Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2018-19 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
1 Great Lakes 1.11 CLE Smokestack 63.20%,   Chicago Machine 46.10%,   Brickyard 1.40%,  
3 Mid-Atlantic 2.27 Truck Stop 100.00%,   Pittsburgh Temper 98.20%,   Patrol 23.80%,   Vault 5.30%,  
1 North Central 1.01 Sub Zero 99.50%,   Yogosbo 0.90%,   General Strike 0.40%,  
4 Northeast 3.22 DiG 99.70%,   GOAT 99.60%,   PoNY 99.30%,   Sprout 23.70%,  
3 Northwest 2.84 Sockeye 100.00%,   Furious George 98.30%,   Rhino Slam! 83.60%,   Voodoo 1.90%,   The Killjoys 0.20%,  
2 South Central 1.85 Doublewide 96.70%,   Johnny Bravo 88.00%,   Clutch 0.10%,  
2 Southeast 1.59 Ring of Fire 99.60%,   Chain Lightning 59.30%,   Brickhouse 0.20%,   Lost Boys 0.10%,  
2 Southwest 2.11 SoCal Condors 100.00%,   Revolver 100.00%,   OAT 10.50%,   Sundowners 0.40%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region AC GL ME NE NC NW OV SC SE SW
Initial 1.107 2.273 1.008 3.223 2.840 1.848 1.592 2.109
Autos (all @ 1) 0.107 1.273 0.008 2.223 1.840 0.848 0.592 1.109
Northeast (@ 2) 0.107 1.273 0.008 1.223 1.840 0.848 0.592 1.109
Northwest (@ 2) 0.107 1.273 0.008 1.223 0.840 0.848 0.592 1.109
Mid-Atlantic (@ 2) 0.107 0.273 0.008 1.223 0.840 0.848 0.592 1.109
Northeast (@ 3) 0.107 0.273 0.008 0.223 0.840 0.848 0.592 1.109
Southwest (@ 2) 0.107 0.273 0.008 0.223 0.840 0.848 0.592 0.109
South Central (@ 2) 0.107 0.273 0.008 0.223 0.840 -0.152 0.592 0.109
Northwest (@ 3) 0.107 0.273 0.008 0.223 -0.160 -0.152 0.592 0.109
Southeast (@ 2) 0.107 0.273 0.008 0.223 -0.160 -0.152 -0.408 0.109
Mid-Atlantic (@ 3) 0.107 -0.727 0.008 0.223 -0.160 -0.152 -0.408 0.109
Northeast (@ 4) 0.107 -0.727 0.008 -0.777 -0.160 -0.152 -0.408 0.109
Total 1 3 1 4 3 2 2 2

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 Truck Stop 1 2402.74 82.84 1/7 10-2
2 Sockeye 1 2368.08 57.12 1/5 11-1
3 SoCal Condors 1 2168.01 53.51 2/15 10-2
4 Revolver 1 2149.67 59.73 2/15 8-4
5 DiG 0.997 2071.17 61.92 2/18 11-2
6 Ring of Fire 0.996 2210.94 109.28 1/17 3-3
7 GOAT 0.996 2102.47 73.41 2/19 9-4
8 Sub Zero 0.995 2098.16 60.71 3/18 7-5
9 PoNY 0.993 2165.43 97.17 1/18 8-4
10 Furious George 0.983 2152.36 117.39 1/21 12-0
11 Pittsburgh Temper 0.982 2048.61 60.87 4/20 10-2
12 Doublewide 0.967 2086.54 101.95 1/22 4-3
13 Johnny Bravo 0.88 1987.43 65.15 5/24 13-5
14 Rhino Slam! 0.836 1978.41 69.6 3/25 12-7
15 CLE Smokestack 0.632 1929.58 63.18 5/25 11-1
16 Chain Lightning 0.593 1927.53 77.86 5/26 6-7
17 Chicago Machine 0.461 1905.62 73.94 7/28 6-7
