Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2018-19 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
2 Great Lakes 1.86 Chicago Machine 96.00%,   HIGH FIVE 89.60%,  
2 Mid-Atlantic 1.98 Pittsburgh Temper 98.10%,   Truck Stop 93.20%,   Patrol 3.60%,   Richmond Floodwall 3.00%,  
2 North Central 1.85 Madison Club 96.60%,   Sub Zero 88.50%,   Prairie Fire 0.20%,  
2 Northeast 2.48 PoNY 99.70%,   DiG 98.50%,   GOAT 50.00%,  
3 Northwest 2.77 Sockeye 100.00%,   Rhino Slam 91.10%,   Furious George 86.30%,  
1 South Central 1.53 Doublewide 78.60%,   Johnny Bravo 74.20%,  
2 Southeast 1.8 Ring of Fire 100.00%,   Chain Lightning 75.40%,   Turbine 4.70%,  
2 Southwest 1.73 Revolver 100.00%,   SoCal Condors 64.20%,   Guerrilla 8.50%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region GL MA NC NE NW SC SE SW
Initial 1.856 1.979 1.853 2.482 2.774 1.528 1.801 1.727
Autos (all @ 1) 0.856 0.979 0.853 1.482 1.774 0.528 0.801 0.727
Northwest (@ 2) 0.856 0.979 0.853 1.482 0.774 0.528 0.801 0.727
Northeast (@ 2) 0.856 0.979 0.853 0.482 0.774 0.528 0.801 0.727
Mid-Atlantic (@ 2) 0.856 -0.021 0.853 0.482 0.774 0.528 0.801 0.727
Great Lakes (@ 2) -0.144 -0.021 0.853 0.482 0.774 0.528 0.801 0.727
North Central (@ 2) -0.144 -0.021 -0.147 0.482 0.774 0.528 0.801 0.727
Southeast (@ 2) -0.144 -0.021 -0.147 0.482 0.774 0.528 -0.199 0.727
Northwest (@ 3) -0.144 -0.021 -0.147 0.482 -0.226 0.528 -0.199 0.727
Southwest (@ 2) -0.144 -0.021 -0.147 0.482 -0.226 0.528 -0.199 -0.273
Total 2 2 2 2 3 1 2 2

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 Revolver 1 2295.77 61.63 1/7 11-2
2 Sockeye 1 2245.08 69.45 1/10 12-2
3 Ring of Fire 1 2165.52 70.71 1/14 9-4
4 PoNY 0.997 2137.81 75.25 1/18 13-6
5 DiG 0.985 2095.67 85.61 1/18 13-6
6 Pittsburgh Temper 0.981 2053.69 80.24 1/19 15-3
7 Madison Club 0.966 2042.89 78.7 1/19 8-3
8 Chicago Machine 0.96 2010.84 57.6 2/20 14-10
9 Truck Stop 0.932 2029.23 81.28 2/21 9-10
10 Rhino Slam 0.911 1996.71 68.87 2/22 23-3
11 HIGH FIVE 0.896 2004.48 82.98 2/21 9-9
12 Sub Zero 0.885 1997.79 86.1 2/21 10-9
13 Furious George 0.863 1976.44 69.69 2/21 15-4
14 Doublewide 0.786 1961.55 76.8 3/22 7-7
15 Chain Lightning 0.754 1995.82 140.9 1/29 9-2
16 Johnny Bravo 0.742 1944.6 69.54 3/22 9-10
17 SoCal Condors 0.642 1943.38 111.42 1/28 6-5
18 GOAT 0.5 1909.93 116.05 1/31 7-3
19 Guerrilla 0.085 1789.16 76.26 8/30 8-10
20 Turbine 0.047 1697.38 127.68 5/63 7-4
21 Patrol 0.036 1761.08 75.13 12/31 5-13
