Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2018-19 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
2 Atlantic Coast 2.41 North Carolina 100.00%,   North Carolina-Wilmington 51.00%,   North Carolina State 47.60%,   William & Mary 30.60%,   South Carolina 9.20%,   James Madison 3.00%,  
1 Great Lakes 0.61 Michigan 59.50%,   Northwestern 0.70%,   Notre Dame 0.70%,  
1 Metro East 0
3 New England 2.92 Massachusetts 100.00%,   Brown 97.10%,   Tufts 62.70%,   Vermont 28.70%,   Dartmouth 3.10%,  
2 North Central 2.01 Minnesota 99.90%,   Carleton College-CUT 99.90%,   Wisconsin 1.60%,  
4 Northwest 4.53 Oregon 100.00%,   Washington 100.00%,   Brigham Young 100.00%,   British Columbia 97.50%,   Oregon State 50.20%,   Western Washington 3.90%,   Utah State 0.90%,  
2 Ohio Valley 2.12 Ohio State 100.00%,   Pittsburgh 99.90%,   Miami (Ohio) 11.60%,  
2 South Central 1.93 Colorado 100.00%,   Colorado State 87.40%,   Texas-Dallas 3.50%,   Texas 2.00%,   Oklahoma State 0.20%,  
1 Southeast 0.7 Georgia 39.90%,   Georgia Tech 30.40%,   Tulane 0.10%,  
2 Southwest 2.77 Cal Poly-SLO 100.00%,   California 88.70%,   UCLA 83.50%,   California-Santa Barbara 4.20%,   Arizona 0.50%,   California-Santa Cruz 0.20%,   California-San Diego 0.10%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region AC GL ME NE NC NW OV SC SE SW
Initial 2.414 0.609 0.000 2.916 2.014 4.525 2.115 1.931 0.704 2.772
Autos (all @ 1) 1.414 -0.391 -1.000 1.916 1.014 3.525 1.115 0.931 -0.296 1.772
Northwest (@ 2) 1.414 -0.391 -1.000 1.916 1.014 2.525 1.115 0.931 -0.296 1.772
Northwest (@ 3) 1.414 -0.391 -1.000 1.916 1.014 1.525 1.115 0.931 -0.296 1.772
New England (@ 2) 1.414 -0.391 -1.000 0.916 1.014 1.525 1.115 0.931 -0.296 1.772
Southwest (@ 2) 1.414 -0.391 -1.000 0.916 1.014 1.525 1.115 0.931 -0.296 0.772
Northwest (@ 4) 1.414 -0.391 -1.000 0.916 1.014 0.525 1.115 0.931 -0.296 0.772
Atlantic Coast (@ 2) 0.414 -0.391 -1.000 0.916 1.014 0.525 1.115 0.931 -0.296 0.772
Ohio Valley (@ 2) 0.414 -0.391 -1.000 0.916 1.014 0.525 0.115 0.931 -0.296 0.772
North Central (@ 2) 0.414 -0.391 -1.000 0.916 0.014 0.525 0.115 0.931 -0.296 0.772
South Central (@ 2) 0.414 -0.391 -1.000 0.916 0.014 0.525 0.115 -0.069 -0.296 0.772
New England (@ 3) 0.414 -0.391 -1.000 -0.084 0.014 0.525 0.115 -0.069 -0.296 0.772
Total 2 1 1 3 2 4 2 2 1 2

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 North Carolina 1 2330.39 60.32 1/5 18-0
2 Washington 1 2276.45 53.95 1/8 20-2
3 Brigham Young 1 2179.16 56.9 1/11 13-1
4 Cal Poly-SLO 1 2178.18 40.72 1/9 18-5
5 Colorado 1 2153.58 35.81 1/9 12-3
6 Oregon 1 2094.05 58.24 2/19 19-2
7 Ohio State 1 2069.2 75.86 1/20 8-3
8 Massachusetts 1 2060.26 63.55 2/17 12-4
9 Pittsburgh 0.999 2042.76 62.64 2/25 11-5
10 Carleton College-CUT 0.999 2033.63 66.34 2/22 11-5
11 Minnesota 0.999 1992.77 52.51 4/21 10-6
