0.034 1384.12 68.28 14 54 6-7
39 Tennessee 0.027 1277.08 113.51 14 77 4-4
40 Illinois 0.017 1375.44 57.54 18 56 5-3
41 North Carolina State 0.017 1350.96 75.41 15 60 5-2
42 Northeastern 0.014 1277.71 99.45 13 73 4-4
43 Virginia Tech 0.01 1263.95 99.99 13 73 4-4
44 Stanford 0.009 1307.80 80.03 17 64 5-9
45 Utah State 0.008 1307.49 78.17 15 64 5-3
46 Chicago 0.002 1331.19 67.24 20 56 10-5
47 Tufts 0.002 1289.81 73.82 18 62 7-7
48 California-San Diego 0.002 1252.99 87.91 17 79 4-9
49 Middlebury 0 1443.43 94.59 4 59 6-2
50 Davenport 0 1375.16 79.66 12 58 4-3
51 Embry-Riddle 0 1345.90 71.96 13 60 11-3
52 Elon 0 1259.26 0.00 41 54 1-1
53 Mississippi State 0 1199.44 65.46 32 68 3-3
54 California-Santa Barbara 0 1194.48 75.28 26 76 3-11
55 Oklahoma Christian 0 1166.78 101.81 28 90 3-5
56 Ave Maria 0 1158.83 115.79 16 88 3-5
57 Lewis & Clark 0 1148.79 123.98 16 96 5-1
58 Ave Maria-B 0 1141.09 123.21 22 99 7-7
59 Cincinnati 0 1129.70 91.77 35 81 4-4
60 Emory 0 1106.95 59.04 43 74 3-5
61 Carleton College-CHOP 0 1081.58 73.00 43 84 9-2
62 Purdue 0 1070.28 46.79 50 76 3-5
63 California-Irvine 0 1049.80 76.62 44 90 11-6
64 Yale 0 1048.82 73.35 44 87 7-7
65 Cornell 0 1023.90 95.05 39 95 3-5
66 Washington University 0 1014.98 57.69 54 87 4-4
67 Florida 0 980.57 66.13 54 91 2-6
68 William & Mary 0 972.64 80.40 51 100 3-3
69 Alabama 0 968.86 89.88 50 100 2-4
70 Arizona State 0 965.09 108.46 42 99 8-4
71 Florida State 0 960.37 103.11 50 103 3-5
72 Alabama-Huntsville 0 958.58 51.27 55 89 4-10
73 Georgia 0 937.32 99.53 49 102 3-5
74 North Carolina-Charlotte 0 934.16 69.59 55 96 6-9
75 Santa Clara 0 921.65 62.93 56 96 5-7
76 James Madison 0 905.82 65.48 56 102 2-4
77 Southern California 0 884.84 68.00 56 102 9-8
78 Macalester 0 874.00 65.90 61 102 7-4
79 Whitman 0 847.83 113.55 51 108 4-2
80 Tennessee-Chattanooga 0 847.56 92.67 57 103 2-4
81 North Florida 0 842.51 118.01 52 107 5-8
82 Colorado Mines 0 838.58 107.19 50 105 8-4
83 Claremont 0 833.38 85.77 57 104 8-5
84 Temple 0 833.28 104.19 56 108 1-4
85 Kennesaw State 0 829.16 74.19 61 103 2-4
86 Auburn 0 828.72 86.78 61 105 2-6
87 Duke 0 826.72 184.28 26 115 1-1
88 Colorado College 0 820.10 124.07 45 110 3-3
89 Texas A&M 0 811.53 103.40 57 108 2-6
90 Grand Canyon 0 806.96 79.59 63 107 8-4
91 Denver 0 793.40 69.79 65 107 10-3
92 Alabama-Birmingham 0 788.30 72.85 60 106 2-5
93 Case Western Reserve 0 776.90 77.70 67 106 1-5
94 San Diego State 0 776.49 68.00 64 104 5-7
95 Notre Dame 0 772.43 91.22 63 107 1-4
96 Appalachian State 0 769.73 125.91 56 110 1-4
97 Berry 0 767.35 68.29 71 105 2-6
98 Northwestern 0 741.46 115.57 55 109 1-7
99 Florida Tech 0 710.03 140.59 58 116 3-7
100 Minnesota-B 0 676.57 90.44 68 112 3-2
101 St Olaf 0 669.97 81.80 72 111 3-2
102 South Florida 0 660.55 87.71 67 111 2-6
103 Portland 0 618.33 108.20 67 118 7-7
104 Jacksonville State 0 602.44 71.16 83 111 1-5
105 Gonzaga 0 556.51 60.26 93 112 2-4
106 Puget Sound 0 542.06 108.93 82 116 2-4
107 Minnesota-Duluth 0 485.75 75.82 96 115 1-4
108 San Jose State 0 450.06 72.14 99 116 4-9
109 South Carolina 0 421.61 193.76 70 120 0-6
110 Chico State 0 352.59 76.82 102 119 8-5
111 California-Davis 0 352.56 95.24 99 118 2-4
112 Wisconsin-Eau Claire 0 328.72 68.14 105 118 0-5
113 Loyola Marymount 0 292.81 117.83 97 119 3-4
114 Cal Poly-Humboldt 0 286.99 63.13 107 119 5-7
115 California-Santa Barbara-B 0 255.26 140.14 100 120 2-4
116 Arizona 0 216.79 67.34 109 119 2-4
117 Central Florida 0 205.71 145.10 101 120 0-8
118 Northern Arizona 0 183.68 45.94 110 119 1-4
119 Portland State 0 -88.42 197.86 106 120 0-5
120 Nevada-Reno 0 -307.19 147.71 116 120 1-5