Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2018-19 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
1 Great Lakes 1.08 Chicago Machine 99.80%,   Brickyard 7.20%,   CLE Smokestack 1.50%,  
2 Mid-Atlantic 2.19 Truck Stop 100.00%,   Pittsburgh Temper 90.80%,   Patrol 23.90%,   Vault 4.00%,  
1 North Central 1.08 Sub Zero 100.00%,   Yogosbo 7.80%,  
3 Northeast 3.4 PoNY 100.00%,   DiG 99.90%,   GOAT 98.30%,   Sprout 41.70%,   Blueprint 0.10%,  
3 Northwest 2.87 Sockeye 100.00%,   Furious George 88.10%,   Rhino Slam! 80.30%,   Voodoo 18.10%,  
2 South Central 1.73 Johnny Bravo 93.30%,   Doublewide 80.10%,   Clutch 0.10%,  
2 Southeast 1.67 Ring of Fire 100.00%,   Chain Lightning 67.10%,   Brickhouse 0.30%,  
2 Southwest 1.98 Revolver 100.00%,   SoCal Condors 97.60%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region GL MA NC NE NW SC SE SW
Initial 1.085 2.187 1.078 3.400 2.865 1.735 1.674 1.976
Autos (all @ 1) 0.085 1.187 0.078 2.400 1.865 0.735 0.674 0.976
Northeast (@ 2) 0.085 1.187 0.078 1.400 1.865 0.735 0.674 0.976
Northwest (@ 2) 0.085 1.187 0.078 1.400 0.865 0.735 0.674 0.976
Northeast (@ 3) 0.085 1.187 0.078 0.400 0.865 0.735 0.674 0.976
Mid-Atlantic (@ 2) 0.085 0.187 0.078 0.400 0.865 0.735 0.674 0.976
Southwest (@ 2) 0.085 0.187 0.078 0.400 0.865 0.735 0.674 -0.024
Northwest (@ 3) 0.085 0.187 0.078 0.400 -0.135 0.735 0.674 -0.024
South Central (@ 2) 0.085 0.187 0.078 0.400 -0.135 -0.265 0.674 -0.024
Southeast (@ 2) 0.085 0.187 0.078 0.400 -0.135 -0.265 -0.326 -0.024
Total 1 2 1 3 3 2 2 2

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 Sockeye 1 2292.85 70.75 1/6 14-3
2 Truck Stop 1 2169.57 72.94 1/9 12-6
3 PoNY 1 2168.01 66.38 1/10 14-4
4 Ring of Fire 1 2165.85 99.13 1/15 7-4
5 Revolver 1 2109.63 60.69 1/12 14-4
6 Sub Zero 1 2063.25 55.87 1/14 10-7
7 DiG 0.999 1967.04 48.45 4/17 13-6
8 Chicago Machine 0.998 2008.98 68.65 2/17 10-9
9 GOAT 0.983 1997.22 89.43 1/21 9-4
10 SoCal Condors 0.976 1970.39 85.19 2/22 19-5
11 Johnny Bravo 0.933 1898.7 61.35 5/20 16-7
12 Pittsburgh Temper 0.908 1889.86 63.79 4/21 11-7
13 Furious George 0.881 1879.83 66.93 6/22 22-3
14 Rhino Slam! 0.803 1853.54 62.3 5/22 13-11
15 Doublewide 0.801 1872.29 87.91 3/27 5-8
16 Chain Lightning 0.671 1836.97 92.45 6/33 6-7
17 Sprout 0.417 1772.69 120.74 5/42 11-1
18 Patrol 0.239 1738.32 94.31 7/35 13-6
19 Voodoo 0.181 1735.56 75.19 9/31 18-11
20 Yogosbo 0.078 1733.03 46.71 11/27 27-5
21 Brickyard 0.072 1687.79 80.83 12/35 11-6
22 Vault 0.04 1665.92 76.75 11/44 26-1
23 CLE Smokestack 0.015 1635.66 74.35 13/46 18-2
24 Brickhouse 0.003 1568.2 82.47 12/54 11-7
25 Blueprint 0.001 1550.07 71.26 15/47 17-6
26 Clutch 0.001 1538.44 62.45 16/46 22-5
27 General Strike 0 1564.89 56.14 18/46 17-5
28 H.I.P 0 1548.55 67.05 18/52 28-3
29 Nain Rouge 0 1546.08 63.08 18/51 17-7
30 Black Market I 0 1535.38 73.09 17/55 16-9