18 Patrol 0.238 1860.26 77.71 6/31 7-6
19 Sprout 0.237 1833.36 108.43 6/42 11-1
20 OAT 0.105 1696.75 168.22 4/69 4-1
21 Vault 0.053 1773.57 89.16 11/39 13-0
22 Voodoo 0.019 1752.94 77.43 14/39 11-8
23 Brickyard 0.014 1757.77 68.55 14/37 6-6
24 Yogosbo 0.009 1781.12 54.36 14/31 21-5
25 General Strike 0.004 1746.57 56.07 15/34 11-3
26 Sundowners 0.004 1567.88 133.14 14/78 6-2
27 Brickhouse 0.002 1648.17 95.52 15/58 6-7
28 The Killjoys 0.002 1560.5 130.14 16/77 4-2
29 Clutch 0.001 1658.06 73.59 16/49 15-3
30 Lost Boys 0.001 1556.68 109.19 16/74 10-3
31 Nitro 0 1665 67.09 17/48 11-3
32 Black Market I 0 1621.51 72.76 18/51 11-8
33 Turbine 0 1591.89 76.01 19/54 4-2
34 Prairie Fire 0 1580.75 57.34 23/53 6-12
35 Freaks 0 1553.34 55.53 25/61 16-8
36 Blueprint 0 1552.76 68.51 23/58 12-6
37 Garden State Ultimate 0 1540.82 65.79 22/58 6-6
38 Johnny Encore 0 1537.4 99.13 21/70 4-2
39 H.I.P 0 1532.93 72.65 21/63 23-3
40 Nain Rouge 0 1489 76.26 24/67 7-6
41 Inception 0 1479.45 63.26 27/67 5-11
42 Red Dawn 0 1475.17 84.29 21/71 4-3
43 Shade 0 1467.22 90.21 22/77 6-6
44 CITYWIDE Special 0 1466.13 91.16 25/74 6-7
45 Haymaker 0 1458.58 63.96 28/68 9-7
46 Blackfish 0 1454.47 56.78 27/66 10-2
47 Streetgang 0 1452.32 56.74 28/64 8-7
48 Red Circus 0 1451.25 64.19 26/68 8-10
49 Mad Men 0 1443.41 57.98 28/66 15-11
50 El Niño 0 1434.51 61 30/76 13-6
51 Cryptic 0 1429.07 50.3 32/66 14-5
52 MKE 0 1423.92 63.02 30/71 10-9
53 Colt 0 1422.38 68.84 30/73 15-4
54 Mallard 0 1398.74 68.66 30/71 9-4
55 Ghost Train 0 1387.39 37.68 40/67 11-7
56 Lantern 0 1358.91 45.32 40/71 8-4
57 Deathsquad 0 1356.65 93.79 29/88 7-5
58 Battery 0 1318.11 129 26/124 5-2
59 Tanasi 0 1315.22 68.36 35/93 16-4
60 Swans 0 1313.63 53.39 42/82 19-8
61 Scythe 0 1311.28 56.45 40/87 14-11
62 Omen 0 1301.17 113.65 30/115 11-2
63 Big Wrench 0 1290.26 60.88 42/88 11-15
64 Gaucho 0 1277.73 54.21 39/92 16-4
65 Ironmen 0 1268.17 61.23 43/93 19-6
66 Dohrk Stor 0 1258.1 87.98 36/111 2-4
67 UpRoar 0 1240.7 79.56 39/108 3-9
68 Bullet 0 1240.68 75.38 40/103 12-6
69 Log Jam 0 1229.42 88.89 45/114 9-3
70 ISO Atmo 0 1211.21 57.89 43/100 6-12
71 Red Tide 0 1196.59 84.18 40/122 11-8
72 Sawtooth 0 1183.17 63.7 53/111 5-7
73 Riverside 0 1179.86 51.33 56/104 14-6
74 Dark Star 0 1173.06 77.84 51/122 5-7
75 Black Lung 0 1172.38 86.29 48/123 11-3
76 DeMo 0 1168.4 60.22 56/115 9-11
77 Dreadnought 0 1135.94 63.15 57/122 14-4
78 Mango Tree 0 1133.24 147.2 31/140 4-1
79 Fathom 0 1131.96 108.07 45/140 3-3
80 Club M - Manic 0 1131.38 134.38 35/146 2-4
81 DOGGPOUND 0 1126.66 78.72 49/126 3-5
