Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2017-18 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
3 Atlantic Coast 3.88 North Carolina 100.00%,   North Carolina State 98.10%,   Virginia Tech 95.40%,   North Carolina-Wilmington 93.80%,   Maryland 0.80%,   South Carolina 0.10%,  
1 Great Lakes 0.01 Michigan-B 0.60%,   Illinois State 0.20%,   Northwestern 0.20%,   Michigan 0.10%,  
1 Metro East 0 Connecticut 0.10%,  
2 New England 2.1 Brown 100.00%,   Massachusetts 98.80%,   Tufts 10.70%,  
3 North Central 2.96 Carleton College 100.00%,   Minnesota 100.00%,   Wisconsin 95.00%,   Iowa 0.70%,   Marquette 0.10%,  
3 Northwest 3 Oregon 100.00%,   Washington 99.90%,   Brigham Young 76.00%,   Western Washington 11.90%,   Victoria 8.00%,   British Columbia 3.80%,  
1 Ohio Valley 1.03 Pittsburgh 99.60%,   Carnegie Mellon 3.70%,  
2 South Central 2.37 Colorado State 80.00%,   Colorado 70.50%,   Texas A&M 58.30%,   Texas-Dallas 12.30%,   Texas State 8.60%,   Texas 5.50%,   Air Force 1.40%,  
3 Southeast 3.07 Florida 96.20%,   Georgia 94.30%,   Emory 84.40%,   Georgia Tech 24.60%,   Auburn 5.40%,   LSU 1.80%,   Central Florida 0.10%,  
1 Southwest 1.59 Stanford 84.20%,   Cal Poly-SLO 72.50%,   California 1.60%,   Southern California 0.70%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region AC GL ME NE NC NW OV SC SE SW
Initial 3.882 0.011 0.001 2.095 2.958 2.996 1.033 2.366 3.068 1.590
Autos (all @ 1) 2.882 -0.989 -0.999 1.095 1.958 1.996 0.033 1.366 2.068 0.590
Atlantic Coast (@ 2) 1.882 -0.989 -0.999 1.095 1.958 1.996 0.033 1.366 2.068 0.590
Southeast (@ 2) 1.882 -0.989 -0.999 1.095 1.958 1.996 0.033 1.366 1.068 0.590
Northwest (@ 2) 1.882 -0.989 -0.999 1.095 1.958 0.996 0.033 1.366 1.068 0.590
North Central (@ 2) 1.882 -0.989 -0.999 1.095 0.958 0.996 0.033 1.366 1.068 0.590
Atlantic Coast (@ 3) 0.882 -0.989 -0.999 1.095 0.958 0.996 0.033 1.366 1.068 0.590
South Central (@ 2) 0.882 -0.989 -0.999 1.095 0.958 0.996 0.033 0.366 1.068 0.590
New England (@ 2) 0.882 -0.989 -0.999 0.095 0.958 0.996 0.033 0.366 1.068 0.590
Southeast (@ 3) 0.882 -0.989 -0.999 0.095 0.958 0.996 0.033 0.366 0.068 0.590
Northwest (@ 3) 0.882 -0.989 -0.999 0.095 0.958 -0.004 0.033 0.366 0.068 0.590
North Central (@ 3) 0.882 -0.989 -0.999 0.095 -0.042 -0.004 0.033 0.366 0.068 0.590
Total 3 1 1 2 3 3 1 2 3 1

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 North Carolina 1 2331.32 40.07 1/3 22-0
2 Carleton College 1 2214.18 56 1/6 17-2
3 Oregon 1 2174.76 37.49 1/6 20-2
4 Minnesota 1 2055.9 71.82 2/17 17-3
