#303 Luther (8-10)

avg: 665.96  •  sd: 66.32  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
268 Michigan State-B Loss 4-10 199.33 Mar 15th Grand Rapids Invite 2025
393 Wisconsin-C Win 12-5 724.17 Mar 15th Grand Rapids Invite 2025
402 Wisconsin-Milwaukee-B** Win 15-3 602.25 Ignored Mar 15th Grand Rapids Invite 2025
340 Rose-Hulman Win 11-8 895.05 Mar 16th Grand Rapids Invite 2025
340 Rose-Hulman Win 8-4 1094.25 Mar 16th Grand Rapids Invite 2025
206 Winona State Loss 9-15 516.69 Mar 16th Grand Rapids Invite 2025
258 DePaul Loss 12-13 715.77 Mar 29th Old Capitol Open 2025
399 Iowa-B Win 13-4 678.49 Mar 29th Old Capitol Open 2025
313 Washington University-B Win 10-6 1122.53 Mar 29th Old Capitol Open 2025
399 Iowa-B Win 9-4 678.49 Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2025
313 Washington University-B Win 7-6 751.37 Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2025
158 Grinnell Loss 10-12 982.06 Apr 12th West Plains D III Mens Conferences 2025
60 Carleton College-CHOP** Loss 5-15 1046.37 Ignored Apr 26th North Central D III College Mens Regionals 2025
158 Grinnell Loss 9-14 746.32 Apr 26th North Central D III College Mens Regionals 2025
151 Macalester Loss 7-15 661.32 Apr 26th North Central D III College Mens Regionals 2025
72 St Olaf** Loss 2-15 989.88 Ignored Apr 27th North Central D III College Mens Regionals 2025
256 St Thomas Loss 8-15 284.07 Apr 27th North Central D III College Mens Regionals 2025
271 Wisconsin-Platteville Loss 7-15 195.62 Apr 27th North Central D III College Mens Regionals 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)