82 Texas United 0 1121.26 72.81 59/128 9-4
83 Seattle Blacklist 0 1113.47 92.93 53/137 4-2
84 HouSE 0 1110.76 59.73 61/120 11-8
85 Imperial 0 1105.35 60.03 64/118 10-8
86 Red Hots - u20 0 1098.99 97.97 45/139 3-3
87 Omen 0 1095.79 61.84 64/123 7-0
88 Town Hall Stars 0 1090.44 71.24 60/136 7-3
89 THE BODY 0 1088.25 88.16 55/133 10-10
90 Burly 0 1081.35 75.78 61/132 8-4
91 Harvey Cats 0 1076.15 71.17 64/126 8-5
92 Richmond Floodwall 0 1074.69 57.45 65/124 2-9
93 Space Cowboys 0 1063.76 63.72 66/126 9-4
94 Green River Swordfish 0 1060.74 96 58/140 5-7
95 Satellite 0 1057.63 52.01 70/130 11-2
96 Charleston Heat Stroke 0 1056.45 127.66 46/151 3-4
97 Minnesota Superior U20B 0 1054.69 66.59 66/131 3-3
98 Magma Bears 0 1052.32 61.76 67/132 12-8
99 Shrike 0 1049.89 82.13 56/133 5-3
100 Johnny Walker 0 1036.41 112.94 56/149 1-4
101 PowderHogs 0 1036.11 76.11 66/137 2-9
102 Enigma 0 1031.28 88.81 61/138 9-4
103 Somerville BAG 0 1026.18 57.56 72/128 15-6
104 Dynasty 0 1018.57 94.15 61/144 9-5
105 Choice City Hops 0 1012.54 74.39 64/140 6-6
106 Oregon Eruption! 0 1010.54 105.33 59/147 3-3
107 John Doe 0 998.65 60.83 69/136 9-4
108 Black Market II 0 988.64 67.97 70/146 6-6
109 Gamble 0 986.41 48.53 80/133 12-9
110 Sherbrooke Gentlemen's Club 0 983.34 113.22 63/153 2-4
111 H.O.G. Ultimate 0 975.13 55.44 78/140 14-12
112 Swamp Horse 0 964.04 66.42 80/139 7-5
113 Oakgrove Boys 0 963.44 59.89 82/136 3-8
114 Timber 0 958.9 62.09 76/141 10-11
115 Vicious Cycle 0 948.87 73.31 77/143 5-2
116 Rush Hour ATL 0 928.35 51.44 91/140 14-13
117 Kentucky Flying Circus 0 924.11 82.71 74/148 10-10
118 baNC 0 922.66 109.37 61/155 5-8
119 Regiment 0 919.09 109.36 61/159 2-6
120 Babe 0 917.77 48.02 88/140 14-5
121 Daybreak 0 909.59 59.99 88/142 0-6
122 CaSTLe 0 907.76 59.59 88/141 9-9
123 Space Coast Ultimate 0 904.43 56.44 88/145 8-6
124 Cockfight 0 900.3 133.93 64/171 3-4
125 Papa Bear 0 896.34 50.53 101/143 12-9
126 Club M - Magma 0 889.76 207.21 31/186 1-4
127 Rougaroux 0 885.87 84.01 84/156 6-12
128 Kansas City Smokestack 0 861.75 57.44 94/149 7-14
129 OC Crows 0 861.2 64.76 91/148 0-8
130 BUDA U20B 0 856.35 122.53 75/170 3-3
131 Ender's Outcasts 0 848.63 69.22 89/153 8-7
132 ScooberDivers 0 845.12 87.34 79/166 6-6
133 Cojones 0 821.58 81 96/162 1-10
134 Overcast 0 816.09 47.22 113/150 4-7
135 Predator 0 807.8 60.6 108/155 10-8
136 Ditto A 0 789.72 72.3 101/164 2-4
137 BlackER Market Y 0 775.84 82.98 97/163 3-3
138 Syndicate 0 761.13 66.73 114/158 5-8
139 Rising Tide U20B 0 756.49 83.89 102/166 2-4
