#23 Nightlock (8-4)

avg: 1293.19  •  sd: 172.66  •  top 16/20: 11.8%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
57 FAB Win 13-6 1149.02 Jun 28th Eugene Summer Solstice 2025
72 Seattle Soul** Win 13-1 177.15 Ignored Jun 28th Eugene Summer Solstice 2025
16 Schwa Loss 7-8 1429.67 Jun 28th Eugene Summer Solstice 2025
71 Portland Rain Check** Win 13-0 382.59 Ignored Jun 28th Eugene Summer Solstice 2025
69 Seven Devils** Win 13-1 549.02 Ignored Jun 29th Eugene Summer Solstice 2025
70 Oregon Downpour** Win 13-3 499.47 Ignored Jun 29th Eugene Summer Solstice 2025
26 Nemesis Win 12-10 1445.5 Jul 12th 2025 Pro Elite Challenge West
14 Seattle Riot Loss 8-15 1043.08 Jul 12th 2025 Pro Elite Challenge West
40 Vengeance Win 10-5 1421.5 Jul 12th 2025 Pro Elite Challenge West
16 Schwa Loss 8-10 1292 Jul 13th 2025 Pro Elite Challenge West
33 Pop Win 14-8 1584.01 Jul 13th 2025 Pro Elite Challenge West
14 Seattle Riot Loss 6-13 1007.89 Jul 13th 2025 Pro Elite Challenge West
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)