#27 North Carolina-Wilmington (22-16)

avg: 1995.28  •  sd: 40.96  •  top 16/20: 4.6%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
83 Indiana Win 12-9 1926.68 Jan 27th Carolina Kickoff 2024
90 Tennessee Win 15-6 2143.84 Jan 27th Carolina Kickoff 2024
42 South Carolina Loss 14-15 1721.77 Jan 27th Carolina Kickoff 2024
72 Appalachian State Win 15-8 2193.46 Jan 28th Carolina Kickoff 2024
31 North Carolina-Charlotte Loss 12-15 1620.4 Jan 28th Carolina Kickoff 2024
16 Penn State Loss 9-14 1674.36 Jan 28th Carolina Kickoff 2024
83 Indiana Win 14-10 1980.02 Feb 10th Queen City Tune Up 2024
26 McGill Loss 12-14 1776.16 Feb 10th Queen City Tune Up 2024
2 North Carolina Loss 10-12 2248.21 Feb 10th Queen City Tune Up 2024
57 Virginia Win 13-10 2066.97 Feb 10th Queen City Tune Up 2024
42 South Carolina Win 15-8 2411.58 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up 2024
16 Penn State Loss 8-12 1707.07 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up 2024
48 Auburn Win 12-6 2361.6 Feb 24th Easterns Qualifier 2024
74 Cincinnati Win 12-7 2134.51 Feb 24th Easterns Qualifier 2024
54 Emory Win 12-9 2100.69 Feb 24th Easterns Qualifier 2024
70 James Madison Win 12-8 2074.34 Feb 24th Easterns Qualifier 2024
31 North Carolina-Charlotte Win 10-8 2183.56 Feb 25th Easterns Qualifier 2024
162 Rutgers** Win 13-5 1882.55 Ignored Feb 25th Easterns Qualifier 2024
16 Penn State Win 12-11 2273.22 Feb 25th Easterns Qualifier 2024
42 South Carolina Win 12-8 2287.92 Feb 25th Easterns Qualifier 2024
3 Georgia Loss 9-13 2038.34 Mar 30th Easterns 2024
23 Tufts Loss 8-13 1527.9 Mar 30th Easterns 2024
6 Pittsburgh Loss 6-12 1753.51 Mar 30th Easterns 2024
36 Wisconsin Win 12-8 2335.06 Mar 30th Easterns 2024
11 Minnesota Loss 12-15 1939.05 Mar 31st Easterns 2024
42 South Carolina Loss 11-13 1617.93 Mar 31st Easterns 2024
16 Penn State Loss 7-14 1565.34 Mar 31st Easterns 2024
146 Clemson** Win 15-6 1918.35 Ignored Apr 13th Carolina D I Mens Conferences 2024
50 Duke Win 13-6 2372.52 Apr 13th Carolina D I Mens Conferences 2024
215 East Carolina** Win 12-4 1665.59 Ignored Apr 13th Carolina D I Mens Conferences 2024
2 North Carolina Loss 7-15 1886.33 Apr 13th Carolina D I Mens Conferences 2024
2 North Carolina Loss 5-15 1886.33 Apr 14th Carolina D I Mens Conferences 2024
14 North Carolina State Win 13-11 2400.31 Apr 14th Carolina D I Mens Conferences 2024
147 Maryland-Baltimore County Win 15-8 1880.67 May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2024
14 North Carolina State Loss 12-13 2046.47 May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2024
44 Virginia Tech Win 15-11 2195.57 May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2024
31 North Carolina-Charlotte Loss 9-10 1795.89 May 5th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2024
57 Virginia Win 13-12 1863.83 May 5th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)