5 Brown 1 2032.7 58.66 2/18 15-5
6 Washington 0.999 2037.39 60.18 2/22 24-5
7 Pittsburgh 0.996 1973.45 56.14 3/23 11-6
8 Massachusetts 0.988 1949.75 64.35 2/26 13-4
9 North Carolina State 0.981 1904.84 50.13 4/24 19-8
10 Florida 0.962 1872.8 43.45 6/28 18-8
11 Virginia Tech 0.954 1909.29 62.78 4/36 14-5
12 Wisconsin 0.95 1903.11 59.46 4/26 14-7
13 Georgia 0.943 1935.26 81.28 3/31 8-5
14 North Carolina-Wilmington 0.938 1870.49 44.49 6/26 20-2
15 Emory 0.844 1906.66 108.74 2/44 8-4
16 Stanford 0.842 1871.61 73.39 4/39 13-8
17 Colorado State 0.8 1855.74 71.85 4/37 14-7
18 Brigham Young 0.76 1839.37 52.77 5/37 16-10
19 Cal Poly-SLO 0.725 1829.11 50.77 8/33 16-12
20 Colorado 0.705 1836.94 67.39 5/41 12-8
21 Texas A&M 0.583 1808.04 72.89 5/49 8-7
22 Georgia Tech 0.246 1729.94 101.28 5/79 17-4
23 Texas-Dallas 0.123 1715 72.94 10/62 18-4
24 Western Washington 0.119 1728.05 58.32 9/56 13-9
25 Tufts 0.107 1736.16 54.25 11/51 8-9
26 Texas State 0.086 1707.14 67.34 10/59 19-4
27 Victoria 0.08 1717.72 54.63 13/51 8-6
28 Texas 0.055 1697.08 67.98 11/56 9-11
29 Auburn 0.054 1695.24 63.47 9/59 11-8
30 British Columbia 0.038 1580.63 120.26 11/126 4-7
31 Carnegie Mellon 0.037 1704.63 51.46 13/51 11-8
32 LSU 0.018 1685.54 49.85 16/53 10-10
33 California 0.016 1681.79 57.15 17/62 18-16
34 Air Force 0.014 1625.56 82.65 12/83 25-1
35 Maryland 0.008 1670.26 50.61 17/58 15-10
36 Southern California 0.007 1619.88 68.51 15/77 11-11
37 Iowa 0.007 1610.79 72.32 16/78 10-5
38 Michigan-B 0.006 1401.15 163.25 15/182 12-0
39 Northwestern 0.002 1614.68 67.21 12/84 13-13
40 Illinois State 0.002 1572.14 72.72 17/96 15-10
41 Michigan 0.001 1624.29 55.48 20/80 10-9
42 Central Florida 0.001 1620.74 50.53 20/64 11-15
43 Connecticut 0.001 1581.54 67.86 20/90 14-12
44 South Carolina 0.001 1565.34 77.02 20/90 9-6
45 Marquette 0.001 1534.34 92.3 20/115 12-4
46 William & Mary 0 1634.18 48.57 21/63 23-5
47 Northeastern 0 1589.34 55.91 23/88 13-11
48 Illinois 0 1575.01 60.88 22/77 15-12
49 Iowa State 0 1554.23 71.4 22/95 10-8
50 Dartmouth 0 1551.41 67.24 22/94 14-7
51 Notre Dame 0 1525.26 57.02 28/90 11-9
52 Ohio State 0 1523.67 60.07 31/97 16-10
53 Harvard 0 1522 56.48 27/95 8-12
54 UCLA 0 1520.41 58.87 29/98 16-12
55 Mary Washington 0 1510.21 60.34 27/95 14-2
56 Oregon State 0 1504.17 36.51 38/83 11-17
57 Temple 0 1495.58 75.52 24/99 13-7
58 Whitman 0 1492.55 61.32 31/105 18-4
59 Kansas 0 1486.85 79.92 27/106 9-9
60 Santa Clara 0 1485.76 73.74 28/117 12-7
61 Cornell 0 1459.21 54.9 39/102 7-8
62 James Madison 0 1458.5 58.72 36/101 15-11
