Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2024-25 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
1 Atlantic Coast 1.08 North Carolina 99.80%,   William & Mary 5.30%,   Virginia 1.60%,   South Carolina 0.80%,   Maryland 0.20%,   North Carolina State 0.10%,  
1 Great Lakes 0.73 Chicago 70.20%,   Illinois 1.50%,   Michigan 1.00%,  
1 Metro East 0
3 New England 3.47 Massachusetts 100.00%,   Northeastern 99.30%,   Tufts 97.30%,   Brown 26.50%,   Vermont 23.50%,  
1 North Central 1.27 Carleton College 99.90%,   Minnesota 16.00%,   Wisconsin 10.70%,  
5 Northwest 5.04 Oregon 100.00%,   Washington 100.00%,   Brigham Young 100.00%,   Oregon State 97.90%,   British Columbia 49.90%,   Utah 31.20%,   Utah Valley 20.40%,   Utah State 3.00%,   Victoria 2.10%,  
1 Ohio Valley 0.71 Penn State 42.20%,   Pittsburgh 28.40%,   Case Western Reserve 0.10%,  
3 South Central 3.34 Texas 98.50%,   Colorado 95.80%,   Washington University 71.60%,   North Texas 68.10%,   Baylor 0.10%,  
1 Southeast 1.44 Georgia 92.30%,   Georgia Tech 50.80%,   Tulane 0.90%,   Emory 0.20%,  
3 Southwest 2.93 Cal Poly-SLO 100.00%,   California 98.20%,   California-Santa Cruz 94.30%,   California-San Diego 0.30%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region AC GL ME NE NC NW OV SC SE SW
Initial 1.078 0.727 0.000 3.466 1.266 5.045 0.707 3.341 1.442 2.928
Autos (all @ 1) 0.078 -0.273 -1.000 2.466 0.266 4.045 -0.293 2.341 0.442 1.928
Northwest (@ 2) 0.078 -0.273 -1.000 2.466 0.266 3.045 -0.293 2.341 0.442 1.928
Northwest (@ 3) 0.078 -0.273 -1.000 2.466 0.266 2.045 -0.293 2.341 0.442 1.928
New England (@ 2) 0.078 -0.273 -1.000 1.466 0.266 2.045 -0.293 2.341 0.442 1.928
South Central (@ 2) 0.078 -0.273 -1.000 1.466 0.266 2.045 -0.293 1.341 0.442 1.928
Northwest (@ 4) 0.078 -0.273 -1.000 1.466 0.266 1.045 -0.293 1.341 0.442 1.928
Southwest (@ 2) 0.078 -0.273 -1.000 1.466 0.266 1.045 -0.293 1.341 0.442 0.928
New England (@ 3) 0.078 -0.273 -1.000 0.466 0.266 1.045 -0.293 1.341 0.442 0.928
South Central (@ 3) 0.078 -0.273 -1.000 0.466 0.266 1.045 -0.293 0.341 0.442 0.928
Northwest (@ 5) 0.078 -0.273 -1.000 0.466 0.266 0.045 -0.293 0.341 0.442 0.928
Southwest (@ 3) 0.078 -0.273 -1.000 0.466 0.266 0.045 -0.293 0.341 0.442 -0.072
Total 1 1 1 3 1 5 1 3 1 3

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 Oregon 1 2000.35 128.01 1/21 14-0
2 Washington 1 1907.11 61.9 1/15 10-4
3 Brigham Young 1 1903.19 45.72 1/13 13-1
4 Cal Poly-SLO 1 1902.5 72.71 1/19 12-2
5 Massachusetts 1 1871.26 59.88 1/21 6-2
6 Carleton College 0.999 1989.16 107.29 1/22 8-0
7 North Carolina 0.998 1828.15 62.39 1/22 10-1
8 Northeastern 0.993 1823.4 90.03 1/27 5-4
9 Texas 0.985 1805.56 91.31 1/27 6-2
10 California 0.982 1762.78 70.12 2/26 9-5
11 Oregon State 0.979 1732.03 59.76 4/31 10-5
12 Tufts 0.973 1837.36 124.71 1/45 4-1
13 Colorado 0.958 1739.11 79.82 2/31 5-3
14 California-Santa Cruz 0.943 1700.54 64.35 5/30 8-6
15 Georgia 0.923 1728.19 92.94 1/33 5-2
16 Washington University 0.716 1641.47 68.7 8/40 8-5
17 Chicago 0.702 1658.71 125.6 1/52 4-1
18 North Texas 0.681 1650.48 125.45 1/60 6-0
19 Georgia Tech 0.508 1602.49 119.23 2/60 5-1
20 British Columbia 0.499 1601.51 119.63 3/65 3-2
21 Penn State 0.422 1583.1 102.15 5/54 4-1
22 Utah 0.312 1574.11 66.96 9/44 7-6
23 Pittsburgh 0.284 1565.06 75.5 10/45 4-4
