#166 Pennsylvania (12-18)

avg: 1194.08  •  sd: 56.48  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
220 Christopher Newport Loss 8-13 485.2 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
285 Navy Win 13-4 1350.44 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
91 Vermont-B Loss 7-12 957.78 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
52 William & Mary Loss 3-13 1093.54 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
116 Boston University Loss 4-15 763.62 Jan 26th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
173 East Carolina Win 13-8 1662.53 Jan 26th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
155 Johns Hopkins Loss 4-11 638.52 Jan 26th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
119 Connecticut Loss 8-9 1225.18 Feb 8th NJ Warmup 2025
96 Lehigh Loss 12-13 1339.61 Feb 8th NJ Warmup 2025
248 NYU Win 13-4 1475.07 Feb 8th NJ Warmup 2025
100 Syracuse Loss 11-12 1328.35 Feb 8th NJ Warmup 2025
64 Georgetown Loss 5-13 1028.4 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
229 Harvard Win 10-7 1328.7 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
248 NYU Win 8-5 1328.67 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
113 West Chester Loss 5-14 775.96 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
162 Delaware Win 11-9 1462.49 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
93 Yale Loss 9-12 1131.39 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
266 Drexel Win 9-6 1223.87 Apr 12th East Penn D I Mens Conferences
96 Lehigh Loss 10-11 1339.61 Apr 12th East Penn D I Mens Conferences
332 Villanova** Win 13-4 1169.58 Ignored Apr 12th East Penn D I Mens Conferences
74 Temple Loss 7-13 1026.53 Apr 12th East Penn D I Mens Conferences
266 Drexel Win 11-3 1405.3 Apr 13th East Penn D I Mens Conferences
113 West Chester Win 12-10 1614.08 Apr 13th East Penn D I Mens Conferences
113 West Chester Loss 6-10 879.8 Apr 13th East Penn D I Mens Conferences
96 Lehigh Loss 9-13 1046.05 Apr 26th Ohio Valley D I College Mens Regionals 2025
218 Miami (Ohio) Win 13-7 1553.71 Apr 26th Ohio Valley D I College Mens Regionals 2025
22 Penn State** Loss 6-15 1372.46 Ignored Apr 26th Ohio Valley D I College Mens Regionals 2025
113 West Chester Loss 9-15 860.48 Apr 26th Ohio Valley D I College Mens Regionals 2025
167 Dayton Win 15-7 1791.95 Apr 27th Ohio Valley D I College Mens Regionals 2025
96 Lehigh Loss 6-13 864.61 Apr 27th Ohio Valley D I College Mens Regionals 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)