#199 Occidental (7-7)

avg: 1058.14  •  sd: 62.24  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
43 Whitman Loss 10-13 1436.73 Feb 8th DIII Grand Prix 2025
295 Reed Win 11-10 838.31 Feb 8th DIII Grand Prix 2025
141 Puget Sound Loss 8-13 791.9 Feb 8th DIII Grand Prix 2025
230 Air Force Win 13-9 1346.47 Feb 9th DIII Grand Prix 2025
89 Colorado College Loss 6-13 885.28 Feb 9th DIII Grand Prix 2025
319 Pacific Lutheran Win 13-8 1097.3 Feb 9th DIII Grand Prix 2025
333 Cal State-Long Beach Win 11-8 931.28 Mar 29th Southwest Showdown 2025
107 Claremont Loss 6-13 828.35 Mar 29th Southwest Showdown 2025
85 Southern California Loss 10-13 1171.19 Mar 29th Southwest Showdown 2025
333 Cal State-Long Beach Win 13-5 1165.67 Mar 30th Southwest Showdown 2025
301 California-Santa Barbara-B Win 13-1 1270.56 Mar 30th Southwest Showdown 2025
214 UCLA-B Loss 10-11 882.79 Mar 30th Southwest Showdown 2025
- Caltech** Win 15-4 600 Ignored Apr 19th Southwest D III Mens Conferences 2025
107 Claremont Loss 11-14 1115.01 Apr 19th Southwest D III Mens Conferences 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)