63 Vermont 0 1451.81 78.76 27/127 7-11
64 Tulane 0 1449.66 88.18 25/116 11-9
65 North Carolina-Charlotte 0 1448.48 43.06 45/100 9-5
66 California-Santa Barbara 0 1448.36 69.67 33/116 10-14
67 Kennesaw State 0 1443.99 83.08 29/128 17-5
68 Utah 0 1443.96 60.35 37/104 17-10
69 Baylor 0 1440.8 82.21 26/129 11-6
70 Carleton College-GoP 0 1435.44 64.75 36/113 15-11
71 Arkansas 0 1425.51 72.66 34/123 8-8
72 Portland 0 1409.49 85.86 35/142 12-1
73 Michigan State 0 1405.52 68.01 27/136 9-5
74 Washington University 0 1404.47 83.84 34/135 9-7
75 Tennessee-Chattanooga 0 1401.65 79.02 29/135 16-9
76 Chicago 0 1401.3 79.77 34/132 11-6
77 Georgetown 0 1401.05 38.09 54/108 15-14
78 California-Davis 0 1400.62 58.52 41/124 14-6
79 Amherst 0 1395.91 98.33 26/133 7-3
80 Florida State 0 1394.7 73.21 41/125 8-12
81 Oklahoma State 0 1393.18 60.23 43/125 14-11
82 Virginia 0 1388.12 63.81 39/120 11-11
83 Colorado College 0 1385.36 80.87 34/130 10-4
84 Duke 0 1384.96 92 34/140 9-6
85 Las Positas 0 1379.19 101.69 29/170 12-5
86 Alabama-Huntsville 0 1374.29 73.79 41/135 12-8
87 John Brown 0 1368.29 92.76 31/159 8-4
88 Northern Arizona 0 1363.6 59.94 51/126 14-6
89 Penn State 0 1359.88 55.47 48/122 7-16
90 Cincinnati 0 1349.4 60.28 51/129 6-13
91 Kentucky 0 1348.64 95.96 31/158 13-5
92 Missouri State 0 1336.48 94.21 37/149 11-2
93 Alabama 0 1333.91 49.65 51/128 17-8
94 Clemson 0 1324.02 65.54 55/135 7-11
95 Missouri S&T 0 1323.87 75.15 50/147 13-4
96 Arizona 0 1321.47 84.81 41/148 10-10
97 Minnesota-B 0 1316.13 93.15 40/159 8-1
98 Richmond 0 1312.86 59.56 48/147 10-8
99 Delaware 0 1310.16 60.64 57/130 8-6
100 Pacific Lutheran 0 1309.26 63.03 53/141 11-2
101 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0 1303.41 97.42 40/163 8-5
102 RIT 0 1301.73 93.25 39/155 8-5
103 Rutgers 0 1300.34 85.32 46/159 10-4
104 Williams 0 1282.19 57.93 63/147 11-9
105 Arizona State 0 1275.2 68.21 57/155 8-14
106 Texas Tech 0 1271.06 48.51 69/134 12-11
107 Lehigh 0 1270.06 89.2 52/176 8-7
108 Minnesota-Duluth 0 1267.05 63.93 63/153 6-6
109 Villanova 0 1262.65 70.13 54/159 11-9
110 Appalachian State 0 1260.44 75.47 45/159 12-6
111 Pennsylvania 0 1257.29 53.61 74/152 10-6
112 Mississippi State 0 1247.27 66.85 69/163 17-8
113 Puget Sound 0 1242.91 49.98 77/151 19-7
114 Tennessee 0 1241.53 81.14 48/176 13-3
115 Nebraska 0 1236.42 86.52 53/172 12-7
116 Indiana 0 1212.24 75.45 71/162 10-10
117 Georgia College 0 1201.79 75.03 66/177 11-3
118 Elon 0 1198.1 103.6 57/196 5-5
119 Montana 0 1193.05 61 78/170 7-4