31 Prairie Fire 0 1514.11 51.19 21/47 10-12
32 Freaks 0 1499.59 57.92 20/55 21-8
33 Mad Men 0 1474.41 52.92 21/52 22-12
34 Tanasi 0 1473.63 57.31 21/54 28-5
35 Nitro 0 1463.41 69.72 21/56 15-5
36 Lost Boys 0 1461.09 75.05 21/62 20-6
37 Garden State Ultimate 0 1455.02 66.47 18/59 12-8
38 Inception 0 1414.7 46 27/59 12-11
39 Blackfish 0 1412.76 56.25 24/62 10-2
40 MKE 0 1410.84 59.65 23/62 15-11
41 Shade 0 1410.03 65.66 21/63 19-7
42 CITYWIDE Special 0 1401.95 71.78 23/68 12-8
43 Lantern 0 1379.35 52.66 28/63 20-5
44 The Killjoys 0 1367.52 55.77 26/66 16-3
45 Haymaker 0 1361.42 55.93 29/68 15-10
46 Cryptic 0 1356.2 44.83 30/67 24-7
47 El Niño 0 1347.98 53.89 28/66 18-7
48 Colt 0 1344.87 68.77 26/75 20-6
49 Turbine 0 1332.69 66.47 31/78 11-8
50 Mallard 0 1329.58 52.96 31/70 12-7
51 Ghost Train 0 1310.85 34.44 37/64 15-10
52 Battery 0 1307.49 64.36 32/77 15-5
53 Streetgang 0 1289.61 61.68 32/76 12-9
54 Scythe 0 1288.06 49.52 37/79 20-13
55 Red Circus 0 1282.69 58.67 32/81 12-12
56 Big Wrench 0 1271.45 53.44 39/78 17-16
57 Swans 0 1271.27 47.2 37/74 24-11
58 Sundowners 0 1268.07 62.42 27/80 14-8
59 OAT 0 1257.83 93.18 27/97 12-5
60 Gaucho 0 1252.86 47.23 41/76 22-11
61 Ironmen 0 1228.16 46.78 44/82 24-8
62 UpRoar 0 1212.32 62.76 40/88 9-9
63 Deathsquad 0 1209.27 68.53 39/99 12-7
64 Riverside 0 1206.25 48.28 47/87 19-9
65 Omen 0 1202.52 61.12 40/91 17-8
66 Sawtooth 0 1188.67 61.38 46/92 15-10
67 ISO Atmo 0 1187.7 41.34 49/83 16-17
68 DeMo 0 1168.98 55.35 46/92 12-13
69 Richmond Floodwall 0 1165.17 50.86 49/91 12-13
70 Gamble 0 1160.52 61.89 46/97 18-10
71 Log Jam 0 1154.43 59.74 48/96 19-7
72 Texas United 0 1143.45 85.02 41/103 9-4
73 Bullet 0 1126.43 61.36 50/99 14-12
74 Black Lung 0 1126.33 61.11 53/102 20-9
75 Dreadnought 0 1115.25 57.31 49/97 19-4
76 Choice City Hops 0 1103.6 45.6 59/101 17-10
77 Harvey Cats 0 1090.81 56 58/102 12-9
78 Red Tide 0 1080.32 58.57 58/106 19-14
79 Dark Star 0 1077.26 75.97 50/114 6-7
80 HouSE 0 1070 47.89 63/105 13-15
81 Magma Bears 0 1068.2 64.71 57/106 17-11
82 PowderHogs 0 1064.11 54.44 56/104 8-16
83 Town Hall Stars 0 1057.04 53.62 61/109 15-8
84 Black Market II 0 1052.4 56.16 64/108 14-10
85 Timber 0 1041.48 56.98 63/113 14-14
86 Imperial 0 1039.84 48.59 67/106 13-15
87 THE BODY 0 1029.14 70.71 58/115 14-14
88 Burly 0 1028.39 84.75 57/121 8-4
89 Charleston Heat Stroke 0 1025.22 71.9 56/115 9-12
90 H.O.G. Ultimate 0 1007.12 58.25 67/113 18-14
91 John Doe 0 1006.94 51.17 69/113 14-6
92 Somerville BAG 0 997.97 50.78 72/111 18-9
93 Fathom 0 973.92 59.66 72/122 9-11
94 Genny The Boys 0 971.58 52.95 71/118 13-8
95 baNC 0 962.39 69.61 66/122 8-17
96 Papa Bear 0 959.79 44.23 75/115 17-12
97 Satellite 0 957.19 60.32 69/120 13-6
98 CaSTLe 0 953.91 52.67 76/115 11-12
99 Rush Hour ATL 0 947.33 47.56 78/117 18-17
100 Green River Swordfish 0 940.19 72.15 65/127 7-10