12 British Columbia 0.975 1934.8 56.39 6/25 8-6
13 Brown 0.971 1928.06 52.79 7/27 11-5
14 California 0.887 1886.17 48.09 8/31 8-6
15 Colorado State 0.874 1908.16 70.57 6/31 10-5
16 UCLA 0.835 1869.83 47.4 10/33 13-10
17 Tufts 0.627 1843.65 58.74 7/34 10-6
18 Michigan 0.595 1847.66 97.14 4/51 8-1
19 North Carolina-Wilmington 0.51 1824.97 43.07 11/33 11-6
20 Oregon State 0.502 1828.12 57.99 11/42 13-8
21 North Carolina State 0.476 1820.92 58.28 10/37 11-6
22 Georgia 0.399 1816.95 46.58 12/34 7-5
23 William & Mary 0.306 1788.22 71.98 9/48 8-3
24 Georgia Tech 0.304 1776.75 98.4 7/66 10-5
25 Vermont 0.287 1783.02 83.17 9/62 12-2
26 Miami (Ohio) 0.116 1617.37 167.91 5/134 11-0
27 South Carolina 0.092 1744.93 60.09 12/50 9-4
28 California-Santa Barbara 0.042 1716.49 62.84 13/59 9-14
29 Western Washington 0.039 1719.07 54.61 15/49 9-4
30 Texas-Dallas 0.035 1697.27 71.78 14/61 8-8
31 Dartmouth 0.031 1683.44 71.66 15/63 9-6
32 James Madison 0.03 1654.74 82.55 14/78 6-1
33 Texas 0.02 1698.42 58.55 15/53 9-7
34 Wisconsin 0.016 1704.95 54.76 14/47 8-8
35 Utah State 0.009 1588.6 100.6 15/112 14-0
36 Northwestern 0.007 1665.39 65.31 18/67 16-7
37 Notre Dame 0.007 1573.57 102.19 17/91 8-3
38 Arizona 0.005 1558.84 108.94 16/100 5-2
39 California-Santa Cruz 0.002 1628.84 68.6 17/64 18-9
40 Oklahoma State 0.002 1620.27 65.55 20/67 11-5
41 California-San Diego 0.001 1617.36 73.28 18/77 6-10
42 Tulane 0.001 1494.78 109.83 20/133 2-4
43 Northeastern 0 1631.35 56.24 22/63 6-10
44 Santa Clara 0 1611.92 62.77 23/64 10-5
45 Alabama 0 1600 67.89 21/72 12-5
46 Utah 0 1599.84 61.83 21/69 9-14
47 Stanford 0 1599.54 63.86 21/68 8-15
48 Auburn 0 1527.61 55.76 29/78 2-7
49 Temple 0 1502.96 66.38 31/93 5-6
50 Alabama-Huntsville 0 1500.69 74.37 26/98 10-3
51 Purdue 0 1497.38 52.16 33/83 4-8
52 Tennessee 0 1496.73 58.27 31/88 8-10
53 St Olaf 0 1493.18 74.79 29/93 3-0
54 Case Western Reserve 0 1479.67 101.38 22/112 1-5
55 California-Davis 0 1478.06 106.49 23/126 7-7
56 Virginia Tech 0 1466.95 54.9 36/92 8-8
57 Embry-Riddle 0 1457.71 157.75 12/175 7-0
58 Illinois 0 1452.91 93.1 26/118 8-6
59 Virginia 0 1452.16 87.44 30/125 6-6
60 Whitman 0 1440.12 65.72 37/107 9-10
61 LSU 0 1424.45 64.45 39/106 14-9
62 Washington University 0 1424.4 92.63 30/131 11-3
63 Florida 0 1418.86 62.11 39/108 14-9
64 Cincinnati 0 1416.63 78.94 37/121 4-5
65 Victoria 0 1409.69 77.14 34/120 2-4
66 Tennessee-Chattanooga 0 1395.9 88.27 34/131 8-5
67 Georgetown 0 1392.84 98.01 35/126 17-3
68 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0 1391.64 77.86 37/127 11-5
69 Occidental 0 1385.25 76.11 38/125 16-2
70 Texas A&M 0 1384.58 57.47 46/115 8-8
71 Middle Tennessee State 0 1377 58.1 43/119 10-3
72 Kentucky 0 1373.75 82.81 38/126 9-5
73 Lehigh 0 1372.45 65.38 44/112 9-4
74 Carnegie Mellon 0 1366.46 92.95 36/144 4-7