22 Richmond Floodwall 0.03 1686.23 110.09 8/56 11-2
23 Prairie Fire 0.002 1666.84 77.32 16/41 11-7
24 Freaks 0 1639.37 51.31 18/34 17-3
25 Voodoo 0 1627.95 69.92 17/41 10-9
26 Inception 0 1619.15 60.4 19/41 13-4
27 Garden State Ultimate 0 1593.77 75.98 18/49 8-3
28 Big Wrench 0 1583.71 62.25 19/44 13-4
29 Medicine Men 0 1556.25 76.72 20/50 4-9
30 Brickyard 0 1534.29 73.87 20/49 13-5
31 Mockingbird 0 1506.94 94.54 18/57 4-6
32 Mallard 0 1446.94 47.89 27/52 14-0
33 CLE Smokestack 0 1440.03 87.8 23/65 8-4
34 Dark Star 0 1437.18 59.37 25/61 10-11
35 Brickhouse 0 1435.03 93.76 20/63 7-5
36 Ghost Train 0 1434.98 60.62 26/57 8-3
37 Streetgang 0 1427.14 46.52 26/54 9-5
38 Black Market 0 1426.31 59.05 25/58 22-10
39 Nitro 0 1426.16 97.21 21/70 8-4
40 Coastal Empire 0 1416.87 64.54 25/59 9-2
41 CaSTLe 0 1412.88 71.2 24/61 13-5
42 Clutch 0 1406.68 50.25 27/57 18-1
43 Lost Boys 0 1402.45 53.6 28/57 17-7
44 BroCats 0 1380.52 55.03 26/61 13-4
45 Mad Men 0 1355.31 62.61 28/69 13-14
46 MKE 0 1353.15 64.41 29/63 16-9
47 Oakgrove Boys 0 1342.65 99.87 20/79 8-5
48 Tanasi 0 1335.11 59.75 31/65 13-6
49 CITYWIDE Special 0 1332.77 71.86 29/70 8-8
50 Four 0 1328.04 69.51 23/70 10-8
51 Blueprint 0 1317.88 55.34 33/67 11-12
52 Colt 0 1297.14 75.5 31/74 11-8
53 Haymaker 0 1264.98 61.34 33/74 9-9
54 DeMo 0 1262.14 52.29 36/72 17-4
55 Bullet 0 1261.19 81.05 29/86 14-4
56 Ironmen 0 1240 59.47 37/77 14-6
57 Overcast 0 1239.19 73.81 34/91 7-3
58 Illusion 0 1224.24 66.42 35/80 7-12
59 Sawtooth 0 1204.87 69.66 37/86 7-12
60 Omen 0 1204.33 72.53 35/94 10-4
61 Imperial 0 1201.59 62.27 37/86 10-9
62 Gamble 0 1195.06 51.35 44/81 19-6
63 El Niño 0 1176.39 73.91 38/90 12-2
64 Shade 0 1175.01 61.6 44/85 12-5
65 Papa Bear 0 1142.33 49.78 52/92 14-5
66 Gaucho 0 1138.22 66.41 48/102 13-6
67 Supercell 0 1127.84 55.53 48/94 14-5
68 Riverside 0 1102.44 57.91 51/95 13-7
69 Rip City Ultimate 0 1095.44 62.87 53/100 12-15
70 Greater Gary Goblins Y 0 1078.66 86.44 46/110 9-5
71 Black Lung 0 1062.69 56.67 57/100 11-6
72 Swans 0 1062.52 84.1 47/114 6-5
73 Greater Gary Goblins X 0 1061.5 65.12 54/102 8-5
74 John Doe 0 1053.58 52.47 57/100 1-11
75 PowderHogs 0 1050.58 56.47 49/99 12-12
76 Sundowners 0 1042.95 78.95 53/111 7-7
77 Slag Dump 0 1035.36 116.14 35/113 5-5
78 UpRoar 0 1032.67 56.59 58/103 11-10
79 Rush Hour 0 1030.6 69.66 52/110 8-10
80 Choice City Hops 0 1026.98 78.52 53/112 9-10
81 Mango Tree 0 1007.95 77.99 55/112 10-8
82 The Killjoys 0 1007.47 98.66 45/117 3-7
83 Memphis Belle 0 1007.16 55.57 62/107 10-7
