Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2024 Club/2025 College Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
1 Great Lakes 0.56 GOAT 55.10%,   Haymaker 0.60%,   Flying Dutchmen 0.10%,   Houndd 0.10%,  
3 Mid-Atlantic 3.61 Truck Stop 99.90%,   Philadelphia Pacmen 99.60%,   Vault 82.10%,   Pittsburgh Temper 79.20%,   Oak Grove Boys 0.10%,  
1 North Central 1.57 Sub Zero 98.60%,   General Strike 42.90%,   Mallard 15.60%,  
3 Northeast 3.08 PoNY 100.00%,   DiG 100.00%,   Phoenix 32.50%,   Mephisto 31.20%,   Blueprint 23.00%,   Red Tide 16.40%,   Scoop 4.30%,   Club M - Manic 0.30%,  
3 Northwest 3.47 Rhino Slam! 100.00%,   Sockeye 100.00%,   Furious George 78.80%,   Shrimp 60.10%,   Dark Star 8.00%,  
1 South Central 0.02 Johnny Bravo-Varsity 1.20%,   Doublewide 0.40%,  
2 Southeast 1.69 Ring of Fire 62.10%,   Florida Untied 50.60%,   Chain Lightning 43.80%,   Raleigh-Durham United 12.90%,   Alliance 0.10%,  
2 Southwest 2 Revolver 100.00%,   SoCal Condors 99.90%,   Nighthawk 0.50%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region GL MA NC NE NW SC SE SW
Initial 0.559 3.609 1.571 3.077 3.469 0.016 1.695 2.004
Autos (all @ 1) -0.441 2.609 0.571 2.077 2.469 -0.984 0.695 1.004
Mid-Atlantic (@ 2) -0.441 1.609 0.571 2.077 2.469 -0.984 0.695 1.004
Northwest (@ 2) -0.441 1.609 0.571 2.077 1.469 -0.984 0.695 1.004
Northeast (@ 2) -0.441 1.609 0.571 1.077 1.469 -0.984 0.695 1.004
Mid-Atlantic (@ 3) -0.441 0.609 0.571 1.077 1.469 -0.984 0.695 1.004
Northwest (@ 3) -0.441 0.609 0.571 1.077 0.469 -0.984 0.695 1.004
Northeast (@ 3) -0.441 0.609 0.571 0.077 0.469 -0.984 0.695 1.004
Southwest (@ 2) -0.441 0.609 0.571 0.077 0.469 -0.984 0.695 0.004
Southeast (@ 2) -0.441 0.609 0.571 0.077 0.469 -0.984 -0.305 0.004
Total 1 3 1 3 3 1 2 2

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 Revolver 1 2840.4 99.05 1/4 6-0
2 PoNY 1 2610.38 70 1/6 6-0
3 Rhino Slam! 1 2592.61 122.79 1/11 10-2
4 Sockeye 1 2433.84 103.39 2/15 10-3
5 DiG 1 2376.2 77.87 2/15 5-1
6 SoCal Condors 0.999 2397.47 74.32 2/17 4-2
7 Truck Stop 0.999 2336.06 57.89 3/17 8-2
8 Philadelphia Pacmen 0.996 2351.9 101.84 2/18 5-1
9 Sub Zero 0.986 2211.81 45.08 6/21 3-3
10 Vault 0.821 2180.5 81.93 4/26 9-3
11 Pittsburgh Temper 0.792 2198.99 127.61 2/31 5-1
12 Furious George 0.788 2156.5 67.39 5/27 2-4
13 Ring of Fire 0.621 2127.47 104.66 4/32 3-3
14 Shrimp 0.601 2118.94 66.58 6/27 3-3
15 GOAT 0.551 2117.84 94.09 5/30 7-5
16 Florida Untied 0.506 2100.6 90.2 7/32 7-5
17 Chain Lightning 0.438 2090.61 88.42 7/31 3-3