120 Colorado School of Mines 0 1189.85 66.36 78/182 12-9
121 Claremont 0 1181.85 77.08 67/172 12-8
122 North Texas 0 1178.12 58.73 88/177 17-12
123 Chico State 0 1174.64 62.29 78/167 18-7
124 Case Western Reserve 0 1161.75 48.84 98/163 7-16
125 Brandeis 0 1160.84 92.06 73/199 11-8
126 Ohio 0 1160.75 56.54 96/168 2-8
127 Luther 0 1154.02 60.67 93/175 9-11
128 Florida Tech 0 1153.45 97.13 60/195 6-7
129 Boston College 0 1152.15 86.6 67/190 6-5
130 North Park 0 1149.74 93.7 63/217 9-3
131 California-San Diego 0 1146.91 51.6 99/165 6-15
132 Dayton 0 1139.51 73.65 93/186 9-3
133 Nevada-Reno 0 1135.3 39 109/158 26-16
134 Drexel 0 1135.28 71.39 80/195 7-7
135 Akron 0 1134.12 106.66 55/209 10-2
136 San Diego State 0 1133.06 71.69 88/192 13-13
137 Davidson 0 1126.84 75.72 84/191 7-11
138 North Carolina-Asheville 0 1117.06 65.1 93/188 6-11
139 George Mason 0 1102.82 72.1 94/193 7-13
140 Denver 0 1102.3 73.15 90/190 8-4
141 Xavier 0 1101.47 57.19 99/183 9-9
142 Mississippi 0 1100.54 74.33 79/191 8-5
143 Vanderbilt 0 1098.78 77.05 98/201 11-7
144 Colorado-Denver 0 1092.9 75.28 88/196 13-6
145 Lewis & Clark 0 1088.13 59.51 96/194 13-13
146 Colorado-B 0 1080.55 72.58 97/213 14-9
147 Oklahoma 0 1078.58 55.29 111/194 7-15
148 Boston University 0 1073.77 68.54 95/188 9-6
149 Saint Louis 0 1065.73 70.67 102/204 11-8
150 Wisconsin- La Crosse 0 1064.75 77.05 101/213 4-4
151 St John's 0 1059.38 95.1 87/220 1-5
152 Humboldt State 0 1052.68 86.24 90/212 9-8
153 MIT 0 1052.48 83.08 98/208 12-2
154 South Florida 0 1049.97 64.98 109/199 2-12
155 Johns Hopkins 0 1046.65 56.71 110/193 9-10
156 Kansas State 0 1045.62 53.67 115/197 13-9
157 Truman State 0 1024.58 39.46 128/186 9-3
158 Colby 0 1021.74 137.02 67/240 8-3
159 Oberlin 0 1019.73 73.63 111/223 10-8
160 East Carolina 0 1018.4 66.17 115/206 8-3
161 Army 0 1018.34 62.28 116/208 7-2
162 Colorado State-B 0 1012.6 60.3 113/208 15-7
163 Virginia Commonwealth 0 1008.21 58.64 121/205 3-10
164 Shippensburg 0 1005.83 96.48 96/230 12-5
165 SUNY-Binghamton 0 1004.05 62.38 124/212 9-10
166 Pittsburgh-B 0 997.87 61.75 121/216 9-7
167 NYU 0 984.73 77.86 106/235 5-6
168 Texas-San Antonio 0 970.09 72.58 123/214 3-8
169 Georgia-B 0 969.93 81.19 115/227 6-4
170 Cal Poly-Pomona 0 969.1 80.78 120/219 7-11
171 Texas A&M-B 0 967.46 83.8 112/222 8-5
172 Wisconsin-B 0 966.65 67.82 126/215 9-4
173 Northern Iowa 0 961.76 71.8 125/221 9-8
174 Montana State 0 956.44 90.95 106/243 5-7
175 Liberty 0 952.47 65.55 130/221 10-9
176 George Washington 0 950.4 76.92 110/231 5-15