24 Brown 0.265 1531.36 112.38 5/58 5-3
25 Vermont 0.235 1528.76 102.05 9/58 3-5
26 Utah Valley 0.204 1491.76 135.69 8/80 3-2
27 Minnesota 0.16 1520.46 84.4 11/53 4-4
28 Wisconsin 0.107 1477.6 95.34 10/63 5-3
29 William & Mary 0.053 1417.78 108.42 13/76 9-3
30 Utah State 0.03 1490.27 54.42 17/49 4-4
31 Victoria 0.021 1439.05 85.44 15/64 7-7
32 Virginia 0.016 1353.56 110.61 12/87 4-2
33 Illinois 0.015 1276.51 150.55 12/100 1-4
34 Michigan 0.01 1428.24 65.9 18/57 5-2
35 Tulane 0.009 1342.67 108.78 15/83 3-4
36 South Carolina 0.008 1424.74 75.71 19/61 9-2
37 California-San Diego 0.003 1348.17 78.64 20/72 2-9
38 Maryland 0.002 1406.56 60.29 19/58 7-4
39 Emory 0.002 1395.11 85.98 18/63 4-4
40 North Carolina State 0.001 1404.71 45.98 20/54 7-4
41 Baylor 0.001 1346.18 80.42 20/70 4-1
42 Case Western Reserve 0.001 1303.89 95.84 19/85 3-3
43 Davenport 0 1688.23 76.26 3/35 3-0
44 Lewis & Clark 0 1486.72 116.54 5/77 5-1
45 Colorado College 0 1444.61 115.81 6/67 5-1
46 Whitman 0 1421.49 78.42 18/68 5-1
47 Virginia Tech 0 1407.75 54.25 22/56 5-3
48 Stanford 0 1375.63 52.11 27/59 10-8
49 Western Washington 0 1330.3 75.45 24/68 3-3
50 California-Santa Barbara 0 1325.4 55.28 25/67 3-11
51 Colorado State 0 1324.07 76.43 24/70 3-8
52 Elon 0 1271.14 73.69 28/77 9-3
53 McGill 0 1265.95 59.28 32/75 3-5
54 Oberlin 0 1243.47 34.55 44/68 2-1
55 Grand Canyon 0 1216.94 101.61 25/96 11-1
56 Indiana 0 1209.11 86.42 31/88 6-0
57 Alabama-Huntsville 0 1196.65 66.15 36/87 4-8
58 Purdue 0 1181.23 81.76 32/90 5-8
59 Auburn 0 1181.19 116.19 29/107 2-3
60 Florida 0 1179.69 54.49 42/84 2-6
61 Cornell 0 1175.23 73.83 37/93 4-4
62 UCLA 0 1170.49 83.96 29/95 3-9
63 North Carolina-Wilmington 0 1159.73 68.61 44/91 5-6
64 Liberty 0 1156.26 81.81 34/92 3-2
65 Colorado-B 0 1151.77 158.25 14/121 6-0
66 Duke 0 1146.91 89.85 31/99 3-3
67 Texas A&M 0 1131.72 93.03 33/107 3-5
68 Tennessee 0 1130.93 117.48 29/112 2-3
69 Southern California 0 1121.25 80.01 39/97 9-2
70 Carleton College-CHOP 0 1120.05 73.98 47/97 8-3
71 Dartmouth 0 1103.67 68.9 45/100 4-3
72 Cincinnati 0 1093.72 79.45 44/100 5-1
73 Puget Sound 0 1083.3 103.59 35/107 3-3
74 Trinity 0 1074.64 38.36 57/91 4-3
75 Texas Tech 0 1063.17 48.35 53/94 4-3
76 Colorado Mines 0 1042.73 110.14 43/117 3-3
77 James Madison 0 1037.45 58.93 56/103 6-5
78 Claremont 0 1034.16 136.91 32/121 3-3
79 Carnegie Mellon 0 1028.28 71.91 52/105 6-5
80 Texas State 0 1026.78 71.74 50/108 3-2
81 Cal Poly-SLO-B 0 1024.65 72.5 52/104 8-5
82 Georgetown 0 1001.34 48.71 64/105 1-5
83 Yale 0 991.34 90.54 52/115 7-5
84 North Carolina-Charlotte 0 974.38 85.49 53/120 2-9
85 Richmond 0 972.73 87.63 51/117 5-3
86 Oklahoma 0 964.33 41.14 68/102 3-3
87 San Diego State 0 959.3 61.97 58/107 14-4
88 Alabama 0 947.88 98.83 57/129 7-6
89 Central Florida 0 940.23 85.2 56/121 1-7
90 Southern Illinois-Edwardsville 0 936.21 64.43 65/112 4-2
91 California-Irvine 0 931.06 82.87 57/122 5-6
92 Vermont-B 0 920.43 113.33 56/125 4-4
93 Berry 0 913.54 94.77 55/121 13-2
94 South Florida 0 912.36 74.29 63/117 1-7
95 West Virginia 0 886.73 102.8 61/131 2-2
96 Santa Clara 0 879.87 102.58 51/129 3-2
97 Texas-San Antonio 0 873.11 75.78 73/122 1-4
98 Ohio State 0 865.89 91.6 63/126 2-4
99 San Jose State 0 863.84 73.7 68/123 5-5
100 Mississippi State 0 841.41 57.41 78/121 11-3
