#14 California-San Diego (18-13)

avg: 2142.18  •  sd: 51.87  •  top 16/20: 99.7%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
1 British Columbia** Loss 4-15 2170.47 Ignored Jan 27th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
28 California Loss 11-12 1731.51 Jan 27th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
25 Utah Loss 9-12 1540.66 Jan 27th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
30 Cal Poly-SLO Loss 7-11 1375.01 Jan 28th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
70 Northwestern** Win 15-5 2019.28 Ignored Jan 28th Santa Barbara Invite 2024
20 California-Davis Win 12-9 2326.8 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2024
4 Oregon Loss 9-14 2095.18 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2024
115 Denver** Win 15-2 1719.61 Ignored Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2024
5 Stanford Loss 6-12 1940.57 Feb 18th Presidents Day Invite 2024
15 Western Washington Win 13-12 2257.74 Feb 18th Presidents Day Invite 2024
9 California-Santa Barbara Win 10-9 2451.41 Feb 18th Presidents Day Invite 2024
25 Utah Win 12-4 2486.02 Feb 18th Presidents Day Invite 2024
4 Oregon Loss 4-15 1969.05 Feb 19th Presidents Day Invite 2024
9 California-Santa Barbara Loss 8-12 1885.25 Feb 19th Presidents Day Invite 2024
1 British Columbia Loss 6-11 2223.77 Mar 2nd Stanford Invite 2024
28 California Win 7-4 2352.67 Mar 2nd Stanford Invite 2024
29 UCLA Win 12-4 2453.18 Mar 2nd Stanford Invite 2024
53 Texas Win 10-2 2161.29 Mar 2nd Stanford Invite 2024
2 Vermont Loss 7-10 2287.5 Mar 3rd Stanford Invite 2024
17 California-Santa Cruz Loss 8-9 1953.47 Mar 3rd Stanford Invite 2024
22 Pittsburgh Win 10-9 2059.21 Mar 3rd Stanford Invite 2024
47 Southern California Win 14-5 2236.66 Apr 13th SoCal D I Womens Conferences 2024
30 Cal Poly-SLO Win 10-7 2231.57 Apr 13th SoCal D I Womens Conferences 2024
165 Cal State-Long Beach** Win 15-1 1399.57 Ignored Apr 13th SoCal D I Womens Conferences 2024
29 UCLA Win 11-7 2320.07 Apr 14th SoCal D I Womens Conferences 2024
9 California-Santa Barbara Loss 7-8 2201.41 Apr 14th SoCal D I Womens Conferences 2024
69 Grand Canyon Win 12-7 1956.88 Apr 27th Southwest D I College Womens Regionals 2024
29 UCLA Win 8-7 1978.18 Apr 27th Southwest D I College Womens Regionals 2024
9 California-Santa Barbara Loss 8-9 2201.41 Apr 27th Southwest D I College Womens Regionals 2024
20 California-Davis Win 7-6 2106.44 Apr 28th Southwest D I College Womens Regionals 2024
17 California-Santa Cruz Win 13-9 2497.03 Apr 28th Southwest D I College Womens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)