177 Sonoma State 0 949.3 68.47 126/223 9-10
178 Wesleyan 0 934.5 105.13 100/251 7-4
179 Stephen F Austin 0 920.46 52.15 142/217 19-10
180 Rice 0 918.64 58.24 146/224 7-15
181 Wisconsin-Eau Claire 0 918.61 53.95 148/227 9-7
182 Utah Valley 0 918.08 90.05 119/240 6-7
183 Gonzaga 0 911.34 69.09 136/238 7-10
184 Washington State 0 909.57 67.27 140/226 10-9
185 Florida-B 0 906.73 73.99 133/233 16-6
186 Occidental 0 906.49 61.77 144/230 11-8
187 Miami (Ohio) 0 903 100.83 109/250 8-2
188 Utah State 0 893.83 54.44 154/222 4-14
189 California-Santa Cruz 0 891.56 76.6 136/239 9-9
190 Lancaster Bible 0 887.69 131.83 90/275 6-0
191 North Florida 0 883.57 108.92 117/250 11-2
192 Texas Christian 0 874.3 55.28 155/231 12-9
193 Rensselaer Polytech 0 864.67 83.63 137/244 7-6
194 Macalester 0 860.85 74.88 144/239 3-2
195 Dartmouth-B 0 859.67 69.32 140/254 8-4
196 Whitworth 0 858.16 84.06 134/249 9-5
197 Brigham Young-B 0 849.47 97.09 127/248 5-5
198 High Point 0 849.07 72.2 146/240 11-6
199 Georgia Southern 0 847.22 58.08 157/239 7-20
200 California-B 0 839.59 50.24 157/235 8-9
201 Western Washington-B 0 823.24 64.74 160/246 6-11
202 Syracuse 0 822.23 53.83 166/239 1-9
203 Wooster 0 822.2 59.49 163/237 4-6
204 Florida State-B 0 814.14 78.98 153/252 10-3
205 Alabama-Birmingham 0 807.06 64.89 166/248 8-16
206 Missouri 0 798.38 93.71 140/256 3-7
207 Haverford 0 793.48 73.61 158/253 3-7
208 Arizona State-B 0 788.65 67.8 156/252 16-11
209 New Mexico 0 784.79 57.24 159/242 7-11
210 Delaware-B 0 780.23 112.14 119/270 10-2
211 Harding 0 773.36 94.93 144/267 5-7
212 Samford 0 771.99 62.73 160/253 9-8
213 Rowan 0 769.99 70.02 172/255 3-10
214 Berry 0 769.62 93.18 143/265 5-8
215 West Virginia 0 766.76 63.98 160/252 8-6
216 Winona State 0 765.79 67.32 176/258 8-9
217 Boise State 0 764.11 82.82 163/261 3-7
218 North Georgia 0 760.3 81.25 155/266 6-7
219 North Greenville 0 755.35 97.04 157/272 3-4
220 Maryland-Baltimore County 0 754.67 67.6 167/251 7-13
221 Western Carolina 0 748.28 115.26 136/286 3-4
222 Messiah College-B 0 745.94 118.52 148/282 4-2
223 Texas A&M-C 0 741.19 76.31 163/261 8-4
224 Northern Illinois 0 738.38 56.36 187/255 5-12
225 Drake 0 733.33 69.17 181/258 5-6
226 Sacramento State 0 727.98 87.21 160/264 3-10
227 LSU-B 0 720.78 71.83 181/261 5-7
228 Cal State-Long Beach 0 711.73 160.18 105/305 4-2
229 Allegheny 0 702.59 81.38 176/274 5-5
230 American 0 693.27 48.22 195/255 8-11
231 Central Washington 0 692.87 76.12 183/275 10-11
232 Miami 0 687.67 68.15 185/265 6-17
233 Wake Forest 0 687.65 98.16 146/283 6-9