101 Temple 0 836.77 97.34 63/132 1-5
102 Tennessee-Chattanooga 0 836.3 95.87 64/131 5-2
103 Washington-B 0 836.09 44.75 82/115 4-1
104 Missouri S&T 0 820.98 164.2 43/156 5-1
105 Denver 0 813.44 89.49 70/129 8-3
106 Davidson 0 811.32 74.55 79/129 3-2
107 Air Force 0 763.55 98.53 78/139 2-4
108 Cal Poly-Humboldt 0 762.08 95.79 69/137 7-4
109 George Mason 0 747.77 90.57 82/133 2-4
110 California-Santa Cruz-B 0 745.44 72.08 79/132 6-4
111 Arizona State 0 713.56 55.4 91/130 2-3
112 North Carolina State-B 0 690.5 69.79 90/135 1-3
113 Florida State 0 686.28 117.36 76/151 0-8
114 Pittsburgh-B 0 684.93 74.89 84/138 3-2
115 California-Davis 0 683.93 114.54 82/147 1-12
116 St Olaf 0 673.49 88.96 88/143 3-2
117 Boston University 0 668.35 107.29 87/149 4-3
118 RIT 0 666.98 89.09 88/142 3-4
119 Ohio 0 661.1 66.9 98/138 4-2
120 Appalachian State 0 649.8 94.98 86/147 0-6
121 Clemson 0 639.28 96.5 90/150 5-2
122 Oregon State-B 0 638.74 37.12 108/132 3-3
123 Arizona 0 629.02 61.94 104/141 7-5
124 Alabama-Birmingham 0 607.88 54.12 106/141 4-3
125 Macalester 0 598.21 48.32 110/138 4-1
126 Kennesaw State 0 592.07 91.3 93/150 3-4
127 Rice 0 577.34 107.18 83/155 1-4
128 Nevada-Reno 0 564.58 68.9 98/149 2-3
129 Union (Tennessee) 0 557.83 58.79 100/147 5-9
130 Johns Hopkins 0 542.67 103.14 101/156 2-4
131 LSU 0 534.44 100.1 96/155 4-4
132 Brigham Young-B 0 532.54 77.1 101/154 2-3
133 Connecticut 0 498.9 106.23 104/156 4-0
134 Christopher Newport 0 481.67 87.26 108/156 2-5
135 Reed 0 479.08 92.85 108/156 1-5
136 Vanderbilt 0 474.87 109.04 103/162 3-4
137 American 0 459.54 64.31 117/152 1-5
138 California-Santa Barbara-B 0 458.32 41.74 125/151 2-4
139 Portland 0 417.53 45.8 129/152 2-4
140 Wisconsin-Eau Claire 0 415.55 52.78 127/154 2-3
141 Saint Louis 0 407.69 73.98 116/159 2-5
142 Chico State 0 407.01 115.18 108/161 1-3
143 UCLA-B 0 401.62 116.58 106/166 3-7
144 East Carolina 0 391.61 105.54 114/163 2-5
145 Pacific Lutheran 0 359.71 84.93 112/160 0-6
146 Northern Arizona 0 356.56 38.97 134/155 2-3
147 California-B 0 356.51 66.33 127/159 3-8
148 Loyola Marymount 0 356.37 67.12 125/159 3-8
149 Minnesota-B 0 346.44 75.47 123/160 1-4
150 South Carolina-B 0 330.09 110.77 113/166 0-3
151 Lehigh 0 303.74 50.53 138/159 3-1
152 Pennsylvania 0 282.37 98.4 123/168 3-8
153 Jacksonville State 0 268.31 99.26 126/166 2-5
154 Columbia 0 265.89 94.91 129/166 3-1
155 Grand Canyon-B 0 257.51 86.58 123/167 2-4
156 North Carolina-B 0 150.84 126.51 120/173 1-5
157 Virginia Commonwealth 0 145.06 107.9 132/171 0-5
158 Michigan-B 0 95.67 83.9 141/171 1-5
159 Portland State 0 89.06 220.86 102/174 0-6
160 Syracuse 0 79.75 155.59 130/174 1-3
161 Illinois-B 0 72.3 140.11 133/173 1-5
162 California-San Diego-B 0 69.66 107.23 143/173 2-4
163 San Diego State-B 0 64.24 97.22 145/173 0-5
164 Alabama-B 0 63.15 82.59 150/172 2-5
165 NYU 0 27.03 126.27 135/174 2-2
166 Princeton 0 -1.96 96.79 151/174 2-2
167 Minnesota-C 0 -91.58 133.31 149/174 0-5
168 Cal Poly-SLO-C 0 -125.27 164.36 143/174 0-5
169 Harding 0 -142.24 79.16 160/174 3-10
170 Rutgers 0 -193.16 51.13 163/174 0-4
171 Denver-B 0 -209.91 146.58 152/174 0-5
172 Navy 0 -217.98 235.17 113/174 0-5
173 Arizona State-B 0 -291.95 207.38 121/174 0-5
174 Mississippi State-B 0 -410.82 199.15 148/174 0-6

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)