75 Montana State 0 1361.93 102.05 34/152 12-3
76 Nevada-Reno 0 1360.69 62.03 46/116 13-7
77 Puget Sound 0 1347.71 85.9 38/147 11-2
78 Iowa State 0 1326.05 108.77 29/171 5-3
79 Boston University 0 1325.49 82 44/136 5-2
80 Liberty 0 1321.22 96.94 44/176 9-4
81 Boston College 0 1320.57 88.48 42/146 5-2
82 North Carolina-Charlotte 0 1318.03 112.67 35/167 3-4
83 Cornell 0 1317.05 74.12 47/138 2-7
84 Penn State 0 1309.42 70.03 45/141 4-7
85 Missouri S&T 0 1307.9 77.69 48/138 16-4
86 Humboldt State 0 1307.34 69.67 53/141 6-7
87 Arizona State-B-B 0 1297.07 88.25 46/152 14-5
88 Texas State 0 1286.68 68.78 52/148 11-3
89 Claremont 0 1283.92 63.44 57/139 7-5
90 Carleton College-GoP 0 1278.33 85.34 48/158 11-9
91 Southern California 0 1270.22 72.3 56/164 4-16
92 Indiana 0 1270.12 86.62 49/154 5-8
93 Duke 0 1262.44 68.95 57/143 6-11
94 Rice 0 1260.8 111.62 34/192 9-4
95 Denver 0 1255.85 67.87 57/137 17-4
96 Connecticut 0 1245.5 81.89 51/162 7-6
97 Dayton 0 1233.66 59.36 66/153 9-4
98 Richmond 0 1232.71 66.45 61/153 7-6
99 Ave Maria 0 1231.17 77.1 56/163 6-1
100 Central Florida 0 1211.68 70.64 62/166 7-15
101 Truman State 0 1209.73 69.8 63/159 9-6
102 Vanderbilt 0 1209.68 107.75 47/190 7-5
103 Northern Arizona 0 1206.85 88.86 56/180 10-5
104 Princeton 0 1205.44 149.42 27/262 5-1
105 Gonzaga 0 1202.61 130.03 46/221 5-2
106 Kansas 0 1198.67 82.12 51/203 9-4
107 Rutgers 0 1197.67 172.33 23/255 1-3
108 Rochester 0 1192.84 101.45 51/194 5-1
109 Minnesota-C 0 1188.19 66.39 67/172 2-1
110 Ohio 0 1188.06 125.56 43/209 3-8
111 Chicago 0 1182.47 82.81 62/186 9-5
112 Washington State 0 1179.1 87.24 65/180 11-9
113 Villanova 0 1176.86 72.74 70/186 12-2
114 Maryland 0 1169.98 79.19 65/197 3-8
115 Minnesota-Duluth 0 1169.57 95.47 55/193 6-2
116 Pennsylvania 0 1169.24 43.07 84/154 2-4
117 Jacksonville State 0 1157.08 93.99 54/199 7-7
118 Marist 0 1153.44 69.83 73/168 6-0
119 Franciscan 0 1153.21 112.39 56/222 4-3
120 Appalachian State 0 1143.66 53.96 78/163 8-8
121 Navy 0 1134.33 87.99 68/197 9-5
122 Emory 0 1134.06 75.1 71/196 5-7
123 Wright State 0 1131.48 58.84 77/176 3-2
124 Arizona State 0 1130.61 131.22 48/238 5-2
125 Portland 0 1129.18 78.74 72/191 10-3
126 Virginia Commonwealth University 0 1128.39 92.56 67/202 10-3
127 Sul Ross State University 0 1127.33 122.36 53/226 7-5
128 SUNY-Binghamton 0 1123.97 79.15 64/197 7-5
129 Chico State 0 1122.43 111.87 53/218 8-6
130 Brandeis 0 1121.85 68.92 79/199 8-5
131 Clemson 0 1115.89 108.51 60/233 11-2
132 Wisconsin-Whitewater 0 1103.24 70.64 82/195 4-3
133 Florida Tech 0 1098.24 100.7 64/217 4-3
134 Johns Hopkins 0 1094.57 151.69 46/281 3-4
135 Florida-B-B 0 1093 60.18 90/195 5-2
136 Missouri 0 1092.67 53.93 94/189 16-7
137 Delaware 0 1069.28 108.32 55/228 5-1
138 Messiah 0 1066.07 52.95 101/187 3-4
139 Oklahoma 0 1063.06 82.78 87/212 8-6
140 Ball State 0 1048.2 97.99 79/226 3-3
