#19 Vermont (15-17)

avg: 1998.44  •  sd: 50.93  •  top 16/20: 69.1%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
128 Central Florida** Win 13-0 1927.67 Ignored Jan 31st Florida Warm Up 2025
14 Texas Win 13-11 2271.07 Jan 31st Florida Warm Up 2025
50 Tulane Loss 10-11 1583.09 Jan 31st Florida Warm Up 2025
7 Brigham Young Loss 7-13 1654.97 Feb 1st Florida Warm Up 2025
44 Wisconsin Win 13-8 2250.36 Feb 1st Florida Warm Up 2025
2 Massachusetts Loss 8-13 1873.35 Feb 1st Florida Warm Up 2025
26 Michigan Loss 11-12 1778.48 Feb 2nd Florida Warm Up 2025
30 Pittsburgh Loss 12-13 1731.29 Feb 2nd Florida Warm Up 2025
5 Carleton College Loss 12-13 2212.82 Mar 1st Smoky Mountain Invite 2025
17 Georgia Win 15-8 2579.41 Mar 1st Smoky Mountain Invite 2025
9 Oregon State Loss 9-10 1991.46 Mar 1st Smoky Mountain Invite 2025
82 Tennessee Win 13-7 2083.4 Mar 1st Smoky Mountain Invite 2025
13 Northeastern Win 15-10 2514.58 Mar 2nd Smoky Mountain Invite 2025
1 Oregon Loss 14-15 2249.43 Mar 2nd Smoky Mountain Invite 2025
2 Massachusetts Loss 10-15 1915.91 Mar 2nd Smoky Mountain Invite 2025
26 Michigan Win 13-9 2322.04 Mar 29th Easterns 2025
28 Minnesota Win 13-10 2195.29 Mar 29th Easterns 2025
3 North Carolina Loss 8-13 1842.7 Mar 29th Easterns 2025
20 Tufts Loss 9-10 1870.17 Mar 29th Easterns 2025
28 Minnesota Loss 14-15 1742.14 Mar 30th Easterns 2025
48 North Carolina-Wilmington Loss 11-12 1606.26 Mar 30th Easterns 2025
13 Northeastern Loss 12-15 1760.48 Mar 30th Easterns 2025
18 Brown Win 12-11 2137.59 Apr 12th Greater New England D I Mens Conferences 2025
148 Rhode Island** Win 15-3 1865.72 Ignored Apr 12th Greater New England D I Mens Conferences 2025
2 Massachusetts Loss 9-14 1895.64 Apr 13th Greater New England D I Mens Conferences 2025
18 Brown Loss 12-15 1712.1 May 3rd New England D I College Mens Regionals 2025
70 Dartmouth Win 15-9 2111.44 May 3rd New England D I College Mens Regionals 2025
284 Northeastern-C** Win 15-5 1357.13 Ignored May 3rd New England D I College Mens Regionals 2025
20 Tufts Loss 7-11 1528.27 May 3rd New England D I College Mens Regionals 2025
18 Brown Win 15-13 2226.77 May 4th New England D I College Mens Regionals 2025
20 Tufts Win 10-8 2257.83 May 4th New England D I College Mens Regionals 2025
91 Vermont-B Win 15-7 2078.29 May 4th New England D I College Mens Regionals 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)