18 General Strike 0.429 2084.84 92.03 6/34 3-3
19 Phoenix 0.325 2053.39 110.9 6/37 4-2
20 Mephisto 0.312 2069.49 66.46 8/30 8-4
21 Blueprint 0.23 2053.75 69.26 9/30 8-5
22 Red Tide 0.164 1911.8 202.01 3/63 7-0
23 Mallard 0.156 1956.06 152.9 3/44 5-7
24 Raleigh-Durham United 0.129 1977.28 116.31 7/40 3-3
25 Dark Star 0.08 2020.69 52.15 11/30 7-6
26 Scoop 0.043 1891.69 120.81 8/44 3-3
27 Johnny Bravo-Varsity 0.012 2008.2 36.01 14/29 2-4
28 Haymaker 0.006 1737.07 141.02 14/63 1-4
29 Nighthawk 0.005 1733.41 128.61 9/55 2-4
30 Doublewide 0.004 1864.47 79.5 14/40 2-3
31 Club M - Manic 0.003 1771.68 107.78 13/49 1-5
32 Flying Dutchmen 0.001 1850.56 74.36 16/40 4-8
33 Oak Grove Boys 0.001 1785.36 92.22 16/48 5-8
34 Alliance 0.001 1765.83 94.13 14/47 3-3
35 Houndd 0.001 1638.21 120.46 15/64 12-1
36 Shade 0 1867.65 68.66 19/39 5-7
37 Lounar 0 1798.58 82.64 19/41 8-4
38 Sprout 0 1795.23 70.07 19/41 8-5
39 Garden State Ultimate 0 1662.49 78.83 27/53 1-9
40 Colt 0 1659.33 109.18 19/57 10-3
41 Sawtooth 0 1545.11 109.39 24/63 3-3
42 Switchback 0 1534.59 65.83 35/57 3-9
43 Wavestorms 0 1519.16 153.48 23/80 6-0
44 Fungi 0 1500.47 67.29 35/57 7-5
45 Tanasi 0 1493.56 101.93 33/66 6-1
46 baNC 0 1490.35 69.7 35/60 9-1
47 Alamode 0 1485.87 59.5 36/57 8-4
48 Lost Boys 0 1478.73 74.72 36/62 10-1
49 Colonels 0 1478.05 64.88 36/64 7-0
50 Lantern 0 1398.07 119.01 35/78 4-3
51 OAT 0 1379.34 73.15 39/70 5-1
52 Magma Bears 0 1371.66 101.91 36/79 3-3
53 Big Wrench 0 1353.89 98.14 37/76 5-1
54 Little Red Wagon 0 1336.48 82.97 39/76 7-2
55 Make it Rain 0 1312.46 95.49 39/78 2-4
56 DAPPER 0 1303.23 65.89 45/70 4-2
57 Ascension 0 1296.71 105.1 39/80 4-3
58 Triumph 0 1283.56 78.63 40/79 9-3
59 Drought 0 1242.82 92.93 45/84 0-6
60 Red Lotus 0 1240.99 80.14 46/81 8-4
61 Junco 0 1218.97 118.44 41/88 2-4
62 Trident 0 1211.81 66.46 50/83 6-1
63 ISO Atmo 0 1196.53 59.26 51/79 14-5
64 Zyzzyva 0 1193.91 64.13 50/79 4-3
65 H.I.P 0 1182.65 133.07 44/96 5-1
66 BAG 0 1171.45 80.46 48/85 4-3
67 Cowtown Cannons 0 1137.01 87.96 52/88 8-4
68 Odyssey 0 1130.5 70.59 52/85 7-5
69 Zoboomafoo 0 1126.56 81 52/88 8-5
70 Chimney 0 1115.69 65.67 53/86 8-5
71 Town Hall Stars 0 1111.68 71.06 53/89 9-3
72 John Doe 0 1109.5 84.89 53/93 9-3
73 Timber 0 1107.36 105.08 49/95 4-7
74 MOB Ultimate 0 1083.84 121.61 45/100 4-0
75 Atlanta Arson 0 1075.29 107.73 49/102 3-2
76 SUPA FC 0 1074.75 74.99 53/94 3-1
77 Alibi 0 1057.98 57.88 60/92 5-7
78 Crypt 0 1046.75 61.19 61/95 8-4
79 Brawl 0 1045.98 78.87 55/95 10-2
80 Sprawl 0 1015.97 104.1 52/100 5-1