141 North Texas 0 1043.89 82.31 76/211 11-4
142 Texas Tech 0 1043.55 83.54 76/220 10-5
143 Arkansas 0 1043.15 97.67 75/261 6-6
144 Harvard 0 1039.6 83.5 90/219 2-7
145 Washington-B 0 1038.44 91.3 63/238 4-8
146 Oberlin 0 1026.36 60.25 106/219 7-4
147 Mississippi State 0 1020.85 51.83 110/210 13-15
148 Nebraska 0 1017.59 81.13 95/221 10-5
149 Michigan State 0 1014.35 81.5 85/240 2-4
150 Wesleyan 0 1008.22 90.1 96/235 3-2
151 Sonoma State 0 1007.81 72.54 91/220 5-10
152 Brigham Young-B 0 1007.43 74.5 104/222 5-5
153 Cedarville 0 1007.25 94.93 78/252 5-0
154 George Washington 0 1006.59 68.87 95/225 6-5
155 John Brown 0 1005.19 82.54 95/228 9-5
156 Florida State 0 1003.71 61.61 111/222 7-14
157 Pacific Lutheran 0 999.44 89.83 86/235 8-3
158 North Carolina-Asheville 0 997.15 68.96 98/227 4-10
159 Colgate 0 995.41 138.86 46/267 5-1
160 Iowa 0 995.03 116.29 75/256 3-4
161 Davidson 0 993.18 88.4 94/237 9-4
162 California-Irvine 0 991.54 66.18 102/236 6-6
163 San Diego State 0 990.19 117.59 70/261 0-8
164 Georgia State 0 988.49 76.77 109/229 3-10
165 Air Force 0 982.13 81.65 94/231 8-11
166 UCLA-B 0 980.45 67.68 108/226 8-8
167 Illinois State 0 973.7 112.97 73/258 8-10
168 New Mexico 0 972.98 46.72 122/209 3-3
169 Colorado College 0 972.86 69.65 106/228 8-9
170 SUNY-Buffalo 0 971.45 155.59 57/288 5-1
171 Lewis & Clark 0 965.3 59.75 116/220 8-12
172 Luther 0 965.12 76.23 104/231 8-8
173 Shippensburg 0 960.34 140.39 56/288 5-2
174 Syracuse 0 957.14 114.45 89/275 2-5
175 South Florida 0 942.95 68.42 121/233 2-13
176 Purdue-B 0 933.51 56.94 132/224 2-3
177 Seattle 0 933.49 104.72 90/261 3-4
178 Alabama-Birmingham 0 932.4 61.05 130/236 5-8
179 Xavier 0 927.06 103.68 98/262 7-5
180 Mary Washington 0 926.51 73.02 124/237 7-6
181 North Carolina-B 0 925.83 69.11 125/245 6-7
182 Grand Canyon 0 924.73 93.97 108/257 7-7
183 SUNY-Albany 0 921.58 153.94 59/295 5-2
184 Colorado-B 0 916.83 75.92 121/244 9-9
185 Amherst College 0 916.74 66.36 127/242 11-3
186 Yale 0 911.15 67.63 124/241 12-3
187 Kenyon 0 909.19 71.31 131/247 5-2
188 California-B 0 904.29 93.58 104/286 1-3
189 Cal State-Long Beach 0 900.75 124.97 78/282 5-6
190 Utah Valley University 0 895.14 75.34 119/254 2-3
191 Loyola Marymount 0 894.41 98.09 92/266 3-6
192 Macalester 0 890.9 41.87 153/226 1-2
193 Williams 0 883.35 64.4 128/257 5-8
194 Cal Poly-Pomona 0 879.26 87.09 111/262 6-5
195 Berry 0 878.38 67.52 133/256 6-7
196 Georgia College 0 869.82 88.78 122/262 9-2
197 Montana 0 866.2 81.23 110/273 4-9
198 SUNY-Stony Brook 0 860.6 98.42 106/275 5-2
199 Kennesaw State 0 858.55 80.32 132/260 5-6
200 George Mason 0 841.41 77.32 145/258 7-7
201 Wisconsin-Eau Claire 0 838.26 93.04 126/282 5-2
202 Georgia Southern 0 836.26 68.36 142/258 9-2
203 Wisconsin-B-B 0 835.93 111.08 129/286 4-3
204 Texas Christian 0 835.08 83.26 136/268 6-7
