Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2017 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
2 Great Lakes 1.97 HIGH FIVE 100.00%,   Chicago Machine 96.90%,  
2 Mid-Atlantic 2.04 Truck Stop 100.00%,   Patrol 98.30%,   Pittsburgh Temper 2.90%,   Medicine Men 2.30%,   Richmond Floodwall 0.10%,  
1 North Central 1.02 Sub Zero 99.00%,   Madison Club 3.00%,  
4 Northeast 3.97 Dig 100.00%,   Ironside 100.00%,   PoNY 99.80%,   GOAT 97.40%,  
1 Northwest 1.08 Sockeye 100.00%,   Furious George 5.00%,   Rhino 2.80%,   Voodoo 0.10%,  
2 South Central 1.98 Johnny Bravo 100.00%,   Doublewide 97.30%,   Inception 0.30%,  
2 Southeast 1.99 Ring of Fire 100.00%,   Florida United 92.70%,   Chain Lightning 6.70%,  
2 Southwest 1.95 Revolver 100.00%,   SoCal Condors 69.20%,   Guerrilla 26.20%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region GL MA NC NE NW SC SE SW
Initial 1.969 2.036 1.020 3.972 1.079 1.976 1.994 1.954
Autos (all @ 1) 0.969 1.036 0.020 2.972 0.079 0.976 0.994 0.954
Northeast (@ 2) 0.969 1.036 0.020 1.972 0.079 0.976 0.994 0.954
Northeast (@ 3) 0.969 1.036 0.020 0.972 0.079 0.976 0.994 0.954
Mid-Atlantic (@ 2) 0.969 0.036 0.020 0.972 0.079 0.976 0.994 0.954
Southeast (@ 2) 0.969 0.036 0.020 0.972 0.079 0.976 -0.006 0.954
South Central (@ 2) 0.969 0.036 0.020 0.972 0.079 -0.024 -0.006 0.954
Northeast (@ 4) 0.969 0.036 0.020 -0.028 0.079 -0.024 -0.006 0.954
Great Lakes (@ 2) -0.031 0.036 0.020 -0.028 0.079 -0.024 -0.006 0.954
Southwest (@ 2) -0.031 0.036 0.020 -0.028 0.079 -0.024 -0.006 -0.046
Total 2 2 1 4 1 2 2 2

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 Revolver 1 2251.96 63.51 1/6 16-3
2 Sockeye 1 2233.97 59.56 1/5 16-4
3 Ring of Fire 1 2166.78 61.77 1/11 11-3
4 Truck Stop 1 2071.07 49.88 1/13 15-5
5 HIGH FIVE 1 2067.15 49.38 1/12 14-6
6 Ironside 1 2024.25 56.77 1/15 17-8
7 Johnny Bravo 1 2010.56 65.43 2/16 12-7
8 Dig 1 1985.79 58.79 2/16 13-4
9 PoNY 0.998 1958.33 61.54 3/17 11-8
10 Sub Zero 0.99 1897.49 54.68 5/19 9-10
11 Patrol 0.983 1893.18 59.41 4/20 10-9
12 GOAT 0.974 1922.45 81.73 2/19 7-5
13 Doublewide 0.973 1909.72 79.86 4/21 8-5
14 Chicago Machine 0.969 1927.06 94.78 2/26 9-9
15 Florida United 0.927 1972.07 158.05 1/34 11-0
16 SoCal Condors 0.692 1786.23 56.62 10/24 7-5
17 Guerrilla 0.262 1728.41 57.92 11/27 7-13
18 Chain Lightning 0.067 1651.62 74.89 11/34 9-10
19 Furious George 0.05 1666.46 58.61 12/29 6-12
20 Madison Club 0.03 1666.07 48.73 15/27 6-12
21 Pittsburgh Temper 0.029 1665.62 52.02 14/28 5-7
22 Rhino 0.028 1614.42 69.91 14/33 10-9
23 Medicine Men 0.023 1662.25 46.11 15/28 15-11