234 Arkansas State 0 687.29 104.29 159/289 5-2
235 Washington-B 0 686.12 72.82 188/275 4-10
236 San Jose State 0 684.83 49.33 199/258 8-10
237 James Madison-B 0 659.21 51.97 196/264 12-5
238 Penn State-B 0 652.27 129.09 143/309 8-3
239 South Carolina-B 0 651.39 80.17 189/283 7-4
240 Navy 0 651.37 74.77 178/272 4-6
241 Wingate 0 648.94 68.1 195/270 3-11
242 Wisconsin-Stevens Point 0 633.13 82.01 189/282 4-2
243 Tulsa 0 632.6 82.43 190/291 5-9
244 Maryland-B 0 629.64 73.5 184/281 6-6
245 Central Arkansas 0 627.27 57.33 207/268 5-11
246 Portland State 0 604.12 90.04 179/299 6-12
247 Central Florida-B 0 593.01 61.01 219/284 7-8
248 Illinois-B 0 583.01 74.09 206/286 10-7
249 Georgia Tech-B 0 582.57 103.03 179/297 6-7
250 Eastern Illinois 0 580.14 81.04 208/289 6-7
251 Trinity University 0 579.54 51.24 218/277 4-8
252 Salisbury 0 560.49 86.56 208/304 10-9
253 Charleston 0 557.46 50.25 227/275 5-18
254 Oklahoma-B 0 547.2 113.06 189/310 5-12
255 Carleton College-Hot Karls 0 546.33 51.56 225/287 9-10
256 Embry-Riddle (Florida) 0 543.37 72.14 218/292 7-7
257 Grand Canyon 0 542.25 48.87 228/280 7-12
258 Florida Gulf Coast 0 515.25 93.45 211/305 4-3
259 Cal Poly-SLO-B 0 509.9 56.38 226/287 4-12
260 Towson 0 496.43 101.88 214/308 0-6
261 Marist 0 496.25 72 227/301 2-3
262 Caltech 0 490.85 95.39 210/306 3-6
263 Idaho 0 488 80.25 212/300 3-8
264 Northern Arizona-B 0 484.02 59.85 232/296 1-5
265 Rowan-B 0 479.53 70.32 227/304 8-9
266 Georgetown-B 0 475.4 91.24 204/312 7-4
267 Kent State 0 455.12 76.4 231/307 4-8
268 California-Irvine 0 450.86 50.13 245/299 5-14
269 Denison 0 430.64 72.39 240/310 2-4
270 California-San Diego-B 0 428.18 50.21 247/299 7-11
271 California-Davis-B 0 416.47 96.34 225/316 4-9
272 Illinois State-B 0 416.3 67.48 243/311 9-10
273 Southern Mississippi 0 414.34 91.33 218/315 2-12
274 Texas-Dallas-B 0 410.29 70.3 241/309 8-18
275 DePaul 0 398.96 79.56 233/316 6-4
276 Stetson 0 396.61 69.02 242/307 2-11
277 Air Force Academy-B 0 392.52 139.65 210/325 1-6
278 Washington University-B 0 382.34 53.16 252/305 5-12
279 Texas-B 0 380.95 84.88 226/313 1-9
280 Dallas 0 379.37 102 224/324 4-9
281 Illinois-Chicago 0 374.61 82.65 240/313 3-10
282 Radford 0 364.25 144.04 192/327 1-8
283 Iowa State-B 0 355.69 80.56 244/317 4-8
284 Texas-Arlington 0 349.46 96.97 239/316 3-12
285 Montana-B 0 344 134.14 222/325 0-6
286 Washington-C 0 340.31 84.86 240/317 2-9
287 Colorado Mesa University 0 340.27 97.63 245/321 2-12
288 Virginia-B 0 336.79 85.05 239/318 7-10
289 Northwestern-B 0 330.66 77.95 252/321 5-9