81 Skeleton Squad 0 993.99 70.86 57/99 3-4
82 Knights of Ni 0 976.76 61.95 65/97 7-5
83 Roundhouse 0 925.75 59.58 70/98 4-2
84 Battery 0 912.42 81.44 68/103 3-3
85 Black Lung 0 895.61 45.25 76/99 6-6
86 Hooch 0 872.98 78.83 72/108 5-5
87 Seven Gills 0 868.6 199.93 45/134 1-5
88 Psychedelic 0 856.8 98.75 60/114 2-3
89 Dreadnought 0 855.92 53.93 78/104 2-0
90 El Niño 0 853.74 77.58 70/110 3-4
91 DeMo 0 852.12 171.21 49/127 6-6
92 EZ 0 847.84 101.56 70/118 3-1
93 OPE 0 832.21 57.99 76/107 6-5
94 UpRoar 0 821.08 57.11 80/110 6-7
95 Pittsburgh Stealers 0 802.8 86.84 74/115 5-7
96 Queen City Kings 0 797.87 96.86 71/116 7-3
97 BARNSTORM 0 775.89 98.26 72/118 4-3
98 Hazard 0 769.58 75.81 79/116 4-2
99 Riverside 0 765.47 80.61 76/117 7-6
100 Nomads 0 744.86 112.59 73/122 3-3
101 NOx 0 739.53 121.21 69/131 4-3
102 Harvest Moon 0 706.07 56.89 89/117 4-2
103 Scythe 0 672.3 74.96 84/124 3-3
104 Charleston Heat Stroke 0 655.47 40.28 95/116 3-7
105 Beef Depot 0 642.66 91.29 87/127 4-4
106 Winc City Fog 0 626.71 100.14 84/130 2-7
107 STL Moonar 0 618.59 80.89 87/127 2-4
108 Fat Stacks 0 608.85 78.34 90/126 3-9
109 Texas Duffy 0 607.18 114.11 83/134 2-5
110 Crossfire 0 596.9 148.67 70/138 1-5
111 Battleship 0 581.36 118.51 82/135 4-2
112 Carbon 0 579.67 52.89 97/126 4-8
113 Motive 0 576.84 129.01 82/138 1-4
114 Bomb Squad 0 555.34 88.93 94/131 2-6
115 Rubicon Rapids 0 539.14 80.18 93/129 2-4
116 NOMAD 0 535.34 103.97 92/136 3-9
117 Cookie Mon$terz 0 522.89 107.5 89/136 5-2
118 Green Mountain Boys 0 518.43 33.62 105/124 1-3
119 On Ramp 0 511.3 129.52 76/138 3-2
120 Forge 0 450.01 70.36 104/133 4-8
121 MBTA 0 425.54 123.98 94/139 1-4
122 Tennessee Folklore 0 421.62 78.05 101/137 4-9
123 BDC 0 399.42 153.54 84/140 1-2
124 Mischief 0 397.71 84.95 98/138 3-9
125 Spring Break '93 0 384.54 164.25 82/140 1-4
126 Buffalo Frostbite 0 381.91 87.82 102/139 1-4
127 Scoop 0 362.31 56.98 112/137 3-9
128 Second Nature 0 342.95 67.85 113/136 4-3
129 Rawhide 0 332.2 53.94 116/136 1-1
130 Monsoon 0 306.79 0.21 124/134 0-2
131 PARLAY 0 296.42 89.48 110/139 2-8
132 Diesel 0 270.04 110.09 108/140 2-9
133 San Antonio Warhawks 0 223.74 158.76 101/140 2-3
134 Alliance 2 0 222.44 88.49 119/140 3-4
135 Enigma 0 217.83 187.96 96/140 1-5
136 Dallas Delinquents 0 180.11 92.92 110/140 2-9
137 Supercell 0 179.65 70.03 122/140 1-7
138 Beef Depot 0 123.89 51.15 131/140 3-5
139 Gambit 0 87.43 78.81 127/140 0-11
140 Nocturnal 0 -50.83 110.74 131/140 2-5

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)