205 California-Santa Barbara-B 0 834.01 99.12 101/287 3-4
206 American 0 830.17 60.66 160/259 10-10
207 Missouri State 0 825.18 58.04 157/254 7-8
208 Cal Poly-SLO-B 0 823.79 108.97 117/282 2-9
209 Florida State-B 0 822.46 107.9 108/301 2-4
210 Colorado-Colorado Springs 0 820.75 150.42 87/311 3-3
211 Colby 0 817.1 84.33 142/273 6-3
212 Drexel 0 816.19 75.68 133/277 4-9
213 Colorado School of Mines 0 814.15 70.54 140/269 6-6
214 Pittsburgh-B 0 812.17 89.97 135/276 2-5
215 The Ohio State University-B 0 807.62 105.84 118/288 4-3
216 Maine 0 804.9 91.27 134/282 4-4
217 Union (Tennessee) 0 804.02 61.46 144/258 4-3
218 Army 0 795.02 98.72 133/277 3-1
219 Catholic 0 789.35 124.21 116/299 3-3
220 Skidmore 0 781.34 82.41 143/279 3-1
221 California-San Diego-B 0 780.34 104.98 140/291 3-6
222 Saint Louis 0 771.7 60.91 165/265 4-10
223 Elon 0 766.06 140.95 106/328 3-3
224 Penn State-B 0 765.91 107.03 137/298 10-2
225 RIT 0 754.25 74.47 161/274 5-7
226 Kansas State 0 752.3 64.93 170/273 5-9
227 North Georgia 0 749.3 105.63 142/292 5-7
228 Michigan-B 0 746.86 61.35 165/272 4-3
229 Trinity 0 746.79 155.7 96/323 3-3
230 Oklahoma Christian 0 746.77 177.5 84/328 4-2
231 Troy 0 745.11 164.45 92/347 3-2
232 Case Western Reserve-B 0 741.76 68.17 170/281 3-3
233 Texas A&M-B 0 740.96 139.66 115/308 5-2
234 Florida Gulf Coast 0 740.01 95.96 126/298 3-3
235 Colorado State-B 0 739.97 55.46 188/270 5-9
236 Carleton College Karls 0 737.88 56.94 185/272 4-6
237 Sam Houston State 0 736.85 84.56 153/292 3-4
238 Bates College 0 719.6 252.55 42/357 1-2
239 Northwestern-B 0 719.29 55.64 190/282 5-8
240 Stevens Tech 0 718.9 54.18 191/275 4-3
241 Akron 0 716.29 61.74 186/273 7-4
242 Baylor 0 714.19 63.44 185/274 6-7
243 St. Thomas 0 713.93 117.4 130/314 2-5
244 Samford 0 711.76 55.72 192/272 4-10
245 Stephen F. Austin 0 706.39 98.73 125/301 3-4
246 Boise State 0 703.91 75.43 183/296 2-5
247 Rhode Island 0 693.04 148.23 111/328 5-3
248 Vermont-C 0 690.7 81.7 182/300 5-3
249 Wake Forest 0 685.57 103.83 157/303 6-7
250 Abilene Christian 0 683.81 83.91 167/293 3-4
251 Toledo 0 670.36 99.41 165/304 1-5
252 Christopher Newport 0 667.08 101.15 144/309 4-8
253 Ithaca 0 663.76 111.21 150/318 3-2
254 Texas-B 0 663.11 140.53 145/329 3-4
255 Bowdoin 0 662.48 215.53 93/353 1-2
256 Towson 0 655.11 86.93 174/298 4-8
257 New Hampshire 0 645.58 92.74 178/298 2-4
258 Creighton 0 642.77 163.89 94/338 4-2
259 Whitworth 0 628.94 67.78 191/305 2-4
260 East Carolina 0 619.26 68.9 206/302 9-9
261 West Chester 0 617.08 84.87 183/315 3-2
262 Caltech 0 615.76 96.72 171/307 3-4
263 Tufts-B 0 615.35 126.86 132/325 3-4
264 South Carolina-B 0 609.53 141.2 130/344 3-4
265 Northern Iowa 0 598.55 50.84 219/296 6-8
266 Massachusetts-Lowell 0 596.89 51.99 228/298 1-4
267 Georgia Tech-B 0 593.91 71.29 210/306 7-5
268 Washington University-B-B 0 581.88 63.22 217/300 4-3