101 Cockfight 0 923.45 92.85 62/135 5-9
102 Swamp Horse 0 915.38 59.69 75/123 12-8
103 Dynasty 0 908.32 75.28 75/135 11-8
104 Rougaroux 0 905.03 65.97 75/128 11-15
105 Enigma 0 899.13 58.57 79/126 18-9
106 Kentucky Flying Circus 0 898.44 57.54 72/128 17-16
107 Kansas City Smokestack 0 896.64 48.49 81/122 11-17
108 Slag Dump 0 892.66 67.57 78/128 8-10
109 JAWN 0 886.57 54.93 82/127 13-9
110 Oakgrove Boys 0 866.96 59.45 84/128 6-11
111 Syndicate 0 856.08 59.02 86/129 8-12
112 Babe 0 841.9 45.71 88/127 16-9
113 Space Cowboys 0 834.13 50.3 94/127 9-19
114 Space Coast Ultimate 0 833.66 49.52 94/129 10-9
115 ScooberDivers 0 827.39 67.87 81/132 10-10
116 Glycerine 0 779.12 57.33 95/135 13-14
117 Overcast 0 777.22 59.3 100/135 11-12
118 Ditto A 0 774.9 63.15 95/138 11-8
119 Louisiana Second Line 0 768.57 67.44 88/137 6-8
120 Predator 0 766.7 70.94 86/138 11-9
121 Watchdogs 0 762.9 50.27 99/135 13-14
122 Foxtrot 0 761.61 51.9 102/137 11-16
123 Cojones 0 742.9 56.51 102/141 4-19
124 Ender's Outcasts 0 736.52 53.19 104/140 12-15
125 Supercell 0 711.52 54.27 104/140 11-11
126 One Night 0 709.33 56.46 103/139 12-15
127 OC Crows 0 695.41 50.24 111/144 4-18
128 Rip City 0 684.13 74.71 103/148 2-11
129 Adelphos 0 656.81 69.82 108/152 7-11
130 Hazard 0 656.28 66.01 107/148 9-10
131 Red Bat 0 639.73 53.96 107/147 5-19
132 Milwaukee Revival 0 637.91 47.79 113/147 6-19
133 Daybreak 0 636.59 50.13 113/147 1-18
134 Bomb Squad 0 622.61 58.35 114/150 7-12
135 Chimney 0 585.69 44.42 125/149 8-18
136 Helots 0 572.86 63.14 119/153 8-9
137 E.V.I.L. 0 566.45 55.77 122/154 9-16
138 Yacht Club 0 564.6 69.43 118/155 3-16
139 Battleship 0 552.69 71.16 119/155 7-12
140 Rampage 0 533.03 65.47 121/158 6-13
141 Thunder Boys 0 530.85 87.64 116/158 3-15
142 Midnight Meat Train 0 526.4 64.17 121/157 6-13
143 Trent's Team 0 518.85 98.02 112/161 3-11
144 Rawhide 0 484.37 60.68 128/158 5-10
145 Villains 0 473.7 57.63 129/160 3-10
146 Winc City Fog of War 0 464.6 64.12 128/158 3-13
147 NEO 0 463.49 50.36 131/157 9-18
148 War Machine 0 436.17 55.17 134/159 5-24
149 Red Imp.ala 0 431.21 63.59 131/161 5-19
150 Spring Break '93 0 427.19 68.93 131/163 5-14
151 Sky Hook 0 419.62 51.76 133/159 7-16
152 Alamode 0 405.69 56.42 137/160 8-18
153 Bearproof 0 391.47 65.27 137/162 4-13
154 Gentlemen's Club 0 384.5 90.51 126/164 2-11
155 Quaze 0 344.86 73.98 131/164 2-10
156 Messengers-B 0 298.96 65.47 140/164 3-22
157 Genny Lite 0 273.09 68.09 142/164 2-13
158 Surrilic Audovice 0 272.69 78.88 137/164 3-17
159 Traffic 0 262.59 88.15 142/164 2-14
160 Bird Patrol 0 262.11 58.65 149/164 4-15
161 Flying Dutchmen 0 247 71.87 142/164 2-17
162 Texas Toast 0 215.14 84.26 140/165 1-11
163 Black Market III 0 135.41 75.81 150/165 1-16
164 Buffalo Open 0 70.58 82.36 154/165 1-15
165 defunCT 0 -163.71 138.49 157/165 0-17

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)