290 Fresno State 0 328.55 116.18 217/328 0-5
291 Saint Joseph's University 0 326.7 111.37 225/325 3-9
292 Carnegie Mellon University-B 0 321.47 83.94 253/320 5-8
293 Wisconsin-Oshkosh 0 318.89 59.24 262/315 3-13
294 Seattle 0 317.78 57.51 261/314 1-5
295 Arizona-B 0 302.01 65.32 258/317 3-15
296 Florida Atlantic 0 301.7 56.69 261/321 2-6
297 Edinboro 0 297.43 51.4 270/315 3-14
298 Brown-B 0 296.12 73.93 260/322 2-4
299 Notre Dame-B 0 283.33 73.21 255/320 3-5
300 Wright State 0 280.65 69.02 252/317 4-7
301 Creighton 0 277.67 103.98 244/324 2-6
302 Maine-Farmington 0 271.36 75.27 257/321 2-5
303 Tulane-B 0 263.97 85.84 260/325 4-9
304 Southern Methodist 0 223.64 102.67 244/331 4-9
305 Stanford-B 0 205.64 175.7 197/342 1-5
306 Georgia Gwinnett 0 201.21 132.75 241/337 1-5
307 UCLA-B 0 201.18 77.27 271/328 3-9
308 Indiana-B 0 197.74 64.69 273/323 6-11
309 Grinnell 0 193.74 73.89 270/326 3-9
310 Indiana (Pennsylvania) 0 183.44 105.01 253/334 2-5
311 North Texas-B 0 169.65 88.83 265/329 5-15
312 Hofstra 0 146.92 54.16 288/324 2-8
313 Kansas B-B 0 133.03 110.77 264/336 0-7
314 Drury 0 130.83 146.4 243/338 1-4
315 California-San Diego-C 0 108.21 86.95 275/338 1-11
316 Kentucky-B 0 95.6 99.8 273/336 2-11
317 California-Santa Barbara-B 0 93.15 116.66 273/338 2-9
318 Rose-Hulman 0 75.92 75.22 281/333 2-6
319 Florida Polytechnic University 0 40.82 136.62 268/342 1-5
320 Marquette-B 0 27.69 104.4 273/339 1-9
321 Cleveland State 0 18.99 113.13 281/340 2-10
322 Siena 0 4.78 106.12 283/340 2-3
323 George Washington-B 0 2.17 112.2 286/342 3-7
324 Pacific Lutheran-B 0 -27.31 98.14 293/342 0-12
325 South Florida-B 0 -56.51 89.82 294/340 3-11
326 California-Santa Cruz-B 0 -78.79 149.53 285/343 1-6
327 Florida Tech-B 0 -88.27 122.8 277/342 2-12
328 Texas State -B 0 -89.6 80.81 306/341 0-11
329 Wisconsin-Milwaukee-B 0 -114.36 91.28 306/342 1-11
330 Hendrix 0 -146.42 129.61 285/343 1-5
331 Stockton 0 -151.95 135.25 298/343 1-5
332 Kettering 0 -158.71 157 294/343 0-5
333 West Chester-B 0 -159.72 130.76 301/342 1-7
334 Kennesaw State-B 0 -168.83 132.04 291/343 0-12
335 Wisconsin-C 0 -186.94 112.31 307/343 1-9
336 American-B 0 -194.93 97.97 316/342 1-9
337 Illinois-C 0 -211.54 78.94 317/342 0-11
338 SUNY-Buffalo-B 0 -229.99 103.13 315/343 0-10
339 New Haven 0 -233.88 139.97 309/343 0-5
340 Dayton-B 0 -287.94 286.64 234/343 0-5
341 Arizona State-C 0 -297.99 181.92 304/343 0-6
342 Alabama-B 0 -504.4 415.43 213/343 0-6
343 MIT-B 0 -755.47 318.43 296/343 0-6

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)