269 Oregon State-B 0 567.63 39.23 244/295 7-5
270 Northeastern-B 0 563.54 118.9 185/339 3-4
271 Campbell 0 557.13 72.06 197/317 6-12
272 NYU 0 548.42 83.98 199/317 4-7
273 Rowan 0 546.41 117.75 186/335 2-3
274 Villanova-B 0 532.05 108.76 189/336 3-1
275 Maryland-B 0 526.09 110.78 190/334 9-4
276 Iowa State-B 0 521.67 127.86 193/341 3-4
277 Denison 0 515.39 150.69 165/353 0-5
278 Brown-B 0 508.38 100.8 212/341 1-4
279 MIT 0 497.83 78.61 237/323 4-8
280 Stetson 0 496.97 75.74 235/322 2-4
281 Grinnell 0 496.02 87.2 228/331 3-9
282 Southern Methodist 0 485.61 87.01 211/335 2-4
283 Knox 0 484.15 103 202/340 1-5
284 Haverford 0 484.04 93.05 225/333 5-5
285 Texas State -B 0 477.53 177.5 171/371 4-2
286 Mississippi 0 477.49 73.52 243/330 2-16
287 Texas-San Antonio 0 466.7 68 243/323 3-8
288 Salisbury 0 460.62 100.74 217/342 1-4
289 Cal State-Fullerton 0 460.09 96.54 212/333 1-4
290 College of New Jersey 0 448.66 93.02 224/339 2-5
291 Butler 0 447.86 91.29 233/334 2-5
292 Colorado Mesa University 0 444.84 42.9 264/321 4-8
293 Georgia-B 0 444.16 79.38 237/332 7-5
294 San Jose State 0 431.9 76.57 253/329 3-9
295 Colorado-Denver 0 430.31 70.29 253/328 2-3
296 Allegheny 0 426.93 81.87 250/338 2-3
297 Columbia 0 424.87 110.77 212/350 2-4
298 St John's 0 422.64 95.68 234/343 2-5
299 Olivet Nazarene 0 412.1 156.53 180/355 1-5
300 Virginia-B 0 411.59 106.18 229/343 3-4
301 Wooster 0 409.48 122.5 201/353 1-5
302 Wisconsin-Oshkosh 0 406.88 91.49 220/344 1-5
303 Charleston 0 395.6 68.05 257/337 4-9
304 Southern California-B 0 389.77 29.96 279/319 2-5
305 West Virginia 0 361.86 150.37 209/362 2-4
306 Slippery Rock 0 359.94 87.63 256/347 4-8
307 Dayton-B 0 353.75 81.22 263/346 2-4
308 Western Washington-B 0 348.2 72.75 271/342 2-10
309 Arkansas State 0 347.07 89.62 259/347 1-5
310 Belmont University 0 339.97 73.3 267/344 2-10
311 North Florida 0 318.87 100.12 253/350 2-10
312 Santa Clara-B 0 316.06 126.19 248/362 0-7
313 Long Beach State University-B 0 311.2 100.8 266/356 0-5
314 North Carolina State-B 0 309.67 74.41 265/346 5-8
315 Illinois-B 0 300.09 67.55 282/344 1-5
316 Fresno State 0 295.87 50.24 290/340 2-4
317 SUNY-Cortland 0 285.68 65.13 269/344 2-10
318 Tulsa 0 271.49 61.6 289/347 2-7
319 Maryland-Baltimore County 0 268.83 72.74 282/350 0-6
320 Temple-B 0 266.62 107.61 262/360 2-2
321 Sacred Heart 0 266.27 101.66 254/357 4-2
322 Hofstra 0 262.49 120.99 261/367 6-1
323 Texas-Arlington 0 251.93 65.84 283/350 3-8
324 Jefferson 0 250.23 62.08 285/350 7-4
325 Central Florida-B 0 242.87 142.38 256/370 1-5
326 Carnegie Mellon-B 0 230.41 91.23 282/364 2-9
327 Trevecca 0 223.7 83.8 279/360 1-4
328 Rutgers-B 0 222.56 91.36 278/362 6-3
329 Arizona-B 0 216 108.1 264/366 1-5
330 Dallas Baptist 0 200.42 83.5 286/359 1-5
331 Delaware-B 0 197.21 90.96 283/364 1-6
332 Cal Poly-SLO-C 0 193.07 69.97 296/357 1-6