140 Glycerine 0 755.37 68.19 111/165 11-9
141 Louisiana Second Line 0 731.39 78 109/170 5-8
142 Watch City 0 728.26 102.95 96/174 2-5
143 Helots 0 724.91 60.87 122/163 5-6
144 Watchdogs 0 707.2 62.57 120/167 8-11
145 Foxtrot 0 699.93 58.27 125/165 8-11
146 Slag Dump 0 692.54 70.53 122/168 4-6
147 Rip City 0 692.3 92.56 101/181 2-10
148 Yacht Club 0 680.48 70.95 124/171 3-11
149 Hazard 0 644.9 77.71 127/175 6-7
150 One Night 0 644.35 88.9 116/182 6-7
151 Supercell 0 618.47 65.91 133/176 8-8
152 Milwaukee Revival 0 608.42 58.27 134/174 3-14
153 Bomb Squad 0 594.95 89.84 125/187 1-4
154 Midnight Meat Train 0 593.42 75.2 130/180 5-8
155 Adelphos 0 591.83 87.96 127/182 4-7
156 DUPlex 0 587.82 114.65 125/189 2-5
157 Red Bat 0 585.98 68.86 132/184 3-15
158 Trent's Team 0 578.09 98.6 124/187 3-10
159 A-Block 0 567.14 110.66 125/190 3-4
160 E.V.I.L. 0 557.98 71.66 138/184 8-11
161 Battleship 0 548.65 73.8 137/187 5-7
162 Red Imp.ala 0 542.76 66.41 132/182 5-14
163 Tyranny 0 540.73 65.16 141/182 1-6
164 Thunder Boys 0 533.75 105.43 132/187 2-11
165 Chimney 0 531.88 38.32 148/179 6-13
166 Winc City Fog of War 0 530.58 77.07 138/184 3-8
167 Komori 0 516.21 187.69 77/197 0-6
168 Madhouse 0 508.09 98.17 131/191 3-4
169 Flying Pig 0 483.02 67.06 149/187 2-5
170 BlackER Market X 0 473.72 83.1 144/189 2-4
171 War Machine 0 464.76 59.97 148/187 4-21
172 Villains 0 461.25 53.24 151/187 3-10
173 Rampage 0 444.48 80.57 144/190 3-10
174 Scootlyfe 0 438.48 59.26 148/188 0-6
175 Alamode 0 408.38 60.7 153/191 7-14
176 Gentlemen's Club 0 403.91 95.49 146/193 2-11
177 Bearproof 0 402.73 75.81 149/192 3-9
178 NEO 0 400.36 50.88 160/189 5-8
179 Tsunami B 0 395.24 85.15 152/193 2-6
180 Spring Break '93 0 372.61 88.14 150/195 2-11
181 Traffic 0 344.91 76.98 158/194 2-10
182 Quaze 0 310.23 74.78 160/195 2-10
183 Messengers-B 0 306.11 77.39 161/195 3-17
184 Highlight Reel 0 304.04 94.61 156/197 2-4
185 Flying Dutchmen 0 284.74 81.41 164/196 2-11
186 Hail Mary 0 263.75 193.63 112/197 0-5
187 Genny Lite 0 260 78.59 157/197 1-9
188 Texas Heatwave 0 243.59 163.58 138/197 2-5
189 Bird Patrol 0 233.72 60.54 174/195 1-6
190 Surrilic Audovice 0 230.48 78.03 169/197 3-17
191 Texas Toast 0 187.46 91.87 164/197 1-11
192 Hot Tamales 0 177.57 139.88 152/197 1-5
193 Black Market III 0 164.99 99.52 172/197 1-4
194 Identity Crisis 0 130.77 107.55 172/197 0-7
195 Buffalo Open 0 57.69 96.31 180/197 1-11
196 defunCT 0 44.35 238.58 142/197 0-6
197 Ditto B 0 -67.87 186.19 157/197 0-5

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)