#19 Heist (5-7)

avg: 1468.08  •  sd: 68.3  •  top 16/20: 15.2%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
1 BENT Loss 8-15 1663.71 Jun 28th 2025 Pro Elite Challenge East
9 Colorado Kelp Loss 3-15 1251.3 Jun 28th 2025 Pro Elite Challenge East
22 Siege Loss 10-11 1186.15 Jun 28th 2025 Pro Elite Challenge East
28 Stellar Win 15-7 1773.85 Jun 29th 2025 Pro Elite Challenge East
18 Outrage Loss 10-14 1117.2 Jun 29th 2025 Pro Elite Challenge East
29 Wicked Win 11-8 1510.76 Jun 29th 2025 Pro Elite Challenge East
31 Agency Win 15-9 1630.02 Jul 12th 2025 Select Flight Invite East
38 Juice Box Win 11-5 1499.75 Jul 12th 2025 Select Flight Invite East
1 BENT** Loss 5-13 1628.52 Ignored Jul 13th 2025 Select Flight Invite East
10 Starling Loss 6-14 1202.92 Jul 13th 2025 Select Flight Invite East
22 Siege Win 13-7 1868.68 Jul 13th 2025 Select Flight Invite East
10 Starling Loss 7-10 1413.25 Jul 13th 2025 Select Flight Invite East
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)