333 High Point 0 188.87 74.94 289/361 2-9
334 Swarthmore 0 176.61 105.72 264/368 4-7
335 Nebraska-Omaha 0 155.71 71.7 298/358 0-5
336 Idaho 0 151.15 164.69 241/380 0-7
337 Washington-C 0 141.34 167.25 236/378 1-4
338 George Fox 0 137.63 108.53 291/369 4-7
339 Indiana (Pennsylvania) 0 129.07 82.34 290/366 1-9
340 California-Irvine-B 0 104.94 108.87 286/373 1-6
341 Arizona State-C 0 91 188.7 249/383 0-6
342 Connecticut-B 0 82.85 36.39 329/361 0-4
343 Wisconsin-Milwaukee-B 0 81.99 108.78 286/373 1-5
344 Rice-B 0 66.13 163.29 280/380 2-4
345 Rowan -B 0 59.02 94.5 304/370 5-3
346 Portland State 0 43.89 128.18 293/380 1-7
347 Tulane-B 0 40.38 70.71 315/367 0-5
348 University of Denver-B 0 37.43 123.13 289/375 1-4
349 North Texas-B 0 35.48 122.65 300/377 0-5
350 Alabama-B 0 6.25 136.01 294/382 1-6
351 Miami 0 6.18 178.91 266/384 0-6
352 American-B 0 2.22 94.74 320/377 10-2
353 LSU-B 0 0.52 162.17 279/382 1-6
354 Kentucky-B 0 -3.03 81.75 311/374 4-8
355 South Florida-B-B 0 -8.64 187.07 253/385 0-6
356 Colorado School of Mines-B 0 -23.15 93.22 321/373 1-11
357 Princeton-B 0 -30.48 85.15 311/377 4-2
358 Cornell-B 0 -34.88 125.26 304/379 4-2
359 Northeastern-C 0 -46.69 79.73 324/375 4-2
360 Radford 0 -48.35 150.14 263/382 2-5
361 Willamette University 0 -51 236.27 227/392 2-3
362 West Chester-B 0 -76.44 117.51 317/382 1-3
363 Coe 0 -105.57 127.96 306/383 1-6
364 Central Washington 0 -114.2 116.34 324/381 2-10
365 George Mason -B 0 -119.08 156 300/384 5-1
366 UW-Eau Claire-B 0 -133.43 181.83 278/385 0-6
367 Dickinson 0 -158.43 99.63 333/382 1-5
368 SUNY-Binghamton-B 0 -181.36 72.82 346/382 3-3
369 Texas-Dallas-B 0 -184.99 254.06 262/390 0-4
370 Edinboro 0 -185.97 123.04 318/384 0-7
371 SUNY-Fredonia 0 -212.87 80.42 347/382 2-5
372 Pacific Lutheran-B 0 -223.35 222.66 281/391 1-5
373 Lehigh-B 0 -243.24 72.43 350/382 2-3
374 Kenyon-B-B 0 -303.87 284.2 259/392 0-5
375 Lancaster Bible 0 -309.81 118.38 349/387 0-4
376 George Washington-B 0 -318.24 103.44 354/387 2-4
377 SUNY-Stony Brook-B 0 -344.3 89.03 347/385 2-5
378 Shenandoah 0 -355.78 82.84 360/385 4-2
379 Maryland-Baltimore County-B 0 -380.03 73.83 363/385 4-3
380 Pennsylvania-B 0 -387.82 69.93 367/385 2-3
381 California-San Diego-C 0 -448.71 406.15 220/392 0-4
382 SUNY-Albany-B 0 -548.07 140.65 360/392 1-5
383 Stevens Tech-B 0 -624.14 233.99 340/392 1-3
384 Goucher 0 -635.83 168.89 354/392 1-4
385 Coastal Carolina 0 -648.35 309.93 300/392 0-7
386 Yale-B 0 -669.53 91.51 376/392 1-12
387 Towson -B 0 -707.46 101.42 379/392 3-9
388 MIT-B 0 -753.34 99.5 380/392 0-6
389 Virginia Commonwealth University-B 0 -790.59 75.61 382/392 1-6
390 SUNY-Buffalo-B 0 -792.91 166.73 374/392 1-3
391 Oberlin-B 0 -854.52 196.71 360/392 0-5
392 St Mary's (Maryland) 0 -893.28 95.51 383/392 1-10

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)