#14 North Carolina State (26-11)

avg: 2171.47  •  sd: 35.02  •  top 16/20: 99.6%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
114 Davidson Win 15-8 2002.08 Jan 27th Carolina Kickoff 2024
87 Georgetown** Win 15-4 2154.4 Ignored Jan 27th Carolina Kickoff 2024
16 Penn State Win 14-12 2369.18 Jan 27th Carolina Kickoff 2024
72 Appalachian State Win 15-10 2082.26 Jan 28th Carolina Kickoff 2024
2 North Carolina Loss 10-15 2032.73 Jan 28th Carolina Kickoff 2024
31 North Carolina-Charlotte Win 15-9 2436.37 Jan 28th Carolina Kickoff 2024
72 Appalachian State Win 15-7 2228.65 Feb 10th Queen City Tune Up 2024
70 James Madison Win 15-9 2148.67 Feb 10th Queen City Tune Up 2024
96 Notre Dame** Win 15-5 2130.99 Ignored Feb 10th Queen City Tune Up 2024
35 Ohio State Win 13-12 2028.25 Feb 10th Queen City Tune Up 2024
13 Alabama-Huntsville Loss 12-14 1976.26 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up 2024
26 McGill Win 10-8 2259.79 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up 2024
16 Penn State Loss 13-15 1934.04 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up 2024
1 Colorado Loss 11-15 2118.57 Mar 2nd Smoky Mountain Invite 2024
3 Georgia Loss 12-13 2331.9 Mar 2nd Smoky Mountain Invite 2024
11 Minnesota Win 13-10 2567.69 Mar 2nd Smoky Mountain Invite 2024
23 Tufts Win 13-9 2442.62 Mar 2nd Smoky Mountain Invite 2024
11 Minnesota Win 15-11 2620.71 Mar 3rd Smoky Mountain Invite 2024
90 Tennessee Win 15-9 2059.32 Mar 3rd Smoky Mountain Invite 2024
23 Tufts Win 15-10 2477.66 Mar 3rd Smoky Mountain Invite 2024
12 Carleton College Loss 10-12 1986.49 Mar 30th Easterns 2024
4 Massachusetts Loss 10-13 2125.96 Mar 30th Easterns 2024
18 Northeastern Loss 12-13 1983.05 Mar 30th Easterns 2024
42 South Carolina Win 13-10 2174.91 Mar 30th Easterns 2024
37 Michigan Win 14-11 2199.08 Mar 31st Easterns 2024
11 Minnesota Loss 10-15 1785.94 Mar 31st Easterns 2024
16 Penn State Win 15-13 2362.4 Mar 31st Easterns 2024
72 Appalachian State Win 14-9 2102.52 Apr 13th Carolina D I Mens Conferences 2024
196 Charleston** Win 15-3 1733.53 Ignored Apr 13th Carolina D I Mens Conferences 2024
31 North Carolina-Charlotte Win 11-10 2045.89 Apr 13th Carolina D I Mens Conferences 2024
27 North Carolina-Wilmington Loss 11-13 1766.44 Apr 14th Carolina D I Mens Conferences 2024
31 North Carolina-Charlotte Win 15-10 2374.5 Apr 14th Carolina D I Mens Conferences 2024
104 Liberty Win 15-8 2055.53 May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2024
59 William & Mary Win 15-10 2180.9 May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2024
27 North Carolina-Wilmington Win 13-12 2120.28 May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2024
2 North Carolina Loss 11-15 2105.17 May 5th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2024
31 North Carolina-Charlotte Win 15-5 2520.89 May 5th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)