#38 American (18-2)

avg: 1723.68  •  sd: 90.9  •  top 16/20: 0.3%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
190 Michigan-B** Win 13-0 1153.14 Ignored Feb 17th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1 2024
188 Wake Forest** Win 13-0 1166.45 Ignored Feb 17th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1 2024
63 Tennessee Win 10-6 1974.28 Feb 18th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1 2024
114 Richmond Win 13-1 1726.29 Feb 18th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1 2024
50 Georgetown Loss 5-6 1476.27 Feb 18th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1 2024
156 George Washington** Win 12-1 1440.57 Ignored Mar 2nd Cherry Blossom Classic 2024
240 American-B** Win 13-0 572.93 Ignored Mar 2nd Cherry Blossom Classic 2024
208 Brown-B** Win 13-3 968.51 Ignored Mar 3rd Cherry Blossom Classic 2024
163 Catholic Win 11-5 1412.68 Mar 3rd Cherry Blossom Classic 2024
94 Lehigh Win 9-6 1694.26 Mar 3rd Cherry Blossom Classic 2024
152 Delaware** Win 14-6 1465.51 Ignored Apr 20th Colonial D I Womens Conferences 2024
98 Maryland Win 11-8 1600.31 Apr 20th Colonial D I Womens Conferences 2024
125 Johns Hopkins Win 8-6 1362.67 Apr 20th Colonial D I Womens Conferences 2024
50 Georgetown Win 12-9 1946.64 Apr 21st Colonial D I Womens Conferences 2024
104 Appalachian State Win 12-7 1717.21 May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2024
103 Clemson Win 11-8 1565.34 May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2024
50 Georgetown Win 11-7 2068.16 May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2024
41 South Carolina Win 15-13 1913.12 May 5th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2024
62 Duke Win 13-11 1712.9 May 5th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2024
6 North Carolina** Loss 6-15 1899.4 Ignored May 5th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)