84 Scythe 0 1001.76 38.27 66/102 16-17
85 Southern Hospitality 0 998.84 63.98 55/114 8-11
86 Deathsquad 0 987.04 59.01 63/108 11-7
87 Westchester Magma Bears 0 985.02 50.87 65/106 11-7
88 Omen 0 984.37 56.64 60/107 10-13
89 Enigma 0 963.72 57.03 68/110 15-10
90 Pesterbug 0 961.29 67.42 60/110 7-5
91 Red Tide 0 960.1 50.48 68/108 15-4
92 Green River Swordfish 0 954.08 91.33 56/117 4-10
93 Battery 0 930.87 80.11 62/119 6-7
94 houSE 0 930.44 53.71 70/114 11-10
95 ISO Atmo 0 929.81 63.17 68/114 8-11
96 Rougaroux 0 927.73 67.31 59/115 7-7
97 H.O.G. Ultimate 0 926.49 52.97 71/114 15-12
98 Sprawl 0 924.11 85.89 60/118 4-10
99 Swamp Horse 0 908.98 43.51 73/112 10-16
100 Dreadnought 0 900.27 61.61 72/115 8-9
101 BaNC 0 894.35 66.11 73/117 6-13
102 Cryptic 0 893.3 73.65 66/118 9-7
103 Satellite 0 888.41 61.54 69/119 14-6
104 MomINtuM 0 872.77 55.91 79/117 12-7
105 Wisconsin Hops 0 862.86 84.42 65/121 8-5
106 Bruises 0 838.11 68.69 75/119 7-10
107 Adelphos 0 821.91 72.1 78/122 5-7
108 Prime 0 821.72 61.29 78/120 8-9
109 KC SmokeStack 0 816.71 66.78 75/123 8-12
110 THE BODY 0 800.61 71.15 80/127 7-17
111 JAWN 0 796.01 65.02 87/123 5-7
112 Watchdogs 0 767.16 119.1 67/135 5-5
113 Town Hall Stars 0 745.85 96.69 78/135 5-7
114 Pipeline 0 737.32 56.77 93/127 4-9
115 Dynasty 0 737.16 69.21 83/129 9-9
116 DUPlex 0 690.75 55.51 103/129 4-9
117 Syndicate 0 690.1 69.59 96/133 4-10
118 Holy City Heathens 0 683.79 49.83 108/125 3-15
119 Riverside Messengers-B 0 625.81 57.59 102/134 5-8
120 Watch City 0 589.22 79.9 106/137 6-8
121 BlackER Market 0 580.68 51.31 113/134 6-12
122 Kentucky Flying Circus 0 579.98 71.35 107/136 2-11
123 Vicious Cycle 0 559.53 70.65 110/137 4-9
124 Helots 0 542.41 92.52 109/139 2-9
125 DUCS 0 541.93 47.47 117/134 5-14
126 Gridlock 0 538.97 61.85 114/137 1-12
127 Foxtrot 0 537.48 83.87 111/138 3-10
128 Rampage 0 529.6 57.6 114/136 6-14
129 Dirty D 0 515.44 63.98 116/137 4-8
130 Green Bay Quackers 0 495.7 83.68 113/139 4-8
131 The Bayou Boys 0 492.91 48.05 118/136 6-26
132 Chimney 0 452.02 75.47 115/139 3-10
133 Rawhide 0 446.1 51.42 119/138 2-16
134 One Night 0 393.23 73.81 118/140 3-12
135 Winc City Fog of War 0 347.89 93.04 117/140 3-9
136 Duel 0 336.59 84.27 120/140 4-9
137 Midnight Meat Train 0 332.32 98.61 121/140 2-9
138 Hippie Mafia 0 315.88 88.86 122/140 3-9
139 War Machine 0 203.12 85.08 129/140 1-18
140 Ironside 0 166.13 81.39 134/140 3-16

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)