24 Inception 0.003 1582.2 67.63 15/36 14-7
25 Richmond Floodwall 0.001 1515.26 57.11 16/39 16-4
26 Voodoo 0.001 1495.9 76.06 16/44 11-2
27 Smokestack 0 1539.02 45.45 18/38 11-8
28 Freaks 0 1501.66 51.84 21/41 21-4
29 Mad Men 0 1496.86 68.89 18/41 16-5
30 Dark Star 0 1455.23 56.97 22/43 18-1
31 Brickyard 0 1444.99 67.64 20/43 16-4
32 Sprawl 0 1432.04 56.6 22/45 13-0
33 Garden State Ultimate 0 1431.73 61.09 22/44 19-8
34 Prairie Fire 0 1427.87 58.2 22/43 5-14
35 Illusion 0 1414.64 86.65 19/49 18-4
36 Cash Crop 0 1379.65 33.99 28/43 8-3
37 Turbine 0 1371.68 59.54 25/47 11-8
38 Black Market 0 1371.09 68.22 23/52 20-8
39 Streetgang 0 1308.32 58.49 29/54 9-4
40 Ironmen 0 1264.69 48.35 33/55 14-10
41 Lost Boys 0 1259.67 55.2 30/58 14-7
42 Colt 0 1252.1 84.93 29/76 12-4
43 MKE 0 1237.16 62.74 33/62 17-5
44 CITYWIDE Special 0 1212.84 62.49 34/62 8-7
45 Sundowners 0 1209.8 98.81 29/82 9-4
46 Ham 0 1187.17 67.08 33/69 9-4
47 Big Wrench 0 1186.33 69.74 35/71 5-14
48 Haymaker 0 1165.84 77.48 33/78 13-9
49 Green River Swordfish 0 1157.51 73.8 37/72 8-5
50 Beachfront Property 0 1157.12 53.47 37/67 11-17
51 Blueprint 0 1105.85 53.57 42/76 15-9
52 Pesterbug 0 1105.14 63.46 38/84 15-5
53 Singlewide 0 1101.93 102.24 34/101 10-0
54 Sawtooth 0 1088.14 84.25 37/102 9-4
55 Kentucky Flying Circus 0 1086.66 52.67 42/75 17-10
56 Schweingeist 0 1086.59 71.01 40/77 11-8
57 John Doe 0 1085.91 86.06 38/89 7-7
58 CaSTLe 0 1080.13 73.1 39/85 6-9
59 Bullet 0 1076.75 51.25 41/77 12-15
60 Choice City Hops 0 1052.87 53.45 44/79 12-8
61 Four 0 1046.71 73.06 41/88 8-6
62 Bruises 0 1040.6 60.65 43/85 15-5
63 Imperial 0 1037.03 88.77 39/94 7-8
64 Republic 0 1024.39 82.4 39/95 7-6
65 Enigma 0 1006.43 49.24 50/84 11-15
66 Oakgrove Boys 0 992.16 82.66 39/105 8-6
67 Rip City Ultimate 0 973.7 53.15 51/93 12-13
68 Omen 0 970.5 65.89 44/97 16-6
69 Ghost Train 0 967.76 57.28 46/93 9-10
70 Wisconsin Hops 0 965.87 68.92 47/97 7-8
71 South Shore Line 0 953.56 74.77 44/99 7-7
72 Rougaroux 0 937.27 63.5 47/96 11-7
73 The Killjoys 0 927.96 73.27 50/98 6-8
74 Rush Hour 0 921.94 62.68 51/101 12-9
75 PowderHogs 0 919.94 87.31 47/107 7-4
76 Holy City Heathens 0 917.1 106.7 44/113 6-8
77 Mango Tree 0 916.04 57.89 54/104 6-7
78 Plex 0 911.15 53.7 59/101 6-9
79 Deathsquad 0 893.96 80.59 49/109 13-7
80 Scythe 0 886.07 61.53 53/102 11-6
81 Chimney 0 875.49 58.55 61/104 11-10
82 The Roofing Co. 0 869.98 78.89 49/113 11-8
83 BaNC 0 866.85 65.2 58/108 11-9
84 Cerberus 0 852.07 55.53 60/104 12-14
85 Shade 0 841.95 53.36 62/104 10-7
86 Papa Bear 0 839 76.11 54/115 7-3
87 houSE 0 829.58 71.52 59/112 5-10
88 Red Tide 0 813.47 59.52 66/111 11-8
89 DeMo 0 812.42 78.2 54/117 6-6
90 JAWN 0 808.76 58.19 65/111 9-11
91 Black Lung 0 797.94 69.93 61/117 3-10
92 Satellite 0 797.75 107.55 55/124 8-4
93 Dallas United: Desperados 0 797.73 86.7 59/117 7-7
94 SURE 0 795.07 59.81 69/109 5-7
95 Memphis Belle 0 780.61 78.91 59/119 5-6
96 Climax 0 762.88 99.35 56/119 6-8
97 Thundersnow 0 759.73 57.54 71/115 4-9
98 Union 0 731.14 51 77/117 6-13
99 Westchester Magma Bears 0 730.88 48.77 82/119 9-10
100 War Machine 0 729 64.22 70/118 8-12
101 Slag Dump 0 721.79 83.77 70/126 6-8
102 Dredge 0 720.39 84.12 64/123 8-6
103 UpRoar 0 692.55 35.28 88/115 14-4
104 Xavier's School for Gifted Youngsters 0 690.08 110.23 64/130 8-6
105 Dreadnought 0 688.9 60.86 75/119 4-6
106 Chattanooga Gentlemen's Club 0 685.93 63.62 77/122 7-12
107 ISO Atmo 0 666.46 65.24 81/121 6-13
108 Syndicate 0 663.96 53.68 82/120 9-10
109 Auxiliary 0 644.36 76.15 83/125 5-8
110 SmokeStack 0 636.05 46.61 95/121 8-9
111 Adelphos 0 633.71 77.16 81/124 9-5
112 Supercell 0 607.78 61.2 84/126 9-5
113 Somerville BAG 0 607.7 63.21 90/126 6-8
114 DTH 0 593.25 73.35 89/127 5-9
115 Breakers 0 578.08 78.41 86/133 7-12
116 Watchdogs 0 573.38 61.1 97/127 7-5
117 H.O.G. Ultimate 0 566.14 62.41 95/131 5-16
118 Midnight Meat Train 0 523.73 105.73 89/135 6-8
119 Cream City Crooks 0 492.03 57.81 106/131 5-16
120 Connecticut Connvicts 0 489.48 76.54 95/135 8-12
121 Low Five 0 487.48 55.24 103/131 5-13
122 Dirty D 0 453.46 79.45 102/137 4-8
123 El Niño 0 442.38 45.7 111/134 8-3
124 Blade 0 440.49 99.59 96/141 5-10
125 Helots 0 428.48 64.52 107/136 5-7
126 Spring Creek Ascension 0 398.01 59.75 111/136 6-5
127 Mutiny 0 395.01 66.24 107/137 3-8
128 Garden Party 0 372.31 55.57 114/137 8-12
129 Shrimp Boat 0 367.12 76.88 107/140 5-9
130 Dallas United: Outlaws 0 359.34 33.77 121/134 5-10
131 Deaf Fruit 0 287.83 52.11 123/139 5-5
132 AK Pipeline 0 277.03 57.53 122/141 5-15
133 Hippie Mafia 0 268.87 58.56 120/142 4-8
134 Dallas United: Neato Banditos 0 254.92 74.2 121/143 5-10
135 Rawhide 0 236.49 60.43 126/142 3-11
136 Black Market II 0 219.12 82.54 121/144 6-13
137 Bomb Squad 0 144.69 84.87 126/145 1-11
138 Winc City Fog of War 0 140.5 62.91 128/144 2-10
139 Hammerhead 0 126.28 62.5 128/145 3-12
140 East Rock Candy Mountain 0 120.78 90.12 123/145 2-11
141 Club M - Magma 0 120.06 63.21 128/144 2-11
142 SA Spares 0 41.91 89.99 133/145 2-8
143 Tyranny 0 -1.31 109.21 131/145 2-9
144 Space Coast Ultimate 0 -14.67 99.34 130/145 2-9
145 The Bucket Brigade 0 -197.7 95.06 139/145 1-9

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)